Satya Nadella on the AI Doomer Slowdown, Microsoft's Master Plan & Who Wins AI

(0:00) VP JD Vance joins The Besties! (1:40) Assessing the Trump Admin so far: Border control, re-industrialization, inflation, Iran, government debt, anti-fraud (9:28) AI approach: Dealing with Doomerism, "Frankenstein," and AI negativity (16:23) H-1B abuse and the massive $1T+ of fraud in federal spending (21:48) Relationship with Israel, rational foreign policy (25:19) JD Vance's midterms message Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. https://iren.com/ Oracle connects the data, applications, and infrastructure that turn AI into business outcomes—with the flexibility, choice, and control to optimize as AI evolves. http://oracle.com/ai EY helps tech innovators scale from startup to exit to megacap. You build the future. We'll handle the rest. http://www.ey.com Meta believes the future is for everyone. We're focused on giving every person the tools to reach their full potential and making sure the benefits of technology are distributed to all. http://www.meta.com Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America. https://keelinfra.com/ Airwallex - Agentic Global Business Accounts. Open local accounts in 70+ countries to accept payments, earn yield, pay globally, and manage spend. http://airwallex.com PayPal has been revolutionizing commerce globally for more than 25 years. Creating innovative experiences that make moving money, selling, and shopping simple, personalized, and secure, PayPal empowers consumers and businesses in approximately 200 markets to join and thrive in the global economy. For more information, visit https://www.paypal.com Google for Startups connects founders with the right people, products, and best practices to help startups build faster and go further. https://startup.google.com/ Explore ideas, industries, and technologies worth understanding with Chamath every week on Learn with Me: https://research.socialcapital.com/allin Follow Vice President Vance: https://x.com/JDVance Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

(0:00) Satya Nadella joins The Besties! (0:55) Dario's blog, "pacing the frontier," common sense AI safety (6:28) The failure of AI CEO messaging, monitoring agents, what will a slowdown mean for new AI products? (14:22) Economic incentives for frontier lab doomerism, where the AI profits are (22:45) Microsoft's master plan for AI, how they are allocating capital (31:00) China's slow down, changing AI perception, data center benefits Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. https://iren.com/ Oracle connects the data, applications, and infrastructure that turn AI into business outcomes—with the flexibility, choice, and control to optimize as AI evolves. http://oracle.com/ai EY helps tech innovators scale from startup to exit to megacap. You build the future. We'll handle the rest. http://www.ey.com Meta believes the future is for everyone. We're focused on giving every person the tools to reach their full potential and making sure the benefits of technology are distributed to all. http://www.meta.com Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America. https://keelinfra.com/ Airwallex - Agentic Global Business Accounts. Open local accounts in 70+ countries to accept payments, earn yield, pay globally, and manage spend. http://airwallex.com PayPal has been revolutionizing commerce globally for more than 25 years. Creating innovative experiences that make moving money, selling, and shopping simple, personalized, and secure, PayPal empowers consumers and businesses in approximately 200 markets to join and thrive in the global economy. For more information, visit https://www.paypal.com Google for Startups connects founders with the right people, products, and best practices to help startups build faster and go further. https://startup.google.com/ Explore ideas, industries, and technologies worth understanding with Chamath every week on Learn with Me: https://research.socialcapital.com/allin Follow Satya: https://x.com/satyanadella Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

(0:00) SpaceX's Gwynne Shotwell joins The Besties! (1:45) Gwynne's SpaceX story, selling rockets, and working for Elon (6:45) Running modern day SpaceX: AI, Starlink, Rockets, and X (13:43) Direct to cell with Starlink, retiring rockets, competition (18:34) Data centers in space (22:00) Management at SpaceX (27:37) Elon Musk joins: AI's real risk, model peer review, what he meant by "Dario is right" (36:53) Elon and Gwynne on their working relationship, Starship's future (46:16) Terafab, Tesla, Flying cars?, merging Tesla and SpaceX (52:51) Lying AIs, how to do AI peer review right Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. https://iren.com/ Oracle connects the data, applications, and infrastructure that turn AI into business outcomes—with the flexibility, choice, and control to optimize as AI evolves. http://oracle.com/ai EY helps tech innovators scale from startup to exit to megacap. You build the future. We'll handle the rest. http://www.ey.com Meta believes the future is for everyone. We're focused on giving every person the tools to reach their full potential and making sure the benefits of technology are distributed to all. http://www.meta.com Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America. https://keelinfra.com/ Airwallex - Agentic Global Business Accounts. Open local accounts in 70+ countries to accept payments, earn yield, pay globally, and manage spend. http://airwallex.com PayPal has been revolutionizing commerce globally for more than 25 years. Creating innovative experiences that make moving money, selling, and shopping simple, personalized, and secure, PayPal empowers consumers and businesses in approximately 200 markets to join and thrive in the global economy. For more information, visit https://www.paypal.com Google for Startups connects founders with the right people, products, and best practices to help startups build faster and go further. https://startup.google.com/ Explore ideas, industries, and technologies worth understanding with Chamath every week on Learn with Me: https://research.socialcapital.com/allin Follow Gwynne: https://x.com/Gwynne_Shotwell Follow Elon: https://x.com/elonmusk Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Jensen Huang joins The Besties! (1:39) Thoughts on Dario's blog, Frontier Labs calling to slow down AI, and Doomer psychology (9:58) Sensible AI regulation and RSI (16:05) Hugging Face acquisition, future of Open Source, and the race with China (22:58) President Trump calls in live to discuss the Doomer Hoax (31:29) The AI boom and Nvidia's capital allocation strategy (40:21) Nvidia's Open Source model ambitions, thoughts on Elon's Terafab Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. https://iren.com/ Oracle connects the data, applications, and infrastructure that turn AI into business outcomes—with the flexibility, choice, and control to optimize as AI evolves. http://oracle.com/ai EY helps tech innovators scale from startup to exit to megacap. You build the future. We'll handle the rest. http://www.ey.com Meta believes the future is for everyone. We're focused on giving every person the tools to reach their full potential and making sure the benefits of technology are distributed to all. http://www.meta.com Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America. https://keelinfra.com/ Airwallex - Agentic Global Business Accounts. Open local accounts in 70+ countries to accept payments, earn yield, pay globally, and manage spend. http://airwallex.com PayPal has been revolutionizing commerce globally for more than 25 years. Creating innovative experiences that make moving money, selling, and shopping simple, personalized, and secure, PayPal empowers consumers and businesses in approximately 200 markets to join and thrive in the global economy. For more information, visit https://www.paypal.com Google for Startups connects founders with the right people, products, and best practices to help startups build faster and go further. https://startup.google.com/ Explore ideas, industries, and technologies worth understanding with Chamath every week on Learn with Me: https://research.socialcapital.com/allin Follow Jensen: https://x.com/JensenHuang Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Bestie intros! (0:35) AI Doomsday: Valid concern or Doomer psyop? (33:40) Steelmanning AI Doomsday scenarios and the impact on Anthropic's IPO (58:45) OpenAI says it cracked a 200 year old math problem, but did it front-run users with their own data? (1:19:55) Nike removed from S&P 100 after stock tanks 80%: What went wrong? Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/hilbertspaess/status/2097476196791709843 https://x.com/EvanHub/status/2097497037956891126 https://x.com/BernieSanders/status/2097705093520863568 https://x.com/GovPritzker/status/2097715871309312220 https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2097861539491463331 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_ZDQKq2F08 https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2097861539491463331 https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027 https://x.com/bgurley/status/2097690522437444050 https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2097381286193316203 https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2097374640582668336 https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2097375276384567642 https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nike-loses-spot-p-100-120000497.html https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/2096970501017010461 https://x.com/spencerpratt/status/2096390079132360936 https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/2096519550103691364

(0:00) Bestie intros: Happy 50th Chamath! (1:17) OpenAI releases GPT-6 Astra: Have they reached AGI? (19:01) All-In Summit: Scholarships available! (19:56) Dwarkesh's Hugging Face hack article sparks a Bernie Sanders AI ban (37:03) EAs, AI-brained influencers, and the conflicts of interest (59:26) Mamdani bans AI in NYC schools K-8  (1:18:58) US-Venezuela oil deal   The All-In Summit is only 1 week away! You won't want to miss it: https://theallinsummit.com   Follow the besties:  https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg   Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod   Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod   Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin   Follow on LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod   Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg   Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect   Referenced in the show: https://openai.com/index/gpt-6-astra https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/09/03/openai-greg-brockman-says-its-new-model-astra-is-agi https://www.axios.com/2026/09/03/axios-interview-sam-altmans-sobering-siren https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026 https://polymarket.com/event/us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-before-2027 https://x.com/chamath/status/2095511879951192279 https://x.com/Jason/status/2095521697411514626 https://scale.stanford.edu/research-in-action/understanding-evidence-base-ai-k12-education https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/02/trumps-seen-the-data-center-polling-and-he-still-supports-them-01061244 https://abc7ny.com/post/new-york-city-public-schools-banning-ai-use-middle-school-year/19778716  

(0:00) Bestie intros: Recapping recent interviews and the state of American science (3:31) China's Robot Olympics, Optimus update, Grok Bot (9:05) Nvidia and Salesforce rip after big earnings: AI Capex Bubble and SaaSpocalypse narratives get reversed (33:32) Bessent gets called out by Druckenmiller for bond market interference (1:01:33) AI writing controversy: Druck used AI to write his WSJ Op-ed (1:15:00) CIA Chief visits Moscow, Meta's settlement and new teen rules (1:22:52) Science Corner: Moderna's mRNA cancer vaccine Come hang with the Besties at the All-In Summit | September 13-15: http://theallinsummit.com Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/27/nvidia-nvda-q2-earnings.html https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/how-nvidia-silenced-the-bears-105017893.html https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2027 https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-december-2026 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/treasury-yields-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/24/bessent-1-trillion-treasury-general-account-bond-buybacks.html https://seekingalpha.com/news/4636322-wall-street-sees-bessent-putting-fear-of-god-into-bond-vigilantes https://www.wsj.com/opinion/let-the-bond-market-speak-81529d74 https://www.wsj.com/world/cia-director-john-ratcliffe-makes-surprise-trip-to-moscow-c1c68fa6 https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by

(0:00) Eric Weinstein joins the show! (03:09) Has American science stalled? Cowboy science, Fauci, and the scientific precariat (21:31) Weinstein's fix: Blow a hole in the Civil Rights Act, kill peer review, fund people not ideas (41:36) Ed Witten drove physics off a cliff, and is Renaissance Technologies a secret Los Alamos? (52:49) Boom, Vroom, Zoom: Did stagnant physics save the human species? (01:07:11) UAPs, multi-temporal adversaries, and Einstein's prison (01:16:12) China poaches our best scientists, AI reads the trash can corpus   Thanks to our partners for making this possible!  As wealth grows, complexity compounds. Between investments, tax strategy and estate planning, coordinating it all can feel like a full-time job. Creative Planning can help with the heavy lifting. https://ad.doubleclick.net/ddm/trackclk/N2598215.3565131ALLIN/B36182939.452362736;dc_trk_aid=646454825;dc_trk_cid=260464105;dc_lat=;dc_rdid=;tag_for_child_directed_treatment=;tfua=;ltd=;dc_tdv=1 With over nine million acres protected across all fifty states, The Conservation Fund secures the irreplaceable lands we love. Learn more at http://conservationfund.org Follow Eric: https://x.com/ericweinstein Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg  Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod  Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod  Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin  Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod  Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg  Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect  

(0:00) Michael Kratsios joins the show! (01:56) Is this administration anti-science? The Nature poll, DEI grants, and $8B down the drain  (8:16) Climate science cuts: RCP 8.5 gets pulled and the "climate emergency" narrative collapses (13:45) $47B at NIH, Eroom's Law, and golden tickets: has American science stagnated?  (22:24) Big bold bets: Genesis Mission, quantum by 2028, fusion by 2035, boots on the moon in '28  (34:04) The great race with China: $33B to $670B, and 7 out of 10 STEM PhDs aren't American  (44:09) Fauci did more damage to science than anyone in modern history, and NIH's median researcher is 71 Follow the besties:  https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg   Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod   Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod   Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin   Follow on LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod   Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg   Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect #allin #tech #news  

(00:00) Besties are back! (00:13) Dario's two-part essay: regulatory capture, doomerism, and the data center backlash (10:25) FINRA for AI vs. MPAA for AI: SROs, thinking tokens, and the "DMV for AI" (30:12) Is an open source ban coming? Harnesses, FDI, jobs, and recursive self-improvement (56:33) a16z under DOJ investigation over "interlocking directorates" (1:01:15) Midterms: broken polls, the socialism surge, and CATO's DSA price tag   Come hang with the Besties at the All-In Summit | September 13-15: ⁠http://theallinsummit.com⁠ ⁠#AllInSummit⁠ Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg   Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpodIntro   Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburgIntro   Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect   #allin #tech #news