Flipping Tables

A quick update from Maritsa on the future of the Grounded Podcast.

As it stands, Democrats have a 54-44 majority in the Senate, with results still pending in Alaska and Mississippi. They have 241 seats in the House and expected to gain more. Kansas is sending a Democrat to the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1932. James Talarico will be the first Democratic senator from Texas since 1988. Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected governor of any U.S. state, one of a record number of female governors voted in. And Democrats hit a new milestone with 100 women in the House. Sam Forstag is the first Democrat to take a U.S. House seat in Montana since 1994. And yes, the Montana Plan passed. Adam Klasfeld of All Rise News joins us to break down the results, what comes next from a legal standpoint, and the remarkable absence of wild claims about a rigged election. Plus, could this mean a larger turning of the page?

Three days out and we decided to continue our marathon episode run with another candidate: Justin J. Pearson, known as one of the “Tennessee Three,” who’s now running for U.S. House. Pearson tells us how the redistricting fight in the South has dramatically changed his race, what he’s hearing from Republicans and Democrats alike, and why he frames his politics as “justice rooted in love.” We also address some of the rumors circulating about Jon and the Montana Senate race… again. It’s spooky season, which means there are a lot of efforts to spread fear right now. Remember your critical thinking skills and let’s stay grounded in facts, in reason, and in this community. Happy Halloween, friends! We will be back with you Tuesday!

We are days away from ELECTION DAY and we asked our favorite election data nerd (and former Obama campaign manager + University of Montana superfan) Jim Messina to join us to break down the state of the races. And we literally go down the battleground list one by one in a psuedo-lightning round. Messina breaks down his predictions for the Senate, the House, and another category of races he thinks is commonly overlooked. “If you care about the presidential election in 2028, you actually care the most about governors' races. Governors' races are the most predictive thing about who wins the next presidential,” Messina said. “And I’ve really spent a bunch of time looking at all these. And I think there’s a chance [Democrats are] going to win every single governor’s race in every battleground state.” Messina lays out his advice for exactly what the Democrats should do first if they win control of the House and Senate. And just wait until you hear how many potential 2028 presidential candidates Jim has already met with. 🤯 Get out and vote, friends! And bring someone with you!  

There’s a whole lot of noise about threats to the midterm elections, now eight days away. We asked David Becker from the Center for Election Innovation & Research to come back and help us get grounded in logic and facts. Let’s start with the good news: Becker says we will blow past 30 million votes already cast at some point today. “The highest turnout we’ve ever had for a midterm election was in 2018, 118 million ballots cast,” Becker said. “So we’re going to blow past 25% of that eight days before the election. And still the vast majority of mail ballots haven’t come back in. No one has voted on Election Day yet. Early voting is still going on in almost all of the 47 states.” Becker notes that we saw the highest ever midterm election turnout in 2018 at 50%. He’s cautiously optimistic we will break that record this cycle, but says if we get to 53%, it would be a “tsunami.” Now to the bad news. We cover a lot of the major concerns right now, including the fears about ICE at the polls, DOJ voter-data pushes, voting machine worries, and the very real efforts to lay the groundwork to challenge the results of the election. We also talk about why Becker feels confident we will see the results certified. “I know some people are really worried when they see the federal government mobilize to interfere with our election in a way that we’ve never seen before in American history. And that’s awful,” Becker said. “We should not normalize that. It’s really bad, and it’s taken a lot of work. But on the other hand, it’s really desperate, isn’t it? It’s really kind of pathetic in a way. They’re failing at everything.” If you haven’t voted yet, make sure you have a plan! If you still have a mail-in ballot to return, it’s probably best to deliver it yourself. Eight days to go!

In the final weeks of the campaign cycle, JT has been traveling across the country stumping for candidates. He returned from Kansas last week and couldn’t quit talking about the Democratic candidate in the KS-02 House race, Don Coover, who’s also a West Point grad, Army vet, veterinarian, and rancher. Coover joined us to talk about why he jumped into politics, how tariffs are squeezing his fellow ranchers and farmers, and the massive impact ICE raids have had on his community. You had people, American citizens, afraid to go out and conduct business or travel around because they were afraid of being harassed and picked up. And so It makes a very hostile environment,” Coover said. “I think fear is incredibly contagious. I saw that in the army. And I also believe that courage is very contagious.” Plus, what’s more difficult? Calving season or campaign season? Don’t miss our live show Monday, Oct. 26 at noon eastern, when our friend David Becker from the Center for Election Innovation & Research comes back to answer all of your election questions. If there’s something specific you want us to ask him, please drop us a comment!

We didn’t mean for this episode to turn into a lesson on furries for Jon Tester, but here we are. Former Sen. Doug Jones is in a rematch against Sen. Tommy Tuberville—this time for governor of Alabama. This is a state that has voted for the Republican nominee in every presidential election going back to 1980, and which Trump won in 2024 with 64.6% of the vote. Even while we were live, Alabamians were in the chat telling us about Trump supporters in their lives who plan to vote for Doug in this race. “It’s kind of that silent majority that we’ve heard so much about in the past, that folks in this era of retribution, they don’t want to put a Doug Jones sign in their yard,” Jones said. “There’s just something that we have felt on the ground. We believe it will translate into a win. I remind people that even in a losing effort in 2020, I got more votes than any Democrats ever gotten in the history of Alabama and enough to win any governor’s race in the history of the state.” Jones point to fielding Democratic candidates for every constitutional office race for the first time since 2006, along with packed town halls he’s been hosting across the state. He lays out his plan for affordability, why he wants a one-year moratorium on data centers, and yes, his response to the wild video of Tommy Tuberville talking about furries on the Senate floor—a video Jon Tester hadn’t seen before today. Tester will join Jones, Sen. Cory Booker and Rep. Shomari C. Figures on the campaign trail in Alabama Thursday, and we hope to jump on for a short livestream as they’re on the bus. Let’s hope there are no Booker/Tester chest bumps as the bus is moving at high speeds. We have two weeks to go, friends. If you’ve voted already, great job! If you haven’t, make sure you get those ballots in. If you need to check your registration or polling place, track your ballot, or learn about what’s on your ballot, vote.org is one of many fabulous resources.

We hobbled our way through some more technical difficulties, but are grateful for another chance to talk with retired federal judge Diane Wood, who sat on the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeal. She is now one of about 60 retired federal judges who formed the Article III Coalition through Keep Our Republic. Judge Wood stresses the importance of judicial accountability, her proposal for more oversight of the Supreme Cours, and attacks on the judiciary. “It is uncharted territory, I think. There have always, as you said, been some instances of attacks on the judiciary,” Wood said. “But what’s different now is that the source of the problem seems to be the president, not some random disappointed litigant who doesn’t have good judgment. That’s new and entirely inappropriate.”

With less than four weeks until the midterms, officials across the country are preparing as the federal pressure on our election administrators ramps up. Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar, who also chairs the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State, joins us to discuss the Trump administration’s decision to shut international election observers out, the new push to seize voting machines through the Commerce Department, and what voters should do if they see any kind of meddling or intimidation at the polls. Aguilar’s primary message? “We just need people to make a plan to vote and we just need them to actually f*$&ing show up to vote.” 27 days. Let’s go.

This week, the USS Abraham Lincoln is scheduled to return to San Diego after a near-record 10+ month deployment during which we heard reports of suicide attempts, food shortages, plumbing problems, deteriorating mental health and overall abysmal conditions. “First and foremost, it's absolutely not normal,” former Secretary of the U.S. Navy Carlos Del Toro said. “And it's a disaster over there at the Pentagon, or as you may put it, Senator, it's a shit show, quite frankly. And it's very, very tragic.” Del Toro joined us to do a deep dive on the war in Iran, from deployments to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—or Strait of Trump if you go with Jon Tester’s preference. Del Toro discusses what he sees as missing strategy and where our operational readiness stands after a newly announced plan to cut 20% of U.S. military generals and admirals, a depletion of munitions, and damage to our bases in the Middle East. We also talk about potential military action in Cuba, concerns about the South China Sea, and the recent call from President Trump for Iran to attack Los Angeles or San Diego. “I wonder how the Republicans in Orange County, California are feeling right now. About their president, commander-in-chief saying basically let him drop a nuke on Los Angeles and San Diego,” Del Toro questioned. “It's not a good feeling. I don't think we've ever seen anything like this.” “This is incredible bullshit that this guy is presenting, and people are buying it,” Tester added. “People are cheering when he says we should bomb fucking Los Angeles. Are you kidding me? This is just total insanity. Total insanity.”