Ep. 167 — Rafah red lines

Bill is joined by his FDD colleague and GJ regular David Daoud for an update on Israel’s skirmish with Hezbollah at its northern border. 

The botched U.S. withdrawal in 2021 left behind a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan with al-Qaeda running training camps using abandoned American military equipment. Terrorism confined by the borders of Afghanistan until history repeats itself and it isn’t. Luckily, a major resistance movement is taking shape in Afghanistan and attempting to organize against the Taliban.To learn about three groups that have emerged at the forefront Bill is joined by Will Selber, retired Middle East Foreign Area Officer with multiple deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan.They discuss who’s who in the resistance, which groups could be effective enough to take the fight to the Taliban (and which should sit it out), the work ahead and what they need for success — including unification. 

Bill and Behnam catch up on new Houthi activity, reports of the Iranian regime leveraging criminal groups in Sweden to target Israeli and Jewish interests, and an update on the most expensive piece of performance art in history, the floating humanitarian aid pier in Gaza.

Bill and Behnam discuss the helicopter crash in northern Iran that killed multiple regime officials, chief among them Ebrahim Raisi who was President of the Islamic Republic and a top contender to be the next Supreme Leader. Was it an accident?Given the Islamic Republic’s constitutional mandate that elections be held to replace Raisi, who might be the next president? What does the president even do? What will it mean for Iran’s foreign and security policyThey also revisit Raisi’s history in the regime or as Behnam calls it, “failing up.” From being the youngest hand-picked by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to head the infamous “death commission” and implement fatwas issued by the then-Supreme Leader to his days as a hanging judge and heading the judiciary, the “Butcher of Tehran” had a lot of blood on his hands.

Bill is joined again by our most special guest, Long War Journal/Generation Jihad OG and now senior fellow at Just Security Thomas Joscelyn, to unpack another marathon, closed-door HFAC testimony. This time, the more than 200 pages of testimony they sifted through is from General Miller, the top U.S. general in Afghanistan during the botched withdrawal. They discuss testimony highlights, including when Gen. Miller throws shade at Bill and Tom but in the same breath admits that “they had it right.”

Bill and Joe catch up on the last few days of headlines, including the helicopter crash that killed the Iranian president and foreign minister and whether this will impact Israel’s defensive war in Gaza; the International Criminal Court’s issuing of arrest warrants for Hamas leaders in addition to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant; the situation in Rafah; an airstrike in the West Bank; and Israel recovering the bodies of four hostages.

Bill and Behnam catch up on the latest round of American ambivalence in the face of vessels harassed, allies shot at, and drones dropping from the sky in addition to other headlines related to the Islamic Republic this week, including the regime’s willingness to share information concerning its nuclear advancements and a former IRGC commander with loose lips gave a precise breakdown of every single type of drone and missile fired at Israel last month.

Bill is joined by Long War Journal regular and long-time friend of the show Edmund Fitton-Brown to talk about the Houthis. If you're here, you've heard of them — but how much do you actually know about them? What is their relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran? Why are they in Yemen? Edmund previously served as the United Kingdom's Ambassador to Yemen, a role which required him to negotiate and spend a significant amount of time in close quarters with Houthi leaders. He details some of his interactions with them and how the experience shapes his understanding of the region today.

Bill and Joe discuss the current low lows of U.S.-Israel relations as Israel prepares to proceed with finishing its stated goal of defeating Hamas without the blessing of its closest ally.

Israel’s operation in Rafah officially underway and met with the threat of pausing military aid from the Biden administration. Bill and Behnam discuss the potential consequences and ripple effects.