Episode 498: Russia’s Biggest Strike Yet—What’s Next for Ukraine and the U.S.?

Today, Morgan, Martha, and Bishop break down Israel’s dramatic strike on Hamas officials in Doha, part of Operation Summit of Fire. The attack killed five Hamas leaders—including the son of senior figure Khalil al-Hayya, though al-Hayya himself survived—and has sparked outrage in Qatar, a key U.S. partner and major host of CENTCOM operations. The Trump administration reportedly received little advance notice, raising questions about coordination and accountability.What does this escalation mean for Israel’s war in Gaza and the broader Middle East? Does striking so openly in a U.S. ally’s capital mark a dangerous new precedent—or simply reinforce the longstanding message that those who threaten Israel will be hunted down? How will this affect hostage negotiations, U.S.–Qatar relations, and the fragile path toward a potential ceasefire?Check out these sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions: https://apnews.com/article/qatar-explosion-doha-e319dd51b170161372442831a8023db5 @morganlroach@marthamillerdc@bishopgarrisonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!#podcast #NationalSecurity #NatSec We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/R6NJ848xDC4 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Morgan, and Jess discuss Russia’s most massive aerial strike since the start of the full-scale invasion—an onslaught of over 800 Shahed drones, plus ballistic and cruise missiles. For the first time, Moscow hit Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers building, alongside devastating strikes on civilian areas. President Trump, signaling frustration, pledged to speak with Vladimir Putin soon as his team weighs a “phase two” sanctions package targeting Russian oil revenues and potentially punishing foreign buyers. Despite summits and talk of diplomacy, there is still no ceasefire framework or serious negotiations in sight.What does Russia’s choice of targets reveal about its strategy at this stage of the war? How effective could a new round of U.S. and European sanctions be in pressuring Moscow? And with no diplomatic momentum, what options remain for Washington and Kyiv to shift the trajectory of the conflict?Check out these sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/02/congress-pulls-the-rug-on-u-s-plan-to-beat-huawei-00527620https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/04/world/asia/china-hack-salt-typhoon.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleSharehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/23/cisa-cyberattacks-china-doge-cuts/ @marthamillerdc@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!#podcast #NationalSecurity #NatSec We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/RDSCYp3jJl4  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Martha, Morgan, and Algene break down Salt Typhoon — a  years-long Chinese cyber campaign that impacted 80 countries, targeted U.S. telecommunications firms, and compromised millions of people, including political leaders and even National Guard systems. A new multinational report links the operation to three Chinese firms tied to Beijing’s military services, underscoring the scale of China’s push to dominate the global cyber domain even as the U.S. cuts cyber budgets.How much damage did Salt Typhoon really do, and why should Americans care? Will Congress step up to strengthen U.S. cyber defenses? And why is Washington pulling back at the very moment that Beijing is doubling down on cyber operations?Check out these sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/02/congress-pulls-the-rug-on-u-s-plan-to-beat-huawei-00527620https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/04/world/asia/china-hack-salt-typhoon.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleSharehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/23/cisa-cyberattacks-china-doge-cuts/ @marthamillerdc@morganlroach@NotTVJessJones@AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/73tIjXQtUA0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, Morgan, and Jess break down Israel’s strike on senior Houthi leaders in Yemen—a dramatic escalation in the conflict that has seen the Houthis effectively declare war on the Red Sea. Despite a U.S.-backed ceasefire in May, the group has continued to fire on international shipping, crippling global trade routes through the Suez Canal and acting as a key proxy for Iran. Israel’s strike, which killed the Houthis’ prime minister, foreign minister, and senior advisers, signals a shift in tempo and a warning shot at Tehran’s allies.Does this change the long-term balance in the Red Sea, or will the Houthis adapt and keep attacking? How much leverage do Israel and the U.S. really have, given the Houthis’ resilience against years of outside strikes? And with Israel adopting what officials call the “FAFO doctrine”—short for “f— around and find out”—are we entering a new phase of deterrence?Check out these sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c620ykrxedwo https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/thousands-attend-funeral-houthi-leaders-killed-by-israeli-strike-vow-revenge-2025-09-01/ https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-hit-yemen-targets-just-hours-after-intelligence-officers-flagged-an-imminent-houthi-meeting-2eb3dd81 @LesterMunson@marthamillerdc@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/eYTr8jalrNU Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Les, and Matt unpack the rare joint appearance of Kim Jong Un, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin at Beijing’s massive September 3rd military parade—marking 80 years since Japan’s WWII surrender. The spectacle highlights a deepening alignment among China, Russia, and North Korea, even as Trump’s recent summit with Putin and potential meeting with Xi raise questions about how U.S. outreach could alter their dynamic.What are Kim, Xi, and Putin hoping to signal by appearing together? How do their competing interests—North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and China’s broader global strategy—complicate the façade of unity? And as Washington considers its next moves, can the U.S. exploit fractures amongst these countries or does the Beijing display represent a more durable front against Western power?Check out these sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions: https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/kim-and-putin-to-join-xi-in-show-of-unity-at-beijing-military-parade-98948203 https://www.npr.org/2025/08/28/g-s1-85964/north-koreas-kim-will-meet-with-xi-and-putin-at-chinese-military-parade https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx29z9g2kl2o @LesterMunson@marthamillerdc@WMattHayden Like what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/6Sd1bYhqcMI  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, and Bishop unpack South Korean President Lee’s first visit to Washington and his meeting with President Trump. The two leaders struck a warm rapport, with Trump raising ideas about engagement with North Korea and Lee casting Trump as potential peacemaker on the peninsula. But as Seoul works to balance relations with both Washington and Beijing, Trump’s out-of-the-box, business-style approach may add unpredictability to one of the world’s most sensitive regions.Will Trump’s style strengthen—or strain—the U.S.–South Korea alliance? Can engagement with Kim Jong Un move forward without a real strategy? Does Trump’s deal-making style translate into real policy, or just make for good headlines?Check out these stories that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: https://apnews.com/video/trump-repeatedly-touts-great-relationship-with-north-korean-leader-kim-jong-un-da5084139a49459cb61f6dbe5567b13a https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/08/25/trump-south-korea-president-visit/ https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy5pdlgl64zo @NotTVJessJones@LesterMunson@BishopGarrisonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/jLyczvHunH0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Bishop, and Jess unpack the surprise firing of Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, alongside other senior military leaders last Friday. Reports have linked Kruse’s ouster to the disputed assessment of U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program—where the DIA judged damage as temporary while President Trump declared Iran’s capabilities “obliterated.” The shakeups follow other recent removals at NSA, the Joint Chiefs, and even senior analysts, raising questions about politicization and the long-term health of America’s intelligence apparatus.Are these firings about accountability—or loyalty? With quiet clearance revocations and reports of reduced intel-sharing with allies, are we weakening our ability to respond to adversaries like Iran, Russia, and China? And should we give the administration the benefit of the doubt, or are these purges creating more risk than resolve?Check out these stories that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dj217z2w6o https://www.reuters.com/world/us/latest-purge-hegseth-removes-head-pentagon-intelligence-agency-other-senior-2025-08-22/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/08/22/defense-intelligence-agency-kruse-fired-hegseth/ @NotTVJessJones@LesterMunson@BishopGarrisonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/VQy33n69rqE Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, and Amy break down the U.S. deployment of three Navy destroyers off the coast of Venezuela—a move the Trump administration says is aimed at countering drug cartels and fentanyl trafficking. President Trump has also labeled Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro a “narco-terrorist,” doubled the reward for his arrest, and authorized the Pentagon to use military force against cartels, some of which his administration now classifies as terrorist organizations.Is this naval deployment about cartel crackdowns, Maduro, or something else? Does this show of naval power risk escalating tensions, or does it provide the deterrence Washington needs against drug trafficking operations? Does this move help counter China, Russia, and Iran’s growing influence in the hemisphere?Check out these stories that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-warships-venezuela-trump-nicolas-maduro-tension-drug-cartel-accusations/ https://apnews.com/article/trump-venezuela-destroyers-maduro-drug-cartels-e33794ebc24d9031e536d132ce205b4c https://www.foxnews.com/us/u-s-warships-patrol-international-waters-venezuela-trump-vows-stop-cartels@NotTVJessJones@LesterMunson@amykmitchellLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/m_OIkqBvppg Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

 Today, Les, Bishop, Marc, and Jess break down Monday’s White House meeting between President Trump, President Zelensky, and a lineup of European leaders—including Starmer, Macron, Stubb, Meloni, Mertz, von der Leyen, and Rutte. Coming just days after Trump’s Alaska summit with Putin, the gathering underscored both the importance of allied unity and the uncertainty of Trump’s approach. Unlike past tense encounters, Trump and Zelensky struck a more cordial tone, though the meeting produced few concrete outcomes.Was this “boring” but expected sit-down a sign of stability—or simply a pause before the next shock? Can Europe truly step up and lead in its own backyard, or will Ukraine once again be left holding the line alone? And as talk of U.S. air support, tougher sanctions, and security guarantees surfaces, is Trump’s instinct-driven diplomacy putting more pressure on Putin than it seems—or setting up another disappointment?@NotTVJessJones@LesterMunson@BishopGarrison@WashingtonFlackLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/AqSeI7E0ou0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Bishop, and Amy unpack the fallout from President Trump’s Alaska summit with Vladimir Putin, which ended without a ceasefire or a clear path forward in Ukraine. The tone between the two leaders was noticeably less chummy by the end of their meeting, but the summit also risked legitimizing Russia’s illegal invasion by entertaining talk of territorial concessions. Meanwhile, after another night of heavy Russian strikes, President Zelensky and Europe’s leaders are preparing to sit down with Trump — a meeting that could prove even more consequential.Did the Alaska summit achieve anything beyond giving Putin a platform? Will Europe step up with a unified plan to support Ukraine if U.S. proposals fall flat? Will Ukraine see Washington’s talk of “security guarantees” as real protection against Russian aggression?@NotTVJessJones@amykmitchell @BishopGarrisonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/PPctIh4yxDc  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.