Carl Tannenbaum: Settling Into 'Soft-Landing Territory'

Our guest on the podcast today is Anne Tergesen. Anne is a reporter covering retirement for The Wall Street Journal. Her stories often explore how retirement and preparing for retirement are changing today. She writes frequently on topics related to 401(k) plans and retirement savings, spending, and legislation. She also writes about employee benefits, longevity, and aging. Before joining the Journal, Anne worked for BusinessWeek magazine covering personal finance. Together with colleagues, she recently won a Front Page Award from the News Women’s Club of New York and was a finalist for Gerald Loeb Award. She was awarded a Knight-Bagehot Fellowship at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Journalism and won a Best of Knight-Bagehot Award in 2006. Anne started her career covering local news at The Philadelphia Inquirer.BackgroundBioThe Wall Street Journal articles401(k)s and Retirement“More Americans Are Treating Their 401(k)s Like Cash Machines,” by Anne Tergesen, wsj.com, March 11, 2024.“6% of Your Paycheck Is Becoming the New Standard for 401(k) Saving,” by Anne Tergesen, wsj.com, June 28, 2024.“The 401(k) Investors Convinced That Target-Date Funds Miss the Mark,” by Anne Tergesen and Oyin Adedoyin, wsj.com, Aug. 3, 2024.“The 401(k) Rollover Mistake That Costs Retirement Savers Billions,” by Anne Tergesen, wsj.com, July 22, 2024.“Is Your Company’s 401(k) Match Unfair?” by Anne Tergesen, wsj.com, May 25, 2024.“Retire at 65? It’s More Like 62,” by Anne Tergesen, wsj.com, April 25, 2024.“David John: Improving the Retirement System,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 27, 2022.Automatic: Changing the Way America Saves, by William Gale, Mark Iwry, and David John“The Way We Retire Now,” a Wall Street Journal Series by Anne Tergesen and Veronica Dagher.“Here’s What Retirement Looks Like in America in Six Charts,” by Anne Tergesen, Veronica Dagher, and Rosie Ettenheim, wsj.com, March 31, 2023.“She’s a Retirement Authority—And Still Made Mistakes. Here’s What She’d Do Differently,” by Anne Tergesen, wsj.com, Oct. 12, 2024.“Is There Really a Retirement-Savings Crisis?” by Anne Tergesen, wsj.com, April 23, 2017.OtherVanguard’s “How America Saves 2024”“The U-Shape of Happiness Across the Life Course: Expanding the Discussion,” by Nancy Galambos, Harvey Krahn, Matthew Johnson, and Margie Lachman, National Library of Medicine, July 1, 2021.Employee Benefit Research InstituteDavid Blanchett“The Retirement Crisis: Perception Vs. Reality,” by PGIM Global Communications, pgim.com, July 9, 2024.Laura SaundersMichael Kitces

Our guest on the podcast today is Phil Moeller. He’s the primary author of the Get What’s Yours series of consumer guidebooks, including a newly revised edition of Get What’s Yours for Medicare: Maximize Your Coverage, Minimize Your Costs. In addition, the series includes Get What’s Yours: The Revised Secrets to Maxing Out Your Social Security and Get What’s Yours for Health Care: How to Get the Best Care at the Right Price. Phil wrote the “Ask Phil” Medicare column for the PBS NewsHour website, Making Sense, reported on aging healthcare and retirement for Money magazine, and wrote “The Best Life” feature on aging and retirement for US News & World Report. He began his career as a newspaper business reporter and editor, and has worked for The Baltimore Sun, The Charlotte Observer, The Chicago Sun Times, The Hartford Business Journal, and The Louisville Courier Journal. He later founded the insure.com consumer website and also worked as a communications executive for a large insurance company.BackgroundBioGetWhatsYours.orgInsure.comBooks: Get What’s Yours for Medicare: Maximize Your CoverageGet What’s Yours: The Revised Secrets to Maxing Out Your Social SecurityGet What’s Yours for Health Care: How to Get the Best Care at the Right PriceParts of Medicare Explained“Phil Moeller: What’s New for Medicare—and More—in 2024?” by Phil Moeller, uhc.com, Jan. 10, 2024.“Phil Moeller: Filling the Coverage Gaps in Medicare,” by Phil Moeller, uhc.com, Sept. 25, 2024.Get Started With MedicareWhat Part A CoversWhat Part B CoversMedicare Advantage PlansWhat Medicare Part D Drug Plans CoverCompare Medigap Plan BenefitsWorking Past 65Private Insurance“Learning to Love Insurance Brokers (Within Limits!),” by Phil Moeller, substack.com, April 22, 2024.“Medicare Moment by Phil Moeller: Moving From Employer Health Insurance to Medicare,” Video by Phil Moeller, uhc.com, Nov. 21, 2022.Other“Washington State Establishes a Long-Term Care Program,” by Alicia H. Munnell, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, crr.bc.edu, Aug. 13, 2024.Medicare Plan FinderMedicare & YouKFF

Today on the podcast, we welcome back Jonathan Clements. Jonathan was one of our first guests when we launched this podcast, and today marks his third appearance. He’s the founder and editor of HumbleDollar, and he has written or edited several books about money and investing, including My Money Journey and How to Think About Money. Earlier in his career, Jonathan spent almost 20 years at The Wall Street Journal, where he was the newspaper’s personal finance columnist and six years at Citigroup, where he was director of financial education for the bank’s US Wealth Management arm. This past June, Jonathan shared his devastating recent cancer diagnosis, and he’s been writing candidly about the experience on HumbleDollar. We’ll link to those posts in the show notes. I wanted to conduct today’s interview solo because Jonathan’s work has been hugely influential to me personally, and he also wrote the foreword to my forthcoming book. I couldn’t be more grateful.BackgroundBioHumbleDollar“Jonathan Clements: ‘It’s in Wall Street’s Interest to Make Everyday Investors Think That They Are Stupid,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, July 31, 2019.“Jonathan Clements: ‘Humility Is a Hallmark of People Who Are Financially Successful,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Dec. 26, 2023.BooksMy Money Journal: How 30 People Found Financial Freedom—And You Can TooFrom Here to Financial Happiness: Enrich Your Life in Just 77 DaysHow to Think About MoneyArticles“Turned Upside Down,” by Jonathan Clements, humbledollar.com, Oct. 5, 2024.“Never Quite Enough,” by Jonathan Clements, humbledollar.com, Sept. 21, 2024.“Opinion: Living Was Easy. Dying Is Harder,” by Jonathan Clements, washingtonpost.com, Aug. 28, 2024.OtherHow to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful, and Wealthy Retirement, by Christine Benz, Forward by Jonathan ClementsEGFR Exon 20 Insertion Mutation and Lung Cancer“FDA Approves Amivantamab-vmjw for EGFR Exon 20 Insertion-Mutated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Indications,” fda.gov, March 1, 2024.“Jonathan Guyton: What the Crisis Means for Retirement Planning,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 17, 2020.“Bill Bernstein: Revisiting the Four Pillars of Investing,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, July 11, 2023.“Jason Zweig: Temperament Is Everything for Most Investors,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 29, 2021.

Today on the podcast, we’re delighted to welcome back Jeremy Grantham. Jeremy is the long-term investment strategist at his namesake firm, Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., or GMO, which he cofounded in 1977. He serves on GMO’s Asset Allocation Committee and board of directors. Prior to GMO, Jeremy was cofounder of Batterymarch Financial Management and before that was an economist at Royal Dutch Shell. He earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Sheffield and his MBA from Harvard University. Jeremy is a member of the Academy of Arts and Sciences, holds a CBE from the UK, and is a recipient of the Carnegie Medal of Philanthropy. In 1997, he and his family started the Grantham Foundation for the protection of the environment, which supports research and action to address climate change.BackgroundBioGMOGrantham FoundationGMO Quality IIIGMO US Quality ETF“Jeremy Grantham: The US Market Is in a Super Bubble,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Feb. 8, 2022.Bubbles and the Market“The Great Paradox of the US Market,” by Jeremy Grantham, gmo.com, March 11, 2024.“AI Craze Stokes ‘Bubble Within a Bubble,’ Says GMO’s Jeremy Grantham,” by Christine Idzelis, marketwatch.com, March 11, 2024.“Entering the Superbubble’s Final Act,” by Jeremy Grantham, gmo.com, Aug. 31, 2022.“Jeremy Grantham Says the AI Bubble Will Burst and Take the Stock Market Down With It. Here Are His 14 Best Quotes From an Event This Week,” by Theron Mohamed, markets.businessinsider.com, Feb. 18, 2024.“China Turmoil Poses a Risk to the Magnificent 7, Jeremy Grantham’s GMO Says,” by Yuheng Zhan, markets.businessinsider.com, Feb. 9, 2024.The Environment and Sustainability“Sustainability or Bust: The Sheer Impossibility of Eternal Compound Growth,” by Jeremy Grantham, gmo.com, March 18, 2024.“GMO Horizons,” by Jeremy Grantham, gmo.com, Feb. 27, 2024.“Pollution, Population, and Purpose,” The Great Simplification podcast with Nate Hagens and Jeremy Grantham, gmo.com, Feb. 15, 2024.“Jeremy Grantham Assesses Long-Term Threats Through an Investor Lens,” by William Hughes, cruxinvestor.com, Dec. 31, 2023.

Our guest this week is Jack Nelson. Jack is lead manager of the Stewart Investors’ Global Emerging Markets Leaders Sustainability strategy, which is highly regarded by Morningstar’s manager research team. Jack joined Stewart in Edinburgh, Scotland, in 2011 after obtaining an MA from Oxford.BackgroundBioStewart InvestorsEmerging Markets“Global Emerging Markets Sustainability Strategies Update,” Q&A With Jack Nelson, stewartinvestors.com, April 2023.“Finding Resilient Businesses in Emerging Markets Is Key to Long-Term Success,” by Jack Nelson, trustnet.com, Dec. 15, 2022.“Stewart Investors’ Global Emerging Markets Sustainability Strategy Marks 15-Year Anniversary With Benchmark-Beating Returns,” prnewswire.com, May 7, 2024.“Go Beyond the Data to Find Quality Sustainable Investments in Emerging Markets,” by Jack Nelson, investordaily.com, July 16, 2024.“Stewart Investors Launches EMs ex-China Sustainability Fund,” by Natalie Kenway, portfolio-adviser.com, July 11. 2024.Artificial Intelligence“Am I Invested in AI?” stewartinvestors.com, Aug. 4, 2024.“A + I Equals More Than NVDA,” stewartinvestors.com, March 27, 2024.OtherThe Rise and Fall of American Growth: The US Standard of Living Since the Civil War, by Robert GordonInovanceYifeng Pharmacy Chain Co LtdSamsung Electronics“Unilever’s India Unit to Rebrand ‘Fair & Lovely’ to ‘Grow & Lovely,’” reuters.com, July 2, 2020.Principles for Responsible InvestingDelta Electronics

Our guest this week is Ankur Crawford. Ankur is a executive vice president and portfolio manager at Fred Alger Management, based in New York City. Ankur comanages the Alger Capital Appreciation Fund, which is highly regarded by Morningstar’s Manager Research Team, among other US large-cap growth equity strategies. She’s also the sole manager in the Alger Concentrated Equity Strategy, which is available as both an ETF and a traditional mutual fund. Prior to joining Alger in 2004, Ankur worked as an engineer at Intel and earned a PhD in material science and engineering from Stanford.BackgroundBioAlger Capital Appreciation FundAlger Concentrated Equity StrategyMarket Volatility“Bad News Is Good News for the Market Again, Says Alger’s Ankur Crawford,” Closing Bell interview, cnbc.com, May 14, 2024.“The ‘Magnificent 7’ Should Have Another Good Earnings Season, Says Alger’s Ankur Crawford,” Closing Bell interview, cnbc.com, June 20, 2024.Artificial Intelligence“AI and the Declining Cost to Create,” by Ankur Crawford and Patrick Kelly, alger.com.“Empowering Intelligence,” by Ankur Crawford and Patrick Kelly, alger.com.“Still Very Early on in the AI Megacycle, Says Alger’s Crawford,” Squawk on the Street interview, youtube.com, Feb. 15, 2024.“AI Adoption Looks Like ‘Structural Imperative’ for all Companies, Says Alger’s Ankur Crawford,” Closing Bell interview, youtube.com.OtherCadence Design SystemsMartin Marietta Materials

We’re doing something a little different this week. Amy Arnott and Dan Lefkovitz are flipping the microphone around and interviewing the anchor host of this podcast, Christine Benz, about her new her book, How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful, and Wealthy Retirement. Christine is director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar. She has been with the company since 1993, where she’s served as director of the fund research team, editor of Morningstar Mutual Funds, and cofounder of this podcast in 2019. She has written several books about investing. Christine is a proud graduate of the University of Illinois.BackgroundBio and archiveHow to RetireHow to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful, and Wealthy Retirement by Christine BenzThe Psychology of Money by Morgan HouselNonfinancial Aspects of RetirementMichael FinkeJordan GrumetLaura CarstensenAnnuities, Retirement Portfolio Planning, and Social SecurityWade PfauRetirement Income Style AwarenessWilliam BernsteinFritz Gilbert/The Retirement Manifesto“The Ultimate Pre-Retirement Checklist,” by Fritz Gilbert, The Retirement Manifesto, March 27, 2018.Freedom for FidoMary Beth FranklinJonathan Guyton“Decision Rules and Maximum Initial Withdrawal Rates,” by Jonathan Guyton and William Klinger, FPA Journal.Jamie HopkinsThe Bucket ApproachHarold Evensky“The Bucket Approach to Building a Retirement Portfolio,” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, Nov. 23, 2022.“The Bucket Approach Is Flawed—Here’s a Better Way,” by Rob Berger, Forbes.com, Aug. 2, 2020.“Do You Need More Than 3 Buckets?” by Christine Benz and Susan Dziubinski, Morningstar.com, May 22, 2024.HousingMark MillerHealthcare, Long-Term Care, and Estate PlanningCarolyn McClanahanCameron HuddlestonMom and Dad, We Need to Talk: How to Have Essential Conversations With Your Parents About Their Finances, by Cameron Huddleston, June 25, 2019.Jennifer RozelleOther“Carl Richards: ‘Let’s Focus on Being a Little Less Wrong Tomorrow,‘” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 13, 2020.

Our guest this week is Dr. Hendrik Bessembinder. Hank is the professor in Francis J. and Mary B. Labriola Chair in Competitive Business at Arizona State University’s Department of Finance. Prof. Bessembinder’s research focuses on market design and trading, including stock, foreign exchange, fixed income, futures, and energy markets, as well as on measuring long-term investment performance. He’s published numerous articles in the Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, and Review of Financial Studies, among others.In today’s conversation, we’ll focus on the most widely cited and influential of Prof. Bessembinder’s papers, which is entitled, Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills? The paper’s key findings could have implications for stock investors of all stripes. So, we were excited to talk to Hank and dig into his work. You can find this paper and other follow-on work that Hank has done on SSRN and we’ll link to it in the show notes.BackgroundBioResearch“Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?” by Hendrik Bessembinder, ssrn.com, June 3, 2018.“Wealth Creation in the US Public Stock Markets 1926 to 2019,” by Hendrik Bessembinder, ssrn.com, Feb. 13, 2020.“Which US Stocks Generated the Highest Long-Term Returns,” by Hendrik Bessembinder, ssrn.com, July 22, 2024.“Long-Horizon Stock Returns Are Positively Skewed,” by Adam Farago and Erik Hjalmarsson, Review of Finance, April 6, 2022.“Why Has IPO Underpricing Changed Over Time?” by Tim Loughran and Jay Ritter, Financial Management Journal, Autumn 2004.“Long-Run Stock Market Returns: Probabilities of Big Gains and Post-Event Returns,” by Hendrik Bessembinder, ssrn.com, Dec. 27, 2021.“Extreme Stock Market Performers, Part I: Expect Some Drawdowns,” by Hendrik Bessembinder, ssrn.com, July 21, 2020.“Shareholder Wealth Enhancement, 1926 to 2022,” by Hendrik Bessembinder, ssrn.com, June 17, 2023.“Long-Term Shareholder Returns: Evidence From 64,000 Global Stocks,” by Hendrik Bessembinder, Te-Feng Chen, Goeun Choi, and K.C. John Wei, ssrn.com, March 6, 2023.“Predictable Corporate Distributions and Stock Returns,” by Hendrik Bessembinder, ssrn.com, Nov. 24, 2014.OtherCenter for Research in Security Prices (CRSP)“What Is Jensen’s Measure (Alpha), and How Is It Calculated?” by James Chen, Investopedia.com, July 1, 2024.

Our guest on the podcast today is Kathy Stokes. Kathy is director of Fraud Prevention Programs with AARP, where she leads AARP’s efforts to educate older adults on the risks that fraud represents to their financial security. Kathy currently serves on the advisory council to the board of the International Association of Financial Crimes Investigators and on the advisory council to the Senior Issues Committee of the North American Securities Administrators Association. Kathy also serves on a Federal Reserve Working Group on scam information sharing. Before joining AARP, Kathy managed her own company, KSM Communications, and she also held various roles in public affairs at the Brookings Institution, Ernst & Young, Mercer, and the Employee Benefit Research Institute. She received her bachelor’s degree in rhetoric and communications at the University of Pittsburgh and her master’s in American government at Johns Hopkins University.BackgroundBioInternational Association of Financial Crimes InvestigatorsSenior Issues Committee of the North American Securities Administrators AssociationFederal Reserve Fraud Definitions Work GroupFinancial Fraud“6 Common Types of Investment Fraud and How to Identify Them,” by Cheryl Winokur Munk, aarp.org, April 11, 2024.“Data Spotlight: Who Experiences Scams? A Story for All Ages,” by Emma Fletcher, ftc.gov, Dec. 8, 2022.“Data Spotlight: Social Media: A Golden Goose for Scammers,” by Emma Fletcher, ftc.gov, Oct. 6, 2023.“Americans Reported Losing a Record $10 Billion to Scams and Fraud in 2023,” by Christina Ianzito, aarp.org, Feb. 9, 2024.“Many Americans Worry About Becoming Scam Victims, New Report Finds,” by Christina Ianzito, aarp.org, May 8, 2024.“Precious Metals Scams Target Investors Amid the Pandemic,” by Hanna Kozlowska, aarp.org, Jan. 19, 2022.“What You Need to Know to Protect Yourself Against Bank Scams,” by Patrick J. Kiger, aarp.org, Aug. 12, 2024.Crypto and AI“What to Know About Cryptocurrency Scams,” by Patrick J. Kiger, aarp.org, March 15, 2024.“New Technology Has Supercharged an Old, Formidable Foe: Fraud,” by Martha Boudreau, linkedin.com, April 18, 2024.“AI Fuels New, Frighteningly Effective Scams,” by Christina Ianzito, aarp.org, April 3, 2024.Senior Fraud“‛She Hooked Me’: How an Online Scam Cost a Senior Citizen His Life’s Savings,” by Feliz Solomon, wsj.com, June 8, 2024.“5 Ways to Prevent Elder Financial Exploitation,” by John Rosengren, aarp.org, June 10, 2024.“How to Keep a Loved One With Cognitive Decline Safe From Scams,” by Christina Ianzito, aarp.org, June 28, 2024.ResourcesBrokercheck.finra.orgInvestor.govBankSafeThinkingaheadroadmap.orgaarp.org/scammapAARP Fraud Watch Network Helpline: 877-908-3360Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3)

On today’s podcast, we’ll chat with two global asset-allocation specialists, Omar Aguilar from Charles Schwab and Sébastien Page from T. Rowe Price. Omar is CEO and chief investment officer for Schwab Asset Management. Before joining Schwab in 2011, he worked at a variety of firms including Financial Engines, ING Investment Management, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch Investment Management, and Bankers Trust.And Sébastien Page is head of Global Multi-Asset Investing at T. Rowe Price, where he oversees a team of investment professionals dedicated to the firm’s multi-asset portfolios. He’s a member of T. Rowe Price’s Asset Allocation Committee, and he’s also a member of the Management Committee of T. Rowe Price Group. Prior to joining the firm in 2015, Sébastien was an executive vice president at Pimco, where he led a team focused on research and development of multi-asset solutions. And he was a senior managing director at State Street Global Markets before that.BackgroundBios: Omar AguilarSébastien PageBeyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation, by Sébastien PageCurrent Economic Environment“Eight Ways RIAs, Investors View Markets Over the Next Year: Schwab,” by Dinah Wisenberg Brin, thinkadvisor.com, June 14, 2024.“The Fed Will Now Focus on Unemployment and Labor Markets, Says Charles Schwab’s Omar Aguilar,” Video interview on Closing Bell: Overtime, cnbc.com, July 15, 2024.“All Eyes on Central Banks,” 2024 Global Market Outlook Midyear Update, troweprice.com, June 2024.“Inflation’s Ripple Effect on the Economy,” Market Overtime interview with Omar Aguilar, youtube.com.“Why a Weaker Jobs Market Is Sparking Recession Fears,” by Scott Horsley, npr.org, Aug. 2, 2024.“Inflation Coming Down Too Fast Could Hurt Earnings, Says T.Rowe Price’s Sebastien Page,” Video interview on Closing Bell: Overtime, cnbc.com, Jan. 30, 2024.“The Four Horsemen of the Recession,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, June 2, 2023.“US Economy in ‘Solid Position’ Despite Slowing Job Growth, Says Schwab’s Aguilar,” Video interview on Squawk on the Street, cnbc.com, Aug. 4, 2023.“Special Topic: Can the Fed Cut Rates With Financial Conditions This Loose?” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, June 27, 2024.“2024 Global Market Outlook: Tectonic Shifts Create New Opportunities,” by Arif Husain, Sébastien Page, and Justin Thomson, linkedin.com, Dec. 21, 2023.Asset Allocation“Perspective: Asset Classes Versus Risk Factors or Asset Classes and Risk Factors?” by Sébastien Page, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Dec. 31, 2023.“The Myth of Diversification Reconsidered,” by William Kinlaw, Mark Kritzman, Sébastien Page, and David Turkington, The Journal of Portfolio Management, August 2021.“Personalized Target-Date Funds,” by Kobby Aboagye, Sébastien Page, Louisa Schafer, and James Tzitzouris, The Journal of Portfolio Management, March 2024.“The Hottest Debate in Asset Allocation: Value vs. Growth Stocks,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, April 25, 2024.“The Sector X-Ray,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, Aug. 31, 2023.Valuation and Interest Rates“When Valuation Fails,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, May 29, 2024.“Relative Valuation: A Crucial but Imperfect Guide,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, Feb. 8, 2024.“Is the Market Broadening?” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, Jan. 8, 2024.“Let’s Get Real (About Interest Rates),” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, March 7, 2024.Other“The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Definition and How It’s Calculated,” by Mallika Mitra, Investopedia.com, Aug. 5, 2024.