The Long War Doctrine: Gen. Mick Ryan

Michael is joined by retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan to examine frontline developments in Israel and Ukraine, as well as the rapidly evolving nature of modern warfare. Fresh off a research trip to Israel, General Ryan details the IDF's shift toward an enduring, lower-tempo security posture in Gaza alongside emerging operational threats like Hezbollah's fiber-optic drones. He also dissects the operational breakthrough of Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi, the strategic realities behind Starlink reliance, and why tactical sensor coverage does not equate to a truly "transparent battlefield."

Former Jerusalem Post Editor-in-Chief Yaakov Katz returns to NatSec Matters to break down the surprise results of the Israeli elections, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party defied pre-election polling to emerge as the largest faction. Yaakov explains to Michael how deep-seated tribal loyalties and a late campaign surge centered on the existential threats of Iran and international sanctions propelled Netanyahu ahead of Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc. Despite Likud's strong showing, neither major bloc secured a clear 61-seat majority, leaving the Knesset paralyzed amid unprecedented turnout and historic seat gains by Arab parties. Yaakov maps out the narrow paths forward—ranging from a fragile caretaker government rolling into another snap election to a broad centrist unity coalition that would require major compromises on Haredi conscription and an October 7 commission of inquiry.

Michael is joined by European defense expert Nico Lange to analyze the state of European politics, troubled transatlantic relations, and the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran. Nico—a senior fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and the Munich Security Conference, as well as the founder and director of the Institute for Risk Analysis and International Security (IRIS)—critiques U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff's backchannel diplomacy in Moscow and explains how Ukrainian deep strikes against Russian refineries are driving talks toward a potential sectoral "energy ceasefire". He also examines domestic political strains across the continent, from Chancellor Friedrich Merz's implementation challenges in Germany to the economic vulnerabilities and political volatility gripping France. Finally, Nico assesses Europe's strategic reluctance to deploy naval power to the Middle East, growing friction with China over industrial overcapacity, and the need to counter Russia's escalating hybrid "shadow war" of sabotage across NATO's flank.

Former Jerusalem Post editor-in-chief Yaakov Katz returns to the podcast to preview Israel's upcoming elections and examine how the post–October 7 security consensus shapes the race. Yaakov dispels the belief that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's departure would suddenly reverse Israel's forward-leaning defense posture. He also unpacks key electoral dynamics for Michael—from Netanyahu leveraging national security debates and anti-Arab party rhetoric to rising public anxiety over European sanctions and Haredi conscription. Finally, Yaakov forecasts potential governing scenarios, including a narrow right-wing majority, an unprecedented centrist minority government, and the lingering prospect of another protracted political stalemate.

Michael is joined by Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute Dr. April Longley Alley to explain the sudden return to full-scale war in Yemen following a lightning Houthi offensive that seized the strategic Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint. In response to the Saudi-backed counteroffensive, the Houthis have unleashed an escalatory barrage of cross-border missile and drone strikes targeting critical Saudi oil infrastructure and Riyadh Airport. Dr. Alley explores why the Houthis act as autonomous partners of Tehran rather than mere proxies, leveraging asymmetric warfare to demand a maximalist "victor's peace" from Riyadh. She also analyzes Washington's reluctance to launch offensive airstrikes, the fractures between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over southern separatists, and why lasting deterrence requires political power-sharing rather than military force alone.

Michael is joined by Ann E. Kowalewski, Vice President at Beacon Global Strategies and Senior Fellow at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security, to discuss the outcomes and regional fallout of the latest summit between President Donald Trump and People's Republic of China (PRC) Leader Xi Jinping. Ann breaks down the core dynamic she describes as "spectacle and small potatoes"—where both leaders project an image of managed bilateral stability while quietly executing competitive economic hardening behind the scenes. She also explores how Beijing prepared for a second Trump term by sharpening its economic retaliation playbook—from critical mineral export controls to the "unreliable entity" list—and examines why symbolic fentanyl tariffs and reciprocal trade frameworks have not addressed deep-seated industrial subsidies. Ann analyzes why slow-walking Taiwan arms sale packages and softening rhetoric on China weaken deterrence across the Taiwan Strait, the strategic calculations driving Beijing's timeline, and why the burgeoning "Axis of Upheaval"—linking China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—demands a fundamental rethink of Western sanctions enforcement and economic statecraft. 

Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery and former senior CIA officer Norman Roule join Michael to assess the maritime blockade of Iran and rising friction in the Strait of Hormuz . They analyze how unprecedented economic strangulation is pressuring Tehran while testing the U.S. Navy's regional operations and global posture . Mark, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, explains how extended deployments are creating a readiness crisis that could jeopardize U.S. deterrence in late-decade flashpoints . Norman, a non-resident senior adviser with CSIS, details the regional impact of recent Houthi strikes . The three explore European allied inaction and the growing revisionist axis linking Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran . Finally, they examine what is next for two other critical geopolitical priorities: Taiwan and Ukraine .

Michael is joined by Holly Dagres, the Libitzky Family Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and editor of The Iranist, for a unique look at the internal dynamics shaping Iran amid ongoing war and economic strangulation. Holly rewinds to the December and January anti-regime uprisings that preceded the conflict, detailing the unprecedented state-led massacre of protesters and the ensuing collapse of the Iranian rial. She explains why the clerical regime's survival has radicalized a new generation of IRGC hardliners, the psychological blow dealt to ordinary Iranians by strikes on energy infrastructure, and the growing sense of abandonment felt across the country after unfulfilled promises of Western support. Holly also assesses the sustainability of Washington's naval blockade, Tehran's escalatory brinkmanship in the Persian Gulf, and what it will actually take for the Iranian public to risk returning to the streets. Additional Resources:Abdorrahman Boroumand Center Center for Human Rights in Iran

Michael is joined by Peter Rough, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute, to dissect the stalled diplomatic efforts to resolve the war between Ukraine and Russia, and the latest interventions by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. He also assesses Ukraine's persistent deep-strike campaign against Russian refineries, mounting Russian casualty rates, and the internal frictions behind Kyiv's high-level military leadership shakeup. Finally, Peter evaluates the growing threat of Russian gray-zone sabotage across Europe and examines whether allied aid and sanctions can hold the line ahead of a difficult winter. Let us know what geopolitical topic we should focus on next, get in touch at [email protected].

Michael is joined by Clay Seigle, Managing Director of Beacon Global Strategies' newly announced energy practice and former James R. Schlesinger Chair at CSIS, for an expert briefing on volatile global energy markets. Clay breaks down the economic dynamics underpinning $90-a-barrel oil, explaining how the ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, presidential messaging, and severe global refining bottlenecks are driving price fluctuations. He also analyzes the impact of Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian fuel throughput and examines the broader implications of tightening global diesel markets. Turning to the Western Hemisphere, Clay assesses the long-term feasibility and legal complexities of new U.S. investment frameworks for upgrading Venezuela's heavy sour crude resources. Finally, he highlights critical flashpoints to watch, including commercial shipping risks across the Red Sea.