Caerphilly by-election: 'a tale of two faces'

On the face of it, the Caerphilly by-election result is a disaster, a drubbing and a humiliation for Keir Starmer’s Labour party. A once secure bastion of the Welsh Labour heartlands fell without a squeak from the governing party. Their vote collapsed to a miserable 11 per cent, while Plaid Cymru won with 47 per cent and Reform surged to second place with 36 per cent. The result suggests Labour is on course to surrender a boatload of seats at the 2029 general election, both to Reform and to whatever protest party is best suited to beat the government around the head – be it Plaid, the Greens, the Corbynites, the Islamist independents or the SNP. But is there good news for the PM beyond the headlines? Lucy Dunn speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With every new poll predicting a Reform win at the next general election, the party continues its preparation for government. James Heale joins Oscar Edmondson and Tim Shipman to talk about his article in the magazine looking at what – or who – is shaping Reform’s intellectual revolution. Cambridge intellectual James Orr, close friend to J.D. Vance, has recently joined as an adviser, following in the footsteps of recent defector Danny Kruger, who was widely seen as an intellectual heavyweight on Conservative benches. Tim also discusses his piece looking at the narrative Rachel Reeves is trying to set ahead of next month’s budget. Tim says she has four audiences and is trying to direct the blame elsewhere – namely at the Conservatives. But, with no end in sight for Britain’s economic doom loop – and as Farage tries to boost the economic credibility of Reform, could voters start to look elsewhere for some shock medicine?Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Oscar Edmondson.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We’ve just had PMQs, which have become much more interesting now that Kemi Badenoch has got her act together. She led on the Grooming Gangs Inquiry after a fourth survivor quit the inquiry over fears that it’s being watered down. She went as far as to say that the government is in a ‘briefing war against survivors’, and accused Labour of a ‘cover-up’. Nigel Farage attempted to upstage proceedings with his own stunt – he watched from the public gallery to make the point that he isn’t given the chance to defend himself or his party. However, Badenoch’s display meant that his tantrum has gone pretty much unnoticed. Is Kemi on the front foot?Also today, Starmer’s new go-to girl Louise Casey is back in the news as she joins the inquiry. She has been mooted as a potential successor to Chris Wormald, the Cabinet Secretary. There has been a lot of briefing against Wormald – who was a perplexing pick in the first instance – but if they don’t want him why not ‘sack him … and find him an Oxford college(!)’, as Tim suggests?Oscar Edmondson speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rachel Reeves is hosting an investment summit in Birmingham, trying to turn the narrative away from Britain's economic 'doom loop' ahead of next month's budget. But the harbinger of bad economic news Michael Simmons – who joins James Heale and Patrick Gibbons on the podcast – points to the news today of soaring government borrowing costs, and expected higher inflation figures tomorrow. Plus, what have some politicians made of further developments in the Prince Andrew scandal?Produced by Patrick Gibbons. Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There have been lots of movements in foreign affairs over the weekend, including a potential collapse of the Gaza peace deal, a Trump–Putin bilateral and new revelations about the China spy case. But closer to home, all eyes are on Kent Council, Reform’s flagship administrative project run by Linden Kemkaran (formerly of this parish).Over the weekend, a Zoom call was leaked to the Guardian, in which council leader Kemkaran used some choice language – many are calling it a Jackie Weaver moment, if you can cast your mind back to 2021. Labour have put out a press release and the Lib Dems are apparently going to capitalise on it with something Traitors-themed, in an attempt to demonstrate that, for all their success in the polls, Reform can’t govern. Will this cut through?Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and Tim Shipman.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

To mark the centenary of Thatcher’s birth, Michael Gove is joined by Charles Moore, her biographer, and Peggy Noonan, speechwriter to Ronald Reagan, to reflect on the chemistry that bound the two conservative leaders. Both outsiders turned reformers, they shared not only ideology but temperament – ‘They were partners in crime,’ says Peggy.Yet it wasn’t all harmony. As Charles notes, the pair weathered serious rifts – over nuclear weapons, Grenada and the Falklands. Even in disagreement, they ‘wanted the same thing … to defeat the Soviet Union without fighting’. How did they navigate their differences? And what lessons can we learn from their special relationship?Produced by Natasha Feroze and Oscar Edmondson.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's been a rough week for the government: the row over the collapsed Chinese spy trial has rolled on, all while the Chancellor has been trying to lay the groundwork ahead of next month's budget. Then, overnight, another issue has emerged as fans of the Maccabi Tel Aviv football team have been banned from attending a football game against Aston Villa next month, leading to accusations of antisemitism.Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons join James Heale to discuss the day's developments. Tim reveals how the Chinese spy row has been picked up by American legislators, threatening to undermine the Five Eyes security alliance. Meanwhile Michael points out that the news that the IMF has upgraded UK growth forecasts – to the second fastest growing of the G7 – might not be all it seems.Produced by Patrick Gibbons.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tim Shipman's bombshell cover piece for the magazine this week explains how the collapsed spy trial blew up in the government’s face. As well as raising ‘serious questions’ about Keir Starmer’s judgment and Jonathan Powell’s role, ‘the affair reveals a Whitehall tendency to cover up the gory details of foreign spying in the UK’. According to Tim, four ‘highly credible sources in the upper echelons of the last government… have revealed that far worse scandals have been hushed up’. One, involving Russia, was suppressed ‘to avoid embarrassing a former prime minister’. The ‘most catastrophic breach’ saw China purchase a company that controlled a data hub used by Whitehall departments – thereby enabling Beijing to steal lots of sensitive and even highly classified information. This makes the abandonment of the Cash/Berry case all the odder. Tim discusses, with James Heale. Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Keir Starmer did not go into Prime Minister’s Questions with the intention of resolving the row over the collapse of the Chinese spying case: he merely wanted to avoid the pressure building too much. He announced in a long statement at the start of the session that the government would be publishing its three witness statements, and then spent the rest of his sparring with Kemi Badenoch arguing that this was all the fault of the previous government anyway. So who is to blame, the Tories or Labour? What does the inability to deal with this scandal say about the ineptitude of successive governments, and how they communicate with the public?James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Oscar EdmondsonBecome a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tim Shipman and Charles Parton, China adviser at the Council on Geostrategy, join James Heale to discuss the ongoing fallout over the collapse of the Westminster spy case. Security minister Dan Jarvis answered an urgent question on the matter late on Monday in Parliament, stringently denying that the government played an active role in collapsing the case. But, as Charles and Tim stress, the case still doesn't add up. Is it as simple as the government not wanting to offend China? And is the deputy national security adviser being 'hung out to dry'?Produced by Patrick Gibbons.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.