The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine

Major AI companies can increase or reduce global catastrophic risks.https://www.cold-takes.com/what-ai-companies-can-do-today-to-help-with-the-most-important-century/

People are far better at their jobs than at anything else. Here are the best ways to help the most important century go well.https://www.cold-takes.com/jobs-that-can-help-with-the-most-important-century/

For people who want to help improve our prospects for navigating transformative AI, and have an audience (even a small one).https://www.cold-takes.com/spreading-messages-to-help-with-the-most-important-century/

Hypothetical stories where the world tries, but fails, to avert a global disaster.https://www.cold-takes.com/how-we-could-stumble-into-ai-catastrophe

An overview of key potential factors (not just alignment risk) for whether things go well or poorly with transformative AI.https://www.cold-takes.com/transformative-ai-issues-not-just-misalignment-an-overview/

Push AI forward too fast, and catastrophe could occur. Too slow, and someone else less cautious could do it. Is there a safe course?https://www.cold-takes.com/racing-through-a-minefield-the-ai-deployment-problem/

A few ways we might get very powerful AI systems to be safe.https://www.cold-takes.com/high-level-hopes-for-ai-alignment/

Four analogies for why "We don't see any misbehavior by this AI" isn't enough.https://www.cold-takes.com/ai-safety-seems-hard-to-measure/

Today's AI development methods risk training AIs to be deceptive, manipulative and ambitious. This might not be easy to fix as it comes up.https://www.cold-takes.com/why-would-ai-aim-to-defeat-humanity/

We scored mid-20th-century sci-fi writers on nonfiction predictions. They weren't great, but weren't terrible either. Maybe doing futurism works fine.https://www.cold-takes.com/the-track-record-of-futurists-seems-fine/