The Surprisal

Rob Carver is a former hedge fund manager who ran Man AHL's multi-billion dollar fixed income portfolio and was responsible for creating AHL's fundamental global macro strategy. Since leaving AHL in 2013, he has been trading his own capital, writing books, and lecturing at Queen Mary University of London.In this first episode of The Surprisal, we start with Rob's essay "Should billionaires and bricklayers have the same investments?" and use it to explore why gambling can be quite rational for a lot of people.We discuss why people pay (i.e. accept negative expected returns) for risk, and what the Kelly criterion implies for the menu of investment options available to them.We also discuss the marginal utility of wealth, the reasons behind the rise of gambling culture among young people, and why Rob still buys lottery tickets.For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.-----Chapters(00:00) - Opening (01:33) - Should billionaires and bricklayers have the same investments? (03:24) - Why people pay for risk (07:20) - Leverage & the Kelly criterion (10:29) - Gambling & utility functions (19:28) - Land theory of gambling culture (22:58) - Envy theory of gambling culture (27:32) - Markov chains & diminishing marginal utility of wealth (33:34) - Gambling: why is it rational for some? (38:05) - Why Rob buys lottery tickets (41:19) - The “permanent underclass” meme & why Rob quit his hedge fund job