Chip Export Controls, Inflation, and the Fed Outlook

Allegations involving NVIDIA’s CEO have drawn scrutiny in Washington, raising the prospect of tighter chip export controls through the National Defense Authorization Act. Our hosts assess the implications for NVIDIA’s valuation and the broader market, including what a leadership change could mean for the company’s relationship with regulators.The Macrocast team also review the latest inflation data and how persistent price pressures have shifted expectations for Fed rate hikes in December. The episode closes with a preview of the APEC and G20 meetings between President Trump and President Xi.For more about the hosts, please see below.FTPMarkets Policy Partners 

With the midterms behind us, our hosts examine what a Democratic Congress means for governance and financial markets.Ed Hill opens with the incoming Congress’s immediate challenges: government funding, the National Defense Authorization Act, and a bipartisan permitting bill that House Democratic leadership has already expressed reservations about.They also look at the challenges facing the AI data center industry, particularly in Texas, where new leadership could affect permitting, and round out the show with the ECB leadership transition and Bank of England rate hikes.Divided government is here, and its effects will reach policy and portfolios alike.For more about the hosts, please see below.FTPMarkets Policy Partners 

With the midterm elections days away, our hosts examine what the results could mean for both governance and financial markets.Special guests Rick Murphy and Michael Williams of FTP open with a look at the polling trends. Democrats appear likely to take the House, while control of the Senate remains highly competitive. They discuss why rural voter turnout and candidate quality could be the deciding factors, and debate how much charisma, or “rizz,” shapes modern campaigns. They also consider what a divided government would mean in practice: potentially limited legislative output, with oversight likely becoming the main focus in Washington.John and Brendan then deliver a market update. The Fed held rates steady, and GDP growth was driven largely by private sector investment in AI data centers. They break down the recent volatility in AI-related stocks and the rotation toward more defensive U.S. companies.Whatever happens on Election Day, the outcome will shape policy and portfolios for years to come. Listen in for the analysis ahead of the vote, and stay with us for what comes next.For more about the hosts, please see below:FTPMarkets Policy Partners 

This week on the Macrocast, Doug Usher, PhD, an FTP partner who leads insights and data analytics, joins the team to break down the November 3rd elections. Polls currently favor Democrats, but he explains why the results could be closer than expected, given high expectations in traditionally Republican states like Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Kansas.The conversation covers how polling has shifted from phone calls to online surveys, along with focus group findings showing that skeptical voters care more about who delivers a message than what it says. Doug also discusses the shift in voter concerns from inflation to affordability and looks ahead to the 2028 presidential race.The team also reviews the markets, including oil prices rising while Treasury yields fell, a break from their usual correlation. They also cover AI stock volatility and the Fed's upcoming policy decisions.For more about the hosts, please see below:FTPMarkets Policy Partners 

This week on the Macrocast, the team breaks down a hotter-than-expected inflation report, driven largely by gasoline. They look at how higher costs are reaching consumers, why retail sales outside of gas are softening, and what it means for the Fed's October decision. The conversation also covers market volatility, a Treasury rally, and how high capital costs are weighing on AI. The team reviews mixed bank earnings, considers midterm regulatory risks for AI and data centers, and touches on Tesla's Roadster reveal before looking ahead to a quieter week for data. For more about the hosts, please see below:FTPMarkets Policy Partners 

This week on the Macrocast, CivicScience’s John Dick joins the team to discuss economic sentiment, declining optimism about personal finances, and why holiday spending plans remain strong despite consumer concerns. They also explore consumer credit trends, buy now, pay later options, and how rising interest rates are affecting major purchases.With the midterms approaching, the conversation turns to Americans’ political mood, with Ed Hill weighing in on campaign fundraising and turnout expectations. The team also covers Treasury market volatility, expectations for the Fed’s next rate hike, and recent developments in AI stocks.For more about the hosts, please see below:FTPMarkets Policy Partners CivicScience

This week on the Macrocast, the team breaks down a weaker-than-expected September jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate ticking up as the labor force expanded. They also discuss softer wage growth, the latest PCE inflation data, and why markets have pulled back expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike.With the midterms approaching, the conversation turns to the policy issues likely to shape the months ahead. The team covers energy-market uncertainty and the potential consequences of a U.S. crude oil export ban, pressure in European debt markets, and recent movement on Capitol Hill around permitting reform and college sports legislation.For more about the hosts, please see below:FTPMarkets Policy Partners 

This week, the Macrocast team examines renewed turbulence in the Treasury market as longer-term yields climb amid stronger economic data, persistent inflation concerns, weak auction demand, and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. John, Brendan, and Ed Hill unpack what is driving the latest move in rates and what it could mean for markets.The team also turns to the Trump-Xi summit, the outlook for energy markets, and growing geopolitical risks. They discuss the latest developments in U.S.-China relations, the continued momentum behind AI-related stocks, and the economic and policy developments to watch in the weeks ahead.For more about the hosts, please see below:FTPMarkets Policy Partners 

The Fed raised rates again, but the bigger story may be what comes next. Trevor from FTP fills in for Ed this week to break down the latest data, the pressure building around the October meeting, and why markets are watching every signal from Washington.The team also looks at the economic trouble brewing overseas, from China’s slowdown and property-market struggles to trade tensions with China and Canada. It is a fast-moving week for the global economy, and the Macrocast has the context behind the headlines.For more about the hosts, please see below:FTPMarkets Policy Partners 

This week, the Macrocast team is joined by frequent contributor John Dick of CivicScience to take the pulse of the U.S. consumer heading into the fall. The latest Economic Sentiment Index showed only a slight improvement, reflecting a consumer who is still unsettled. Americans feel conflicted about their own finances and the job market but remain downbeat on the broader economy. With inflation still weighing on household budgets, caution is creeping into decisions around major purchases, investments, and financial security.The team also breaks down the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the Federal Reserve’s next move. They dig into the Treasury’s proposed bond buyback program and what it could signal for Washington’s fiscal posture and the national debt. The episode closes with a look at central-bank developments in Europe and Japan.For more about the hosts, please see below:FTPMarkets Policy Partners CivicScience