457: News of the Week 08/28/24

For most high-income professionals, the path to financial success seems straightforward: work hard, earn a great income, save diligently, and invest wisely. The problem is that even the highest-paying jobs have two significant limitations. First, much of what you earn is exposed to taxation. While there are certainly strategies to reduce your tax burden, there is a reason many of the wealthiest people in the world own businesses rather than simply collect paychecks. Business ownership creates opportunities for tax efficiency that are often unavailable to employees. Second, a job—even a very lucrative one—is generally not an asset you can sell. You may earn hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars per year, but when you stop working, the income stops too. A successful business, on the other hand, can generate ongoing cash flow while simultaneously building enterprise value. Over time, that value may become one of your most important assets and, ultimately, something you can sell for a substantial payout. Now, this is not a call to quit your day job and become an entrepreneur overnight. In fact, for many of us, the better question is whether there are opportunities to acquire an existing business rather than build one from scratch. Every day, thousands of profitable small and mid-sized businesses are owned by operators approaching retirement who may not have a succession plan. In many cases, these businesses can be acquired with financing, professional management, and a thoughtful growth strategy. This week's guest, Joe Prencipe, helps us understand exactly how that world works. Joe is an attorney who specializes in business acquisitions, sales, and deal structuring. In this episode, we discuss what makes a business valuable, how buyers and sellers often leave money on the table through poor planning, and why deal structure, taxes, financing, and operational realities frequently matter far more than the headline purchase price. We also discuss practical issues such as SBA financing, seller financing, valuation multiples, how to evaluate acquisition opportunities, and what characteristics make a business easier to grow and ultimately sell. Whether you already own a successful practice or business, are considering acquiring one, or simply want to understand why business ownership remains one of the most powerful wealth-building tools available, I think you'll find this conversation particularly valuable.

For those of us with kids, summer marks another milestone. School is out, graduation season is here, and for many families, college is right around the corner. My oldest daughter will be a senior this fall, which means our family is now officially entering the college application process. Like many parents, I've been looking at tuition numbers and mentally preparing myself for what feels like an inevitable financial hit. And it's a big one. When I started college in the early 1990s, the average annual cost of attending a private university was roughly $10,000-$15,000 per year. Today, many private schools are approaching or exceeding $90,000 annually when you include tuition, housing, fees, and living expenses. In some cases, sending a child to college can cost more than buying a house did a generation ago. At the same time, getting into many of these schools has become dramatically more competitive. Applications have exploded, acceptance rates have fallen, and students are expected to build résumés that would have looked extraordinary just a few decades ago. Given those realities, I assumed the process was fairly straightforward: write the checks and hope the investment pays off. What I learned from this week's guest, however, was surprising. Shellee Howard has spent decades helping families navigate college admissions, scholarships, and financial aid. One of the biggest myths she challenged is the belief that higher-income families don't qualify for meaningful financial assistance. According to Shellee, many affluent families leave substantial amounts of money on the table simply because they assume they won't qualify. We discuss merit scholarships, strategic college selection, FAFSA and CSS planning, scholarship negotiation tactics, and how certain schools are dramatically more generous than others. We also talk about recent rule changes affecting divorced families, why some assets are treated differently than others in aid calculations, and how proper planning can significantly reduce the total cost of attendance. Perhaps the most important takeaway is that college pricing is often far more flexible than most families realize. Whether your children are a few years away from college or applications are already underway, this episode may save you far more money than you expect.

Some of the best real estate investments in history were made when the headlines were overwhelmingly negative. When financing dries up, lenders become restrictive, sellers become motivated, and uncertainty keeps many investors on the sidelines, opportunities begin to emerge for those willing to look beyond today's fear. That is precisely where we find ourselves today. Commercial real estate has endured one of the most challenging environments in decades. Rising interest rates, tighter credit conditions, and a wave of new supply have placed significant pressure on many markets. Yet while these challenges have created distress, they have also created something investors haven't seen in years: the ability to buy quality assets at substantial discounts to replacement cost and prior valuations. The question is not whether opportunities exist. The question is where they exist and how to identify them. This week, I sat down with real estate investor and entrepreneur Victor Menasce to discuss what he's seeing across the commercial real estate landscape. We talk about why some multifamily properties are trading 30-40% below peak values, how oversupply is impacting certain markets, and why investors who understand local supply-and-demand dynamics may be positioned to benefit from the current dislocation. Victor also makes an important point that often gets lost in national discussions. Real estate is not one market. Every city, neighborhood, and asset class has its own story. While some areas remain challenged, others continue to benefit from powerful long-term drivers including population growth, immigration, healthcare demand, and housing affordability trends. Today's environment resembles the periods that have historically produced exceptional long-term returns. Institutional investors, family offices, and large private capital pools are increasingly stepping into distressed situations, not because they believe conditions are perfect, but because they recognize that buying quality assets during periods of pessimism has often been a winning strategy. Of course, success still requires discipline. Financing matters. Market selection matters. Understanding future supply matters. But for investors willing to do the work, today's market may ultimately be remembered less for the distress it created and more for the opportunities it presented.

A couple of weeks ago, I had Barry Habib on the podcast talking about where he believes interest rates and the economy may be headed over the next several years. Barry has been one of the more accurate voices in housing and mortgage finance during a period when many economists and market commentators have repeatedly gotten it wrong. This week, I wanted to continue that discussion with mortgage industry veteran Rob Chrisman because I think there's a bigger lesson here for investors. Right now, the stock market is near all-time highs again, and naturally, people want in. Investors are drawn toward momentum. They feel safer buying things that have already gone up. At the exact same time, many areas of real estate—particularly multifamily—have already experienced massive repricing, with some assets trading 30–40% below peak valuations from just a few years ago. And yet most investors are far more comfortable chasing expensive assets than buying discounted ones. That's the irony of investing. As Warren Buffett famously said, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Easy to say. Very hard to do. Part of the reason this environment feels so confusing is because we are dealing with conflicting macroeconomic forces at the same time. On one side, you have persistent inflation concerns, massive government deficits, Treasury issuance, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty around Fed policy. All of those things can keep long-term interest rates elevated. On the other side, there are growing signs of slowing geopolitical tensions easing over time. I suspect that once the Iran conflict is resolved, we may start to see rates come down as energy prices help quell inflationary pressures, alongside broader economic activity, weakening consumer confidence, and eventually perhaps even disinflationary pressure from technology and AI-driven productivity gains. That's why both Barry Habib and Rob Chrisman make an important point that many investors still misunderstand: mortgage rates are not simply controlled by the Federal Reserve. Markets are constantly trying to price all of these competing forces in real time. Rob does a great job explaining how mortgage-backed securities, Treasury markets, inflation expectations, labor data, and global capital flows all interact to determine where rates go next. He also explains why the ultra-low rates of 2020 and 2021 were likely an anomaly created by extraordinary Federal Reserve intervention—not necessarily something we should anchor to as "normal." The bigger question for investors is this: Are today's elevated rates temporary noise within a longer-term descending rate cycle? Or are we entering a structurally different environment altogether? Because if rates ultimately move lower over the next several years, the assets currently under the most pressure today may eventually become the assets people wish they had bought when they were on sale.

This week's episode of Wealth Formula Podcast is a little different. What you're about to hear is actually a webinar I recently did with Chris Miles on a topic I've discussed on and off over the years called Wealth Formula Banking. Why play this on the podcast? Because I genuinely think more people need to understand the concept. It may or may not ultimately be right for you, but I think it's worth taking the time to understand it so you at least know it exists and can decide for yourself. For years, I ignored it completely because the phrase "be your own bank" honestly didn't trigger any interest in me. It sounded gimmicky. But eventually I sat down and actually learned how it worked, and once I understood the mechanics behind it, I realized this is one of those foundational financial concepts that every serious investor should at least understand. Because if this does fit into your financial life, the earlier you implement it, the more powerful it becomes. And that's really the key here: time, compounding, and velocity of money. Those things matter enormously. One of the most common things I hear from people who finally understand and implement this concept is, "I wish I had known about this 20 years earlier." In fact, Chris tells a story during the webinar about an older investor who basically said that if he had simply optimized how his cash flowed over the course of his investing lifetime—while doing everything else the same—he likely would have made millions more dollars. And that's really what this entire discussion is about. Most people think almost exclusively about what they invest in. Very few people think about where they invest from, and that distinction turns out to matter a lot. Because once you understand how banks, institutions, and wealthy families actually use capital, you begin to realize there may be ways to amplify the efficiency of the investments you are already making. That's what fascinated me about this concept years ago. In this webinar, we go deep into how the velocity of money works, why policy design matters enormously, how banks and wealthy families think differently about capital, and how this strategy can allow your money to continue compounding while simultaneously being deployed into investments. Whether you ultimately decide this is right for you or not, I think understanding the framework itself is valuable. Because if this is something that belongs in your financial life, waiting 10 or 20 years to learn about it can become a very expensive mistake. And by the way, if you'd prefer to watch the webinar with the slides and visuals instead of just listening to the audio here on the podcast, you can do that as well. The webinar replay link is right HERE. You can reach out to Chris at [email protected].

The stock market is sitting at or near all-time highs again. And what happens? People rush in. It's called FEAR OF MISSING OUT. Now compare that to what's happening in real estate. In many markets—especially multifamily—we've seen 30–40% price corrections from just 3–4 years ago. Our investor club has been buying, but most investors are sitting on the sidelines. Why? Because investments are the only things people don't naturally gravitate toward when they're on sale. When TVs go on sale, people line up. When stocks or real estate go on sale, people get nervous. I've quoted him a million times, but I'll do it again. Warren Buffett said it best: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." Simple in theory. Very hard in practice. Now, to be clear—this doesn't mean there's no risk. Rates may stay a bit elevated in the near term. Geopolitical issues, including the situation with Iran, can keep pressure on yields. But when you zoom out, there is a growing body of data suggesting that over the next 2–3 years, we are likely moving into a declining rate environment. And that's what matters. Because you don't invest today for tomorrow. You invest today for where the market is going. When rates come down: financing improves capital comes back into the market and asset values tend to reprice—often quickly So the real question is: Are you positioning now… or waiting until it feels safe again? The problem with waiting is that the sales always disappear. What I am saying to you now is not new. I've been repeating this narrative over and over again over the last year or two. But I felt like I had to repeat it because this week's guest on Wealth Formula Podcast is saying the same thing. He's a guy who is nationally recognized for consistently being ahead of the curve on rates, housing, and the broader economy, while many others have been wrong. Barry Habib. He's the founder of MBS Highway, a multiple-time Crystal Ball Award winner, and the author of Money in the Streets—a book all about understanding cycles and building wealth by acting before the crowd. In this conversation, we break down: where interest rates may be headed why inflation data may be misleading and what this all means for real estate investors—especially in multifamily. If you want to understand where this cycle is going—and where the opportunity may be—this is a conversation you don't want to miss.

I continue to be surprised by how many sophisticated investors still dismiss Bitcoin as purely speculative. At this point, whether you personally like Bitcoin or not is almost beside the point. The more important question is this: What happens to the price of an asset with a permanently fixed supply when institutional adoption accelerates globally? Because that is exactly what is happening right now. Let's start with the simple math. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. Exactly 21 million. And several million are believed to be permanently lost forever. Meanwhile, demand continues to expand at a remarkable pace. According to recent estimates, there are now roughly 559 million crypto users globally, approaching 10% of the world population. Institutional adoption is accelerating even faster. As of this year, spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated roughly $100 billion in assets under management in an extraordinarily short period of time. And remember—these ETFs only launched in early 2024. BlackRock alone has become one of the largest holders of Bitcoin in the world through its ETF products. That's BlackRock. The same firm that manages roughly $10 trillion in assets globally. Larry Fink, who once openly criticized Bitcoin, now refers to it as a legitimate alternative asset class and even a potential hedge against currency debasement. This is not fringe finance anymore. And here is where the supply-demand imbalance becomes fascinating. After the most recent Bitcoin halving, annual new Bitcoin issuance dropped to approximately 164,000 BTC per year. Yet estimates suggest corporations and institutions alone now hold well over 1 million Bitcoin combined. In other words, institutional demand is already consuming supply at a pace that dramatically exceeds new issuance. That matters. A lot.Now think about Bitcoin in the context of global wealth. Gold currently has an approximate market capitalization around $20 trillion. Bitcoin fluctuates closer to roughly $1.5 trillion. So if Bitcoin merely achieved parity with gold as a store-of-value asset, you are talking about a potential order-of-magnitude increase from current levels. And some very serious people are beginning to think even that may underestimate the opportunity. Larry Fink recently suggested that if sovereign wealth funds globally decided to allocate just 2–5% into Bitcoin, prices could theoretically move into the several hundred thousand dollar range per coin. Again, you don't have to agree. But ignore this at your own peril. Because Bitcoin is no longer sitting outside the financial system looking in. It is slowly becoming integrated into the plumbing of the system itself. That integration is where things start getting really interesting. Historically, assets become truly institutional once they can be borrowed against, lent against, securitized, collateralized, and incorporated into traditional underwriting systems. That is exactly what is beginning to happen with Bitcoin right now. And this week's episode of Wealth Formula Podcast is a very tangible example of that transition already underway. I interviewed Josip Rupena, founder of Milo. What Milo is doing is genuinely fascinating. They are building crypto-backed mortgages that allow investors to purchase homes without selling their Bitcoin holdings. Think about the implications of that for a moment. Traditionally, if someone wanted to buy real estate using appreciated Bitcoin, they had to sell the asset, trigger taxes, lose future upside exposure, and convert back into the traditional banking system. Milo's model changes that dynamic. Instead of forcing liquidation, Bitcoin itself can function as part of the collateral structure. That is a major conceptual shift. And whether you are bullish on Bitcoin or not, I think it represents an important glimpse into where finance may be heading.

There's a strange paradox when it comes to wealth. The more you have, the more invisible risk you carry. And most people don't see it until it's too late. I've seen this play out in a lot of different ways. A physician builds a multi-million dollar net worth over decades—real estate, brokerage accounts, maybe a business or two. Everything looks solid. Then one lawsuit hits. Or a divorce. Or even just a poorly structured partnership dispute. Suddenly, assets that felt "owned" aren't really protected at all. On the flip side, I've also seen people with less wealth sleep better at night because their structure is airtight. Everything is compartmentalized. Risks are isolated. There's a system. The difference isn't intelligence. It isn't even an investment skill. It's structure. Most people think trusts are something you set up when you are ultra-wealthy or you're older… maybe as part of an estate plan. But that's barely scratching the surface. A well-designed trust isn't just about passing assets when you die. It's about: – Who actually controls your assets while you're alive – What a creditor can (and can't) touch – And how much of your financial life is exposed vs. insulated In other words, it's about whether your wealth is fragile… or antifragile. And yet, this is where a lot of people get it wrong. They set up a trust… and then completely ignore the rules that make it work. They treat it like their personal checking account. They mix funds. They sign things incorrectly. And without realizing it, they've essentially built a paper shield that disappears the moment it's tested. So this week, I wanted to dig into this topic with someone who has spent decades designing these structures for high-net-worth individuals. On this week's episode of Wealth Formula Podcast, I sit down with Mark Pierce, an attorney who specializes in asset protection, trusts, and advanced legal structures. We talk about: – What a trust actually is (and what it isn't) – The real difference between revocable and irrevocable structures – Why timing matters more than most people realize – How asset protection trusts actually hold up in the real world – And the biggest mistakes people make that completely undermine their own planning If you've ever wondered whether your current structure actually protects you… or if it just makes you feel better on paper… this is a conversation worth paying attention to.

When it comes to investing, boring is good. In fact, in most cases, boring is exactly what you want. The fewer moving parts an investment has, the fewer ways it can break. You're not relying on perfect timing, you're not depending on some heroic execution, and you're not sitting there hoping everything lines up just right. It just… works. That's why a lot of the stuff I like—cash-flowing real estate, simple structures, things with predictable outcomes—tends to look pretty unexciting on the surface. But over time, that's where wealth is built. But… boring rarely creates outsized wealth. The biggest wins almost always come from things that are the opposite of boring. If you bought Bitcoin ten years ago and held it, that wasn't a conservative decision. That was a bet. A bet on something with massive uncertainty that most people didn't understand. Same thing in Silicon Valley. Most startups fail. Everybody knows it. But the ones that work? They don't just work—they hit so big that they make up for everything else. And then there's this other category of investments. Investments that you make not just because of the potential return—but because they're interesting. Because they give you access. Because they give you experiences. Because, frankly, they're kind of fun. Being able to say you're a Hollywood film investor and you showed up at the premiere… maybe even made a cameo? That's a different kind of return. Is it the safest place to put money? Obviously not. But not everything in your portfolio has to be purely clinical either. Know the risk and decide if it's worth it. That's what this week's Wealth Formula Podcast is about. I sat down with Jeff Deverett, and we kept it pretty simple: film investing is high risk. Most of it doesn't work. But it's also one of those areas where the upside, the structure, and frankly the experience itself can make it worth understanding—if you go in with your eyes open. If nothing else, it'll change the way you think about what you're actually investing in… and why.

If you want to understand where money is going… don't listen to what people say. Watch what happens when the system is under stress. Right now, in the Strait of Hormuz—arguably the most important energy chokepoint in the world—Iran has effectively taken control of transit and, in some cases, is demanding payment in bitcoin for passage. Why? Because when you're operating under heavy sanctions, the traditional system stops working. Payments can be blocked. Assets can be frozen. Transactions can be tracked and shut down. So you move to something that doesn't rely on permission. In this case, that means digital assets—Bitcoin, stablecoins, anything that allows settlement outside the banking system. This isn't theoretical anymore. It's happening in the middle of a real geopolitical conflict—one that has already disrupted a massive portion of global oil flows and pushed prices higher. Now step back for a second. That core idea—avoiding counterparty risk—is not new. That's exactly why gold has existed as money for thousands of years. No counterparty No issuer No reliance on a system But Bitcoin introduces a different version of that same idea. It's: digital highly liquid instantly transferable No shipping. No storage. No borders. So now you have two assets solving the same fundamental problem—just in very different ways. Of course, the pushback on Bitcoin is always volatility. "It's too volatile to be a store of value." But think about that carefully. Bitcoin is still small relative to gold. It doesn't take much capital to move it. So is the volatility the problem… or just a reflection of its current market capitalization? And what happens if that changes? Meanwhile, gold—the original hard asset—has quietly been doing exactly what it's supposed to do. After years of going nowhere, it's been one of the biggest beneficiaries of everything we're seeing right now: Geopolitical instability Central bank accumulation A growing lack of trust in the financial system So the question for investors is: Has gold already made its move… or is this just getting started? That's what we get into on this week's Wealth Formula Podcast. My guest is David Beahm, President and CEO of Blanchard and Company, one of the oldest precious metals firms in the U.S. We talk about what's actually driving gold, the debate between physical gold and ETFs, the real-world issues around liquidity and taxes, and how to think about gold in a world where Bitcoin is no longer theoretical—it's being used in real geopolitical situations.