Episode 475: Ceasefire Shattered – The Houthis Strike Again

Episode 475: Ceasefire Shattered – The Houthis Strike AgainToday, Morgan, Bishop, Jessica, and Algene discuss the return of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, just weeks after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire. The Iran-backed group has ramped up strikes on commercial ships, most recently hitting a Liberian-flagged cargo vessel with a rocket-propelled grenade and kidnapping several crew members. It’s the second ship sunk in a week – part of a broader campaign targeting nearly 70 merchant vessels since late 2023.Is the ceasefire dead, and can the U.S. restore deterrence at sea? Are the Houthis expanding Iran’s influence under the cover of the Gaza conflict? And what does this mean for global trade and regional stability?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussions: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3071vp2d8yo?utm_source=semafor Follow our experts on Twitter: @morganlroach@NotTVJessJones@BishopGarrison@AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/1QH1Y5NyeMo  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Bishop, and Amy break down the latest twist in U.S.-Ukraine policy after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth paused a critical weapons shipment — reportedly without the White House’s knowledge. The abrupt delay blindsided Ukraine, Congress, the State Department, and European allies. Days later, President Trump reversed the decision following a tense call with Putin and an escalation of Russian drone attacks on Kyiv.What does this erratic decision-making mean for Ukraine’s defense as Russia’s summer offensive approaches? Does President Trump’s growing frustration with Putin reflect a real shift in his stance? And how are allies interpreting the gap between Trump’s rhetoric and his actions?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussions: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/hegseth-halted-weapons-ukraine-military-analysis-aid-wouldnt-jeopardiz-rcna216790?oref=d_brief_nl&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20D%20Brief:%20July%2007%2C%202025&utm_term=newsletter_d1_dbrief   https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-told-zelensky-he-wasnt-responsible-for-weapons-holdup-f684444b?st=zMtutV https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/08/politics/hegseth-did-not-inform-white-house-ukraine-weapons-pause https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/07/07/trump-ukraine-weapons-shipments/ https://www.axios.com/2025/07/08/trump-putin-bullshit-sanctions-ukraine Follow our experts on Twitter: @NotTVJessJones@amykmitchell@BishopGarrisonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/n8NAy3poGZ4  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les and Jess unpack the fast-moving developments around the Trump administration’s global tariff negotiations, as the 90-day pause comes to a close this Wednesday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that tariff letters will be sent to about 100 countries this week, with either deals or formal notifications expected by July 9. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick added that Trump is personally leading many of the negotiations, applying what the administration calls “maximum pressure.” So far, only the United Kingdom, China and Vietnam have locked in deals—leaving the rest of the world guessing.Is August 1 the final deadline, or another chapter in a shifting timeline of economic brinkmanship? What are the broader implications of these tariffs for U.S. alliances and supply chains? And with Trump directly in the driver’s seat, is this smart negotiating—or strategic overreach?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussions: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/06/bessent-trump-tariffs-deadline-august-00440522https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/06/business/bessent-tariff-deadline-trump Follow our experts on Twitter: @morganlroach@lestermunson @NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/8mLhmrxZaKM  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Jess, Les, and Amy discuss a notable shift in U.S. foreign policy as the White House lifts most economic sanctions on Syria. For over a decade, those sanctions defined Syria’s economy and global isolation, aimed squarely at weakening the Assad regime during the country’s brutal civil war. But with Assad’s fall late last year and a new interim government under Ahmed al-Shara now in power, the U.S. is signaling support for stabilization and reconstruction, while maintaining targeted restrictions on individuals linked to past atrocities and terrorism.Is this a genuine turning point for Syria—or a risky bet on fragile leadership? What message does this send to allies and adversaries about the durability of U.S. sanctions? And as reconstruction begins, who gains from Syria’s reintegration—and who’s left behind?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussions: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/30/trump-scraps-syria-sanctions-regime-00433633   https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-interested-in-expanding-normalization-treaties-to-syria-lebanon-d583d184 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/30/world/middleeast/gulf-states-invest-syria-iran.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/14/syria-sanctions-caeser-act-sharaa/ Follow our experts on Twitter: @marthamillerdc@lestermunson @NotTVJessJones@amykmitchellLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/EX_q4NoqQeQ  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, and Jeffrey unpack the swirl of rumors that emerged from Beijing after Chinese President Xi Jinping disappeared from public view for several weeks in May. With whispers of internal dissent, missed Politburo meetings, and PLA shakeups, questions are mounting about the stability of Xi’s leadership—and whether the Chinese Communist Party is entering a new phase of uncertainty.As China grapples with deepening economic troubles, demographic decline, and foreign policy stumbles, speculation over leadership succession and elite discontent is running high. Is this a genuine power shift in the making—or a loyalty test typical of CCP politics? Either way, the turbulence may mark a weaker and more unpredictable chapter for Beijing.Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussions: https://nypost.com/2025/06/28/opinion/is-chinese-pres-xi-jinping-on-his-way-out/?utm_campaign=iphone_nyp&utm_source=pasteboard_app https://www.wsj.com/opinion/where-was-xi-jinping-in-irans-hour-of-need-china-strikes-israel-us-5b04fdb3 Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson @marthamillerdcLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/oGng_UKfGB8  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, and Amy unpack the implications of the U.S. shutting down Voice of America and scaling back support for Radio Free Europe—two longtime tools of American public diplomacy. As funding dries up and staff are furloughed, adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran are moving to fill the vacuum in the global information space.Is the U.S. be ceding ground in the global competition for soft power? How should the U.S. modernize its messaging tools to meet today's information challenges? What are the risks if rivals like China and Russia shape the narrative where the U.S. voice goes silent?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussions: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/business/media/us-china-russia-global-communications.html?searchResultPosition=12https://www.npr.org/2025/05/21/g-s1-68363/trump-tried-to-shutter-radio-free-europe-the-eu-threw-it-a-lifeline Follow our experts on Twitter: @NotTVJessJones@lestermunson @amykmitchellLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/ZSn_Je9V8Uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Les, and Morgan discuss NATO’s unprecedented decision to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP—a seismic shift in transatlantic security policy. Driven by escalating threats from Russia, war in Ukraine, and mounting pressure from President Trump, the alliance’s new posture marks a clear break from decades of post–Cold War complacency. With Trump demanding more from European allies while withholding a full guarantee of U.S. protection, the future of collective defense—and Europe's role–is being fundamentally rewritten.Is this a turning point for NATO or the beginning of its fragmentation? What does this spending surge really buy in terms of deterrence, and is it enough to match rising global threats? And can Europe truly step up—or is burden-sharing still more theory than reality?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussions: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_236418.htm https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gd98qry6jo https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/nato-summit-trump-solitary-approach https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-heads-nato-summit-europe-agrees-heed-his-defense-spending-demands Follow our experts on Twitter: @marthamillerdc@lestermunson @morganlroachLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/DGDfMrDkUtY  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, and Jeffrey break down Operation Midnight Hammer—the largest B-2 strike in U.S. history. Over the weekend, U.S. forces launched a major bombing campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, deploying 125 aircraft, 14 bunker-busting MOPs, and over two dozen Tomahawk missiles in a high-stakes mission aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear capabilities. While President Trump has declared victory, the fallout—military, diplomatic, and political—is only beginning.What options does Iran have now? Will it retaliate through traditional military means, ramp up proxy warfare, or strike at global infrastructure? With tensions high and the potential for escalation real, what does continued engagement look like—and are we prepared for what comes next?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Follow our experts on Twitter: @morganlroach@lestermunson Like what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/lvrwmY4fET0  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, and Jeffery discuss the latest twist in the escalating standoff between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. As speculation swirls over whether the U.S. will join Israeli strikes on Iran’s underground nuclear facility at Fordow, the White House has announced President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to intervene. That decision could involve the use of powerful U.S. bunker-busting munitions—potentially the 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator—against a fortified target only the U.S. is capable of hitting. While others jump to forecast outcomes, the Fault Lines crew focuses instead on what this moment actually means.What does the administration’s messaging signal about its strategic calculus—and red lines? How much pressure is being applied through public signaling, and how much of it is aimed at Tehran, Tel Aviv, or the American public? And with escalation already underway, how can we look to conflicts of the past to inform how we move forward? Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson @marthamillerdcLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here (and have a chance to see Bean the dog!): https://youtu.be/E4KyNG8l-cg  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Les, and Morgan discuss the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, now entering its sixth day with historic implications. The immediate trigger was a rare IAEA censure of Iran for non-compliance with nuclear safeguards—the first since 2005—but Iran and its proxy groups like Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis have been attacking Israel for years leading up to this point. President Trump has ordered a large-scale U.S. military buildup in the region and demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender, even as Tehran warns of severe retaliation.Is this the beginning of a full-scale regional war—and will U.S. forces inevitably be drawn in? How will Tehran respond to the unprecedented damage to its nuclear program and military infrastructure? Will this mark a turning point in re-establishing American deterrence?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Follow our experts on Twitter: @marthamillerdc@lestermunson @morganlroachLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/2k7BlOYABh4  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.