TWIG #399: GTA VI Breaks Netflix, EU Targets Roblox and Zero Company's Studio Implodes

McKinsey, the United Nations, Skype, Rocket Internet, Facebook, King. Then Akin Babayigit co-founded Tripledot, spun out Luna Labs, and now runs Arcadia Gaming Partners, a $100M fund he deploys alone.He left Türkiye at sixteen and never moved back, which makes him one of the few people who can talk about Istanbul as both an insider and an outsider. We get into how the ecosystem was built, why Sidar Şahin still shapes it years after disappearing, why payback windows are the wrong lens, and what he told a room of Turkish founders that they did not want to hear.Chapters 02:42 Leaving Türkiye 06:23 Building Tripledot 08:51 The Sidar myth 18:21 One trick? 20:47 First mover advantage 23:25 Payback versus IRR 28:32 What AI changes 31:43 The AppLovin dependency 40:07 fal and Layer 42:22 What Türkiye lacks 49:28 The unsexy work 54:24 After gaming 1:05:20 Türkiye and Israel

GTA VI just proved it can break Netflix, the EU just put Roblox under its strictest rulebook, and one of the best reviewed games of the year is already falling apart behind the scenes.The crew breaks down the numbers behind GTA VI's Netflix trailer drop and what it means for pre-orders, why PlayStation is quietly winning the entire hype cycle, and how rising RAM prices could delay the PS6. They also cover Gamescom's attendance numbers and the shift toward Eastern exhibitors, the EU's new Roblox designation, Star Wars Zero Company's strong launch undone by a founder lawsuit, Brian Ward's exit from Savvy Games Group, Tencent's new AI tool portfolio and NCSoft's $300 million mobile studio buying spree.Topics Covered:• GTA VI's Netflix trailer drop and the pre-order numbers behind it• Why PlayStation is quietly winning the GTA VI hype cycle• Rising RAM prices and what they mean for the PS6• Gamescom 2026 attendance and the shift toward Eastern exhibitors• The EU designates Roblox a very large online platform• Star Wars Zero Company's strong launch and Metacritic scores• The founder lawsuit quietly sinking developer Bit Reactor• Brian Ward steps down as Savvy Games Group CEO• Tencent's new AI tool portfolio for game development• NCSoft's $300 million mobile studio buying spreeCHAPTERS:01:24 Episode 400 Teaser02:08 Shills and New Content03:59 Gamescom Stats Recap07:03 Mishka Gamescom Takeaways09:28 Cologne Logistics and Hotels11:20 GTA VI x Netflix Drop17:14 PlayStation Wins the Cycle21:28 EU Targets Roblox24:56 EU Market Fragmentation28:38 Star Wars Zero Company Launch32:16 Studio Furloughs Lawsuit36:46 Savvy CEO Steps Down49:18 China AI Platform Bets54:36 NCSoft Strategy Skepticism56:10 Episode 400 Tease Wrap

Shooters are having one of their best summers in years, and every major franchise still can't agree on what to do about it.The crew runs through the battle pass shakeup hitting Call of Duty, Battlefield and Overwatch, breaks down why Battlefield is quietly beating Call of Duty on Steam, and picks apart Apex Legends' run as the most consistent live service in the genre. They also dig into Gears of War: E-Day's beta results against Helldivers 2, unpack why War Bonds aren't actually battle passes, and argue about why Western studios keep playing it safe while Eastern developers experiment their way to the top.Topics Covered:• The battle pass shakeup across Call of Duty, Battlefield and Overwatch• Why Battlefield is outperforming Call of Duty on PC despite the franchise's rocky years• Ranked play, Battlefield Labs and the Elite Top 250 leaderboard• What's next for Battlefield now a new mainline entry isn't landing next year• Call of Duty's tech unification and the tradeoffs it created down the line• Apex Legends' revenue consistency, live ops machine and collab strategy• Apex's growth potential in China and Japan, and the case for reviving Apex Legends Mobile• Why battle royale modes outperform arena shooters on retention• Gears of War: E-Day's beta numbers and the inevitable Helldivers 2 comparisons• The PvP versus PvE tradeoffs facing E-Day's live service• War Bonds versus battle passes and how Helldivers 2 redefined seasons• Why Arc Raiders can't copy the Helldivers playbook• The West's monetization risk aversion versus the East's willingness to experimentCHAPTERS:01:13 Battle Pass Shakeups02:33 Battlefield Engagement Surge04:13 MAU Charts Breakdown05:28 Why Battlefield Retains06:47 Ranked Mode Returns08:44 Battlefield Next Moves11:04 COD Tech Unification Lessons14:19 Extraction Mode Debate15:35 Apex Revenue and Consistency17:00 Apex Live Ops Machine29:18 BR Movement Thesis30:20 Why Arenas Feel Worse31:17 Social Sandbox vs Zero Sum33:15 TDM Translation Problem34:06 Gears E-Day Catch Up34:54 Market Size and Modes37:07 Helldivers Comparison Debate40:51 Live Service Monetization Risks44:40 Battle Pass Changes Roundup47:51 War Bonds vs Battle Passes52:58 Arc Raiders and Extraction Limits54:33 Western Monetization Fear59:13 Next Episode Tease

Mattel owns Barbie, Hot Wheels, UNO, Masters of the Universe and Street Sharks. Marcus Liassides runs its digital business, which now Roblox, Fortnite, and a licensing program that puts Mattel IP in creators' hands without approving what they build with it. This episode is about how a studio actually gets an IP deal with Mattel, and what you get beyond the logo.00:00 - Why Mattel is at a games summit01:13 - The Roblox bet04:18 - Why studios stay skeptical06:22 - AI and why IP matters more10:46 - What Mattel actually wants pitched13:57 - Where pitches go wrong17:40 - Beyond the license19:15 - MGs, rev share and dev funding23:57 - The approvals question26:44 - Barbie's UA guardrails29:29 - Exclusivity

Rockstar is fighting a leak it cannot plug, and the leaker has turned the whole thing into a token economy.Episode 398 covers a week where the data says growth and the job market says something else. Newzoo puts 2026 at 214 billion, Makers Fund closes another 250 million that looks nothing like venture capital, Google Play turns RAM into a store requirement, and Gamescom hands us Nodusfall, Palworld on mobile via Garena, and one more round of the HD on mobile argument that never ends.Topics Covered:• CyberLeek posts 16 GTA 6 clips and runs crypto-paid polls on what leaks next• Take-Two subpoenas Microsoft, Discord and Google to unmask whoever is behind it• Newzoo's 2026 forecast hits 214 billion with North America growing slowest• Why layoffs keep coming in a market still growing 6 percent• Makers Fund raises 250 million and shifts into project and UA financing• Google Play makes memory optimization a store requirement in February 2027• Opening Night Live and the endless pile of tactics spin-offs• HoYoverse reveals Nodusfall while its mobile portfolio drops 24 percent• Garena picks up Palworld for mobile and Roco Kingdom goes global• Localization and UI as the real barrier for Eastern games in the West• The HD on mobile fight nobody at the table is winningCHAPTERS:01:12 Today’s Topics Rundown02:19 Gamescom Pics and Shoutouts03:01 Sponsor Updates05:57 GTA6 Leeks16:11 Layoffs and Market Maturity20:10 Makers Fund Raises $250M28:18 Google Play RAM PSA29:29 Gamescom Opening Night Live36:16 Western Appeal Debate37:04 Roco Kingdom Goes Global37:47 Palworld Mobile Licensing38:52 Cozy Combat Audience Shift41:35 Portfolio Decline And Cannibalization51:33 Localization And UI Barriers01:01:18 Wrapping Up And Next Week

Everyone's telling you cohort financing is free money to scale. It's not, and the contract fine print is where that story falls apart.Josh Chandley (President & COO, Wildcard Games) sits down with Phil Mohr (CEO & Co-founder, Metica) and Martin Macmillan (Founder, Pollen Capital) to break down what cohort financing actually costs, who really takes the risk, and how founders keep getting burned by deals they don't fully understand. Martin lent almost $1B through Pollen VC with zero credit defaults over a decade. Phil looked at 40-50 games before Metica stopped writing new cohort deals altogether. Between them, they unpack the math the sales guys don't want you to run.Topics Covered:• UA financing vs cohort financing• Why receivables lending scaled down• The 80/20 mechanics of a cohort deal• Who actually takes the risk on a cohort• Cross-collateralization and disguised liens• What makes a good candidate for financing• Breakeven windows and LTV curve shape• The real annualized cost of cohort financing• How financing cost raises your effective CPI• Why finance and UA teams don't align• Getting free debt from your ad networks• Red flags in cohort financing contracts• What happens when a cohort underperforms• Debt plus equity hybrid dealsCHAPTERS: 00:00 Cohort Financing Hype00:36 Meet the Experts02:20 UA Financing Explained03:45 Receivables vs Cohorts05:20 How Cohort Deals Work09:04 Hidden Risks and Recourse11:06 Contract Traps to Watch15:39 Who Qualifies for Funding17:49 Payback Windows Sweet Spot18:54 LTV Curve and Game Types22:45 True Cost and IRR Math29:19 Financing Cost in UA Bids32:15 Data Truth and Real-Time Stops36:09 Cohort Risk And Timing37:01 Free Credit From Ad Networks38:40 Why Credit Lines Aren’t Enough43:42 VC Versus Lender Mindset47:05 Questions For Cohort Lenders53:10 Bad Terms And Red Flags56:40 Evolving Financing Stack59:25 Exit Clauses And Flexibility01:02:42 Modeling Downside Scenarios01:07:54 Debt Plus Equity Strategy01:10:18 Final Advice And Wrap Up

In March 2025, Jon Bellamy became CEO of Jagex and Alexis Bonte became CEO of Stillfront. Both inherited companies with legacy, scale, and a long list of things that needed to go. This episode is about what actually happens in a games industry CEO's first 100 days.Timestamps00:00 - The first 100 days05:24 - Knowing the company09:15 - Cultural shift15:16 - Choosing focus19:33 - Public versus private24:52 - Board communication30:44 - Evaluating leaders36:15 - Head coach mode39:17 - Three success markers

Crew breaks down another packed week in games. Roblox faces mounting pressure over child safety as Congress launches an investigation, Apple rewrites its EU App Store economics while Germany forces changes to ATT, and Netflix Games keeps shrinking with two more studio closures. Meanwhile, Webtoon makes a $100 million bet on gaming, Devolver Digital heads for the exits after a brutal public-market run, and Mishka goes deep on Voodoo’s latest hybrid-casual hit. Topics Covered:• Roblox’s congressional investigation and growing child-safety pressure• Roblox’s Discord problem • What higher opt-in rates could mean for Meta and mobile UA • Apple’s new EU App Store fee structure• Webtoon buying up to 60% of RI Games Holdings • Netflix Games closing Night School Studio and Moonlit • Devolver Digital delisting after its stock fell roughly 97% • Castle Crushers, Voodoo’s hybrid-casual formula and its path toward a $100M run rate • What Voodoo’s evolution says about the French hyper-casual ecosystem• Kingdom Hearts’ new animated series and Kingdom Hearts IV targeting late 2027CHAPTERS:00:00 Welcome and Hosts01:02 Episode Agenda Preview02:37 Jury Duty and Snake Heroics04:03 Seattle SLICE Conference Plug04:48 Mishka Updates and Events06:24 Corrections on Turkey Funding09:21 Roblox Under Investigation14:03 Roblox Safety Measures Debate21:13 ATT Changes in Germany27:18 EU App Store Fee Overhaul36:56 Markets and Monetization37:29 Webtoon Buys Game Studio40:07 Funding and UA Reality43:35 Mid Market Myth Busting46:44 Transmedia LTV Strategy49:36 Netflix Games Retrenchment54:01 Devolver Delisting Lessons56:32 Castle Crushers Deep Dive01:01:11 Voodoo and France Squeeze01:06:14 Wrap and Next Week

Jen sits down with WEBTOON and Square Enix to break down a channel that reaches mobile, PC, and console at once.UA is saturated and everyone is hunting for new reach. WEBTOON has 160 million MAU, about 90% under 34, and roughly 69% of its readers play games across all three platforms. Christine Yu (WEBTOON) and Melanie Gordon (Square Enix) walk through how the Visions of Mana and Dragon Quest VII Reimagined campaigns actually came together, what the branded epilogue format is, how long these collabs take, and how the Coin Hunter offerwall is driving 10,000 verified Steam wishlist adds a week.Topics Covered:• The vertical scroll format and why Gen Z never touched a comic book• 160M MAU and how WEBTOON monetizes like a free to play game• $2.7B paid out to creators and 124,000 new episodes a day• Creators as influencers and why the comment section matters• The branded epilogue and the Visions of Mana collab results• Dragon Quest VII Reimagined and the Tabletop partnership• Timelines, approvals, and what marketers need to bring to the table• Licensing collab creative for paid media, owned social, and UA• Coin Hunter, the offerwall, and pay per verified Steam wishlist• Where WEBTOON sits in the funnel and why ROAS is the wrong first questionCHAPTERS:01:33 — What Is WEBTOON04:21 — Mel's Fan Origin Story06:26 — WEBTOON as an IP Engine09:17 — Creators as Influencers11:24 — Turning Fandom Into a Marketing Channel13:14 — Case Study: Visions of Mana x The Greatest Estate Developer15:20 — Inside the Collab Process17:33 — Western Market Performance20:00 — Case Study: Dragon Quest VII Reimagined x Tabletop24:07 — Campaign Types and Timelines27:32 — Repurposing Collab Content for UA/Social30:18 — What Makes It Feel Authentic (Not Cheesy)32:00 — Performance, ROAS, and Funnel Placement34:00 — Beyond Anime: Genre and Demographic Diversity37:08 — Audience Demographics38:00 — Lower-Funnel Product: Coin Hunter / Steam Wishlist41:00 — What's Next & Wrap-Up Wishlist 42:00 — Recap and Closing (Brandformance)

Affan Butt has advised on 110+ gaming M&A deals worth $40 billion. He breaks down how game studios actually get sold, what acquirers pay for, and why earnouts wreck founders. We go through a studio acquisition from the founder's side of the table. How M&A processes really start, what due diligence looks like, why inbound corp dev interest is not validation, how bidding wars backfire, and the way earnout structures quietly turn against the people who signed them.0:00 Loom Games sale to Scopely3:21 What creates FOMO in a deal10:58 Investment banker in gaming 21:14 Supercell story 26:26 Peak Games story 39:03 Private equity in gaming 42:12 Deal timelines48:21 Due diligence53:54 When to say no to a sale 68:10 Why deals fail74:20 Earnouts and incentives86:28 The changing exit landscape94:35 Where the gaming cycle is now