The Fed’s evolving data diet

Thanks to a strong stock market and record home prices, asset owners are feeling richer, even if it’s only on paper. Today, we get into the “wealth effect” and how it may play out in the presidential election. Also: Higher prices slow Procter & Gamble sales, the “catastrophic” halt to a Baltimore port business, and why companies change the metrics they report to investors.

In the 1990s, companies that hoped to change the world using newfangled computer technology took off. Wall Street invested in some of them big time, and their stock market valuations ballooned before they showed evidence of delivering on their promises. Sound familiar? In this episode, a cautionary tale for the era of AI. Plus, film jobs leave L.A. and New York, Netflix doubles down on video game investments and small businesses’ pricing power is kinda lumpy.

Today, President Joe Biden called for tariffs to be tripled on certain Chinese steel and aluminum products. These tariffs, first implemented by then-President Donald Trump in 2018, are now the latest move in the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Plus, sky-high car insurance premiums, the government’s latest energy-efficiency standards and China’s shrinking wine market. 

The International Monetary Fund reported today that the global economy has shown “remarkable resilience” and that growth is expected to hold steady at 3.2% this year. But that’s low by historical standards. Plus, why there’s weaker demand for Treasurys, how restaurant chains scout locations and why Warner Bros. is shelving “Coyote vs. Acme.” Beep beep!

The economy has historically been a major factor in election forecasting. But right now, the economy is kinda all over the place. In this episode, how some experts are adjusting their models to account for increased polarization and others are throwing in the towel. Plus, more guessing games: Will BYD crush Tesla? Should firms make big deals before inflation cools? And wait — when am I scheduled to work?

As more cities and states debate abolishing subminimum wages for tipped workers, we’re keeping an eye on Washington, D.C., where the tip credit system is being phased out. Though food service staff shrunk last year, some current servers say their paychecks are much more stable. Plus, corporate defaults climb and the cost of Asian imports falls as the cost of goods from Mexico increases.

Like a choreographed dance, central banks usually move together in managing interest rates. But with a high U.S. inflation reading in March, other banks might cut rates before the Fed. The European Central Bank is closer to its target and has signaled a cut in June. Plus, West Texas natural gas extractors are paying to get rid of their excess, colleges are hiring managers to help athletes get name, image and likeness deals, and a complicated insurance tactic is raising patients’ out-of-pocket costs.

Inflation is hotter than anticipated, according to today’s consumer price index. Electricity, for instance, cost 5% more year over year. And in the coming months, demand for electricity is expected to grow — scientists predict this summer is gonna be a hot one. In this episode, an air conditioning price forecast. Plus, the lone busy cargo facility in Baltimore, country music’s Black influences and an economic fortuneteller that’s always changing its mind.

Curious about which way the global economy’s headed? Take a look at copper prices. Demand for the metal is soaring, and copper futures are now at the highest levels in almost two years. Also in this episode: $10 billion. That’s how much Blackstone’s paying to acquire luxury apartment owner AIR Communities. Plus, the impact of a federal shutdown on tribal nations and the latest for a seller of records and comics in Jackson, Mississippi.

There have been mixed messages on interest rate cuts, and that uncertainty is weighing on consumers. As the Federal Reserve continues its effort to bring inflation down to 2%, economists watch how consumers interpret that kind of messaging and what their expectations are. Also in this episode: Black unemployment spikes, the impact of cyberattacks on small businesses and the growing use of psychometric assessments for job seekers.