DSH 57 - Data and Modeling w Daniel Port

Dugout Study Hall - On The Farm's LaMar Gibson (@InsideFastball) joins Alexander Chase (@chase_rate) to talk through the need-to-know info about the MLB Draft: how the major mechanics work, why it's so unpredictable, and which players are worth following regardless of where they land. Please help us with a FIVE STAR RATING and a REVIEW wherever you listen and ENJOY! BetterHelp: Get 10% off your first month of therapy on us! BetterHelp.com/pitcherlist Subscribe: Apple | Spotify | Google | Stitcher | Amazon | TuneIn | Radio.com | Deezer Join PL+ and support the podcast, get an Ad-Free Website, and access to our Discord community! Episode outline: How is the MLB Draft different from other drafts? Why do teams intentionally pass on good players? "Moneyball," draft archetypes, and what's changed in the past two decades Druw Jones: lock for first? Termarr Johnson, Brooks Lee, and Kevin Parada: early names worth remembering Kumar Rocker headlines a depleted pitching class Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dugout Study Hall - Expert layman Matt Goodwin (@TheCorkedMatt) and fake baseball economist Alexander Chase (@chase_rate) talk about summer, Pitcher Bot's Cameron Grove and some analysis around pitch usage, which pumpkins have been good and so much more! Please help us with a FIVE STAR RATING and a REVIEW wherever you listen and ENJOY! BetterHelp: Get 10% off your first month of therapy on us! BetterHelp.com/pitcherlist Subscribe: Apple | Spotify | Google | Stitcher | Amazon | TuneIn | Radio.com | Deezer Join PL+ and support the podcast, get an Ad-Free Website, and access to our Discord community! Episode Outline: Summer plans Pitcher Bot Tweets Teams getting better at having players throw their best pitches Which teams are better at developing pitching talent Pumpkins who have been good (and will they go back to being pumpkins?) Tony Gonsolin Tyler Anderson Nick Pivetta Note: Episode recorded on 06/29/22 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dugout Study Hall - Expert layman Matt Goodwin (@TheCorkedMatt) and fake baseball economist Alexander Chase (@chase_rate) talk a whole lot about rookies including rookie fWAR, rookie buy/sell, and much more! Please help us with a FIVE STAR RATING and a REVIEW wherever you listen and ENJOY! BetterHelp: Get 10% off your first month of therapy on us! BetterHelp.com/pitcherlist Subscribe: Apple | Spotify | Google | Stitcher | Amazon | TuneIn | Radio.com | Deezer Join PL+ and support the podcast, get an Ad-Free Website, and access to our Discord community! Episode Outline: Warm-up: Oneil Cruz callup and major-league samples Opposite forces from CBA / Pandemic Have our expectations matched reality? Number of the Week: 11.1 fWAR from rookie pitchers Why have this year's pitchers had less of an impact? Case Study: Adapting on the fly Has Spencer Torkelson shown that he's learning through his tough year? Rookie targets to believe in for redraft Note: Episode recorded on 06/22/22 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dugout Study Hall - Expert layman Matt Goodwin (@TheCorkedMatt) and fake baseball economist Alexander Chase (@chase_rate) talk about the validity of intentional walks, the absurdity of Tony La Russa, and way too early All-Star banter. Help us out with a FIVE STAR RATING and a REVIEW wherever you listen and ENJOY! Go to birddogs.com and use promo code PITCHERLIST for a free Birddogs hat with your pair of Birddogs. Subscribe: Apple | Spotify | Google | Stitcher | Amazon | TuneIn | Radio.com | Deezer Join PL+ and support the podcast, get an Ad-Free Website, and access to our Discord community! Episode Outline: Warm-up: Intentional Walks When is it reasonable? Is it ever truly reasonable? What about in a 1-2 count? Number of the Week: There is no actual number What 5 All-Stars from last year's teams are still actually good? Looking at fWAR Which of last year's All-Stars have been bad? What impact can All-Star selection have on buy/sell in fantasy? Note: Episode recorded on 06/15/22 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dugout Study Hall - Fake baseball economist Alexander Chase (@chase_rate) welcomes special guest Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) to talk about differences between playoff probabilities from different sites, the Cardinals' recent history against Texas teams, and players who have forced them to change their minds so far this season. Help us out with a FIVE STAR RATING and a REVIEW wherever you listen and ENJOY! Subscribe: Apple | Spotify | Google | Stitcher | Amazon | TuneIn | Radio.com | Deezer Join PL+ and support the podcast, get an Ad-Free Website, and access to our Discord community! Episode Outline: Warm-up: Nate's recent work at PL and Cardinals fandom Numbers of the Week: Comparing FanGraphs and Fivethirtyeight playoff probabilities Case Study: what makes us change our minds, and who's made us think the most? Note: Episode recorded on 06/08/22 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dugout Study Hall - Expert layman Matt Goodwin (@TheCorkedMatt) and fake baseball economist Alexander Chase (@chase_rate) talk about Camden Yards, Would it Dong?, hitters with the best K% and impact on wRC+, and when one-category contributors are worth rostering. Help us out with a FIVE STAR RATING and a REVIEW wherever you listen and ENJOY! Go to birddogs.com and use promo code PITCHERLIST for a free Birddogs hat with your pair of Birddogs. Subscribe: Apple | Spotify | Google | Stitcher | Amazon | TuneIn | Radio.com | Deezer Join PL+ and support the podcast, get an Ad-Free Website, and access to our Discord community! Episode Outline: Warm-up: Looking at Would it Dong? and outlier home runs and "unicorns" Numbers of the Week: Lowest K% among qualified hitters and the impact on wRC+ Alexander's Monkey-Paw All-Stars: When do one-category contributors merit being rostered? Note: Episode recorded on 06/01/22 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dugout Study Hall - Expert layman Matt Goodwin (@TheCorkedMatt) and fake baseball economist Alexander Chase (@chase_rate) briefly discuss the Tim Anderson/Josh Donaldson situation, look at pitchers with the highest and lowest BABIPs against, and dive into some pitchers who have not performed as we expected, especially some of the higher ADP guys. Help us out with a FIVE STAR RATING and a REVIEW wherever you listen and ENJOY! Go to birddogs.com and use promo code PITCHERLIST for a free Birddogs hat with your pair of Birddogs. Subscribe: Apple | Spotify | Google | Stitcher | Amazon | TuneIn | Radio.com | Deezer Join PL+ and support the podcast, get an Ad-Free Website, and access to our Discord community! Timestamps: Tim Anderson/Josh Donalson situation (01:31) Numbers of the Week: BABIPs against (13:10) Interpreting BABIP (21:58) Puzzling Pitchers (29:34) Good Stuff / Bad Results Just Bad Questionable Stuff / Good Results Surprising Pitchers Doing Well (52:50) Note: Episode recorded on 05/24/22 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dugout Study Hall - Expert layman Matt Goodwin (@TheCorkedMatt) and fake baseball economist Alexander Chase (@chase_rate) talk about some random baseball things on our minds, current FIP leaders and why that’s fun but doesn’t matter, and how to use (or not use) Fangraphs dollar-value calculators in-season. Help us out with a FIVE STAR RATING and a REVIEW wherever you listen and ENJOY! Go to birddogs.com and use promo code PITCHERLIST for a free Birddogs hat with your pair of Birddogs. Subscribe: Apple | Spotify | Google | Stitcher | Amazon | TuneIn | Radio.com | Deezer Join PL+ and support the podcast, get an Ad-Free Website, and access to our Discord community! Timestamps: Our random baseball thoughts (02:38) Numbers of the Week: FIP Leaders (12:12) Fangraphs dollar-value calculators / projections (24:25) Carlos Correa Byron Buxton How can we be smart about using dollar values given discrepancies? (28:18) Are THE BAT X ROS broken because expected stats are broken? (31:22) What's under the hood to help us know which projections make sense? (36:42) Case Study: Christian Yelich (38:02) Case Study: Alec Bohm (42:14) Off the Books: Aaron Judge hates Camden Yards' new fence (53:46) Note: Episode recorded on 05/18/22 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dugout Study Hall - Expert layman Matt Goodwin (@TheCorkedMatt) and fake baseball economist Alexander Chase (@chase_rate) follow up on last episode's discussion of pitch location metrics, play a guessing game with wRC+ and MaxEV, and discuss more dead-ball impact on the normalization of certain metrics. Help us out with a FIVE STAR RATING and a REVIEW wherever you listen and ENJOY! Go to birddogs.com and use promo code PITCHERLIST for a free Birddogs hat with your pair of Birddogs. Subscribe: Apple | Spotify | Google | Stitcher | Amazon | TuneIn | Radio.com | Deezer Join PL+ and support the podcast, get an Ad-Free Website, and access to our Discord community! Timestamps: Off the Books: Follow up on pitch location metrics (01:09) Analytics: trying to win using math (09:33) Does the dead ball make pitch location more or less important? (11:49) Numbers of the Week: wRC+ and MaxEV leaders game (18:06) Dead ball impact on parks (25:04) Would it dong? (25:58) Misshapen balls (34:31) When can we trust certain metrics with the different balls? (37:39) Is Josh Naylor for real? (47:42) Talking about players (51:56) Andrew Vaughn, Joc Pederson, Gleyber Torres, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Alec Bohm, Christian Yelich Joey Gallo, Josh Donaldson, Joey Votto, Luke Voit, Akil Baddoo, Dylan Carlson, Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, Trent Grisham, Trevor Story Note: Episode recorded on 05/11/22 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dugout Study Hall - Expert layman Matt Goodwin (@TheCorkedMatt) and Pitcher List's own Daniel Port (@DanielJPort) talk about some news and notes, pitch location metrics, and data modeling. Help us out with a FIVE STAR RATING and a REVIEW wherever you listen and ENJOY! Daniel's PitchCon 2022 Presentation Go to birddogs.com and use promo code PITCHERLIST for a free Birddogs hat with your pair of Birddogs. Subscribe: Apple | Spotify | Google | Stitcher | Amazon | TuneIn | Radio.com | Deezer Join PL+ and support the podcast, get an Ad-Free Website, and access to our Discord community! Timestamps: Meet Daniel Port! (01:21) Off the Books: News and Notes (06:29) MadBum big mad over sticky stuff check Kelsie Whitmore makes history Aaron Judge: good guy Wainwright/Yadi make battery history Daniel's OLR + Other Pitch Location Metrics (24:55) Other Metrics and Data Modeling (51:15) Players mentioned: Merrill Kelly, Nestor Cortes Jr. Stats mentioned: ERA, AVG, OBP, wOBA, xBA, WAR, Correlation/Causation, Linear Models, Predictive/Baysian models Note: Episode recorded on 05/05/22 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices