299: What Presidents Don't Tell You About Executive Orders and OMB

Today we dig into the hard truths of small-business innovation in defense: most startups won't sell end items—they'll be 1st– or 2nd-tier subs whose tech is embedded in a prime's system. We unpack why founders fear losing IP to primes (and why we need better mechanisms than today's SBIR handoffs), where OCONUS opportunities really exist (think F-35 supply-chain niches and vetted foreign subsidiaries—limited but real), and why talent acquisition is make-or-break. Bottom line: protect your IP, read every teaming/NDA, know when aviation or cleared work changes your risk—and recruit serious S&E horsepower if you want to matter. Key Takeaways: IP first. Most small firms will be subs; use defensible NDAs/teaming terms and SBIR data-rights to avoid handing your crown jewels to primes. OCONUS is niche. Foreign buys happen (e.g., F-35 components), but protectionist policies mean smaller budgets and tougher entry—win with differentiated tech. Talent is strategy. Deep science & engineering capability (think Caltech/MIT-level rigor) remains the decisive edge for modernization programs. Know more about the Bootcamp: https://govcongiants.org/bootcamp Learn more: https://federalhelpcenter.com/ https://govcongiants.org/ 

In this episode, we take a deep dive into how executive power really works in the U.S. government — from executive orders and OMB oversight to how federal procurement priorities shift when a new president takes office. My guest, Dr. Andy Rudalevige, one of the nation's leading scholars on the presidency, breaks down how executive orders shape policy, how OMB quietly influences every dollar that gets spent, and why civil service stability matters more than ever. We explore the tension between presidential control and congressional authority, the ripple effects of personnel cuts across agencies, and what America can learn from European models of governance. Andy also reminds us why optimism for democracy still matters — because despite division at the top, most Americans still agree more than they realize. Key Takeaways: Executive orders aren't laws — they guide the executive branch but can't override Congress, though they profoundly shape how contracts and spending unfold. OMB (Office of Management and Budget) wields enormous influence, managing budgets, regulations, and procurement policy — the real "engine room" of federal power. Civil service expertise is eroding, risking continuity and competence, but public trust in democratic ideals remains a source of resilience for America's future. Join the Bootcamp: https://govcongiants.org/bootcamp  Learn more: https://govcongiants.org/

In this episode of The Daily Windup, we dive deep into America's fiscal reality check — and it's not pretty. Federal spending is now 53% higher than before the pandemic, with annual deficits exceeding $2 trillion. The interest alone on the national debt has reached $1 trillion, surpassing the Pentagon's entire budget and soon to overtake Medicare. My guest explains why both parties are trapped in a cycle of permanent tax cuts and permanent spending, creating what economists call a "structural deficit" — a fiscal hole that's now too big to close painlessly. We explore what happens if a recession hits while the government's already drowning in debt — and who's really going to pay the price when the cuts come. Key Takeaways: Federal spending is up 53% since before the pandemic, with deficits stuck near $2 trillion a year. Interest on the debt ($1 trillion) now costs more than the Pentagon and soon Medicare — a true structural deficit. Spending cuts will hit lower-income Americans hardest, while tax extensions and interest costs keep the system locked in debt. Know more about the Bootcamp: https://govcongiants.org/bootcamp Learn more: https://federalhelpcenter.com/ https://govcongiants.org/ 

In this episode of The Daily Windup, I sit down with Frank Kendall, former Secretary of the Air Force, to unpack one of the toughest challenges facing national defense today — the shrinking U.S. industrial base. Frank explains how, after two decades of decline, the U.S. no longer has the production capacity or lead times to meet urgent wartime demand. We've seen this shortage firsthand in the fight against ISIS and again during the Ukraine conflict, where the U.S. struggled to produce enough munitions fast enough. Frank shares how risk management, not "infinite budgets," must guide rebuilding efforts — and how small and mid-sized government contractors can align themselves with Air Force modernization goals through partnerships with futures and technology development commands. Key Takeaways: The U.S. defense industrial base has been shrinking for 20+ years, leaving critical capacity gaps in wartime. Building for "war-level demand" is financially impossible — smart risk-based investments are essential. Small and mid-sized contractors should connect with Air Force's Integrated Capabilities Command and Technology Development Office to align with future opportunities. Know more about the Bootcamp: https://govcongiants.org/bootcamp Learn more: https://federalhelpcenter.com/ https://govcongiants.org/ 

In today's episode of The Daily Windup, we break down what the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book is really saying — and why it's sending a chilling warning most investors are ignoring. According to the Fed's own field reports, economic activity has "declined slightly" across three-quarters of the U.S., with only a handful of districts showing modest growth. The tone of this Beige Book is weaker than December 2007 — the start of the Great Recession. Even the Fed's internal staff now estimates a 50% chance of recession, while the market continues to price in 0% risk. In short: the data is flashing red, but Wall Street's acting like it's business as usual. Key Takeaways: The Fed's Beige Book reveals that ¾ of the U.S. economy is stagnating or contracting in real time. The report's tone is weaker than the Beige Book from the start of the 2008 crisis. Even the Fed staff pegs recession odds at 50%, yet the market is still pricing in zero risk. Know more about the Bootcamp: https://govcongiants.org/bootcamp Learn more: https://federalhelpcenter.com/ https://govcongiants.org/ 

In this episode, I sit down with Frank Kendall and talk about one of the biggest traps in defense procurement — the endless search for "acquisition magic." Frank exposes why every few years, someone promises a revolutionary new system to fix everything — and why those reforms almost always fail. From $30 billion MRAP programs that saved lives but were later abandoned, to R&D overruns averaging 25%, he lays out a brutally honest framework for how the government should manage risk, cost, and speed the right way. Key Takeaways: There's no such thing as acquisition magic — sustainable improvement comes from training, data, and risk management. The MRAP program cost $30B but proved that taking calculated risk can save lives when done strategically. Defense R&D programs average 25% overruns — but smart leadership can bring that down to 10% without killing innovation. Join the Bootcamp: https://govcongiants.org/bootcamp  Learn more: https://federalhelpcenter.com/ https://govcongiants.org/ 

Today I sit down with insurance expert Wes to demystify the policies every government contractor needs but few truly understand. We cover why a General Liability (GL) policy typically includes attorney fees (if you notify the carrier before hiring your own lawyer), why a certificate ≠ the policy, how exclusions (like aviation work) can leave you exposed, and how audits can trigger surprise bills if you don't price insurance into bids. Real numbers, real stakes: a threatened $700,000 suit that settled for $5,000 (I paid a $2,000 deductible), a $240,000 aircraft damage claim denied under standard GL, audits demanding $15,000 after higher-than-estimated revenue, and cyber "social engineering" fraud that many policies only cover (often up to $250,000) if you phone-verify wire changes. We also hit W-2 vs. 1099 pitfalls, multi-state workers' comp, and why many policies run 400+ pages—so get a second opinion before you sign or bid. Key Takeaways: Notify your carrier first. GL often supplies the attorney and covers fees; hiring your own lawyer first can void coverage. Match policy to scope. Aviation work needs aviation liability; add states for workers' comp; price insurance into bids to avoid audit shocks. Harden the basics. Have your agent review contracts + operations + full policies (not the certificate); add cyber/EPLI and follow phone-verification for wires. Learn more: https://govcongiants.org/ Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/wes-edison/

In this episode of The Daily Windup, we dig into one of the biggest myths floating around right now — that the U.S. economy has somehow become recession-proof. Despite headlines saying everything's fine, the hard data tells a different story: real GDP has dropped in two of the last three months, growth has fallen from 3.2% to just 1.3%, and both soft and hard data are flashing warning signs. Yet, the market's still acting like the party never ends. We break down what the Fed's Beige Book reveals, why the numbers don't lie, and what every business owner and government contractor should be preparing for right now. Key Takeaways: GDP growth has fallen from 3.2% to 1.3%, showing the economy is slowing — not stabilizing. Soft data is finally morphing into hard data weakness, signaling a potential recession ahead. The Fed's Beige Book is a must-read for anyone tracking real economic health across sectors. Learn more: https://federalhelpcenter.com/ https://govcongiants.org/ 

In this episode, I talk with Frank Kendall, former Secretary of the Air Force, about how artificial intelligence is reshaping defense and government contracting at lightning speed. Frank explains why AI isn't just a buzzword—it's "software that works"—and why the government must learn to be a smart customer, not a slow gatekeeper. We also break down how large language models like ChatGPT are driving a second wave of transformation, creating both massive opportunities and serious risks around bias, human control, and infrastructure strain as electricity demand surges to power this revolution. Key Takeaways: The next wave of AI, powered by large language models, is redefining how defense and government contracting operate. $100s of billions in AI-related contracts are on the horizon, but speed without oversight risks bias and control issues. The Air Force's 700,000-person, $170B enterprise depends on adapting to AI faster than adversaries like China. Learn more: https://federalhelpcenter.com/ https://govcongiants.org/ 

In this episode, I dive into one of the most perplexing financial phenomena of 2025 — the S&P 500's explosive rally to new all-time highs. Despite no rate cuts, no fiscal stimulus, and no major breakthroughs, the market has surged more than expected — a "four sigma event" that's occurred only 0.4% of the time in the past 35 years. We break down how psychology, not fundamentals, is fueling this run — a blend of greed, fear, and herd mentality that could set the stage for a painful day of reckoning when reality hits. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500's rally is a four standard deviation event — statistically almost impossible. Markets are being driven by emotion, not fundamentals, as fear turns into unchecked greed. Without fiscal stimulus or Fed cuts, this could be a short-lived rally before a major correction. Learn more: https://federalhelpcenter.com/ https://govcongiants.org/