China has been implementing targeted pro-consumption measures to spur immediate spending while advancing structural reforms to unlock sustainable consumption growth, as the country moves toward a more balanced growth model anchored by its vast domestic market, economists said.
经济学家指出,中国正实施有针对性的促进消费措施以刺激即时支出,同时推进结构性改革以释放可持续消费增长潜力。随着中国朝着以广阔国内市场为支撑的更均衡增长模式迈进,这些举措将发挥关键作用。
They said that a robust and expanding consumer base not only powers China's high-quality development, but also provides a stabilizing force for the global economy amid fluctuating external demand and geopolitical complexities.
他们指出,庞大且不断扩大的消费群体不仅推动着中国的高质量发展,更在全球外部需求波动和地缘政治复杂化的背景下,为世界经济提供了稳定力量。
At the annual Central Economic Work Conference held last week, Chinese policymakers placed "boosting domestic demand" first among eight key priorities on the economic agenda for next year.
在上周召开的年度中央经济工作会议上,中国决策者将“扩大内需”列为明年经济议程八大重点任务之首。
President Xi Jinping pointed out in an article published on Monday in Qiushi Journal, the flagship magazine of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, that expanding domestic demand is crucial not only for economic stability but also for economic security. It is not a temporary measure, but a strategic move, he said.
习近平主席在周一发表于中共中央机关刊物《求是》杂志的文章中指出,扩大内需不仅关乎经济稳定,更关乎经济安全。他强调,这并非权宜之计,而是战略举措。
Xi, who is also general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, called for accelerating efforts to address weaknesses in domestic demand, especially consumption, to make domestic demand the main driving force and stabilizing anchor for economic growth.
习近平同时担任中共中央总书记,他呼吁加快解决国内需求薄弱环节,特别是消费领域的问题,使国内需求成为经济增长的主要驱动力和稳定锚。
Robert Koopman, former chief economist of the World Trade Organization, said that over the next five to 10 years, "an important evolution in China's role is going to be to shift toward being a big center of demand".
世界贸易组织前首席经济学家罗伯特·库普曼表示,未来五到十年间,“中国角色将发生重要演变,逐步转向成为重要的需求中心”。
Analysts said that targeted measures to stimulate consumption remain necessary in the near term, as the latest data points to slowing growth of retail sales. In November, total retail sales of consumer goods, a gauge of consumption, registered a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percent, down 1.6 percentage points compared with October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
分析师指出,鉴于最新数据显示零售额增速放缓,短期内仍需采取有针对性的措施刺激消费。国家统计局数据显示,作为消费风向标的11月社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%,较10月增速回落1.6个百分点。
On Sunday, the Ministry of Commerce, along with the People's Bank of China, which is China's central bank, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration, jointly released a document pledging stronger financial support for consumer spending.
周日,商务部联合中国人民银行(中国央行)和国家金融监督管理总局共同发布文件,承诺将加大对消费支出的金融支持力度。
In the document, financial institutions were encouraged to refine their services for consumption on big-ticket goods, while for the services sector, the document emphasized innovative financial products targeting industries such as elderly care, catering, tourism and education.
该文件鼓励金融机构完善针对大宗商品消费的服务,同时强调服务行业应推出创新金融产品,重点面向养老、餐饮、旅游和教育等领域。
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher at Merchants Union Consumer Finance Co, said that front-loading of such support weeks before the new year is designed to secure early economic momentum and set a positive trajectory for 2026.
招商银行消费金融公司首席研究员董希淼表示,在新年到来前数周提前推出此类支持措施,旨在确保经济早日获得动能,为2026年奠定积极发展轨迹。
In particular, the move, launched ahead of the Spring Festival shopping season in mid-February, signaled a strategic effort to harness the year's peak consumption period, Dong added.
董希淼补充道,这项举措特别选在二月中旬春节购物季前启动,标志着企业正采取战略性举措,力求把握年度消费高峰期。
Analysts view the latest move as part of a calibrated "one-two punch" for consumption, pairing targeted financial support with extended trade-in programs through 2026.
分析师认为,此番举措是刺激消费的精心策划的“组合拳”,将定向金融支持与延长至2026年的以旧换新计划相结合。
Han Wenxiu, executive deputy director of the Office of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs, told a news conference on Saturday that China should "adapt to the evolving consumption structure by expanding the supply of high-quality goods and services, and optimize the implementation of the trade-in policies".
中央财经委员会办公室副主任韩文秀周六在记者会上表示,中国应“通过扩大优质商品和服务供给适应消费结构变化,优化以旧换新政策实施”。
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, from January to November this year, trade-in programs pushed sales of related goods beyond 2.5 trillion yuan ($355 billion), benefiting more than 360 million people.
据商务部数据显示,今年1至11月,以旧换新活动带动相关商品销售额突破2.5万亿元(约合3550亿美元),惠及超过3.6亿人。
Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, said that next year's trade-ins could incorporate a wider range of products, particularly those with artificial intelligence features. Wang suggested scaling up the annual funding pool to 500 billion yuan — an increase from this year's 300 billion yuan.
金信评级首席宏观分析师王青表示,明年的以旧换新政策可能涵盖更广泛的产品,特别是具备人工智能功能的产品。王青建议将年度资金池规模扩大至5000亿元人民币——较今年的3000亿元有所增加。
In late November, China unveiled a plan to improve the alignment of the supply and demand of consumer goods, highlighting the application of AI across all sectors and processes of the consumer goods industry.
11月下旬,中国公布了一项优化消费品供需匹配的计划,强调人工智能技术将全面应用于消费品行业的各个领域和生产环节。
"More important, the scope of support could broaden beyond durable goods to encompass a wide range of service sectors such as childhood education," Wang added.
王青补充道:“更重要的是,支持范围可能从耐用品扩展到涵盖儿童教育等广泛的服务领域。”
Structural reforms
结构化改革
Besides short-term measures, analysts emphasized that sustaining consumer strength will increasingly depend on deeper structural reforms, including raising household income, strengthening the social safety net and improving livelihoods.
除短期措施外,分析师强调,维持消费韧性将日益依赖更深层次的结构性改革,包括提高居民收入、强化社会安全网以及改善民生。
To this end, the tone-setting meeting last week explicitly advocated "increased incomes for urban and rural residents".
为此,上周的定调会议明确倡导“提高城乡居民收入”。
Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said that "the policy focus is gradually evolving from simple stimulus to bolstering both the capacity and willingness of households to spend".
中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示:“政策重点正逐步从单纯的刺激转向增强家庭消费能力和意愿。”
Wen pointed to potential measures such as adjusting personal income tax thresholds, maintaining steady growth in social welfare spending, and advancing policies that promote high-quality employment as key to enabling durable consumption growth.
温彬指出了若干潜在措施,包括调整个人所得税起征点、保持社会福利支出稳定增长、推进促进高质量就业的政策,这些措施是实现消费持续增长的关键。
China has also been proactively encouraging inbound consumption to enhance the resilience of its domestic market through the "Shopping in China" campaign, fueled by China's unilateral visa-free policies for various countries and a new initiative allowing eligible travelers to receive instant tax refunds.
中国还通过“中国购物”活动积极鼓励入境消费,以增强国内市场的韧性。该活动得益于中国对多个国家实施的单方面免签政策,以及一项允许符合条件的旅客即时退税的新举措。
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