Prediction Bros Podcast

Send us Fan MailIn Episode 31, the crew bounces between markets, politics, economics, and geopolitics, with a recurring theme: when should you hold a position versus panic-selling too early?The episode opens with discussion around the eye-popping valuation of SpaceX and whether retail investors are already too late to the party. That leads into a broader conversation about market bubbles, recession risks, and whether current optimism is masking deeper economic vulnerabilities. The hosts then celebrate a pair of Canadian prediction-market wins: Canada's entry into a technical recession and Alberta's referendum-related political drama. The discussion turns into a self-deprecating lesson about selling positions too early versus simply holding and letting the thesis play out. From there, attention shifts to the 2026 U.S. midterms. The team analyzes key Senate races, including Maine and Texas, debates whether Democrats are gaining momentum, and discusses how scandals appear to affect voters differently than they once did. Their "If You Had To" segment focuses on which party will control the Senate after the 2026 elections, with all three leaning Democratic. The conversation then pivots to early positioning for the 2028 presidential race. The hosts debate candidates ranging from Wes Moore and Kamala Harris to long-shot bets and speculative market plays, arguing that much of the value lies in identifying future contenders before the broader market catches on. The final segment dives into the evolving Russia–Ukraine war. The hosts discuss how drone warfare has transformed the battlefield, the depletion of traditional armored forces, the strategic importance of Crimea, and the possibility of a ceasefire before winter. They explore prediction markets tied to negotiations, territorial gains, and the future direction of the conflict. 

Send us Fan MailEpisode 30 of the Poly Marks Podcast dives headfirst back into the Strait of Hormuz crisis, as the boys break down the latest rumors of a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding, whether the ceasefire is actually real, and why prediction markets still seem convinced that global shipping is about to normalize. Andrew explains why nearly half his portfolio is riding on Strait traffic not returning by the end of June, while the crew debates whether the market is dramatically underpricing the logistical, political, and military obstacles still standing in the way.From oil markets and strategic reserves to sanctions relief, IRGC financing, and the razor-thin line between “defensive” and “offensive” strikes, the episode explores how fragile the current standoff really is — and why even a signed agreement may not stop things from spiraling again. The guys also unpack the “permanent peace deal” markets, arguing over legal wording, temporary agreements, and whether Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran are simply too far apart for any lasting settlement to happen this summer.Later, the conversation shifts into 2028 U.S. presidential betting markets, with speculation on Kamala Harris, Thomas Massie, Ron DeSantis, Wes Moore, Tucker Carlson, and why the best political bets might be names nobody’s seriously discussing yet. The crew debates whether prediction markets reward actual forecasting skill — or just timing, volatility, and surviving long enough for the narrative to flip in your favor.The episode closes with NBA Finals chaos, Trump potentially attending games in New York, Israeli leadership markets involving Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett, and another reminder that betting on the future may still be easier than predicting it.

Send us Fan MailEpisode 29 opens with crew breaking down Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping, debating whether he’ll avoid sensitive topics like Iran and Taiwan while trying to land a trade and geopolitical win from a position they argue is weaker than expected. They analyze Polymarket phrase bets, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, China’s growing leverage, and how global energy flows are quietly reshaping the balance of power. From there, the conversation spirals through unresolved Iran tensions, disputed market resolutions involving UAE strikes, Russia-Ukraine ceasefire controversy, and whether the global economy is sleepwalking into a major oil-driven slowdown while stock markets sit near all-time highs. The back half shifts into classic Poly Marks territory: Greenland acquisition theories, Cuba strike odds, AI-generated political campaigns, and Spencer Pratt unexpectedly emerging as a serious LA mayoral dark horse. The guys debate whether populist outsider politics, AI media, and collapsing institutional trust are becoming the defining themes of the decade.

Send us Fan MailEpisode 28 starts with a break down of Elon’s lawsuit against OpenAI and debate whether Sam Altman’s transformation from nonprofit steward to potential multi-billionaire CEO could become one of the biggest tech scandals in AI history. They discuss the odds of Elon winning, OpenAI’s IPO chances collapsing, Anthropic’s growing momentum, and whether the AI sector is quietly entering bubble territory. From there, the conversation pivots back to the Middle East: stalled peace talks, the Strait of Hormuz still functioning under threat, oil volatility, and whether Trump actually wants a long-term deal with Iran — or just a temporary stabilization before the next escalation cycle. The crew debates permanent peace odds, oil hitting $120+, troop deployments, and whether global shipping insurers will ever fully trust the Gulf again. They wrap with bets on Keir Starmer’s political survival, broader market instability, and the recurring Poly Marks theme: nobody really knows what happens next — but the markets are betting anyway. 

Send us Fan MailEp. 27 lands in a quieter—but no less uncertain—moment. With the Iran ceasefire dragging on, the guys question whether anything is actually improving, or if this is just a stalled negotiation dressed up as progress.The key debate centers on a simple market: will the U.S. and Iran meet diplomatically by April 30? Despite odds near 50/50, the group leans firmly no—arguing neither side has incentive to concede, and recent failed signals (like the Strait reopening attempt) only reinforce the deadlock. From there, they pivot to escalation risk. If talks fail, what’s left? A longer-term bet on potential U.S. ground involvement enters the mix—not as a prediction, but as a mispricing opportunity.Andrew highlights one of the pod’s strongest calls: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains far from normal, and markets are quickly repricing any “back to normal” narrative. Even with a ceasefire, structural risk is keeping global flows suppressed. They round things out with quick hits across AI (Anthropic vs OpenAI), crypto resilience, and Canadian politics, before ending on a familiar note: even when you’re right on the story, prediction markets are won or lost on the details.The takeaway: less chaos this week—but no clarity. 

Send us Fan MailEp. 26 opens with a rare mix of victory laps and bruised portfolios. Andrew nails the “US troops entering Iran” market after a dramatic pilot rescue mission inside Iranian territory, while the rest of the board is licking wounds from the surprise ceasefire announcement that nuked their long-held no-ceasefire positions. The ceasefire is technically holding—for now—but with immediate violations, a US blockade around Hormuz, and zero trust between parties, the guys debate whether this is real de-escalation or just a pause with better PR.They pivot back to their favorite indicator: Strait of Hormuz traffic, arguing that even with a ceasefire, mines, insurance risk, and now US enforcement mean shipping flows are nowhere near normal. Andrew doubles down on “no normalization” bets, while Matt zooms out to ask the bigger question—are markets right that this all resolves within months, or are they massively underpricing how messy this could still get?From there, it’s a broader reflection on negotiation dynamics. Is Trump actually cracking something previous administrations couldn’t—forcing ideological enemies to the table through sheer escalation and threat? Or is this just another temporary patch that unravels the second incentives shift? The crew debates whether a “permanent peace” deal is even plausible in the timeline markets suggest, with most leaning skeptical despite improving sentiment.They close on macro confusion: oil markets refusing to behave logically despite massive supply disruptions, and a quick check-in on the AI bubble, where absurd pivots (yes, even shoe companies to data centers) collide with very real constraints like compute and energy shortages. The takeaway: nothing is pricing cleanly, and conviction is getting harder—not easier.

Send us Fan MailThis week on the Poly Marks Podcast, the boys break down Trump’s latest address on Iran and what it signals for the trajectory of the conflict.They explore the growing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz—where Iran is effectively taxing global shipping—and debate whether this represents a temporary disruption or a permanent shift in global power.From ceasefire timelines to boots-on-the-ground probabilities, the episode dives deep into prediction markets, highlighting where the odds may be mispriced and where the real “alpha” lies.They also discuss second-order effects on oil, global supply chains, and crypto, before closing with a look at Canada—where Alberta’s referendum momentum raises questions about sovereignty closer to home.

Send us Fan MailEp. 24 is another full-blown Iran board, with the guys zeroing in on the biggest market-moving development so far: the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively shut, the Gulf is jammed with stranded ships, and the economic fallout is starting to look worse by the day. Andrew runs point on the situation, walking through Iran’s strikes on Qatari LNG infrastructure, the oil spike, trapped vessels, and the ugly reality that even if America wants the strait reopened, mines and fear can keep commerce frozen long after the missiles stop flying.From there, the discussion turns into a live portfolio review. Matt asks the big question: after loading up on long-dated no ceasefire bets and seeing them surge, is it time to peel some off or keep riding? The consensus leans toward staying patient. Nobody sees a clean offramp. Trump may want one, but Iran has no real incentive to fold quickly, and the broader regional dynamics make a quick ceasefire feel more fantasy than base case. The boys also revisit the “US forces entering Iran” angle, with Andrew arguing that if America wants to de-escalate, it may actually need to escalate first — and Kharg Island becomes a major point of discussion as a possible next target and strategic hinge.The back half broadens into macro and markets. They talk through how a prolonged Gulf crisis could hammer the world economy, why oil bets are suddenly live again, and whether the administration has badly underestimated the difficulty of securing maritime flow. Then Joel finally cashes in his teaser from last week and brings up the IPO board: SpaceX, Databricks, Anthropic, and the wider idea that the White House and regulators may be trying to reopen the public-markets spigot while sentiment still holds. They finish with a Rubio check-in, noting that his 2028 odds keep climbing while JD Vance stays weirdly absent, and wonder whether Rubio’s foreign-policy glow-up is a launchpad or a future liability if Iran becomes a long war.

Send us Fan MailEp. 23 is basically a full Iran panic board. The boys open on the Strait of Hormuz becoming the real story of the war: mines in the water, tankers refusing to run the gauntlet, insurance chaos, oil ripping past $100, and the dawning realization that even if America and Israel own the skies, reopening a mined shipping lane is a totally different problem. Andrew lays out the broader picture: Iranian missiles flying at every American-aligned target in the region, Gulf states getting dragged into the mess, and Trump suddenly looking a lot more exposed than he did after the “easy win” in Venezuela.From there, they get into the market angles. Joel and Matt lean hard into the idea that this thing is not ending quickly, which makes the longer-dated no ceasefire bets look attractive. They also talk through why the off-ramp feels murky: Iran can’t just eat the humiliation and move on, Israel has every reason to keep pushing, and Trump may not have thought through how ugly the Strait of Hormuz problem could get. There’s also a side thread on southern Lebanon, where Matt makes the case for fading the market’s confidence in a major Israeli ground offensive before March 31.The back half widens out a bit. They check in on Rubio, whose odds in the Republican race keep rising as JD Vance seems to disappear from view, and they kick around whether Rubio’s foreign-policy profile is a real asset or a liability if Iran turns into a full quagmire. They close by teasing next week’s IPO talk and admitting, once again, that despite their best intentions, Iran has eaten the whole podcast.

Send us Fan MailEp. 22 is an all-Iran victory-lap episode—Joel openly admits nobody’s here for “pure alpha,” but the boys still take a bow because the big catalyst finally hit: U.S. + Israel strikes began late Feb 27 / early Feb 28, and the crew frames it as the moment their Khamenei-out positioning finally paid.They unpack the how-did-they-find-him lore (traffic/morality cameras, possible implants, Mossad “everywhere” narratives) and debate whether those leaks are real penetration vs. deliberate paranoia ops meant to fracture trust inside the regime. From there, they try to map what “endgame” even looks like: Andrew lays out multiple paths—regime limps on + U.S. gets bored, deal/ceasefire on Trump terms, managed transition, or worst-case failed-state tribal fracture—with the group leaning hard toward a long, messy runway rather than a clean off-ramp.The betting focus shifts to what they think is the real money now: longer-dated “NO ceasefire” positions (March/April/May/June), because they argue Iran needs time for bluster, retaliation, leadership confusion, and because boots-on-ground chatter and proxy chaos make a quick resolution feel unlikely. They also spar over ambiguity in “U.S. announces support for Kurds/opposition” markets—lawyerly parsing of “official statements” vs. informal comments, and why whales can weaponize wording.Finally, the pod widens into regional spillover: Israel’s likely Lebanon ground offensive, Gulf-state involvement, and the Strait of Hormuz market—Andrew regrets selling early while Joel considers a technical “NO” angle based on the strict 80%+ 7-day moving-average traffic drop requirement. They wrap by admitting Iran will dominate the show for a while—and joking about the existence of a “lost episode 22” they definitely won’t discuss.