China's Nuclear Missile Test: Signaling or Routine?

Professor Stephen Herzog joins Carl and Christine to examine why well-intentioned nuclear policies sometimes backfire and what artificial intelligence could mean for the future of nuclear security. From the design of the CTBT and the difference between treaty signing and ratification to proliferation, disarmament, verification, and AI-enabled threats, the conversation explores how policymakers can manage nuclear risks in an increasingly complex technological environment.Drawing from Herzog’s open-access book Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail, the episode also asks a critical question: Are the worlds of AI governance and WMD governance prepared to confront these risks together?Dr. Herzog is Director of the Vermont Office of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at Middlebury College and Editor-in-Chief of The Nonproliferation Review. His research focuses on nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, disarmament, and the growing intersection of AI and nuclear weapons.Atomic Backfires book free download: https://direct.mit.edu/books/oa-edited-volume/6076/Atomic-BackfiresWhen-Nuclear-Policies-Fail

The U.S. nuclear strategy playbook was built for a different world. The Honorable Frank Miller argues that with Russia and China presenting simultaneous strategic challenges, U.S. policy and force posture must evolve with them.Host Christine Leah joins Miller to discuss extended deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, the relationship between conventional and nuclear capabilities, missile defense, SLCM-N, Dark Eagle, Golden Dome, AUKUS, and the importance of maintaining allied confidence.Miller also explains why he believes traditional ideas about “nuclear superiority” can obscure the real question: Does the United States have the capabilities, planning, and political credibility necessary to deter its adversaries and reassure its allies?Miller served 31 years in the U.S. government, including positions at the State Department, Department of Defense, and White House. He is a principal at the Scowcroft Group and co-author of America’s Strategic Posture.www.thinkdeterrence.com

Japan just broke a major taboo, and Australia may be next. A serving defense minister is publicly questioning whether nuclear weapons, nuclear-powered submarines, and extended deterrence should still be off limits—and that shift opens up one of the most important security debates in the Indo-Pacific. Carl Rhodes and Christine Leah unpack why this matters far beyond Tokyo. If you care about Australia’s AUKUS path, the credibility of the US nuclear umbrella, or what happens when old taboos collide with a worsening security environment, this conversation goes straight to the heart of it. You’ll discover:Why Japan’s willingness to openly discuss nuclear options is a big dealHow Australia’s AUKUS decision skipped the public debate Japan is now forcingWhat extended deterrence means, and why some allies feel safer with more visible nuclear supportThe tension between non-proliferation ideals and geopolitical realityWhy conventional and nuclear deterrence can no longer be separatedHow precision strike, drones, and long-range missiles are changing the meaning of strategic depthwww.thinkdeterrence.com

A new map of the U.S. military footprint in Australia has reignited a long-running debate over sovereignty, deterrence, and entrapment. With 110 facilities tied to U.S. access, contractor activity, intelligence work, bomber operations, submarine support, logistics, and stockpiled war materiel, the stakes are no longer abstract. Christine and Carl unpack why the relationship is growing more integrated. You'll discover how concepts like full knowledge and concurrence shape Australia’s control over joint facilities, why phrases like “no foreign bases” can be legally true while still masking deep operational access, and how the 2014 Force Posture Agreement actually works in practice. The conversation also traces the issue back to Pine Gap, Northwest Cape, and the Cold War, showing this is not a new controversy - just one that has become more urgent. Christine brings a historical lens on Australian alliance management and extended deterrence, including the long debate over what Australia should expect from the United States in a crisis. Carl pushes on the practical side - what happens when facilities, submarines, aircraft, and munitions are already enmeshed, and who decides what gets used, when, and for whom? We break down the real tension between deterrence and entrapment, why Australia may want the protection of U.S. power without losing agency, and how the rise of China changes the calculations. The discussion also gets into the role of regional conflict, whether the Pacific has truly been “pivoted” to by the U.S., and why a war involving major powers would be a whole-of-nation event, not just a military one. www.thinkdeterrence.com

What enables a nation to endure years of war and continue fighting effectively? In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Dr. Viktoriya Fedorchak explores the remarkable resilience of Ukraine throughout the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Drawing on her research, she examines the interconnected concepts of preparedness, mobilization, and resilience, highlighting how military and societal factors have enabled Ukraine to adapt and persevere under extraordinary pressure. The conversation explores key lessons from Ukraine’s long-term conflict, including the importance of national preparedness, the ability to recover and adapt in wartime, and the role of public support in sustaining military effectiveness. Dr. Fedorchak also discusses how these lessons may apply to other nations, particularly Australia, as they confront evolving security challenges. The episode concludes with an examination of modern warfare’s rapidly changing character, including the growing impact of drones and the continued importance of air power. Dr. Fedorchak offers insights into how military organizations can adapt their doctrines and force structures to address emerging threats while maintaining operational effectiveness. Dr. Viktoriya Fedorchak is a Senior lecturer and Docent\Associate Professor in War Studies, Air Operations Division, at the Swedish Defence University. Previously, she taught courses in Air Power, Security and Strategic Studies, International Relations in Norway, Ireland, and the UK. She has widely published on air power and security studies, multi-domain aspects of the Russia-Ukraine war. Her books are the monograph ‘British Air Power: The Doctrinal Path to Jointery’ (Bloomsbury Academic, 2018), and the textbook ‘Understanding Contemporary Air power’ (Routledge, 2020). Her most recent monograph, ‘The Russia-Ukraine War: towards Resilient fighting Power’ (Routledge), was published in Spring 2024 and is available online in open access. Her current research interests include air power, Nordic aerial cooperation, multi-domain operations, professional military education, and Sweden’s NATO membership.www.thinkdeterrence.com

How should allies share the burden of defense in an increasingly contested security environment? In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Christine and Carl unpack the strategic implications of a recent speech by U.S. Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby and explore what it means for the future of the U.S.-Australia alliance.The discussion examines alliance responsibilities, deterrence strategies, and the challenges of maintaining regional stability in the Indo-Pacific. From Australia's growing military capabilities and strategic partnerships to debates over burden sharing, missile defense, and military readiness, the conversation highlights how allies can strengthen deterrence while navigating complex geopolitical realities.Christine and Carl also compare NATO's evolution with security arrangements in the Asia-Pacific, discussing how different threat environments shape alliance structures, defense investments, and strategic decision-making. Along the way, they explore the concepts of strategic depth, forward basing, escalation dynamics, and the economic benefits that underpin enduring security partnerships.Tune in for an insightful discussion on how allies can strengthen deterrence, adapt to evolving threats, and maintain stability in one of the world's most strategically important regions.https://thinkdeterrence.com/Like and follow us –The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xmlLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.comOur Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl Rhodes and Christine Leah examine one of the most debated developments in modern nuclear strategy: the United States' Sea-Launched Cruise Missile-Nuclear (SLCM-N) program. As geopolitical competition intensifies in the Indo-Pacific, policymakers and defense planners are reassessing how nuclear and conventional capabilities contribute to deterrence, assurance, and regional stability. Carl and Christine break down what SLCM-N is, why the United States is pursuing the capability, and how it fits into the broader framework of extended nuclear deterrence. They explore the historical role of sea-launched nuclear weapons, the legacy of the nuclear Tomahawk missile, and the strategic arguments both for and against deploying nuclear-armed cruise missiles aboard naval platforms. The discussion also examines Australia's evolving missile defense capabilities, including recent testing at Woomera, and considers what these developments mean for allies and partners throughout the region. Along the way, they address the perspectives of Japan and South Korea, command and control challenges, signaling and escalation risks, and Australia's longstanding nuclear policy commitments. From tactical nuclear weapons and maritime deterrence to alliance assurance and Indo-Pacific security, this episode provides a timely and accessible look at the complex strategic questions shaping the future of nuclear deterrence. Resources: Hiroshi Nakatani thesis on Japan https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/86467/2/23871021_Nakatani_thesis.pdf Desmond Ball http://www.jstor.org/stable/2538940?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents Linton Brooks http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/ins/summary/v013/13.3.brooks.html David Lange https://www.amazon.com.au/Nuclear-Free-New-Zealand-Way/dp/0140145192 www.thinkdeterrence.com

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl and Christine examine China's recent submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test and what it reveals about Beijing's evolving approach to nuclear deterrence in the Asia-Pacific. Was the launch a routine military activity, a strategic signal, or both? Carl and Christine explore the role of transparency, nuclear signaling, and strategic communication among major powers, while discussing the implications for Australia, the United States, and regional allies. They also unpack the diplomatic dynamics unfolding across the Pacific, the challenges posed by emerging missile technologies, and the growing importance of credible deterrence in an increasingly complex security environment.Chapters00:00 Introduction and episode overview01:28 China tests submarine-launched missile in the Pacific02:22 Timing of the test and regional signaling04:22 Interpretation of routine vs. provocative testing08:12 Transparency and nuclear signaling11:27 Missile testing and international norms14:38 Cruise missiles and nuclear deterrence16:15 Warning time and strategic preparedness20:22 Australia’s response and regional security22:48 Nuclear free zones and regional treaties24:55 Diplomatic strategies in the Pacific27:00 The evolving strategic landscape in Asia-Pacific30:12 Future challenges and the role of transparencyhttps://thinkdeterrence.com/ Like and follow us –The NIDS View: https://media.rss.com/nuclearview/feed.xmlLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/thinkdeterrence X.com: https://x.com/thinkdeterrence YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGa4dcPqONWzjmbuZMOBHQ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/NIDSthinkdeterrence Global Security Review: https://globalsecurityreview.comOur Free Events: https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, defense expert Marc Ablong joins the conversation to examine the challenges facing Australia's defense establishment and the reforms needed to strengthen deterrence, resilience, and national preparedness. From acquisition delays and risk-averse processes to supply chain vulnerabilities and sovereign capability, Ablong offers a candid assessment of what must change to deliver the capabilities Australia needs. The discussion explores the government's efforts to reform defense delivery, the realities of achieving greater self-reliance, and why a whole-of-nation approach is essential to addressing modern security challenges. Ablong argues that organizational restructuring alone is not enough—success depends on faster decision-making, resilient supply chains, and stronger partnerships across government, industry, and society. Marc Ablong is Managing Partner of Geostrategic Risk Partners. Prior to founding Geostrategic Risk Partners, Marc had a 31-year career in the Australian Public Service, that culminated as Deputy Secretary of the Australian Department of Home Affairs. Before that, Marc was a senior executive with 25 years within the Department of Defence. Marc led the development of the 2016 Defence White Paper, Integrated Investment Program and Defence Industry Policy Statement. Substack: mablong.substack.com

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, defense analyst Steven Kuper joins the conversation to examine Australia’s evolving strategic posture in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific. The discussion centers on the implications of AUKUS—the trilateral security partnership reshaping defense cooperation, advanced capabilities, and undersea power in the region—and what it means for Australia’s long-term security and strategic independence. Cooper explores the tension between Australia’s historic reliance on allies and the growing need for greater self-reliance, highlighting how resilience—across defense, industry, and the economy—has become a core component of national security. From submarine capabilities to supply chain strength, the conversation underscores the interconnected nature of modern deterrence. The episode also unpacks strategic stability in a complex environment, where technological change, regional competition, and military modernization are reshaping how nations prepare for and prevent conflict. As Cooper notes, deterrence is not just about capability—it’s about adaptability, mobilization, and making critical choices today that shape tomorrow’s security landscape. With insights on mobilization challenges, defense industry capacity, and geopolitical risk, this episode offers a clear-eyed look at the realities facing Australia—and why building a resilient, integrated strategy is essential for navigating the future of deterrence. Listen now to explore how Australia is positioning itself for the next era of strategic competition. www.thinkdeterrence.com Follow us on YouTube and Linkedin