Texas Election Predictions: Every Race That Matters Tonight

John Huffman watched his own state Senate race flip from deep-red to Democrat a year before the rest of Texas Republicans got the memo — and on this episode, he and Garrett finally process how it happened statewide. Huffman, the former Mayor of Southlake, ran for Texas Senate District 9 in the 2025-26 special election and watched a Trump+17 district nearly go Democrat outright, then flip completely in the runoff. He and Garrett break down what that warning sign should have told Republican leadership — and why nobody listened until it was too late.This is a full post-mortem: the Trump-approval math behind the statewide collapse, the "loyalty culture" that kept GOP candidates from admitting voters were hurting, the ICE backlash that blindsided Republicans in Hispanic and Indian communities, Bo French's tweet and its down-ballot body count, and why Ken Paxton's character problems made him, in Huffman's words, "a bridge too far." They also get into what Texas Democrats can and can't actually do with the power they just won, and what Republicans need to fix before 2030.Topics discussed:- Why the SD9 special election was an early warning Republicans brushed off- The Trump net-approval math that predicted a bad night for Texas Republicans- How "loyalty culture" kept GOP candidates from running on affordability- The ICE backlash in Hispanic and Indian communities nobody saw coming- Bo French's viral tweet and its down-ballot cost in Fort Bend, Collin, and Denton counties- Ken Paxton's character problem and his campaign's strategic failures- Why this is a rejection of the GOP, not a permanent leftward realignment of Texas- The "purity vs. competence" fight inside the Republican primary system- What a Democratic governor can and can't actually do under the Texas Constitution- What Republicans need to do to win the state back by 2030Guest: John Huffman is the former Mayor of Southlake and a 2025-26 Republican candidate for Texas Senate District 9. Find him on X at @JohnRHuffman (Substack linked on his profile).Sources:- The Texas Tribune — By Kayla Guo, Taylor Goldenstein, Terri Langford — Nov. 3, 2026 — Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeats Greg Abbott for Texas governor: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/03/texas-governor-greg-abbott-gina-hinojosa-election/- Newsweek — Nov. 2026 — James Talarico upsets Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race: https://www.newsweek.com/texas-james-talarico-ken-paxton-senate-12639609- The Texas Tribune — Nov. 3, 2026 — Vikki Goodwin ousts longtime Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/03/texas-dan-patrick-vikki-goodwin-lt-governor-election-2026/- The Texas Tribune — Nov. 3, 2026 — Nathan Johnson wins Texas attorney general's office in big upset: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/03/texas-nathan-johnson-mayes-middleton-attorney-general-elections-2026/- Dallas Morning News — By Sarah Bahari — Ken Paxton concession speech ends his Senate bid: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/article/ken-paxton-concession-speech-22511204.php- The Texas Tribune — Jan. 30, 2026 — Democrat Taylor Rehmet wins solidly red Texas Senate seat in stunning special election upset: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/01/30/texas-senate-district-9-runoff-rehmet-wambsganss-special-election/- The New York Times — Jan. 29, 2026 — A Tight Statehouse Race in Texas Offers Republicans a Warning: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/us/politics/taylor-rehmet-leigh-wambsganss-texas-election.html- The Texas Tribune — Sept. 17, 2026 — John Cornyn says he won't vote for Bo French after racist post: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/17/john-cornyn-bo-french-texas-railroad-commission-racist-post/- The Texas Tribune — By Carlos Nogueras Ramos — Oct. 17, 2026 — Bo French, Jon Rosenthal clash over Railroad Commission: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/17/jon-rosenthal-bo-french-texas-railroad-commission-election/- The Texas Tribune — By Gabby Birenbaum and Alejandro Serrano — Oct. 15, 2026 — Elon Musk gave $158 million to Senate GOP group helping Paxton: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/15/elon-musk-ken-paxton-donations-senate-gop-super-pac/- Texas Scorecard — By Erin Anderson — Texas Voters Reject Billions in New Property Taxes, Bond Debt: https://texasscorecard.com/decisiontexas/texas-voters-reject-billions-in-new-property-taxes-bond-debt/Chapters0:00 A GOP Wipeout, Live Reaction0:50 Meet John Huffman of SD96:25 How Wrong Predictions Really Were11:37 Abbott's Stunning Concession Speech13:25 The Trump Approval Math20:27 ICE Backlash Nobody Predicted31:12 Bo French's Tweet Goes National53:26 Purity Tests vs. Big Tent58:35 What Comes Next for TexasFind us at seeingredpodcast.substack.com for full episodes. Follow us on all socials at @theseeingredpod and online at our website Seeing Red Podcast. x.com/gwfulce 

Former Fort Bend County state rep Jacey Jetton joins Garrett on Election Day itself to call every major Texas race before the polls close — from the nail-biter Senate contest to state house seats nobody outside the Capitol is watching yet. They lay out exactly where the money's gone, what the early vote tells us, and which counties to watch tonight if you want to know how bad (or good) the night is really going.This is a full ballot-by-ballot prediction episode: Senate, Governor, every statewide office, congressional seats touched by redistricting, and the Texas House races that will decide whether Republicans keep their majority. Garrett and Jacey each lay out their numbers, explain where and why they disagree, and give you specific bellwether precincts and counties to track as results come in.Topics discussed:- Early vote totals, record registration, and the unprecedented money flooding the Paxton-Talarico Senate race- Final Senate race predictions: Talarico vs. Paxton, and why Paxton hasn't closed the deal with Cornyn-aligned Republicans- Trump's approval numbers, gas prices, and the broader midterm headwinds hitting the Texas GOP- Four scenarios for the Texas House — from a 1-seat loss to a full majority flip- Statewide downballot predictions: Governor, Lt. Governor, Land Commissioner, Comptroller, Ag Commissioner, Railroad Commissioner- Congressional races reshaped by redistricting, including South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley- Texas Senate District 9 in Tarrant County and the "Bo French factor"- A lightning-round walkthrough of competitive Texas House seats- Bellwether counties and races to watch as results come in tonight- Why no Republican may win countywide in Fort Bend County this cycleGuest: Jacey Jetton, former Texas State Representative for Fort Bend County (House District 26).Sources:- The Texas Tribune — By Gabby Birenbaum and Alejandro Serrano — Oct. 15, 2026 — Elon Musk gave $158 million to Senate GOP group helping Paxton: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/15/elon-musk-ken-paxton-donations-senate-gop-super-pac/- CBS News Texas — Nov. 1, 2026 — As Election Day nears, a look at the big money, tight polls, and closing themes in the Texas Senate race: https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/election-day-money-look/- Texas Secretary of State — Oct. 16, 2026 — Secretary Howden Announces Texas Has a Record 19 Million Registered Voters: https://www.sos.state.tx.us/about/newsreleases/2026/101626.shtml- The Texas Tribune — By Colleen DeGuzman — Oct. 31, 2026 (updated Nov. 1, 2026) — More than 7.7 million Texans voted early in 2026 election, surpassing 2018 record: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/31/texas-early-voting-turnout-rate-election-2026/- The Texas Tribune — By Jayme Lozano Carver — Oct. 19, 2026 — Sid Miller stops short of endorsing Democrat Clayton Tucker for ag commissioner over Nate Sheets: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/19/sid-miller-nate-sheets-clayton-tucker-election-2026-agriculture-commissioner/- The Texas Tribune — By Carlos Nogueras Ramos — Oct. 17, 2026 — Bo French, Jon Rosenthal clash over Railroad Commission: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/17/jon-rosenthal-bo-french-texas-railroad-commission-election/- KSAT — By Justin Horne — Nov. 2, 2026 — Election Day cold front: Here's what you need to know: https://www.ksat.com/weather/2026/11/02/election-day-cold-front-heres-what-you-need-to-know/Chapters0:00 Election Day Kickoff1:24 Early Vote Totals & the Money5:00 Senate Predictions: Talarico vs. Paxton11:10 Trump's Approval & Midterm Headwinds14:20 Texas House: Four Scenarios20:47 Statewide Downballot Predictions28:35 Congressional Races Breakdown35:03 Texas Senate & the Tarrant Fight39:13 Texas House Lightning Round45:16 Bellwethers to Watch & Fort Bend CloseFind us at seeingredpodcast.substack.com for full episodes. Follow us on all socials at @theseeingredpod and online at our website Seeing Red Podcast. x.com/gwfulce 

Forget Paxton vs. Talarico for a minute — Garrett says the race that could actually decide who runs Texas is happening three rows down the ballot, in state Senate and House districts nobody's covering. In this solo breakdown, he walks through every competitive Texas Senate and House seat, why Tarrant County is on track to turn blue for the first time ever, and which Republicans are one bad night away from losing their seats.Using early-vote data, fundraising reports, and insider survey numbers, Garrett grades out the real toss-up map: the Texas Senate seats Dan Patrick is quietly worried about, the dozen-plus House districts that could flip in a big Democratic wave, and the handful of Republicans (and Democrats) running strong enough personal campaigns to survive a bad macro environment. No guest this week — just the numbers and the districts the statewide coverage is skipping.Topics discussed:- Texas Senate District 9: Leigh Wambsganns vs. Taylor Rehmet and the Tarrant County special-election wild card- Senate Districts 2 and 11: why Dan Patrick is watching Bob Hall and Dennis Paul's races- Texas House math: Republicans' 88-seat majority and the 27 seats truly up for grabs- Border and Rio Grande Valley House races (HD41, Eddie Morales, Villalobos vs. Sines, Janie Lopez, McLaughlin vs. Castellano)- San Antonio and Austin swing seats: John Lujan, Mark LaHood vs. Zach Dunn, Caroline Harris Davila- Houston-area battlegrounds: Mano DeAyala, Lacey Hull, Sarah McGee vs. Mike Schofield, Charles Cunningham- Dallas County's marquee races: Angie Chen Button and Morgan Meyer- Why Tarrant County is trending blue and what it means for Republicans up and down the ballot- Collin and Denton County swing districts tied to the Bo French fallout- Fort Bend races and Garrett's home-turf read on JC Chittan's old seatSources:- The Texan — Northeast Tarrant County Conservative Candidates Suffer Losses in School Board Races: https://thetexan.news/elections/2025/northeast-tarrant-county-conservative-candidates-suffer-losses-in-school-board-races/article_7e5c2fd8-99ab-4349-b588-4c9c6273e84c.html- The Texas Tribune — By Alex Nguyen — Sept. 13, 2026 — Texas GOP condemns Bo French, but few are pulling support: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/13/bo-french-john-cornyn-republican-texas-railroad-commissioner-ut/- Houston Public Media — By Andrew Schneider — Sept. 14, 2026 — Faced with condemnation over alleged racism, GOP Texas railroad commissioner candidate Bo French doubles down: https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2026/2026/09/14/561784/gop-texas-railroad-commissioner-candidate-bo-french-doubles-down/Chapters0:00 Intro & Methodology1:35 Texas Senate: The 3 Seats in Play10:20 Texas House: Mapping the Battleground12:36 Border & Valley Races23:04 San Antonio & Austin Swing Seats30:03 Houston-Area Battlegrounds39:27 Dallas County's Marquee Races42:24 Tarrant County's Blue Shift45:47 Collin & Denton County50:21 Fort Bend & What's NextFind us at seeingredpodcast.substack.com for full episodes. Follow us on all socials at @theseeingredpod and online at our website Seeing Red Podcast. x.com/gwfulce 

A top Republican pollster just told us the quiet part out loud: Texas Republicans have a real "under-response" problem, and candidate quality — not MAGA versus traditional GOP — is what's deciding close races right now. Nick Weinstein of Cygnal, one of the biggest GOP polling firms in the country, joins Garrett to break down how real campaign polling actually works, why the industry is still recovering from the 2016 miss, and what a 10-day Marist poll in the field right now might be getting wrong about Texas. Then Garrett runs the numbers himself: a brand-new poll showing Ken Paxton's lead over James Talarico down to just 2 points, a batch of mysterious mailers hitting conservative households that nobody will claim credit for, and the Governor Abbott moment with a TMZ reporter that's all over Texas Twitter this week.Nick explains multimode polling, why nobody answers a landline survey anymore, what a crosstab actually is, how margin of error balloons once you drill into subgroups, and why he thinks "Republicans aren't answering polls" is mostly cope. Garrett and Nick also get into real 2026 prognostication — House control, the Senate map, and whether the current Trump coalition can survive past Trump himself.Topics discussed:- How Cygnal builds a poll and why multimode (text + phone) replaced landline-only polling- Why the 2016 polling miss changed the whole industry- RealClearPolitics averages and prediction markets — useful or noise?- What a crosstab is and how margin of error grows in small subgroups- Why a 10-11 day field period is a red flag for a statewide poll- The real scope of "Republicans won't answer pollsters" — and how firms control for it- Candidate quality vs. MAGA/traditional labels, and why incumbency isn't the advantage it used to be- 2026 prognostications: House control, Senate map, Maine, Kansas, Alaska, and Texas- Garrett's breakdown of a new UH Hobby School poll showing Paxton's lead over Talarico narrowing to about 2 points, and what it means down-ballot- Texas House majority math and what happens to the Speaker's race under different outcomes- The mystery "dark arts" mailer campaign sent to conservative households referencing a trans advocacy group that says it never sent them- Governor Abbott's viral moment getting a TMZ reporter to chug a Shiner- A PSA on why you shouldn't read too much into early voting turnout numbersGuest: Nick Weinstein, Cygnal, a Washington, D.C.-based political research and polling firm that works for Republican candidates, campaigns, and issue groups. Cygnal posts a public monthly survey at cygn.al. Follow Nick on X @nickweinstein and Instagram @nick_weinstein. Cygnal: x.com/Cygnal, facebook.com/CygnalPolitical, instagram.com/cygnal_research.Sources:- Houston Public Media — By Andrew Schneider — Oct. 18-19, 2026 — Talarico holds slight edge over Paxton in U.S. Senate race on cusp of election, poll shows: https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2026/2026/10/18/564673/talarico-holds-slight-edge-over-paxton-in-u-s-senate-race-on-cusp-of-election-poll-shows/- The Texas Tribune — By Kayla Guo and Alejandro Serrano — Oct. 9, 2026 — Talarico makes first public appearance since flu-induced absence: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/09/james-talarico-returns-to-campaign-trail-flu-austin-city-limits-senate/- The Bulwark — MAGA's Talarico Mental Breakdown Conspiracy Implodes—Instantly: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/maga-james-talarico-mental-breakdown-conspiracy-theory-implodes-sortor-amacher-lindner- Mediaite — James Talarico Appears at ACL Music Festival After Days Away: https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/talarico-resurfaces-after-over-a-week-off-the-campaign-trail-which-fueled-wild-maga-rumors/- The Daily Signal — Oct. 19, 2026 — LGBT Student Guide Mailers Sent to Texas Families Raise Questions: https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/10/19/texas-families-lgbt-student-resource-guide-mailers/- TMZ — Oct. 17, 2026 — Texas Governor Greg Abbott Has Beer Summit with TMZ, and It's Not Pretty: https://www.tmz.com/2026/10/17/greg-abbott-offers-beer-to-tmz-dc-reporter/- The Texas Tribune — By Carlos Nogueras Ramos — Sept. 14, 2026 — Bo French doubles down on racist post made after UT-Ohio football game: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/14/bo-french-post-ut-ohio-football-game/Chapters0:00 Cold open: kitchen-table politics0:29 Dems eye first statewide win since '941:45 GOP pollster Nick Weinstein joins the show3:59 Why pollsters dumped landlines9:49 Crosstabs and public vs. private polls19:41 Do Republicans really dodge pollsters?31:27 Red wave, blue wave, or a wash?37:53 New poll: Paxton's lead shrinks to 244:16 The "dark arts": mystery trans mailers54:48 Abbott chugs a Shiner for TMZFind us at seeingredpodcast.substack.com for full episodes. Follow us on all socials at @theseeingredpod and online at our website Seeing Red Podcast. x.com/gwfulce 

A Texas Railroad Commissioner candidate looked at a photo of Indian American students celebrating a UT football win and said it proved "the problem" was "far worse than anyone imagined" — and Hindu American Foundation communications director Mat McDermott joins Garrett Fulce to explain exactly what that fight is about and why it matters far beyond one tweet. McDermott recently wrote about the controversy for the Houston Chronicle, and he and Garrett dig into the surge in anti-Hindu rhetoric, why Hindu voters are quietly drifting away from Democrats, and why McDermott thinks the far left — not the far right — may be the bigger long-term threat to his community. Then Garrett closes out with the wildest 48 hours in the Paxton-Talarico Senate race: a debunked mental-institution conspiracy theory, a fake-private-jet story that fell apart on a phone at a pumpkin patch, and a brand-new Wall Street Journal bombshell about Ken Paxton's New Year's Eve in Dubai.This week on Seeing Red, Garrett sits down with Mat McDermott of the Hindu American Foundation to talk about what it's actually like to be a Hindu American in Texas right now, how that community has historically voted, and whether rhetoric like Bo French's has a shot at reshaping Texas politics. Then it's a full rundown of the chaos surrounding James Talarico's disappearance from the campaign trail and a fresh scandal hitting Ken Paxton just weeks before Election Day.Topics discussed:- Bo French's comments on Indian American UT football fans and Boy Scouts- The history of anti-Catholic bigotry in America and parallels to anti-Hindu rhetoric today- How Hindu Americans have historically voted — and why that may be shifting- Fort Bend County's unique, closely-split multicultural political landscape- Christian nationalism, Islamism, and finding natural political allies- The Democratic Socialists of America and the "bigger threat: left or right" debate- James Talarico's days-long disappearance from the campaign trail and the fallout- A debunked conspiracy claiming Talarico was treated at a mental health facility- New Wall Street Journal reporting on Ken Paxton's New Year's Eve trip to Dubai- What Republican outside money pulling back in Texas could mean for the Senate raceGuest: Mat McDermott is senior communications director at the Hindu American Foundation (HAF) and host of HAF's "HAF Reacts" and "That's So Hindu" podcasts. Find HAF at hinduamerican.org or @HinduAmerican on social media.Chapters:0:00 Senate Chaos Teaser1:12 Welcome Mat McDermott2:33 Bo French's UT Comments8:57 How Hindu Americans Vote11:04 Fort Bend County Politics14:32 Fighting Anti-Hindu Rhetoric17:18 Left vs. Right: Bigger Threat?29:35 HAF's Post-Election Priorities33:30 Talarico's 8-Day Vanishing Act44:05 Paxton's Dubai BombshellSources:- Houston Chronicle (Chron.com) — By Michael Shapiro — Sept. 14, 2026 — Cornyn slams Bo French for racist social media post on UT crowd — https://www.chron.com/news/article/bo-french-racism-texas-muslims-22429882.php- The Texas Tribune — By Alex Nguyen — Sept. 13, 2026 — Several Texas Republicans condemn Bo French's racist posts calling Asian students at UT a "problem" — https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/13/bo-french-john-cornyn-republican-texas-railroad-commissioner-ut/- The Texan — Fort Bend County Judge KP George Indicted Over Fake Racist Messages — https://thetexan.news/issues/criminal-justice/fort-bend-county-judge-kp-george-indicted-over-fake-racist-messages/article_75f821e0-7f6f-11ef-8fa7-07b00681d210.html- Houston Chronicle — By Mike Ward — May 16, 2014 — Patrick: Briefly hospitalized for depression in 1980s — https://chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Patrick-Briefly-hospitalized-for-depression-in-5483462.php- The Texas Tribune — By Kayla Guo and Alejandro Serrano — Oct. 9, 2026 — Talarico makes first public appearance since flu-induced absence — https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/09/james-talarico-returns-to-campaign-trail-flu-austin-city-limits-senate/- Breitbart — Oct. 8, 2026 — Paxton Campaign Asks Talarico for 'Proof of Life' After 12-Day Absence — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/10/08/ken-paxtons-campaign-demands-james-talarico-show-proof-life-12-day-absence/- Townhall — By Scott McClallen — Oct. 10, 2026 — 'Must Be Nice': Paxton Rips Talarico's Two-Week Disappearance — https://townhall.com/news/scott-mcclallen/2026/10/10/must-be-nice-paxton-rips-talaricos-two-week-disappearance-n2684455- Mediaite — Talarico Spox Rages After MAGA Influencers Promote Utterly Bizarre Conspiracy Theory That He Was Locked In a Mental Hospital — https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/talarico-spox-rages-after-maga-influencers-promote-utterly-bizarre-conspiracy-theory-that-he-was-locked-in-a-mental-hospital/- Mediaite — Talarico Campaign Provides Time-Stamped Security Cam Images to NYT Showing He Was Home in Austin — https://www.mediaite.com/media/print/talarico-campaign-provides-time-stamped-security-cam-images-to-nyt-showing-he-was-home-in-austin/- Yahoo News (reporting on a Wall Street Journal exclusive) — Oct. 12, 2026 — Ken Paxton Reportedly Partied in Dubai With Fugitives Wanted in U.S. — https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/ken-paxton-reportedly-partied-dubai-025552820.html- The Texas Tribune — By Gabby Birenbaum — Sept. 11, 2026 — Senate GOP's super PAC starts spending big for Ken Paxton — https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/11/senate-gop-leadership-ken-paxton-john-thune-texas-spending/Find us at seeingredpodcast.substack.com for full episodes. Follow us on all socials at @theseeingredpod and online at our website Seeing Red Podcast. x.com/gwfulce 

Texas just had, by one measure, its best legislative session for housing reform in the country, and almost nobody outside the Capitol knows the job that makes bills like that actually work. Legislative lawyer Sam Hooper, aka "the Lege Lawyer," joins Garrett to pull back the curtain on how a policy idea becomes real statute, why Texas's new starter-home and mixed-use laws are already putting thousands of units online, and why AI-drafted bills could be the next headache at the Capitol. Then Garrett breaks down the Angela Paxton ad running in markets nationwide and the growing Republican fight over who to blame if November goes badly.Sam Hooper spent a session drafting bills for the nonpartisan Texas Legislative Council before moving to the Institute for Justice to work on property rights and economic liberty, and now runs his own solo legislative practice. He and Garrett dig into the real fights behind housing policy, property rights vs. neighborhood control, state preemption vs. local control, and why Houston's lack of zoning lets a law student live next to River Oaks for under $2,000 a month. They also cover occupational licensing reciprocity, how "bracketing" lets lawmakers target specific cities without naming them, and why AI-written "slop bills" might flood the Capitol next session. Garrett closes with a rundown of the Texas Senate race ad everyone's talking about and Luke Macias's take on GOP accountability heading into the midterms.**Topics discussed:**- Sam Hooper's path from English management consultant to Texas legislative lawyer- What Texas Legislative Council does and how bill drafting actually works- The 2023 housing bill failures vs. the 2025 housing reform wins (starter homes, ADUs, mixed-use zoning, occupancy limits, single-stair reform)- Early data from Senate Bill 840 and the mixed-use housing law- "Bracketing": how bills target specific cities without naming them- The property-rights vs. neighborhood-control debate, and the YIMBY/NIMBY divide- State preemption vs. local control, and why housing became a statewide issue- Houston's no-zoning model vs. Austin's permitting maze- Occupational licensing reform, reciprocity, and universal license recognition- How AI could change (and complicate) bill drafting ahead of the next session- Pre-filing season and who might become the next "point of order" power player- The Angela Paxton ad airing in national markets ahead of the Senate race- Luke Macias's commentary on GOP accountability if Republicans underperform in November**Guest:** Sam Hooper, independent legislative lawyer ("the Lege Lawyer"), formerly of Texas Legislative Council and the Institute for Justice. Find him on Substack and X at @LegeLawyer (also on Instagram and TikTok).**Sources:**- *The Texas Tribune*, By Colleen DeGuzman, Oct. 3-4, 2026, [In TV ad, Angela Paxton urges voters to back "the Republican ticket" that includes her estranged husband](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/03/angela-paxton-tv-ad-ken-paxton-texas-senate-2026/)- *The Washington Times*, Oct. 3, 2026, [Paxton's estranged wife backs Texas GOP ticket in new ad](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/oct/3/paxtons-estranged-wife-backs-texas-gop-ticket-new-ad/)- *The Texas Tribune*, By Gabby Birenbaum, Sept. 22, 2026, [Senate Republicans increase ad buy for Ken Paxton to $100 million](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/22/texas-paxton-ads-100-million-senate-race-talarico/)- *The Luke Macias Show* (Texas Scorecard), [Who Will You Blame If November Goes Badly?](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-luke-macias-show/id1450702621)Find us at seeingredpodcast.substack.com for full episodes. Follow us on all socials at @theseeingredpod and online at our website Seeing Red Podcast. x.com/gwfulce 

Texas just quietly sat on one of the largest rare earth mineral deposits outside of China's control — and the state's Land Commissioner is the one turning it into cash for schools. Dawn Buckingham joins Garrett to explain how the General Land Office manages 13 million acres of Texas land, why that makes Texas the "tip of the spear" on energy, minerals, and border security, and what's really happening with the $450 million Alamo overhaul. Then Garrett runs the solo rundown: a $7.5 billion border security reimbursement finally landing at the Comptroller's Office, a voter registration glitch affecting thousands of Texans, and where the Abbott-Hinojosa and Paxton-Talarico races actually stand five weeks out.Commissioner Buckingham breaks down how the GLO's mineral leases fund the Permanent School Fund, why she declared cartel-controlled islands in the Rio Grande part of Texas, and how "Mines to Magnets" is meant to end America's reliance on China for the minerals that power phones, jets, and the grid. Garrett also covers the ongoing GOP fight over Railroad Commission nominee Bo French and where the debate season stands for Senate and Governor.**Topics discussed:**- Dawn Buckingham's path from medical practice to Texas Senate to Land Commissioner- What the General Land Office does and why it predates the state government- The Permanent School Fund and its impact on Texas schools and property taxes- The "Texas Engine" plan: energy, rare earth minerals, and produced water- Breaking China's rare earth mineral monopoly with USA Rare Earth and El Paso Minerals- The $450 million Alamo restoration and the new Visitor Center- Big Bend border wall strategy and protecting state ranchland from contractors- The Veterans Land Board's nursing homes, cemeteries, and mortgage program- The Comptroller's Office, the $7.5 billion Operation Lone Star reimbursement, and staff shakeups- A voter registration processing glitch affecting thousands of Texans- Where the Abbott-Hinojosa and Paxton-Talarico races stand, and the fight over debates**Guest:** Dawn Buckingham, MD — Texas Land Commissioner, former Texas State Senator. More info: dawnbuckingham.com**Sources:**- *Texas Tribune* — By Gabby Birenbaum — Sept. 18, 2026 — [Feds reimburse Texas for $7.5 billion in border spending, ending delay](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/18/texas-border-money-reimburse-billions/)- *Texas Tribune* — By Alejandro Serrano — Sept. 15, 2026 — [This Gen-Z politico is running the Texas comptroller's office](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/15/texas-comptroller-shakeup-don-huffines-noah-betz/)- *Texas Tribune* — Sept. 25, 2026 — [Texas' delayed voter applications highlight registration woes](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/25/texas-voter-registration-delay-backlog-online-dps/)- *Texas Tribune* — By Alex Nguyen — Sept. 13, 2026 — [Cornyn calls out Bo French over racist social media post](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/13/bo-french-john-cornyn-republican-texas-railroad-commissioner-ut/)- *The Washington Times* — Sept. 3, 2026 — [Ken Paxton turns down CNN debate offer in Senate race](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/sep/3/ken-paxton-turns-cnn-debate-offer-senate-race/)Chapters0:00 Intro & Episode Preview0:44 Meet Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham2:57 GLO 101: History & Duties7:32 Texas Engine: Power, Minerals & Water13:21 Restoring the Alamo19:44 Big Bend Border Wall Fight23:53 Veterans Land Board25:13 Comptroller Shakeup & $7.5B Border Check29:14 178K Voter Registrations in Limbo33:19 Horse Race & Debate WatchFind us at seeingredpodcast.substack.com for full episodes. Follow us on all socials at @theseeingredpod and online at our website Seeing Red Podcast. x.com/gwfulce 

Want a job in Republican politics? Dustin Tropp, the headhunter who runs republicanjobs.gop, has placed more than 3,500 people in GOP jobs and says entry-level D.C. staffers are now starting at $70,000 — a number that didn't exist for Garrett's generation. Garrett sits down with Tropp to break down exactly how to get in the door, move up the ladder, and avoid torching your career before it starts.Dustin built Republican Jobs from a headhunting side project into the GOP's largest political staffing operation, working with nearly 500 organizations and running the party's biggest virtual career fair. He and Garrett dig into why AI hasn't killed political jobs (and might be creating more of them), why the hardest jump in politics isn't getting your first job but your second one, and why Gen Z keeps turning down perfectly good stepping-stone jobs. Then Garrett goes solo to explain his recent Houston Chronicle op-ed on why he came out against Bo French, and breaks down some of the wildest statewide polling Texas has seen in years.Topics discussed:- How Dustin Tropp built republicanjobs.gop into the GOP's top political headhunting firm- Why entry-level political jobs are easier to land than ever, with $70K starting pay in D.C.- How AI is actually changing political jobs (and why it hasn't eliminated them)- The real career path from campaign volunteer to political operative- Comms, lobbying, and vendor jobs beyond just campaigns and the legislature- Dustin's new podcast "Staffed Up" and Republican Jobs' December 3rd virtual career fair- Garrett's Houston Chronicle op-ed explaining why he came out against Bo French- Fresh Texas polling showing Republicans running behind the generic ballot statewideGuest: Dustin Tropp, President of Republican Jobs (republicanjobs.gop). Apply, browse openings, or sign up for the newsletter at republicanjobs.gop.Chapters:0:00 Intro & Episode Preview0:55 Meet Dustin Tropp, Republican Jobs Founder1:58 Building Republican Jobs From Scratch7:07 Why Entry-Level Jobs Got Easier10:42 AI's Real Impact on Political Jobs15:59 Breaking In: Entry to Mid-Career22:37 Comms, Lobbying & Vendor Jobs32:51 Staffed Up Podcast & Career Fair39:30 Garrett Goes Solo: Bo French Fallout45:33 Texas's Wild New Poll NumbersSources:- Houston Chronicle — By Garrett W. Fulce — Want to keep Texas red? Say no to Bo. — https://houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/no-bo-french-garrett-fulce-save-texas-republicans-22435711.php- The Texas Tribune — By Alex Nguyen — Sept. 13, 2026 — Cornyn calls out Bo French over racist social media post — https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/13/bo-french-john-cornyn-republican-texas-railroad-commissioner-ut/- The Texas Tribune — By Carlos Nogueras Ramos — Sept. 14, 2026 — Bo French doubles down on racist post made after UT-Ohio football game — https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/14/bo-french-post-ut-ohio-football-game/- The Texas Tribune — By Will Hammann — Sept. 17, 2026 — John Cornyn says he won't vote for Bo French as backlash to racist post rises — https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/17/john-cornyn-bo-french-texas-railroad-commission-racist-post/- The Texas Tribune — Sept. 14, 2026 — Karl Rove will vote for Democrat over Bo French — https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/14/bo-french-kal-rove-endorsement-jon-rosenthal/- Chron.com (Houston Chronicle) — Aug. 13, 2026 — Fort Bend Constable Ali Sheikhani responds to anti-Muslim attacks — https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/ali-sheikhani-anti-muslim-attacks-22387359.php- Emerson College Polling / Nexstar Media — Sept. 17, 2026 — Texas 2026 Poll: Talarico and Paxton in Dead Heat, Abbott Maintains Edge — https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-talarico-and-paxton-in-dead-heat-abbott-maintains-edge/- TelevisaUnivision (N+ Univision) — Sept. 9, 2026 — N+ Univision News Poll Finds Texas Governor's and Senate Races Deadlocked — https://corporate.televisaunivision.com/press/2026/09/09/n-univision-news-poll-finds-texas-governors-and-senate-races-deadlocked-ahead-of-2026-midterms/Find us at seeingredpodcast.substack.com for full episodes. Follow us on all socials at @theseeingredpod and online at our website Seeing Red Podcast. x.com/gwfulce 

A pickup truck crashed through State Rep. Charles Cunningham's living room at 4 a.m.—and it's the reason he's now fighting bail reform battles in Austin. Rep. Cunningham (House District 127, Humble) joins Garrett Fulce to break down Texas's $51 billion in property tax relief, why school districts are "underfunded" rather than "unfunded," and how his district turned a flood-control headache into a funding fix by selling sand out of Lake Houston. Then Garrett runs through the week's fights back home: a Texas GOP statewide candidate's racist meltdown over University of Texas students, a flood of Republican outside money rushing in to save Ken Paxton's Senate campaign, Jimmy Kimmel spiking a Talarico interview, and Galveston County getting slapped down by the Texas Supreme Court for trying to redraw its voting maps mid-cycle.Rep. Cunningham walks through his path from a 30-year career at CenterPoint Energy and 12 years on the Humble ISD school board into the Texas House, where he's pushed bail reform legislation, worked on the state's multi-year property tax relief package, and helped stand up a first-of-its-kind dredging district to fund flood control on Lake Houston. Garrett then covers the biggest fights heating up Texas politics 60 days before Election Day.**Topics discussed:**- The 4 a.m. truck crash that pushed Cunningham into running for office- Bail reform: the Minimum Bond Act, "Felony on Bond," and ending the "revolving door"- Fights over who pays for judges — state vs. county funding- $51 billion in property tax relief over two legislative sessions- The push to cut state agency spending 3% to fund more property tax relief- School district budgets, personnel costs, and "underfunded" vs. "unfunded" mandates- Education Savings Accounts and school choice competition in Humble ISD- Flooding, dredging, and turning Lake Houston sediment into a funding source- A statewide GOP candidate's controversial post about UT students and the backlash from Texas Republican leadership- Republican outside money rushing in to boost Ken Paxton's Senate campaign- Jimmy Kimmel pulling a James Talarico interview off broadcast TV- Galveston County's blocked mid-cycle redistricting plan**Guest:** Charles Cunningham represents Texas House District 127 (Humble area) and serves on the Public Education, Local & Consent Calendars, and Public Health committees. He spent more than 30 years at CenterPoint Energy and served 12 years on the Humble ISD school board before his election in 2022. He pointed listeners to Texas Legislature Online and his campaign website for more information — exact URL not clearly stated on air, producer to confirm and fill in.**Sources:**- *Houston Public Media* — Sept. 14, 2026 — [Several Texas Republicans condemn Bo French's racist posts calling Asian students at UT a "problem"](https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2026/2026/09/14/561685/several-texas-republicans-condemn-bo-frenchs-racist-posts-calling-asian-students-at-ut-a-problem/)- *KERA News (Texas Tribune)* — By Gabby Birenbaum — Sept. 14, 2026 — [Senate Republicans finally mobilize with big money for Ken Paxton in Texas](https://www.keranews.org/politics/2026-09-14/senate-republicans-finally-mobilize-with-big-money-for-ken-paxton-in-texas)- *NBC News* — Sept. 10, 2026 — [Jimmy Kimmel says show won't air James Talarico interview on TV, citing FCC threats](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/jimmy-kimmel-abc-tv-show-wont-air-james-talarico-interview-fcc-threats-rcna596994)- *Houston Public Media* — By Julianna Washburn — Sept. 11, 2026 — [Texas Supreme Court blocks Galveston County from using new precinct map in November election](https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/galveston-county/2026/09/11/561599/texas-supreme-court-blocks-galveston-county-from-using-new-precinct-map-in-november-election/)Chapters0:00 Cold Open: This Week's Fights0:45 Meet Rep. Charles Cunningham1:33 The Wreck That Started It3:56 Bail Reform Wins & Fights11:27 Property Tax Relief Explained20:29 School Choice Rollout in Humble24:23 Flooding & the Dredging Fix34:06 A GOP Candidate's Meltdown41:13 Cash Floods In for Paxton45:00 Kimmel, Galveston & More NewsFind us at seeingredpodcast.substack.com for full episodes. Follow us on all socials at @theseeingredpod and online at our website Seeing Red Podcast. x.com/gwfulce 

Ryan Patrick, runs the group that's been the single biggest force behind Texas tort reform for 30 years. And right now, trial lawyer money is quietly flowing into Republican primaries to take him down. Ryan Patrick, CEO of Texans for Lawsuit Reform (TLR), joins Garrett to break down "nuclear verdicts," the medical billing fraud scheme inflating your insurance bill, and the shadowy Delaware-incorporated group of Republicans fighting his organization from the inside.The former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Texas under President Trump, a former Harris County state district judge, and now the CEO of TL, Ryan walks through how a small number of Texas counties and aggressive "billboard lawyers" are driving up insurance costs for every Texan, why Texas now leads the nation in verdicts over $10 million, and why a group of Republicans is now taking trial lawyer money to fight tort reform from inside the party.**Topics discussed:**- The history of Texans for Lawsuit Reform and Texas's "judicial hellhole" era in the 1990s- What a "nuclear verdict" actually is and why Texas now leads the country in them- How medical billing fraud and "letter of protection" schemes inflate lawsuit payouts- The hidden "lawsuit tax" — $3,000 to $4,200 a year added to Texas insurance premiums- TLR's push to put medical billing benchmarks in front of juries- The "RATLR's" — a Delaware-incorporated, trial-lawyer-funded group attacking TLR from inside the GOP- Judicial Fairness PAC and the fight to elect conservative judges in Harris, Dallas, and other urban counties- Third-party litigation funding, and concerns over foreign (including Chinese) money bankrolling Texas lawsuits- Why Ryan Patrick believes the 2026 elections could decide the future of tort reform in Texas**Guest:** Ryan Patrick, CEO of Texans for Lawsuit Reform (TLR). Find TLR at tortreform.com. **Sources:**- *Texas Tribune* — Aug. 12, 2026 — [Trial lawyers, once a force for Democrats, reclaim political clout in Texas GOP's MAGA wing](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/08/12/texas-trial-lawyers-gop-texans-for-lawsuit-reform-tort-civil-justice/)- *Dowd Bennett* — May 15, 2025 — [Texas codifies the Business Judgment Rule (SB 29)](https://www.dowdbennett.com/news/texas-codifies-the-business-judgment-rule/)- *Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC* — [TLRPAC- and JFPAC-Supported Candidates Dominate in General Election Contests](https://tlrpac.org/press_release/tlrpac-and-jfpac-supported-candidates-dominate-in-general-election-contests/)Chapters0:00 Meet Ryan Patrick, TLR's CEO0:53 What Texans for Lawsuit Reform Does6:45 What Are "Nuclear Verdicts"12:24 Inside the Medical Billing Fraud Scheme23:00 TLR's Fix: Benchmarking Jury Bills28:21 GOP Civil War: Meet the "Rattlers"37:22 Winning Texas's Judicial Races44:33 Foreign Money in Texas Lawsuits49:11 Where to Find TLRFind us at seeingredpodcast.substack.com for full episodes. Follow us on all socials at @theseeingredpod and online at our website Seeing Red Podcast. x.com/gwfulce