The Greek Current

There’s one story dominating headlines in Greece these days, and it’s all about the Great Sea Interconnector as a French-flagged vessel set sail from Greece to carry out surveys for the project that will link the Greek and Cypriot power networks, eventually extending to Israel.Turkey has long objected to this project, flexing its Blue Homeland doctrine and arguing that it needs Ankara's approval. Greece and Cyprus issued navigational warnings ahead of surveys kicking off, prompting a counter-warnings from Turkey. Meanwhile, behind-the-scenes contacts took place between France, which is a stakeholder in the GSI, and Turkey to overcome the impasse.This diplomatic activity has raised some eyebrows in Athens, particularly among the opposition, which asked whether a diplomatic note sent by the French company undertaking the project to Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Turkey amounted to seeking Ankara’s permission. Athens insists that the project is moving forward without any concession to Turkey, with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis saying that “only Greece and Cyprus have granted permission” for the French research vessel to operate in the area.This isn’t just an issue concerning Greece, Cyprus, Israel, France, and Turkey, but also the European Union, which backs the project, and which recently forcefully rejected one of the pillars of Turkey’s Blue Homeland doctrine, the Turkey-Libya maritime deal. These developments, and other issues related to security and defense, trade, and the deterioration of the rule of law in Turkey are all issues the EU will be called upon to address as it looks to deal with Ankara.While the stories dominating the headlines focused on the GSI, we saw Foreign Policy magazine put the spotlight on an under-reported story in the East Med that ties in to everything we’ve been discussing. That’s the emergence of Cyprus as a key security partner for the West, and a quiet but significant revolution in US-Cypriot relations.Nektaria Stamouli, Vassilis Nedos, Marc Pierini, Alan Makovsky and Jonah Brody join Thanos Davelis this week as we look into the latest developments on the Great Sea Interconnector, the EU’s Turkey challenge, and Cyprus’ growing role in the East Med.A little more info on our guests:Nektaria Stamouli is the deputy editor in chief of Kathimerini's English Edition and Politico's Eastern Mediterranean correspondent.Vassilis Nedos is Kathimerini's diplomatic and defense editor.Marc Pierini is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and former EU ambassador to Turkey.Alan Makovsky is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.Jonah Brody is a policy analyst at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.You can support The Greek Current by joining HALC as a member here. 

This week our theme is none other than elections. The midterms this week saw Democrats sweep into power in both the House of Representatives and the Senate in what many are calling a “blue tsunami” that is already upending the political scene in Washington, DC.Tuesday’s Democratic wave also amounted to a stinging rebuke of President Trump’s policies, as voters frustrated by a cost of living crisis and affordability questions, high gas prices, and an intractable war with Iran, sent a clear message to the White House and the President, who repeatedly told voters on the campaign trail, “pretend I’m on the ballot.”While we wait to see how Democrats will look to assert themselves in the new Congress, President Trump still has two more years in office, and can wield power to great effect, especially on foreign policy. America’s allies, particularly in Europe, will be watching closely to see what his next moves are on this front.It wasn’t just Democrats that won big on Tuesday. The Greek American community also had a historic evening. The big story here is Chris Pappas’ election to the Senate, a win that means the community will have one of its own in the Senate for the first time since 2013. Beyond the Senate, Greek Americans scored important wins across the country, from the House of Representatives to statewide elections.With the midterms in the rearview mirror, we can now focus on another election with global significance. That’s the race for the top job at the UN, as the current Secretary General Antonio Guterres is set to step down. With the race heating up, Turkish President Erdogan has decided he wants to make a play for the position, nominating Feridun Sinirlioglu, a longtime loyalist and yes-man, for the position. Endy Zemenides, Tyler Stapleton, Ian Lesser, and Michael Rubin join Thanos Davelis this week as we dig into the US midterm results, break down what they mean for Hellenic issues, and look at the race for UN Secretary General that’s heating up.A little more info on our guests:Endy Zemenides is HALC’s Executive Director.Tyler Stapleton is senior director of government relations at FDD Action.Ian Lesser is a Distinguished Fellow and Advisor to the President at the German Marshall Fund.Michael Rubin is the director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum.  

“Geography cannot be rewritten … and sovereign rights cannot be erased by drawing arbitrary lines on a map.” Those were Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis words at the UN Security Council this week, as he held up a map showing Turkey and Libya’s “illegal” and “arbitrary” maritime deal.This agreement is back in the headlines these days after Libya’s House of Representatives dropped its longstanding opposition to the deal and ratified it on October 20th. The international response was swift, with Greece, the EU, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, Bahrain, and the UAE all condemning it. Even the State Department, which originally offered a weak and ambiguous response, altered its stance and reaffirmed its original 2019 position that the deal was “unhelpful” and “provocative.”While diplomatic pressure is unlikely to force Turkey to the table, Greece is making moves as reports indicate it is preparing to sit down with Egypt to discuss extending their Exclusive Economic Zone eastwards towards Cyprus. This is potentially another blow to Turkey’s Blue Homeland, as Ankara was hoping to entice Egypt into signing a separate maritime boundary agreement at the expense of Greece and Cyprus.These developments are taking place as the US is distracted by Iran, by the upcoming midterms, and by the war in Ukraine. President Trump’s moves this month, especially vis-a-vis Ukraine and Russia, turned many heads in Washington and in Europe, and his decision to exempt Russia from new sanctions passed by Congress and cut a deal to purchase Russian diesel left many wondering what this means for American energy policy, and whether the US can lead through a transactional foreign policy.John Psaropoulos, Amberin Zaman, and Max Bergmann join me this week as we break down all of these issues.A little more info on our guests:John Psaropoulos is an independent journalist, Al Jazeera’s correspondent in southeast Europe, and publisher of Hellenica on Substack.Amberin Zaman is Al-Monitor's chief correspondent who covers major stories on the Middle East and North Africa.Max Bergmann is the director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and the Stuart Center in Euro-Atlantic and Northern European Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.You can support The Greek Current by joining HALC as a member here. 

A weekend of widespread protests and riots in France has put the spotlight on the many challenges facing the country, from political paralysis to a looming debt crisis. Some pundits and observers are even asking if France, the Eurozone’s second largest economy, is the new Greece of Europe, an ode to Greece’s debt crisis in the 2010s. While this comparison misses the mark in many ways, Europe is on alert as France’s debt costs hit 25-year highs recently. Throw in social unrest, a 2027 presidential race with far-right and far-left candidates leading in the polls, and a tense geopolitical environment, and it’s no secret why anxiety is building in Europe’s capitals - including Athens - as it seems what happens in France doesn’t necessarily stay in France.For Europe, this has become an autumn of protest, as the continent’s youth took to the streets in France, Italy, Albania, Spain and Portugal demanding a response to the cost of living crisis, investments in education, solutions on housing, and plans to tackle unemployment. As Europe’s youth look for answers to these problems, they are also increasingly up against the continent’s demographics. In an ageing continent, where the youth vote is shrinking, is the political will there to address their concerns?Steven Erlanger, Yannis Palaiologos, and Tim Vlandas join Thanos Davelis this week as we look at the unrest in France, the protests in Europe, and break down whether France is turning into the new Greece.A little more info on our guests:Steven Erlangler is the chief diplomatic correspondent for The New York Times covering Europe.Yannis Palaiologos is a journalist at large with Kathimerini and Inside StoryTim Vlandas is a Professor of Comparative Political Economy and Social Policy at Oxford.You can support The Greek Current by joining HALC as a member here.

This week we’re turning our attention to the Horn of Africa, where a long-simmering conflict in Ethiopia recently exploded into open war. The situation is grim, but it’s not limited to Africa’s second most populous nation. Eritrea has been pulled into the conflict, Sudan’s civil war is right next door, and on the other side of the Red Sea the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen continue to strike the Saudis.Making an already complicated situation even worse, a number of regional powers, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, and Israel are all vying for influence in the region, linking the Horn of Africa with the wider Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. We’ve already seen rivalries between these countries manifest in proxy struggles.One rivalry to watch is between Israel and Turkey. We’ve seen Turkey invest heavily in the region, especially in Somalia, where Turkey has deployed F-16s and advanced drones, and trains Somali troops at Camp TUKRSOM, its largest overseas military base. Meanwhile, Somaliland – which broke away from Somalia and is only recognised by Israel – is urgently seeking Israeli military support.Turkey’s actions aren’t limited to Somalia. Turkey’s rapid expansion in Africa is part of a highly calculated, decades-long multi-pronged approach that has seen it strike up bilateral relationships with scores of African states with deals ranging from educational programs to natural resources, military assistance, and arms sales.As the Horn of Africa draws in regional powers, the question that arises is what does this mean for Greece? So far, Greece has stationed Patriot missiles in Saudi Arabia, defending it against threats that include the Houthis, and is playing an active role in the Red Sea through the EU’s naval mission ASPIDES to protect international shipping. Given how developments in the region are increasingly part of a wider arc of conflict spanning from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Horn of Africa, this is a region Greece can not afford to ignore.Ambassador Michelle Gavin, Sinan Ciddi, and Professor Asteris Huliaras join Thanos Davelis this week as we look at the conflicts in the Horn of Africa, and break down why they matter for Greece.A little more info on our guests:Ambassador Michelle Gavin is the Ralph Bunche senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow at FDD and director of its Turkey program.Asteris Huliaras is a professor of comparative politics and international relations at the University of the Peloponnese where he holds a Jean Monnet Chair on EU Relations with Less Developed Countries.You can support The Greek Current by joining HALC as a member here. 

Athens was buzzing this week as Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Greece. His speech with the Acropolis in the background made headlines around the world, and his emphasis on Greece’s role as “a source of stability in an unstable world" and a “model ally” did not go unnoticed. Beyond Rubio’s comments, his visit coincided with the 6th US-Greece Strategic Dialogue, reflecting the excellent level of relations between the two countries and their commitment to deepening their already close ties and promoting regional stability. As discussions unfolded, defense and energy took center stage. On security and defense, highlights included a $4 billion agreement for advanced US military equipment, establishing links between the Greek armed forces and the Florida National Guard, and expanding law enforcement and counterterrorism cooperation. On energy, the Vertical Gas Corridor and the Great Sea Interconnector, particularly the latter, dominated the news cycle. In an interview with Kathimerini, Secretary Rubio stated that the GSI, which is set to link the electricity grids of Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, and which Turkey is keen to disrupt, was an “important priority” for the US.Rubio also addressed important questions related to Turkey, stating that he believed a Greek-Turkish crisis would be “unimaginable” and something the US could “never allow to happen.” He also made it clear that any sale of F-35s to Turkey was off the table until the strict conditions laid out under US law are met.Turkey’s behavior is a particular concern for countries in the region and Turkey observers, as President Erdogan adopts an increasingly revisionist posture across the Eastern Mediterranean, from Syria and the Horn of Africa to the Aegean.Elena Lazarou, Endy Zemenides, Vassilis Nedos, Sinan Ciddi, and Tyler Stapleton join Thanos Davelis this week as we dig into the Rubio visit and the challenge Turkey poses to the region.A little more info on our guests:Elena Lazarou is the Director General of ELIAMEP.Endy Zemenides is the Executive Director of the Hellenic American Leadership CouncilVassilis Nedos is Kathimerini’s diplomatic and defense editor.Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow at FDD and director of its Turkey program.Tyler Stapleton is the senior director of government relations at FDD Action.You can support The Greek Current by joining HALC as a member here. 

On August 4, a drone struck the wing of a Ukrainian aircraft at Germany’s Leipzig Airport and fell onto the tarmac. It failed to explode. Two more drones were also found nearby over the next few days. All the evidence has pointed to Russia as the main culprit, with German officials highlighting how the Leipzig airport attack followed a “well-established pattern of Russian hybrid operations in Europe.” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, also said the alliance "stands in full solidarity with Germany", adding that “The evidence is clear.”This incident has put a renewed focus on Russia’s escalating hybrid campaign against Europe, and raises questions about how policymakers across the continent can and should respond.While Russia targets Europe, we’ve seen a number of far-right parties - that seem to share President Vladimir Putin’s “anti-woke” views and have called for curtailing military and financial aid to Ukraine and rapprochement with Russia - make gains in key countries like Germany and France. As these parties gain momentum, what will this mean for Europe’s Russia policy?The upsurge in support for far right parties in Europe’s key states is also raising concerns in Greece, which is preparing for national elections in the spring. Could it happen here as well? While the far-right is fragmented, previous election results suggest there is an electoral base. The release of Ilias Kasidiaris from prison, a former leading figure of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, and his announcement that he intends to re-enter politics, is also adding a new dimension to the debate about the prospects of a far-right revival.Alexander Gabuev, Dimitar Bechev, and Lamprini Rori join Thanos Davelis this week as we take a closer look at these developments. A little more info on our guests:Alexander Gabuev is the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.Dimitar Bechev is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and director of the Dahrendorf Programme on Europe in a Changing World at the European Studies Centre of the University of Oxford's St Antony's College.Lambrini Rori is an Associate Professor in Political Analysis at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens. 

At the height of the last decade’s financial crisis, Greece was not only struggling to keep capital in the country, but its borrowing cost was also sky high. Today, Greece is wooing the world’s leading hedge funds with a new tax regime designed to lure investors to establish substantial operations in Athens, and we’ve already seen it persuade billionaire Chris Rokos and the hedge fund Millennium Management to establish a presence in the country.At the same time, Prime Minister Mitsotakis highlighted Greece's economic success and its progress on the fiscal front this week in meetings on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York, emphasizing that Greece’s borrowing costs are now lower than those of four G7 countries - the US, the UK, France, and Italy. This news comes at a tense time in global markets, as government bond prices fall worldwide, and yields rise accordingly.Moving us to global developments, President Trump used the UNGA as an opportunity to once again lay out a “winner takes all” vision of US power, while sealing a deal over Greenland that potentially removes one of the biggest thorns in the transatlantic relationship. As the US and its allies look to put the Greenland issue behind them, a great deal of uncertainty remains between Washington and its NATO partners, and this was on full display recently as EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for Canada and the EU to move beyond their existing free trade agreement and create an “Alliance for the Future.”Charles Kupchan, Eleni Varvitsioti, and Dimitris Vayanos join Thanos Davelis this week as we take a closer look at all of these developments. A little more info on our guests:Charles Kupchan is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University in the Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government.Eleni Varvitsioti is the Financial Times correspondent for Greece and Cyprus.Dimitris Vayanos is a Professor of Finance at the London School of Economics, co-editor of the book "Beyond Austerity: Reforming the Greek Economy”, and member of the Pissarides Commission which developed a growth plan for Greece in 2020.You can support The Greek Current by joining HALC as a member here. 

This week we’re traveling around the region, moving from the Red Sea to the Balkans.While the Iran war has disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s attention shifted to another major global chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea this past week, the Bab-el Mandeb Strait, as Iran-backed Houthi rebels tighten their grip over this strategic maritime route and threaten Saudi Arabia's oil exports.With the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el Mandeb Strait under threat, the world is bracing for a potential squeeze on oil prices, while the US appears to be sitting this one out, so far declining to intervene on Saudi Arabia’s behalf.The Houthi attacks are also the first test for the new Mecca Agreement, the defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. While all eyes are on the Red Sea, tensions have been quietly brewing in the Aegean, where Turkey is once again  ramping up its provocations. We’ve seen Turkey engage in new airspace violations, provoke with the announcement of controversial marine parks, slam Greece’s recent defense deal with Israel as an attempt to “encircle” Turkey, and this week Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan absurdly called Greece’s defense of its Aegean islands a “threat”.Looking to Greece’s north, the Western Balkans are coming under the spotlight again after Serbia’s President Alexandar Vucic, who has been in power as president or prime minister for 12 years, dissolved parliament and called for snap elections in October. Serbia has been rocked by student-led protests and political turmoil over the last two years, and demands for accountability and change are widespread. This is also raising questions about the EU’s commitment to fully integrate the Western Balkans, an effort that has lost momentum over the past years. Could this be an opportunity to use its leverage to promote reform and the resolution of bilateral issues? Some experts think it may be.Aaron David Miller, Constantinos Filis, and James Ker-Lindsay join Thanos Davelis this week as we look into all of these developments, exploring what they mean for Greece and the wider region.A little more info on our guests:Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and expert on the Middle East.Constantinos Filis is an associate professor at the American College of Greece and director of its Institute of Global Affairs.Professor James Ker-Lindsay is an expert on the EU, the Balkans, and Southeast Europe.You can support The Greek Current by joining HALC as a member here.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis stepped up to the podium at the Thessaloniki International Fair last Saturday to lay out his government’s economic agenda for the upcoming year in a speech that essentially set the stage for national elections in 2027.Aside from presenting a 2.2-billion-euro package for next year, he also laid out a roadmap to 2030 that includes reducing unemployment, raising the average salary and the minimum wage, and maintaining economic growth, all while drawing a clear line in the sand when it comes to the political and geopolitical dilemmas he believes will shape the upcoming election.With Greece gearing up for elections, Europe’s eyes locked in on Germany, where the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, dominated a crucial state election on Sunday, marking the first time since 1949 that a far-right party has won a state election. The result has many wondering if Germany's political center can still isolate the far right, while broader questions are emerging about what this could mean for Europe. Is this a harbinger of further far-right victories on a continent that’s facing a number of challenges ranging from the war in Ukraine to the economy and inflation?Shifting us back to the Eastern Mediterranean, having wrapped up his speech at TIF, Prime Minister Mitsotakis traveled to Egypt, where he met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides, sending a strong message not only about the state of Greek-Egyptian ties, but also about the three countries’ commitment to regional cooperation. The meetings took place against the backdrop of broader regional developments, including the Mecca Agreement between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.Nick Malkoutzis, Yiannis Mouzakis, Dr. Markus Ziener, and Vassilis Nedos join Thanos Davelis on this week’s episode of The Greek Current with insights on all of these developments.A little more info on our guests:Nick Malkoutzis and Yiannis Mouzakis are the co-founders of Macropolis.gr.Dr. Markus Ziener is a professor of journalism and Visiting Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund.Vassilis Nedos is Kathimeirni’s diplomatic and defense editor.You can support The Greek Current by joining HALC as a member here.