283: 50% Recession Odds According to the FED?! What It Means for Government Contracts

In this episode, David Rosenberg delivers a compelling analysis of the surprising strength in the S&P 500—despite fading “tail risks” like trade wars, Middle East conflict, and fiscal cliffs—and reveals that the current price/earnings multiple reaching 22–23 represents a historic 4σ event. He firmly argues that the rally is driven by market psychology and animal spirits, with fundamentals like GDP, which has fallen from 3.2% to 1.3%, and regional Fed “Beige Book” data signaling contraction—hardly typical signals for a sustained bull run. Rosenberg warns that with recession odds now at 50% (per Fed staff), the markets remain dangerously complacent. Rosenberg also delves into fiscal sustainability and the looming risk to government contracting: federal spending has ballooned 53% since pre-pandemic, deficits hover around $2 trillion per year, and interest payments near $1 trillion—surpassing defense costs and crowding out future budgets. He emphasizes liquidity as the critical lifeline for entrepreneurs, especially small businesses reliant on debt, advising focused diversification into safe-haven sectors like utilities, consumer staples, defense and health care, while stressing the importance of coding and econometric skills for young professionals navigating economic uncertainty. Website: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/ Linkedin: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/david-rosenberg-40800219b  Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/RosenbergResearch 

In this episode of The Daily Windup, we meet a successful entrepreneur who shares her journey of starting a business while being an active-duty military spouse. She candidly discusses her initial doubts and fears about entrepreneurship but reveals how her passion for the entrepreneur space eventually led her to take the plunge. Our guest discusses her meticulous approach to learning about the different programs for small businesses, such as hub zone and service-disabled certifications. As a project management professional, she applied her skills to create a detailed project plan for her entrepreneurial venture, covering everything from identifying her resources, external dependencies, and cost considerations. This strategic planning allowed her to make progress even in the face of uncertainty and the constraints of military life. Join us as we delve into her inspiring journey of exploring options, peeling back layers of questions, and taking meaningful actions to achieve her goals in the entrepreneurial world. Her story is a testament to the power of determination and adaptability, making this episode a must-listen for aspiring entrepreneurs looking to embark on their own ventures. Tune in tomorrow for another episode of The Daily Windup!

In this episode of the Daily Windup, join us as we dive into the inspiring journey of architects and entrepreneurs, Daphne and Jose. The couple recounts the pivotal moments that led them to establish their own architectural firm, sharing candid anecdotes of risk-taking and determination. Daphne vividly remembers the moment she faced a career crossroads, with a laid-off position and a young child to care for. She reveals how a leap of faith from a client, Ed Hanna, gave her the opportunity to kick-start her business in a profound way, initiating her journey into the world of entrepreneurship. From the challenges of launching a venture with minimal resources to securing significant contracts with prestigious clients like American Airlines, the duo reflects on the early days filled with sleepless nights and relentless dedication. Jose, while navigating his own job, came to support Daphne as their firm began to flourish. Their joint determination, coupled with a fear of failure, drove them to surpass their initial obstacles. Tune in to this episode to discover the power of taking the plunge, learning on the fly, and building a successful business from the ground up.

In today's episode, we dive into the intricate world of government contracts and the surprising challenges faced by companies trying to make their mark in this space. Our guest, Adam Lasky, a seasoned government contracts attorney at Seyfarth Shaw LLP, takes us through the maze of regulations and common misconceptions that entrepreneurs often stumble upon. Adam brings to light the misconception surrounding creating new entities for federal contracting. It's not as simple as it seems. Affiliation and size calculations are critical factors that many businesses overlook. Our guest emphasizes how often construction companies, in particular, set up separate entities without fully grasping the affiliation rules. He walks us through the complexities of status-based designations like 8(a) or SDVOSB, and how these don't automatically carry over to subsidiaries. Adam also sheds light on the unique role of the Small Business Administration (SBA), which stands out as an agency willing to provide valuable guidance amidst a sea of complex government regulations. Join us for this informative episode where we break down the challenges faced by businesses stepping into the government contracting arena. 

On today's episode of The Daily Windup, our guest shares insights on the shortage of subcontractors, leading to difficulties in finding reliable suppliers for projects, especially in certain regions like South Florida. We discuss the impact of subcontractor performance on projects and explore strategies for handling escalating costs in government contracts. Negotiating fair prices and creating a level playing field for subcontractors are essential considerations. We also explore how to build the capacity of small businesses to handle larger and more complex projects and the importance of upfront conversations with stakeholders to avoid surprises. Lastly, we touch on the significance of timely payments to small businesses for a smooth workflow and project success. Join us as we uncover valuable lessons and actionable steps from our guest's experiences. Remember, The Daily Windup is all about 10 minutes of action with zero time wasted. Tune in tomorrow for more exciting insights and success stories from the world of entrepreneurship. Stay inspired and stay tuned!

You ever felt like the rules of government contracting change before you can even understand them? In this episode, I sat down with Emily Murphy—former GSA Administrator and current head of Government Procurement Strategies—to break down everything you need to know about the FAR Rewrite and how it impacts small businesses, AI, commercial solutions, and contract consolidation. We’re talking about sweeping changes being implemented within 24 hours, missing references to small businesses in key parts of the FAR (yes, even the Rule of Two!), and the major shift toward modular IT procurement and AI oversight. If you think the FAR rewrite is just another bureaucratic update, think again. Emily didn’t just drop buzzwords—she revealed why small businesses might be squeezed out if they're not proactive, how a $10K change in micro-purchase thresholds could save $30M, and what this means for the future of contracting officers, procurement strategies, and vendor access. We also dove into the executive orders pushing these changes, what consolidation under GSA means for your pipeline, and why contracting delays are costing your business more than you think. This is essential listening for every BD lead, small business owner, or contractor trying to survive FY25. Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/zpvM1bU269Y Emily's Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/emilywebstermurphy/  Acquisition Website: https://www.acquisition.gov/  For trusted government contract financing, visit encoregov.com. To level up your skills, watch free trainings and connect with our expert coaches at federalhelpcenter.com.

In this episode of The Daily Windup, Eric Coffie introduces us to a former corporate professional, Yolanda Clarke who struggled to find their place in the competitive job market despite multiple degrees and valuable experience. Yolanda, shares her journey of constantly fighting to reach the elusive "middle" in their career. She discuss the challenges of seeking opportunities in the defense industry and the difficulties faced by military spouses in finding stable employment. She reveals how a pivotal moment in her life led them to make a bold decision to pursue a different path. She eventually found their purpose in a venture related to the Powder River Basin, a significant geographical feature from their hometown in Wyoming. The episode touches upon the origin of the venture's name and the personal connection that drives her entrepreneurial pursuit. The interview concludes with a light-hearted discussion about their destination wedding in Sanibel and the contrast between Florida's warmth and Wyoming's freezing temperatures. Tune in now!

In this episode of The Daily Windup we delve into the crucial but often overlooked aspect of pricing in contracting. Our guest, a seasoned contractor, shares his experiences of working with small businesses and the constant queries they receive about pricing jobs. He also emphasizes the importance of asking the right pricing questions and how it can make or break a contract. Recounting their journey of learning the intricacies of pricing, including the mistakes made along the way, and the need to unlearn certain misconceptions from their time in a large business. The episode provides insights into determining wrap rates, overhead, and profit, and the importance of conducting thorough market research to negotiate rates effectively. Listeners gain valuable advice on setting milestones for success and the significance of real costs when securing initial contracts. Join us tomorrow for another enlightening episode of The Daily Windup.

In this episode of The Daily Windup, we delve into the crucial role of the New York State Department of Labor and its significance in protecting workers and small businesses alike. Our guest, a former New York State Labor Inspector General, shares invaluable insights gained from 12 years in government service. We explore the origins of the Department of Labor, which was formed as a response to the tragic Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire, and how it continues to advocate for the rights and safety of workers. Our guest highlights the various aspects of their work, including overseeing civil and criminal investigations, internal audits, and government contracting. Certified payroll procedures are discussed, emphasizing the importance of accuracy and adherence to prevailing wage rates. We learn about common issues faced by businesses, such as misclassifications and wage discrepancies, which can lead to significant liabilities. Tune in for essential tips on safeguarding your business and ensuring compliance with labor laws. Protecting workers and supporting small businesses go hand in hand, and this episode provides valuable knowledge to entrepreneurs navigating the complex landscape of labor regulations in New York State. Join us for this eye-opening conversation on The Daily Windup!

In today's episode of the Daily Windup, we dive into the world of government contracts and how startups can navigate this complex landscape. Our speakers discuss the importance of FedRAMP certification and how it can open doors for small businesses. They share valuable advice on building a track record and finding the right niche to deliver value to government agencies. Our guest, an experienced entrepreneur, shares the story of how they secured their first government contract and the valuable lessons they learned along the way. From dealing with pricing challenges to overcoming the initial hurdles of being a new player in the market, this episode provides invaluable insights for startups seeking to make their mark in the government space. So, tune in to learn from the experiences of seasoned entrepreneurs and discover the keys to success when it comes to breaking into government contracts. Brought to you by alchemy gov - When Connections Matter Most.