DHUnplugged #736: The One-Two Punch

Trump-o-Nomics here we come. MemeCoins making s comeback - then fizzling. Pardons and Executive orders are flying. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  *** California Clean up - Some thoughts and companies... **** Warm-Up - New President - New Leadership - Pardons flying....Even preemptive ones - Another short-seller is out of biz... - Talking bout animal spirits being unlocked as President Trump take office Markets - Coins - on fire (then pull back) - Markets - Moving after last week's CPI print - MemeCoins making a comeback - Pelosi moving stocks ** Need a new symbol for the 1st CTP for 2025 PSA - Quick note - Next week's guest on TDI Podcast - Howard Lindzon - Founder of StockTwits - Follow JCD and AH on Twitter - Listen to No Agenda every week - double the pleasure on Thursdays and Sundays at 2P (ET) Inauguration - Any major takeaways? - Trump wearing a purple tie - that does not seem like an accident - Significant number of executive orders First orders of business--- Energy is key area along with DEI, TWO Genders (only), Temporary pause on China tariffs, National emergency at borders, ending EV mandates - National emergency: Borger, energy - "That national energy emergency will unlock a variety of different authorities that will enable our nation to quickly build again, to produce more natural resources, to create jobs, to create prosperity and to strengthen our nation's national security" - Opening up Alaska: "Alaska is so key for our national security, given its geostrategic location, and it's a crucial place from which we could export LNG not only to other parts of the United States, but to our friends and allies in the Asia Pacific region" - DEI -could now be DOA - Withdrawing from Paris clime agreement - - - The incoming administration plans to review and potentially end what the official described as "discriminatory programs," including environmental justice grants and diversity training initiatives. --- Retaking Panama Canal and plant a flag on Mars -- Do we want to discuss that President Trump did not put his hand on the bible as he was being sworn in? ----EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE: For this purpose, we are establishing the external revenue service to collect all tariffs, duties and revenues. It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our treasury coming from foreign sources, the American dream will soon be back and thriving like never before to restore competence and effectiveness to our federal government - Vivek Ramaswamy is out as Elon Musk’s co-leader as he is running for Governor of Ohio Pre-Emtiove Pardons - President Joe Biden on Monday issued preemptive pardons for several family members, citing concerns that they will be targeted by “baseless and politically motivated investigations.” - Biden pardoned his brother, James Biden; James’ wife, Sara Jones Biden; his younger sister, Valerie Biden Owens; Owens’ husband, John Owens; and his other brother, Francis Biden. - “The issuance of these pardons should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that they engaged in any wrongdoing, nor should acceptance be misconstrued as an admission of guilt for any offense,” Biden said in a press release. --- AND January 6th "Hostages" pardoned Tariffs - Seems that the squeeze is on - 25% on Mexico (MexAmerica) and Canada (CanAmerica) starting Feb 1st. - HOT FLASH - 10% on China starting Feb 1 Musk - Feelings hurt? - Removing of EV mandates - not in his best interest.. Right? - Could it be a swap for more lucrative defense and space contracts? TikTok - Goes dark for a little while over he weekend (Apple, Google remove app and offline on web)

People are catching on - Fed has no clue Investors are nervous - lots of intraday volatility Correction - could it be? USA- Going DEEPER into debt DOGE - already making excuses PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - People are catching on - Fed has no clue - Investors are nervous - lots of intraday volatility - Correction - could it be? - USA- Going DEEPER into debt - DOGE - already making excuses - Next Monday - Market Holiday and Inauguration day Markets - No happy - inflation and jobs (A 1-2 Punch for markets) - CPI and PPI this week - make it or break it? - Rates hitting key resistance - Oil spikes - multi-month high All of a sudden.. - Microsoft, Facebook and other companies are cutting staff again - Talk of tough year ahead... What is up? If they don't cooperate? - Cut their pay! - China is set to slash pay for staff at its top three financial regulators, including the central bank, by about half, as part of a regulatory revamp unveiled in 2023 to bring their salaries in line with other civil servants - Starting from this month, staff at the People's Bank of China (PBOC), National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) and China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will see total income slashed by about half. More China - Pull Forward - China’s trade data in December beat expectations by a large margin, with exporters continuing to frontload shipments as worries over additional tariffs mount, while the country’s stimulus measures appear to be supporting demand in the industrial sector. - Can it last? Let's Talk Turkey - Fed has no idea what is going on - They simply can move markets, (equity and fixed income) by liquefying markets - HOPE that they have the general trend and can regulate the flow so not overheat or overcool - In reality, their forecasting tools are crap --- BUT, focus on what they do, not what they say or their outlook Employment Numbers - Summary: Nonfarm payrolls increased by a stronger-than-expected 256,000, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, average hourly earnings growth year-over-year was a sturdy 3.9%, and more people were employed. - Much better than anticipated ! - Unemployment rate drops - So, we see higher prices and better employment - markets spooked that Fed out of touch - One-Two punch for equities Result - Steepening yield curve Market Sell-off - NASDAQ 100 off 6% from the highs - Big names down more (NVDA 13%, Tesla 18%, Apple 10%, NFLX 10%) - SOOOO - Big Cap Tech is in a correction and dragging down markets - Markets are in the RED for the year and unchanged/under the pre-election day move. - More speculative (runners) stocks are down even more... Quantum Stocks - DUH! - Sell-off deepened as Zuck cautioned that the potential is still years (and years) away (on Joe Rogan Show) --- Zuck looking like he wants to follow in Elon's footsteps Quantum Stocks More Zuck - Bashing Apple... - No innovation, random rules - "So how are they making more money as a company? Well, they do it by basically, like, squeezing people, and, like you're saying, having this 30% tax on developers by getting you to buy more peripherals and things that plug into it," Zuckerberg said. "You know, they build stuff like Air Pods, which are cool, but they've just thoroughly hamstrung the ability for anyone else to build something that can connect to the iPhone in the same way." Oh - and this... - Meta on Friday told employees that its plans to end a number of internal programs designed to increase the company's hiring of diverse candidates, the latest dramatic change ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's second Wh...

Grinch Ending .... No Santa Rally CTP Results are IN! Close race Cocktails -> Cancerous now PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Grinch Ending .... No Santa Rally - CTP Results are IN! Close race - Cocktails -> Cancerous now - New rules for medical bill deadbeats - Markets - Poor end of year - hard hit by Grinch - killed Santa Rally - Gym parking Lots - Resolutions for January - Yields starting to becom a problem - CME Fed Funds Futures --> No CUT MAN!   Market Update - December Market Update Sector Update January Markets - As expected, the start of the year is typically a time when people make resolutions they hope to keep. - In the finance world, we often hear about returning to discipline, cutting losers, adding to winners, and adhering to all the fundamental rules. - Additionally, at this time of year, investors may consider becoming more aggressive, less aggressive, more diversified, or investing in last year's winning stocks. - These thoughts and actions contribute to market volatility, which usually fades away within a couple of months when resolutions are forgotten ---- Much like how the parking lots at local gyms are packed every January, but plenty of spots open up by March. Big Issue - The big issue we need to focus on now is the continuing increase in rates as the 10-year Treasury yield has now breached a key resistance level of 4.6%, which is significant. - There are several reasons for this move, but the simple facts are that the economy is still growing and prices are on the rise. ISM Report - Not Helping (From Briefing.com) - The ISM Services PMI increased to 54.1% in December (Briefing.com consensus 53.0%) from 52.1% in November. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the December reading reflects services sector activity accelerating from November. - The key takeaway from the report is that it was a double-whammy for rate cut expectations in that the expansion in services sector activity accelerated while the prices index picked up noticeably, printing its first reading above 60.0% since January 2024. • The Business Activity/Production Index increased to 58.2% from 53.7%. • The New Orders Index bumped up to 54.2% from 53.7%. • The Employment Index dipped to 51.4% from 51.5%. • The Prices Index jumped to 64.4% from 58.2%. • The Supplier Deliveries Index rose to 52.5% from 49.5%. • The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 44.3% from 47.1%. No Cuts for A While - With prices on the rise and the economy in good shape... CME Fed Funds Nat Gas! - Natural gas futures prices surged last Monday, hitting a new 52-week high following reports of a colder-than-usual temperature outlook for January. - Natural gas February futures rose around 15% during the session after an updated outlook by The Weather Co. and Atmospheric G2 released Sunday showed that the temperature forecast for next month is expected to be colder than average in the East, specifically from Florida to Maine as well as certain parts of the Great Lakes. - POLAR VORTEX? - Already prices are fading.... Booze Bummer - The U.S. surgeon general issued a new advisory warning Friday about the link between alcohol consumption and increased cancer risk, and pushed for policy changes to help reduce the number of alcohol-related cancers. - U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said there is a "well-established" link between drinking alcohol and at least seven types of cancer, including breast, colorectum, esophagus and liver. For cancers including breast, mouth and throat cancers, increased risk may start around one or fewer drinks per day, according to his office.

Another year is in the record books.... Let's   not forget about the not-so boring election, Hacks, beached and outages and PEAK NVDA! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign...   Checking out the early CTP Cup Standings   HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? 2024 - DH Closest to The Pin Cup - Up and Running   Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Shutdown..... AVERTED Mergers - Auto Industry big move Lots of Trump Talk The Market's new favorite stocks PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Shutdown..... AVERTED - Mergers - Auto Industry big move - Lots of Trump Talk - Deli Stock Scheme - Update - Holiday Tidings! - Markets - S&P 500 Equal weight down 6% MTD, Small Caps down 8% - The New favs? Quantum Computing Stocks - Santa Like them..... - Index inclusion has become a thing Checking out the early CTP Cup Standings EVERYONE IS IN! - 7 Contestants.... Fed Meeting Dec 18th - Fed freaked out markets - All of a sudden they are projecting that inflation is not going to come down to their 2% level into 2026 - DJIA was donw 1000 points and it was an ugly day overall. - Onc day later, PCE comes out not too far aay from assumptions and market takes off - Just goes to show that DJIA - Records? - Follow up - it was 10 days and the last time that happened was 1974 Meanwhile - XMAS Rally - Once big day down, then a test and BOUNCE - Most of the Fed Day losses have been wipe out - still much damage in December --- Once again - Mega cap holding things up ---- EVEN though 10Yr >4.6%  - this is an important price point... Failed  couple of times before. Quantum Computing Stocks - Ever since Alphabet (Google) announced that they made progress, been some crazy moves on a few names - with YTD returns -- D-Wave Quantum Inc  QBTS  (825%) -- Rigetti Computing Inc   RGTI  (1,050%) -- Quantum Computing Inc   QUBT  (1,900%) -- Defiance Quantum ETF   QTUM (51%) -- IONQ Inc    IONQ   (240%) ---(none seem to be making any money  - actually losing a ton) More Quantum - Willow's speed is almost incomprehensible — according to Google, it's able to perform a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today's fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years to solve. Ten septillion is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years. - Concern has turned to the potential for this technology to break down crypto (or other) cryptography. --- It may take years - but this could be something we need to watch as a byproduct, the need for better security from quantum hacks Auto Merger - Japanese automakers Nissan and Honda on Monday announced they had entered into official talks to merge and create the world's third-largest automaker by sales. - The deal would aim to share intelligence and resources and deliver economies of scale and synergies while protecting both brands - Nissan's strategic partner Mitsubishi has been offered the chance to join the new group and will take a decision by the end of January 2025. - Lots of things to iron out before this deal gets done Index Traders - Hang on... - Huge moves to reset these days - Companies are competing to get to NASDAQ and NYSE to gain inclusion as they know share prices will potentially pop - Palatntir is banking on that as they said in their recent announcement and one reason was to get inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 - These kind of index changes has buig impacts on stocks - - ALSO, there should be some movement over the next month as there will be re-balancing going on as 2024 big run for markets/stocks Trump Talk/Plans - Trump said he will not let the canal fall into the 'wrong hands' - Trump accused Panama of charging excessive fees to use the canal - Panama's President Mulino defends canal's independence and fees - US handed over control of the canal in 1999 - Talk that we could take it back - Twitter: "Every square meter of the Panama Canal and the surrounding area belongs to Panama and will c...

Kissing Ass is good for the wallet Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision Time's Person of the Year! Whistleblower found dead PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Kissing Ass is good for the wallet - Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision - Person of the Year! - Whistleblower found dead - Markets - Odd - DJIA down for 7 days, NASDAQ can't be stopped (TSLA pushing this time - once again a reason to look at market cap weightings) - Fanning the flames - A new name into NASDAQ 100 - Earnings - A few interesting data points - Social Security benefits increase - Yes and No, Inflation and No Inflation - Not since... 2018 or 1978? Reminder -  the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup Michael Bowling Kirk Saathoff Eric Harvey Chad Laajala Tim Dewey Paul Kinder Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner) ---Emails have gone out... Fed Meeting Dec 18th - 89% probability of a 0.25% rate cut - Fed has its back to the wall - markets are dictating - No reason to believe that they need a cut, although the would not want to worry markets or surprise them in any way - All reporting shows that they will do the cut, back off a little as to the amount of potential cuts coming in recognition of the fact that the economy is still running well DJIA - Records? - The DJIA has been down for 8 days in a row and that has not happened since 2018. - If the DJIA declines today, that would take us back to the 1970's, 1978 to be exact when there was a 9 day decline. - But, that is the DJIA, the NASDAQ an SP500 have been holding up. - Moreover, the fall for the DJIA this month is less that 3%, so not much damage done to the index itself. Another Sinkhole Warning - SP500 equal weighted is down more than 3% for the MTD. - SP500 up slightly MTD - NASDAQ 100 up moer than 5% - Small-caps down 3% BUT - Wait.... - A measure of wholesale price rose more than expected in November, adding fuel to the belief that progress in bringing down inflation has slowed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. - On an annual basis, PPI rose 3%, the biggest advance since February 2023. - This is after an inline CPI number. - Rates are on the rise for bonds, as expected --- Mark this date - inflation could make a comeback in 2025 and totally offside the fed (And they are fanning the flames ) AND Consumers are Spending - November Retail Sales 0.7% vs. 0.5% consensus; prior revised to 0.5% from 0.4% But - ISM Composite - Rolling Over ISM Composite CHIPS - Shares of Broadcom popped more than 21% Friday morning, pushing the company’s market cap beyond $1 trillion for the first time. It will be Broadcom’s best trading day on record if the move holds until the closing bell. The move comes after the company reported fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and showed strong artificial intelligence revenue growth. - Broadcom reported $14.05 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, up 51% year over year but shy of the $14.09 billion expected by analysts according to LSEG. In Broadcom’s semiconductor solutions group, which includes its AI chips, revenue increased 12% to $8.23 billion from $8.03 billion a year ago. More Chips - US planning on restricting AI  Chips around the world - Planning on closing China's backdoor access -Washington plans rules limiting semiconductor shipments to some countries accused of supplying Beijing - NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, AMD, INTC, SMH Nuclear - getting some traction - SMRs - Small Nuclear Reactors - Small modular reactors,

Big - Run - Crypto Pops and Drops Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps HUGE Baseball Deal Equifax Class Action - Finally a payout? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Big - Run - Crypto Pops and Drops - Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps - Baseball Deal - Equifax Class Action - Finally a payout? Markets - Employment Report - This week's CPI and PPI Data - Santa Rally - Could be just be a couple weeks away - - Trump Limericks (AI) ANNOUNCING the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup Michael Bowling Kirk Saathoff Eric Harvey Chad Laajala Tim Dewey Paul Kinder Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner) ---Emails have gone out... Regarding AMD - BofA Securities downgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to Neutral from Buy, lower CY25/26 pf-EPS by 6%/8%ta $4.43/55.51, about -13%/-23% below consensus 55.09/57.11. Two factors: 1) Higher competitive risks in Al against best-of-breed NVDA's dominance, and growing cloud preference for custom chips from MRVL/AVGO. limiting AMD's market share gain potential, and 2) Potential for 1H'25E PC processor correction, after ~4O% HoH surge in AMD's 2H'24E client PC sales.  Shares are down 3%. Oracle Earnings - Oracle (ORCL -8%) is lower following its Q2 (Nov) earnings report last night. - The company reported a slight EPS miss, its second miss in the past three quarters. - Revenue rose 8.6% yr/yr to $14.06 bln, but that was also a bit light of analyst expectations. - The Q3 (Feb) adjusted EPS guidance of $1.47-1.51 was also lower than expected. - Oracle guided to Q3 revs of +7-9% (+9-11% CC), which we compute as $14.21-14.48 bln, which was also light, partly due to FX. Google Chip - Releases the Willow quantum computing chip - Google has unveiled a new chip which it claims takes five minutes to solve a problem that would currently take the world's fastest super computers ten septillion – or 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years – to complete. - However experts say Willow is, for now, a largely experimental device, meaning a quantum computer powerful enough to solve a wide range of real-world problems is still years - and billions of dollars - away. MLB Deal - The Mets on Sunday agreed to sign Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million contract, multiple sources said, by far the largest pact in Major League Baseball history. - The deal, which the Mets have not confirmed because it’s pending a physical, contains a $75 million signing bonus, an opt-out after five seasons and no deferred money. - The Mets will have the ability to void Soto’s opt-out clause after the 2029 season if they boost the average annual value of the final 10 years of his deal from $51 million to $55 million, according to a source. - In that case, the overall deal would be for 15 years and $805 million - Right and Left Fielder - with .288 Batting average - In 2024, he hit 41 homers and had 129 walks. It was his fourth season with at least 25 home runs and 125 walks. That's fourth-most in MLB history, behind only Barry Bonds (10 such seasons), Babe Ruth (10) and Ted Williams (eight). China - Back in the Spotlight - Disinflation again and profits slowing - China's inflation drops - China's producer price index declined for the 26th month. Producer inflation fell by 2.5% year on year in November... - Sunday announcement - China's leaders on Monday pledged "more proactive" fiscal measures and "moderately" looser monetary policy next year to boost domestic consumption, according to an official readout of a key policy meeting that outlined upcoming economic priorities.

Very Business friendly cabinet Market rotation continues - now it is back into the big-caps Consumers - WOW! - Spend Spend Spend Black Friday and Cyber Monday updates PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Very Business friendly cabinet - Market rotation continues - now it is back into the big-caps - Consumers - WOW! - Spend Spend Spend - Black Friday and Cyber Monday updates Markets - November - the best month of the year! - New highs and predictions for a 5% December - USD is on the rise - bond yields ease. - Bitcoin can't seem to breach $100k ANNOUNCING the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup Michael Bowling Kirk Saathoff Eric Harvey Chad Laajala Tim Dewey Paul Kinder Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner) Saying goodbye to legend - Art Cashin - Pillar of the exchange - He was on the TDI Podcast - LINK Marshall Law - South Korean President Yoon declares martial law: - Says through martial law he will rebuild a free and democratic country - Government administration has been paralyzed because of opposition party conducts - Says he will eradicate pro-North forces and protect constitutional order - Marshall Law lifted - but a good amount of confusion remains Consumers on a Rampage - Adobe said that in the U.S., consumers made a record-breaking $10.8 billion of purchases, up 10.2% on last year. - Cyber Monday sales reached $13.5 bln, ahead of initial expectations - Quick Amazon vs Costco Story - Looking for UPS backup - Same model on Amazon (Cyber Monday Deal) $179 - Costco $129 - Buy now, pay later plans helped finance purchases, driving 8.8% more in online spend than last year - But... Not so much IN-STORE: Overall, store traffic on Black Friday was down 3.2%, with footfall down 7% in the Midwest, 2.1% in the Northeast, 3.5% in the South and 3.2% in the West Retail - Consumer discretionary stocks are on fire - People are buying - alot of stuff - Abercrombie & Fitch issued strong holiday guidance last week after posting its sixth straight quarter of double-digit sales growth and another quarter of results that topped expectations. - Gap issued good guidance as well - RTH ETF - (Retail) all time high (Amazon, Costco, Home Depot, WalMart etc) On the Other hand.... - Electronics provider Best Buy on Tuesday cut its full-year sales forecast as it missed Wall Street's quarterly revenue expectations and a fresh batch of iPhones and AI-enabled laptops weren't enough to drive higher sales. - The consumer electronics retailer said it now expects full-year revenue to range from $41.1 billion to $41.5 billion, compared to prior guidance of $41.3 billion to $41.9 billion. - It expects full-year comparable sales to decline by between 2.5% and 3.5%, compared to its prior expectations of a 1.5% to 3% drop. Year Top Date Scorecard S&P Sector Scorecard AI - Amazon announced it would invest an additional $4 billion in Anthropic, the artificial intelligence startup founded by ex-OpenAI research executives. - The new funding brings the tech giant's total investment to $8 billion, though Amazon will retain its position as a minority investor, according to Anthropic, the San Francisco-based startup behind the Claude chatbot and AI model. - Amazon Web Services will also become Anthropic's "primary cloud and training partner," - Amazon does not have a seat on Anthropic's board. AI - Immigration - A signature campaign promise of President-elect Donald Trump is to initiate mass deportations of undocumented residents of the United States. - At a Sept. 12 campaign stop in Tucson, Arizona,

Where are all the smokers these days? DOGE - making promises. We are all turkeys - just gullible for every comment and promise. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Twitter - How you like the AI generated cover art? (May need to come to DHUnplugged to see all) Warm-Up - Where are all the smokers these days? - DOGE - making promises - High level indictment - We are all turkeys - just gullible for every comment and promise Markets -#endthefed making the rounds - Treasury Secretary? - Target earnings surprise - Black Friday - will that boost retail? - New Phrase - Mullet Market Thanksgiving - What is going to be on the Dvorak table? ANNOUNCING the CTP Winner for Carvana Mullet Market - No, the fish... - Steady benchmarks in the front, crypto party in the back Netflix Again - Netflix notches 70 million monthly active users on ad-supported plan - 250 million subs and 70 million on ad plan - Didn't we used to call this TV? Made a full circle except that ad-based also has a monthly fee - Over 50% of the new sign ups are ads based plans Smokers - Retail cigarette sales in China have been growing for the past 4 years, reaching 2.44 trillion sticks in 2023, data from Euromonitor showed. The research group forecasts that sales will continue to increase annually, hitting 2.48 trillion by 2028. - Euromonitor added that growth has coincided with the increasing popularity of "slim" cigarettes, often advertised as "low-tar," and various types of flavored cigarettes. - Between 2019 and 2023, annual worldwide sales of cigarette sticks fell by about 2.7% to 5.18 trillion, according to Euromonitor data. At more than 300 million, China has the most cigarette smokers in the world, making up nearly a third of the world's total smokers, according to the World Health Organization. Topic of Discussion - #endthefed - Do you think that Musk and Trump and the new gang will try to end the Fed? - Elon endorsed the idea of the President being able to intervene on monetary policy. - Seems like that will undermine the independence and then the confidence in the Fed -- Going to be some fireworks with Powell saying he will not resign and cannot be fired DOGE - Dept of Government Efficiency - Still a hardy har name - like saying Penis when in 3rd grade - Incoming Department of Government Efficiency wants to create new mobile application for Americans to file taxes for free with IRS, according to Washington Post (Intuit and HR Block down on this...) - Explain how a government agency that does not exist is making these kinds of statements. --- Thought: Make these statements and either buy or short stocks? (Again we are all turkeys - hopefully not going to be led to slaughter) Higher rates - Rates are running higher after the election - actually up to the election ran up from 3.6% to 4.6% and nor in the range - DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday interest rates could shoot higher as the Republicans ended up controlling the House, securing a governing trifecta that gives President-elect Donald Trump free rein to spend as he pleases. - Pre-election: "If the House goes to Republicans, there's going to be a lot of debt, there's going to be higher interest rates at the long end, and it'll be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to that," Gundlach said - If the Trump administration extends the 2017 tax cuts or introduces new reductions, it could add significant amount to the nation's debt in the next few years, worsening the already troublesome fiscal picture. Yeah Right.... - Vocal critic of Putin, Vladimir Shklyarov, 39,

Wild ride for markets - election movers and groovers. Fed dousing the fire a bit. Inflation is still a thing. Nuke talk again.... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Warm-Up - Up and Down - Election Confusing Markets - What a wild ride - more to come - CTP for Carvana will be closing out this coming Friday and that is it for 2024 - CTP Cup comes in December - More hacks that no one cares about - Another big bankruptcy - Nuke talks again Markets - Up and down - shine off that penny? - Every pick / comment brings on new move - Fed pours some cold water on markets - Inflation - still a thing - Something happening - only happened a few times in history ANNOUNCEMENT : AH - Chili Competition Results - 3rd Place Netflix - Jake Paul (27) and Mike Tyson (58) - 60 million people "tried" to watch - Glitches - system overload - Jake Paul took it in a 8 round decision. - Can you imagine if Netflix starts doing these live events with a $1 charge? - Jake Paul got $40M and Tyson got $20M Follow Up - Palantir - Jumps after earnings and then announcing move to NASDAQ (Nov 26) - As of last Friday - #1 performer in S&P 500 this year - Up 48% MTD and 250% YTD - Big move Friday was because it will qualify for NAZ 100 (QQQ) and lots of buying will need to be done - Good for Peter: Thiel's Palantir holdings have increased in value by about $3.2 billion since the earnings report and $2 billion since the election. Once Hot -Now Not - Here is company that we had for clients -bought low, sold higher, bought some more higher, sold on way down - Super Micro - SMCI - was a darling for some time - then a few short sellers attacked - stock sold off - Company decided to follow the other guys with 10-1 stock spilts - stock was as high as $1,200 per share pre split- now??? $21.75 ($217.50 comparable) - Could be kicked out of NASDAQ - Short -Sellers couldbe right - Super Micro is late in filing its 2024 year-end report with the SEC, and has yet to replace its accounting firm. --- UPDATE - Super Micro Computer secures BDO USA as lead auditor, targets key filings by early 2025 amid NASDAQ approval process (Stock up 25%) Markets - Not Often Seen - The stock market has done this only three times since January 1871 - The Shiller P/E ratio has reached a reading of 38 only three times during a bull market rally in 153 years. In December 1999, during the dot-com boom, the Shiller P/E peaked at a reading of 44.19. Meanwhile, in the first week of 2022, it very briefly lifted above 40. - On most occasions, this heat needs to be cooled... It could take time as this is a slow moving ratio/indicator - Another point - only a few times in history have we seen a market up 20% - 2 consecutive years. --- Will it continue? History shows that this needs to cool off too - but that does not mean a crash is imminent. More Cooling - Russell 2000 was HOT right after the election. - Day after it was up like 5%+++ - Last week, down 4% Hack'd - Hackers linked to a Chinese intelligence agency were able to breach T-Mobile as part of a months-long campaign to spy on the cellphone communications of high-value intelligence targets - Last Wednesday, The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the U.S. cyber watchdog agency CISA said China-linked hackers have intercepted surveillance data intended for American law enforcement agencies after breaking into an unspecified number of telecom companies. - Earlier in October, the Journal reported that Chinese hackers accessed the networks of U.S. broadband providers, including Verizon Communications, AT&T and Lumen Technologies,