Record-Low Placements and a Market Rebound

Record-low cattle placements are raising questions about when herd expansion will truly begin, while Virginia feeder cattle markets finally posted their first monthly gain since spring. In this episode of CattlePulse, host Elijah Griles breaks down the latest cattle on feed numbers, what they reveal about cattle supplies and producer behavior, and why strong consumer demand continues to support the market. Plus, get the latest update on Virginia drought conditions and feeder cattle prices.In This EpisodeNovember feeder cattle futures reached $333/cwt, up 0.7% from last month, while January futures climbed 0.9% to $326.50/cwt.The latest Cattle on Feed Report showed record-low September placements, the lowest for that month since data collection began in 1996, signaling continued tight feeder cattle supplies.Despite discussion of herd rebuilding, the heifer share on feed remains at 37.8%, suggesting widespread expansion has yet to begin.Lower cow and heifer slaughter rates may indicate producers are holding onto breeding stock longer to capitalize on historically strong calf prices.Research from Kansas State University highlights the outsized role of beef demand, showing that stronger consumer demand can have an even greater impact on feeder cattle prices than supply changes.Virginia drought conditions continue to improve, with 45% of the state now drought-free, though portions of Southside Virginia remain in drought.Virginia's six-market feeder cattle average rose to $391.90/cwt, up 3.8% from September and ending a five-month slide.October marked the first year since 2023 that Virginia feeder cattle prices increased from September to October, a sign of unusual seasonal strength.Resources MentionedVirginia Farm Bureau Hay ResourcesUSDA Cattle on Feed ReportKenny Burdine's Cattle Market Notes, University of KentuckyKansas State University Meat Demand MonitorU.S. Drought MonitorNOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooksCattlePulse is produced by Virginia Farm Bureau. Have a question or topic suggestion? Email [email protected].

Cattle markets have faced a challenging stretch over the past two months, with feeder cattle prices pulling back amid several bearish developments. In this episode of CattlePulse, host Elijah Griles breaks down three key factors weighing on the market: expanded beef imports, the reopening of Mexican feeder cattle imports, and recent reductions in U.S. beef packing capacity.Despite those headwinds, there are still reasons for optimism. Elijah discusses why beef demand remains remarkably strong, even with record-high retail prices, and what tight cattle supplies could mean for the longer-term outlook. Plus, get the latest update on Virginia drought conditions and Virginia feeder cattle markets.In this episode:• Feeder cattle futures rebounded from recent lows, with October futures up 5.6% and November futures up 6.7% from the previous month.• The Trump Administration's beef import plan is allowing 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings into the U.S. without out-of-quota tariffs, raising concerns among cattle producers.• USDA has reopened cattle imports from Mexico through select border crossings, potentially increasing feeder cattle supplies in the coming months.• Beef packing capacity has tightened following recent plant closures and operational reductions, adding another source of market uncertainty.• Beef demand remains resilient despite record retail prices, with consumers continuing to show a willingness to pay for beef.• Virginia drought conditions have improved significantly thanks to recent rainfall, although portions of the state remain in severe to extreme drought.• Virginia feeder calf prices continued to soften, with the six-market average falling 6.2% from August to September.• For the first time since CattlePulse launched in 2023, Virginia's September feeder calf average was below the same month a year earlier.Resources Mentioned• USDA feeder cattle import updates• USDA beef import quota announcements• Kansas State Meat Demand Monitor• U.S. Drought Monitor• NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlook• Market analysis from Dr. James Mitchell and Dr. Stephen KoontzCattlePulse is produced by Virginia Farm Bureau. Have a question or topic suggestion? Email [email protected].

This month on CattlePulse, host Elijah Griles breaks down the latest cattle market developments, including the first signs of herd rebuilding in years, USDA's plan to reopen the Mexican border to feeder cattle imports, and what declining beef prices could mean for demand. Plus, Elijah talks with Dr. Alan Young of Medgene about the Asian longhorned tick and a new vaccine designed to combat Theileria orientalis Ikeda.In this episode:Feeder cattle futures softened in July, with the August contract at $353/cwt. and September at $348/cwt., down 2% and 3% month-over-month, respectivelyThe July Cattle Inventory Report showed total U.S. cattle inventory at 94.2 million head, up 200,000 head from last year and marking the first July inventory increase since 2018Beef cow numbers were estimated at 28.5 million head, the lowest July total since the report began in 1973Beef replacement heifers increased 3% year-over-year to 3.8 million head, providing the first meaningful evidence of heifer retention and potential herd rebuilding in nearly a decadeDespite signs of expansion, the 2026 calf crop was estimated at just 32.5 million head, down 2% from last year and the smallest calf crop on recordUSDA announced a phased reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border to feeder cattle imports beginning August 24 at Douglas, Arizona, following more than a year of closure due to New World Screwworm concernsA new sterile male screwworm fly production facility in Mexico is expected to strengthen long-term eradication effortsBoxed beef prices have declined roughly 10% since July 4th, raising questions about whether beef demand is beginning to soften beyond the typical post-holiday seasonal slowdownDr. Alan Young explains how the invasive Asian longhorned tick spreads Theileria orientalis Ikeda and why the parasite poses a growing threat to cattle healthTheileria infection can suppress the immune system, cause anemia, reduce fertility, lower performance, and increase susceptibility to secondary infectionsMedgene recently introduced the first U.S. vaccine targeting Theileria orientalis IkedaThe vaccine is designed primarily for naïve calves and is most effective as part of a whole-herd health strategyVaccination currently requires a two-dose series administered three to four weeks apart, with future boosters likely needed to maintain protectionProducers interested in the vaccine should consult their veterinarian, as it is available by prescriptionMedgene Disclaimer: Potency and efficacy of prescription platform product biologics have not been established. This product is prepared for use only by a veterinarian prescription. Medgene’s prescription platform system ensures that all the ingredients that go into our vaccines are animal origin free.Resources mentioned:USDA July Cattle Inventory ReportUSDA APHIS New World Screwworm UpdatesMedgene LabsVirginia weather and markets:Drought conditions improved modestly across parts of Virginia, with 11% of the state now drought-freeSevere drought remains across portions of the Blue Ridge, Northern Virginia, and Southside, while 4% of the state remains in extreme droughtNOAA's August outlook calls for near-normal precipitation and a 33-40% chance of above-normal temperaturesVirginia's six-market average for 500-pound feeder steers was $427.92/cwt. in July, down 6% from June but still 16% above year-ago levelsPersonal note:There will be no September episode of CattlePulse as Elijah takes paternity leave to welcome his first child. The show will return in October.Have a question or topic suggestion?CattlePulse is produced by Virginia Farm Bureau. Email Elijah at [email protected].

CattlePulse is taking a road trip. This month, host Elijah Griles visits Virginia Tech for the third annual Virginia Beef Cattle University, where producers, students, industry professionals, and educators gathered to learn, network, and discuss some of the biggest issues facing the cattle industry today.In this episode, Elijah sits down with Emily Bowman of the Virginia Beef Center of Excellence, University of Kentucky livestock economist Dr. Kenny Burdine, and Dr. M. Wayne Ayers of Elanco Animal Health to discuss cattle markets, profitability, drought, and the ongoing response to New World Screwworm.In this episode:Virginia Beef Cattle University brought together producers from Virginia and surrounding states for three days of workshops, educational sessions, networking opportunities, and industry discussionsEmily Bowman highlights the event's hands-on workshops, including meat science demonstrations, carcass evaluations, sensory panels, and producer-focused educational sessionsDr. Kenny Burdine says cattle market fundamentals remain strong, with tight cattle supplies continuing to support profitability across the industryBurdine encourages producers to think strategically about reinvesting profits through facility improvements, grazing infrastructure, genetics, debt reduction, and building working capital—not just herd expansionConsumer demand remains a key market concern as beef prices stay high and competing proteins like pork and poultry may expand production more quickly than the cattle industryDr. Wayne Ayers explains the biology and threat of New World Screwworm, a parasitic fly whose larvae feed on living tissue in livestock and wildlifeAs of the conference, Texas had confirmed 33 New World Screwworm cases, with control efforts focused on animal movement restrictions, producer vigilance, and the sterile insect techniqueProducers are encouraged to educate themselves on New World Screwworm identification and pay close attention to wounds caused by procedures such as ear tagging, castration, injections, and brandingVirginia drought conditions worsened following the July heat wave, with 26% of the state classified in extreme drought, 40% in severe drought, and 32% in moderate droughtNOAA CPC's July outlook indicates a 50–60% chance of above-normal temperatures across most of Virginia, while precipitation chances remain near normalVirginia feeder calf markets softened in June, with the six-market average for 500-pound steers at $455.10/cwt., down 1.3% from MayLimited pasture conditions and drought stress may be reducing buyer demand for backgrounding cattle despite historically strong cattle pricesResources mentioned:Virginia Beef Cattle UniversityCattle Market Notes WeeklyScrewworm.govU.S. Drought MonitorCattlePulse is produced by Virginia Farm Bureau. Have a question or topic suggestion? Email Elijah at [email protected].

Feeder cattle futures took a sharp turn this month, as markets reacted to a major animal health development — and drought concerns continue to weigh on producers. In this episode, host Elijah Griles breaks down the New World Screwworm detection in Texas, what it means for markets and trade, and the latest Cattle on Feed report. Plus, Elijah shares an update on Virginia drought conditions and local cash markets.In this episode:Feeder cattle futures have been volatile — August at $349/cwt and September at $346/cwt, both down roughly 5% month-over-month before rebounding on news of a New World Screwworm detectionUSDA confirmed New World Screwworm in a Texas calf, triggering a 12-mile infestation zone and increased surveillance along with continued sterile fly dispersalThe May Cattle on Feed report showed 11.6 million head on feed, up 2% year-over-year — the first increase in 18 months, with placements up 6% and marketings down 10%Drought is impacting more than 70% of the U.S. cattle herd, raising questions about expansion and increasing feed, hay, and water costsBeef demand remains strong despite record prices — retail beef averaged $9.64/lb. in April, while demand is up 7% year-over-year and 39% over the past seven yearsVirginia drought conditions persist: 25% of the state is in extreme drought and 59% in severe drought, with limited relief in the near-term climate outlookVirginia feeder calf prices softened slightly — the six-market average came in at $461/cwt, down 1.7% from last monthMarket outlook hinges on competing pressures: tighter supplies vs. drought-driven early sales and reduced buyer demandResources mentioned:USDA APHIS updates on New World ScrewwormUSDA Cattle on Feed Report (May 2026)Livestock Market Information Center (LMIC) beef demand dataU.S. Drought MonitorNOAA Climate Prediction Center outlookEvent mention:Virginia Beef Cattle University — July 8–10Register at: vabeefcattleu.comCattlePulse is produced by Virginia Farm Bureau. Have a question or topic suggestion? Email Elijah at [email protected].

Feeder cattle prices are at historic highs — but challenges are mounting. In this month's episode, host Elijah Griles breaks down the latest futures markets, unpacks what a softening choice-select spread could mean for beef demand, and shares drought conditions across the Commonwealth. Plus, Elijah talks with Gene Copenhaver, newly elected president of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association and a Washington County native at the Virginia Beef Expo.In this episode:Feeder cattle futures are trading in the low $370s, with May at $372, August at $373, and September at $371 — all up roughly 1% from a month agoThe April Cattle on Feed report showed 11.6 million head on feed as of April 1st, down 1% from a year ago, with placements down 7% and marketings down 6%Heifers on feed came in at 37.3% — slightly above the 20-year average — with a downward trend over the last 2–3 years that may signal early heifer retentionThe choice-select spread has narrowed significantly in 2026, hovering between $0–$10 and even turning negative at points, raising questions about softening consumer demand for higher-quality beef grades80% of Virginia is in severe drought, with 18% of the state in extreme droughtVirginia feeder calf prices surged again — the six-market average for 500 lb. Medium & Large #1 steers hit $469/cwt, up 3.1% from last month, with Winchester approaching $500/cwtNCBA President Gene Copenhaver shares his priorities: supporting the next generation of cattle producers, easing farm transition costs, and navigating the ongoing drought and border reopening questionsResources mentioned:Kenny Burdine's Cattle Market Notes weekly newsletter (University of Kentucky)USDA Cattle on Feed Report (April 2026)NOAA Climate Prediction Center May outlookU.S. Drought MonitorAgriStress helpline: call or text 833-897-2474CattlePulse is produced by Virginia Farm Bureau. Have a question or topic suggestion? Email Elijah at [email protected].

In this month’s episode of CattlePulse, host Elijah Griles talks with American Farm Bureau economist Bernt Nelson about whether fertlizer prices will come down as quickly as they went up and the benefits and risks of Product of the USA labeling.For Market Intel's from American Farm Bureau, click here.We want to hear from you!Have a question or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future episode?Email Elijah at [email protected].

In this month’s episode of CattlePulse, host Elijah Griles unpacks the factors behind the recent futures contract dip, looks at how consumer demand is holding up to record high retail prices, and highlights another month of record high feeder calf prices.We want to hear from you!Have a question or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future episode?Email Elijah at [email protected].

In this month’s episode of CattlePulse, host Elijah Griles unpacks USDA's cattle inventory report, focusing on a significant increase in beef replacement heifers in Virginia. He also details another record month for Virginia feeder steers, despite winter storms cancelling sales.We want to hear from you!Have a question or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future episode? Email Elijah at [email protected].

In this month’s episode of CattlePulse, host Elijah Griles looks back at 2025’s price trends and breaks down what they could mean for Virginia herds in 2026. He also dives into the worsening drought conditions and highlights the month of January's low prices.We want to hear from you!Have a question or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future episode? Email Elijah at [email protected].