Forecasting Airbnb: Where Demand, Supply, and Uncertainty Collide

In this 17-minute-and-51-second episode (because apparently that is the optimal podcast length) I challenge one of the most repeated myths in planning: S&OE covers 0–3 months, S&OP covers 3–18 months, and IBP begins after that.Those ranges may look good on an infographic, but treating them as universal rules can hurt an implementation. Your planning horizons should reflect your constraints, and, most importantly, when different decisions must be made.I explain how S&OP and S&OE work together, how decision time fences should shape each process, and how to structure planning around the realities of your business instead of someone else’s generic timeline.Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Companies spend far too much time debating which AI tools to buy and what those tools can do. They spend far less time thinking about the people expected to use them.In this episode, I sit down with Piper Martz, founder of Table Stakes Media, to call BS on some of the loudest claims surrounding AI adoption. We discuss why psychological safety matters, why leaders must be transparent about how AI will affect employees, and what happens when organizations introduce powerful technology without building trust first.AI change management is not simply a technology challenge. If people feel threatened, excluded, or misled, even the best tools will struggle to deliver results.Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

What if you could forecast demand but couldn’t build, order, or control the supply needed to meet it? A matter of fact you don’t even own your supply and have to forecast inventory as well.I sit down with Airbnb data scientist Harrison Katz, PhD, a designer of Bayesian workflows for structured forecasting, to explore the challenge of forecasting when supply depends entirely on others. We discuss uncertainty on both sides of the equation, where demand and supply planning become blurred, and how constraints, demand shaping, and probability come together. Harrison shares how he approaches these problems, how results should be measured, and even turns the tables to ask me a few tough questions.IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here https://arkieva.com/Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

We spend a lot of time worrying about AI hallucinations, but how often do humans invent patterns, explanations, and certainty that are not really there? In this episode, we explore the full gamut of human bias, from confirmation and anchoring to optimism and narrative bias. We also examine why planners can genuinely believe they see seasonality in just ten data points and what we can do to recognize and reduce bias in forecasting and decision-making. IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here https://arkieva.com/Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

You are told to go do AI without good direction. We have been there and we know the struggle.I sit down with Ashley Oien, Senior Director of Demand Planning at Rise Baking Company, to unpack lessons from a real AI transformation journey including an AI project that started with the technology and ultimately revealed that the real business problems were somewhere else.We discuss how to identify the right AI proof of concept, start with a meaningful business problem, define success before implementation, and measure real AI ROI rather than simply proving that the technology works.If you're evaluating AI for demand planning, forecasting, S&OP, or supply chain, this conversation offers practical lessons for turning AI experimentation into measurable business value.Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

The conversation around AI in supply chain planning has focused on one thing: forecast accuracy. But it doesn’t really work and what if we've been measuring the wrong outcome?In this episode I am joined by Yuqing Qu ("Joyce"), Data Scientist who leads machine learning and advanced analytics initiatives supporting supply chain optimization and enterprise decision intelligence. Together, we explore why the next evolution of AI in S&OP is moving beyond isolated forecasting models toward connected, end-to-end decision systems that integrate demand, supply, inventory, logistics, and business strategy.Yuqing also shares her unique perspective as a young data scientist on why supply chain is sexy and one of the most exciting career opportunities for the next generation. If you're a student, early-career professional, or simply curious about combining AI, analytics, and business, she offers practical advice on the skills and mindset needed to succeed.Whether you're a demand planner, supply planner, S&OP leader, data scientist, or executive, this conversation will challenge the way you think about AI and where it's taking our profession.Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

The biggest hurdle for most S&OP and business process is not AI integration, perfecting a process, or agreeing on a number, it is trust. In this episode of IBF On Demand, Eric Wilson explores one of the most overlooked drivers of business performance: trust. Why do some organizations collaborate effectively while others struggle despite having the same tools, data, and processes? Why do some teams embrace change while others resist it? Why do some forecasts become plans while others become debates?Trust influences how we share information, challenge assumptions, make decisions, handle conflict, and build consensus. It impacts every step of the planning process, yet it is rarely measured, discussed, or intentionally developed.The best planning organizations are not necessarily the ones with the most advanced technology or the most sophisticated process. They are the ones that have learned how to build trust across functions, teams, and individuals.Because at the end of the day, successful planning is not about numbers. S&OP IS A SOCIAL PROCESSSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

This may be the most important episode I’ve done on AI yet. This is my AI manifesto you need to watch!Everyone keeps saying AI is replacing jobs. Absolutely they are already, but not for the reasons most companies are telling you. This isn’t another hype-filled conversation about how your jobs are not going away but just changing or talking points written by AI itself. This is a candid discussion on where I believe our field is actually heading and what you need to know about this AI revolution.In this episode, I talk about:The real reason companies are restructuring and reducing headcountWhy AI is changing planning roles faster than most people realizeWhat demand planning, forecasting, and S&OP jobs may actually look like in the near futureThe new capabilities professionals must develop to stay relevant and valuableThe AI revolution is here. The question is whether we shape it… or let it shape us.IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here https://arkieva.com/Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Most companies think their S&OP or IBP struggles come down to process maturity, tools, or data. They’re wrong. In this episode, I sat down with Alina Davydova, Senior Manager of SIOP in Europe, to uncover the real reason global planning processes break down: cultural complexity.From how different regions make decisions… to how they collaborate… to even how they present and interpret data these hidden differences are quietly driving misalignment across global organizations. If you’ve ever wondered why your process works in one region but struggles in another, this conversation will change how you think about planning.Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Everyone is talking about AI in forecasting and planning but how many companies are actually using it?In this episode, I answer your question and break down the real number (spoiler alert it is far less than you think). More importantly, I “delve” (because that would be the word AI would tell me to use) into what the other 97% of companies are actually using to plan, forecast, and run their business. I give insights into all the models available and how and when to use each of them.Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org