From the Economist's Chair: Oil in Focus episode 4 - A Fork in the Road

What’s driving record diesel prices and unexpectedly tight gasoline markets in Europe? Join George Maher-Bonnett (Deputy Editor, Argus European Products), Josh Michalowski (Diesel Reporter) and Atishya Nayak (Senior Gasoline Reporter) as they examine the supply disruptions, shifting trade flows and changing demand patterns reshaping Europe’s road fuels markets.  In this episode, our experts discuss how geopolitical tensions, low inventories, refinery maintenance and seasonal demand trends are keeping diesel and gasoline markets unusually tight, and what market participants should watch as Europe heads into winter.  Listen to discover: Why diesel and gasoline markets remain under pressure The key supply and demand drivers behind recent price strength How changing trade flows are impacting fuel availability across Europe What the outlook is for road fuels markets in the months ahead

In this episode, Guo Harn Hong (Argus Global Lead for Base Oils) is joined by Chu Ren Tan (Senior Base Oils Analyst), Li Li Chng (Associate Editor, Base Oils), Tara Tang (Associate Editor, Base Oils & Waxes) and Victor Hu (Senior Analyst) to discuss how geopolitical tensions, logistical disruptions and shifting trade flows continue to reshape Asia-Pacific base oils markets. While new capacity additions across the region have eased some supply pressures, the lubricant supply chain remains under strain as refiners optimise output streams and downstream blending economics evolve.   The discussion explores the impact of changing crude and base oil trade flows, refinery strategies affecting product availability, and the opportunities emerging for market participants amid ongoing disruption.   Key themes: Geopolitical tensions and logistical challenges reshaping crude and base oil trade flows New Asia-Pacific capacity easing supply constraints, but not fully resolving market disruption Refinery optimisation and its impact on base oil production and lubricant supply chains Emerging trade opportunities amid shifting regional market dynamics

In this week's Strait Talk, Argus experts examine a series of developments that could reshape energy markets, from reported peace talks between US representatives and Iran to signs that Saudi Arabia may soon restart crude shipments through its critical East-West pipeline.

As compras de fertilizantes para a segunda safra de milho 2026-27 do Brasil se aceleraram, mas preços acima do esperado pelos agricultores e a ampla janela de compras mantêm as importações de nitrogênio abaixo do nível do ano anterior.  Acompanhe a conversa entre Renata Cardarelli e Gisele Augusto, que produzem o relatório Argus Brasil Grãos e Fertilizantes.   Os tópicos discutidos neste episódio incluem:   Parcela das necessidades já supridas de fertilizantes para a safrinha  Queda de preços cria oportunidade de compra Guerra no Oriente Média e restrições da China às exportações  Preferência por sulfato de amônio El Niño e limitações no crédito agrícola:  Perspectiva e reposição de estoques

Purchases of fertilizers for Brazil's 2026-27 second corn crop have accelerated, but prices remain higher than farmers expected and the extended purchasing window is keeping nitrogen imports below last year's levels. Listen to the discussion between Renata Cardarelli and Gisele Augusto, who produce the Argus Brazil Grains and Fertilizersreport. Topics covered in this episode include:   The share of fertilizer requirements already secured for the second corn crop Lower prices creating buying opportunities The Middle East conflict and China's export restrictions Preference for ammonium sulfate El Niño and agricultural credit constraints Market outlook and inventory replenishment strategy

Freight rates have gone vertical. With tanker costs doubling in September and new threats to Saudi export infrastructure, the economics of oil trade are changing fast. This week on Strait Talk, Argus experts unpack the freight crisis, the growing pressure on Red Sea and Hormuz shipping routes, and what it means for global oil markets. In this week's episode, Tom Reed is joined by John Olett, Head of EMEA Freight, and Nader Itayim, Head of Dubai Editorial examine the military, shipping and market developments shaping Middle East crude flows.

Geopolitics drives mineral markets. Ed Conwayjoins Argus to explore trade wars, rare earths, and if the West can rebuild critical mineral supply chains. The US Gulf Coast gasoline market has undergone notable shifts in 2026, driven by the lasting effects of the US-Iran conflict, changing domestic fuel movements and the seasonal transition to higher-RVP winter gasoline specifications. In this episode of Driving Discussions, Argus experts examine how the temporary Jones Act waiver reshaped Gulf Coast gasoline and blendstock flows, redirecting volumes from the Bahamas to direct shipments between US ports and increasing movements to both the West Coast and Atlantic Coast. The discussion also explores how tightening inventories, strong export demand and ongoing supply concerns have continued to support gasoline prices, even as the summer driving season comes to an end. As the market moves through the fall RVP transition, our specialists analyze evolving blending economics, changing demand for key gasoline components and the supply factors that market participants should watch in the months ahead. Key topics covered: How the US-Iran conflict and Jones Act waiver reshaped Gulf Coast gasoline and blendstock trade flows Why Florida and the Atlantic Coast have become key drivers of Gulf Coast gasoline demand The supply, inventory and export trends supporting gasoline prices despite seasonal demand declines How the fall transition to higher-RVP gasoline is changing blending economics and component demand What refiners, traders and market participants should monitor as regional supply balances evolve Tune in for expert analysis of the market dynamics shaping the US Gulf Coast gasoline sector and the outlook for pricing, trade flows and blending economics heading into the winter gasoline season.

Physical vs. paper disconnect. Crude, diesel and freight markets are signalling stress that futures prices aren't yet capturing — driven by Middle East pipeline disruptions and restricted flows through critical maritime chokepoints. Fragile recovery reversing. A tentative summer rebound in regional exports is losing ground as shipping attacks intensify and instability spreads along key routes. A genuine fork in the road. Either flows are restored and inventories rebuild gradually, or exports fall further — forcing rebalancing through demand destruction: price shocks first, then a broader economic slowdown.

Argus spot prices for the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide are currently ten times higher in the US than in China. Such a gap reflects a world where geopolitics is increasingly shaping commodity markets. But as broadcaster and author Ed Conway argues, the weaponisation of trade, for critical minerals and beyond, is as old as trade itself. In this episode, Ed joins Argus battery materials reporter Chris Welch to discuss his new book, Trade World: The Ties That Bound Our Past and Could Unravel Our Future, exploring whether the global trade is unravelling after all and whether Europe and the US can rebuild their critical minerals industries once again. Key topics include: Why China's rare earth export controls are not new Can Western carmakers build knowledge in partnerships with China? Why pricing power has shifted from carmakers to their suppliers How BYD resembles Henry Ford's vision for cars The impact of declining standardisation of traded goods on pricing

Rotterdam’s record-low VLSFO sales reveal how quickly Europe’s marine fuel market is being reshaped by forces at home and abroad. In this episode, Josh Michalowski (Diesel Reporter, Argus European Products) speaks with Bob Wigin (Fuel Oil Reporter, Argus European Products) about the changing balance between VLSFO and HSFO as RED III alters bunker economics and geopolitical disruption reshapes supply. Key themes: Regulatory impact on European bunker demand Middle East disruption redirects European VLSFO to Asia-Pacific Russian VGO tightness and marine fuel blending