Playing an economic guessing game

People with certain federal student loans have until Tuesday to consolidate them and qualify for debt cancellation. The Department of Education is reviewing over 40 million loan accounts and issuing credit for past payments that previously didn’t count toward forgiveness. Also in this episode: a look at the latest inflation reading, Americans’ savings habits and pop-up coworking spaces.

Gross domestic product grew by 1.6% in the first quarter, slower than expected after the six-quarter steak of 2% growth or more. How will the Federal Reserve respond to this data when making its next interest rate decision? Also in this episode: The new deep-water channel helping cargo ships leave the Port of Baltimore, protecting trade secrets with noncompete agreements, and the struggling pneumatic tube business gets a boost from the cannabis industry.

Today, President Joe Biden took a decisive step by signing a bill that could ban TikTok in the U.S. unless its Chinese owner, ByteDance, divests from the company within nine months. This move echoes a long history of limiting foreign ownership of communications companies, dating back to the founding of this country. Also in this episode: Boeing’s financial woes, the NBA’s media bidding war and New England’s free college frenzy.

Expand, slow down, contract and recover. Businesses tend to make decisions based on what stage of the business cycle the economy’s in. The problem is, that doesn’t work so well anymore. We’ll get into it. Also: The hot U.S. dollar causes trouble overseas, college grad unemployment is up, and what other food programs can learn from WIC.

Many states are making it easier for homeowners to subdivide their single-family lots. But those with space to spare may not know how to develop it. Now, new companies are offering cash for the land. Also: Profits are up, but probably not because of “greedflation,” and federal grants aim to get solar panels on low-income families’ roofs.

Thanks to a strong stock market and record home prices, asset owners are feeling richer, even if it’s only on paper. Today, we get into the “wealth effect” and how it may play out in the presidential election. Also: Higher prices slow Procter & Gamble sales, the “catastrophic” halt to a Baltimore port business, and why companies change the metrics they report to investors.

In the 1990s, companies that hoped to change the world using newfangled computer technology took off. Wall Street invested in some of them big time, and their stock market valuations ballooned before they showed evidence of delivering on their promises. Sound familiar? In this episode, a cautionary tale for the era of AI. Plus, film jobs leave L.A. and New York, Netflix doubles down on video game investments and small businesses’ pricing power is kinda lumpy.

Today, President Joe Biden called for tariffs to be tripled on certain Chinese steel and aluminum products. These tariffs, first implemented by then-President Donald Trump in 2018, are now the latest move in the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Plus, sky-high car insurance premiums, the government’s latest energy-efficiency standards and China’s shrinking wine market. 

The International Monetary Fund reported today that the global economy has shown “remarkable resilience” and that growth is expected to hold steady at 3.2% this year. But that’s low by historical standards. Plus, why there’s weaker demand for Treasurys, how restaurant chains scout locations and why Warner Bros. is shelving “Coyote vs. Acme.” Beep beep!

The economy has historically been a major factor in election forecasting. But right now, the economy is kinda all over the place. In this episode, how some experts are adjusting their models to account for increased polarization and others are throwing in the towel. Plus, more guessing games: Will BYD crush Tesla? Should firms make big deals before inflation cools? And wait — when am I scheduled to work?