More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts

(0:00) Former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger joins Jason! (1:41) What Went Wrong at Intel (15:19) Why a Taiwan Blockade Would Cripple the US Economy (25:00) Lovable's Anton Osika: One Million New Apps a Week (33:38) How Lovable is Bringing Down Builder Costs Thanks to our partners for making this possible! Airwallex is a leading global payments and financial platform for modern businesses, offering trusted solutions to manage everything from business accounts, payments, treasury, and spend management to embedded finance. https://airwallex.com/allin Plaud - If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at https://plaud.ai/allin and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: https://amzn.to/43URLff (Code: ALLIN20X) Follow Pat: https://x.com/PGelsinger Follow Anton: https://x.com/antonosika Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg And a special thank you to Raise Summit for hosting us in Paris

(0:00) ElevenLabs' $600M ARR Ramp, 600 Employees & Life Without PMs (15:34) Celebrity Voice Deals, Deepfake Impersonation & Racing OpenAI and Anthropic (31:42) Legora's Hypergrowth, Disrupting Law Firms & the Billable Hour (42:31) LexisNexis Decline, Legal Data Moats & Legora's Narrow AI Models Thanks to our partners for making this possible! Airwallex is a leading global payments and financial platform for modern businesses, offering trusted solutions to manage everything from business accounts, payments, treasury, and spend management to embedded finance. https://airwallex.com/allin Oracle powers AI at every scale—from frontier labs to enterprise production. Your data. Leading models. No lock-in. One platform, architected for AI. Built for business. Visit https://www.oracle.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-experience/?source=:ex:sn:::::AllIn&SC=:ex:sn:::::AllIn&pcode= Follow Mati: https://x.com/mati Follow Max: https://x.com/MaxJunestrand Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg And a special thank you to Raise Summit for hosting us in Paris

(0:00) Bestie intros: Brad Gerstner fills in for Friedberg! (2:58) OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs: Why it matters who goes first, what they learned from the SpaceX IPO, the unlimited TAM of intelligence (27:39) The open source decision, Meta's new model, Zuck's price war, AI duopoly (54:29) CCP considering putting export controls on Chinese models, is open source ending in China? (1:03:09) Trump Accounts launch, getting young Americans bought back into capitalism Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow Brad: ttps://x.com/altcap Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027 https://x.com/thejessezhang/status/2074154325933424861 https://x.com/praveenTweets/status/2074605343439810922 https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074802778074124434 https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074814752174522857 https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2070670644577280109 https://x.com/andyfang/status/2074252174226493584 https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074630732019036574 https://x.com/finkd/status/2075218444056707458 https://x.com/alighodsi/status/2074996561306955958 https://blog.nicolasmeridjen.com/en/blog/2026-04-03-alibaba-qwen-closed-source-end-of-open-weight https://www.chinatalk.media/p/chinas-ai-companies-are-going-closed https://www.reuters.com/world/beijing-is-looking-curbing-overseas-access-chinas-top-ai-models-sources-say-2026-07-07 https://x.com/KurtSupeCPA/thread/2074817292550984010

(0:00) The AI Buildout: Datacenters Bigger Than Cities (Andrew Feldman) (1:50) Reasoning, Inference, and Breaking Moore's Law (16:28) Open Source, AI Sovereignty, and the Road to AGI (40:54) The Innovation Behind Generative Video (Robin Rombach) (47:31) Martin Scorsese, Robots, and the Future of Hollywood IP Thanks to our partners for making this possible! AppLovin Ads - AppLovin's AI advertising platform reaches over a billion daily active users across mobile games. Full-screen video ads with a 35-second median watch time. Advertisers are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day and advertiser access is still in closed beta. The window is open at https://applovin.com/ALLIN Nasdaq - Positioned at the nexus of technology and the capital markets, Nasdaq provides premier platforms and services for global capital markets and beyond with unmatched technology, insights and markets expertise. https://www.nasdaq.com/convergence-economy Follow Andrew: https://x.com/andrewdfeldman Follow Robin: https://x.com/robrombach Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

(0:00) Bestie intros: Happy Fourth of July! (0:21) Palantir-Nvidia open source deal, Alex Karp's CNBC "Crashout" (33:52) Update on the AI jobs debate (50:24) Anthropic's Fable 5 available after export restrictions lifted (59:06) SCOTUS upholds birthright citizenship, striking Trump's EO (1:21:30) Newsom's "balanced budget" and how California's dire fiscal situation could break apart the Union Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/palantir-secure-ai-us-agencies-nemotron-open-models https://x.com/PalantirTech/status/2072326189079757277 https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-blindsides-business-partners?rc=f8fu8f https://www.google.com/finance/quote/FIG:NYSE https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2072673187666813226 https://x.com/chamath/status/2072665199786561713 https://x.com/quxiaoyin/status/2072428278976074115 https://x.com/chamath/status/2072390507628540213 https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/chinese-national-pleads-guilty-running-birth-tourism-scheme-helped-aliens-give-birth-us https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democratic-socialist-melat-kiros-defeats-longtime-house-incumbent-in-colorado-primary https://x.com/GavinNewsom/status/2070496029280276571 https://www.ocregister.com/2026/02/27/these-charts-show-how-californias-budget-has-skyrocketed https://x.com/JeanneIves/status/2072165726526308719 https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028

(0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod! (10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India (25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base (34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems (45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed (50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard (55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC   Thanks to our partners! Northwest Registered Agent — Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE PLAUD — If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at Plaud.ai/allin and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: https://amzn.to/43URLff (Code: ALLIN20X) Follow Nate: https://x.com/NateSilver538  Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Gavin Baker and Travis Kalanick join the show! (1:05) Mamdani-endorsed socialists sweep congressional primaries in NYC (22:51) Future of the Democratic Party, the Israel issue, social media bans (45:12) China's open-source AI catch up, distillation, OpenAI's new chip (1:01:46) Micron smashes earnings, AI's memory crunch hitting Apple and consumer hardware (1:10:17) The math behind distributed compute and datacenters in space (1:27:22) IPO update: Anthropic at $3T, SpaceX float, Cerebras drops after breaking deal price Follow Gavin: https://x.com/GavinSBaker Follow Travis: https://x.com/travisk Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://abcnews.com/Politics/clean-sweep-3-candidates-endorsed-mamdani-win-primaries/story?id=134152579 https://polymarket.com/event/mamdani-team-sweeps-primaries-20260618232357710 https://x.com/thestustustudio/status/2067356255916536120 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/espaillat-ny-house-primary-loss-district-13-avila-chevalier-rcna351127 https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2069645066252034288 https://x.com/america/status/2069622732279402804 https://x.com/realmaalouf/status/2069433391162798337 https://x.com/JoshBlockDC/status/2070108811851882691 https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2069776474429624684 https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2068829255786803368 https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/04/07/negative-views-of-israel-netanyahu-continue-to-rise-among-americans-especially-young-people https://x.com/PirateWires/status/2069146641266094417 https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-data-center-boom-is-sparking-a-third-wave-of-inflation-926adc6e https://x.com/jietang/status/2067580270078030088

(0:00) David Friedberg intros GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen! (1:56) Building and selling Chewy for $3.35B, how to compete with Amazon in e-commerce (11:58) Post-Chewy life, activist investing, the road to GameStop CEO, expanding into collectibles (26:39) Why he wants to buy eBay for $56B: Massive potential, poor execution (slow growth, rising expenses, seller relationship failure) (43:58) Ryan's three-part vision for eBay: Cut costs, expand live commerce, create digital in-game collectible marketplace (49:33) Why eBay has rejected the offer, media bias against GameStop Thanks to our partners! AppLovin Ads — AppLovin's AI advertising platform reaches over a billion daily active users across mobile games. Full-screen video ads with a 35-second median watch time. Advertisers are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day and advertiser access is still in closed beta. The window is open at https://applovin.com/ALLIN Nasdaq - Positioned at the nexus of technology and the capital markets, Nasdaq provides premier platforms and services for global capital markets and beyond with unmatched technology, insights and markets expertise. https://www.nasdaq.com Follow Ryan: https://x.com/ryancohen Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Bestie intros! (2:41) The New Oligarchs, America's incoming politburo, and learned helplessness (14:18) SpaceX's record breaking IPO, $60B Cursor acquisition, and trillionaire reactions (33:34) Behind the scenes of Anthropic's Fable ban (1:01:18) Claude psychoanalyzes its creator, Dario Amodei (1:14:31) Iran War MOU and the market impact Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/illinois-set-begin-taxing-bitcoin-172237413.html https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/spacex-ipo-stock-market-06-12-2026 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/16/spacex-spcx-cursor-acquisition-ipo.html https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgrk21wnvy9o https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/fed-meeting-warsh-interest-rate-06-17-2026/card/musk-swaps-300-million-tesla-options-for-shares-he-can-vote-qPrqq5tcKEzb2vkcqiXg https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-spcx-stock-ipo-welder-employee-millionaire https://www.semafor.com/article/06/13/2026/white-house-move-to-limit-anthropic-linked-to-concerns-about-chinese-access-to-mythos https://www.wired.com/story/sk-telecom-anthropic-mythos-export-controls https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/06/15/how-anthropic-lost-white-houses-trust-then-its-flagship-product https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2065853007619588171 https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/amazon-ceos-talks-with-u-s-officials-triggered-crackdown-on-anthropic-models-dcc90578 https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access https://stratechery.com/2026/anthropics-safety-superpower https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/us-ai-safety-institute-signs-agreements-regarding-ai-safety-research https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/anthropic-pentagon-ai-claude-iran.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/opinion/ai-dangerous-openai-anthropic.html

(0:00) Besties are back! (0:19) Anthropic gets massive backlash over secret Fable nerfing and privacy concerns (29:16) The AI regulatory capture trap, pragmatic safety solutions (37:59) Nationalizing AI: Trump/Sanders, justifications, and AI's "Capitalist Cucks" (59:22) Liquidity recap: Best moments and takeaways (1:05:39) Inflation heats up: CPI and PPI see 3+ year highs (1:12:27) California's loose election laws creating integrity doubts Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5 https://x.com/Scobleizer/status/2064641097310335294 https://x.com/GergelyOrosz/status/2064618497150210391 https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/2064433331970720187 https://x.com/Yuchenj_UW/status/2064524668208545955 https://stratechery.com https://x.com/peter_szilagyi/status/2064620043896291671 https://darioamodei.com/post/policy-on-the-ai-exponential https://screendna.org https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2065120386660880765 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/01/opinion/artificial-intelligence-bernie-sanders.html https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027 https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026 https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026 https://x.com/robbystarbuck/status/2063602942637158423 https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/california-man-pleads-guilty-orchestrating-270m-medication-reimbursement-fraud-scheme https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/osec/osec20260218 https://www.secretservice.gov/newsroom/behind-the-shades/2025/05/secret-service-cracks-down-ebt-fraud-southern-california-sweep https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/8-arrested-health-care-fraud-takedown-including-owners-hospices-billed-taxpayers https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-man-arrested-allegedly-stealing-millions-homeless-funds https://x.com/californiapost/status/2064362900098048386