Edward Bonner: Navigating the Cyclical Nature of Commodities – Opportunities in Rare Earths, Copper, and Vanadium

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Edward Bonner to the show. Edward Bonner is Investment Associate, Sprott Asset Management USA, Inc. The discussion centers on the current state of gold and precious metals markets, with Bonner offering insights into the emerging gold bull market and broader commodity trends. Bonner argues that gold remains significantly under-owned, with most portfolios holding less than one percent of gold compared to historical averages of six to seven percent. He believes the current market is in the early stages of a potential bull market, driven by factors such as monetary debasement, fiscal largesse, and central bank buying. The recent geopolitical tensions, including the freezing of Russian assets, have prompted central banks to increase their gold holdings. The conversation explores various indicators for gold's potential, including the M2 money supply and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to gold ratio. Bonner suggests that gold is currently an attractive hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. He sees particular value in gold mining stocks, especially growth producers, developers, and late-stage explorers. When evaluating mining projects, Bonner emphasizes the importance of management teams, jurisdiction, and project metallurgy. He highlights the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the sector, given the significant free cash flow of senior producers. Beyond gold, Bonner discusses other potentially undervalued commodities, including platinum, natural gas, and vanadium. He sees interesting opportunities in geographical regions like the Guyana Shield, parts of the Arabian Nubian Shield, Mexico, and Argentina, while cautioning about the challenges of exploration and jurisdictional risks. The discussion concludes with Bonner's perspective on the cyclical nature of commodities and the importance of maintaining a diversified investment approach. He remains optimistic about the potential for gold and select commodities, suggesting that the current market presents unique investment opportunities for those willing to look beyond conventional wisdom.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Lobo Tiggre to the show. Lobo Tiggre is Author and Founder of the Independent Speculator Founder and CEO of Louis James LLC. The discussion centers on the current state of commodities, with a particular focus on gold, silver, copper, and uranium. Tiggre provides a nuanced perspective on the gold market, highlighting several key factors driving its current rise. He notes central bank buying, portfolio rebalancing, and increasing mainstream interest as significant catalysts. While bullish on gold, he cautions against assuming a straight upward trajectory, emphasizing the potential for corrections. He views gold primarily as financial insurance, recommending investors consider their exposure based on global economic uncertainties. Regarding commodities, Tiggre argues that inflationary trends and global economic transformations are creating a potential super-cycle. He is particularly enthusiastic about copper, citing strong demand from electrification, AI data centers, and significant supply constraints. He expects a multi-year, potentially multi-decade bull market in copper, though he's waiting for strategic entry points. Tiggre also discusses uranium, presenting a bullish case driven by increasing global nuclear energy adoption and constrained supply. He sees a robust market for the next few years, barring a major nuclear incident. His investment approach remains fundamentally value-oriented, seeking opportunities when assets are undervalued. The discussion explores a broader macroeconomic perspective, with Tiggre describing a stagflationary outlook. He points to weakening labor markets and persistent inflation as key indicators, suggesting economic challenges ahead. His investment philosophy emphasizes disciplined speculation, focusing on value propositions and avoiding momentum-driven investments. Throughout the conversation, Tiggre consistently advises investors to maintain perspective, avoid emotional decision-making, and be prepared for market fluctuations. He recommends having a strategic approach to investing, being willing to rotate between sectors, and always maintaining a critical view of market narratives.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Matt Smith to the show. Matt Smith is Co-Author of "The Preparation" & Host of "Doug Casey's Take" Podcast. The conversation centers on the current economic landscape, with a particular focus on gold, monetary policy, and potential global financial reset. Smith discusses the unprecedented rise in gold prices, noting it has topped $4,040 and suggesting this bull market is unique. He believes the United States and China may have an unspoken agreement to use gold as a "liquidity sink" to manage massive economic challenges, particularly the enormous $175 trillion in unfunded liabilities. Smith argues that the current gold price surge is not just about preservation of capital, but potentially wealth creation. He points to historical comparisons, such as housing prices measured in gold terms, which have dramatically shifted over the past decades. Morgan Stanley's recent recommendation of 20% portfolio allocation to gold underscores the metal's growing importance. The discussion explores broader geopolitical and economic trends, including potential monetary resets, the role of critical minerals, and alternative educational paths. Smith is skeptical of traditional higher education, instead advocating for a more experiential learning approach outlined in his book "The Preparation", which he co-authored with Doug Casey. Regarding gold and precious metals, Smith believes we are in the early stages of a significant market transformation. He sees gold as uniquely positioned to serve as a monetary reset mechanism, with potentially dramatic price increases ahead. He suggests the price could reach extraordinary levels, potentially hitting $23,000 per ounce as part of a broader economic recalibration. The conversation touches on various global economic dynamics, including trade wars, critical mineral strategies, and potential geopolitical shifts. Throughout, Smith maintains a pragmatic yet cautious perspective on current economic trends, emphasizing the potential for significant structural changes in the global monetary system.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josh Young to the show. Josh Young is Chief Investment Officer & Founder, Bison Interests. The podcast delves into a comprehensive discussion about the oil and gas markets, commodity cycles, and investment opportunities. Young provides a compelling thesis for oil and natural gas, centered on significant global underinvestment in exploration and production over the past decade. He argues that the current market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, which paradoxically creates an attractive investment opportunity. The fundamental driver of his bullish stance is the persistent 1% annual demand growth for oil, which has remained consistent despite predictions of decline due to electric vehicles and alternative energy. Regarding supply dynamics, Young highlights the dramatic reduction in exploration and capital expenditures in the oil and gas sector. He notes that global oil production investments have dropped from around $900 billion annually to approximately $500 billion, with exploration expenditures becoming a tiny fraction of previous levels. This underinvestment, combined with natural field decline rates, suggests a potential supply crunch in the coming years. Young is equally optimistic about natural gas, citing growing demand from data centers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. He sees potential for significant price appreciation driven by increasing demand and limited new production capacity. In the equity markets, Young finds the most attractive opportunities in small-cap oil producers and, particularly, oil services companies. He emphasizes that surviving services companies are exceptionally well-managed and can be purchased at significant discounts to replacement cost, often with attractive free cash flow yields. Drawing parallels with the precious metals sector, Young sees similar market dynamics emerging in oil and other commodities. He believes the current market setup resembles previous commodity cycles, where intense pessimism precedes substantial price appreciation. To share his insights, Young has launched a newsletter called Bison Insights, where he provides structured investment ideas and analysis in the energy and commodities space.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Greg Orrell to the show. Greg Orrell is President and Portfolio Manager, OCM Gold Fund. In this engaging discussion, Orrell provides deep insights into the current gold market, highlighting the significant price movements and underlying economic factors driving precious metals' performance. Orrell explains that gold's current surge, over 50% this year, is primarily driven by global government debt and currency debasement. He argues that central banks are increasingly viewing gold as a stability anchor, with many countries looking to diversify away from the US dollar. The unprecedented monetary landscape has created a unique environment where gold is seen as a critical financial instrument. As a seasoned investor with 40 years of experience, Orrell describes himself as a long-term value investor focused on gold and silver mining companies. His investment strategy involves carefully selecting mining companies across different stages - from major producers to exploration companies - with a keen eye on management quality, project feasibility, and potential for long-term value creation. Orrell is particularly critical of mining companies that pursue "profitless prosperity" by unnecessarily lowering cut-off grades or extending mine life without creating shareholder value. He emphasizes the importance of margin expansion and maintaining disciplined investment approaches. The discussion also explores the broader economic context, including government debt, potential currency challenges, and the shifting global monetary landscape. Orrell believes we are in a unique monetary cycle driven by declining confidence in traditional currency systems. Regarding investment opportunities, Orrell suggests investors should maintain a 5-10% position in gold and silver assets as a form of monetary insurance. He sees significant potential in gold and silver miners, particularly as central banks and international markets increasingly recognize these metals' strategic importance. The OCM Gold Fund, which Orrell has managed since 1996, focuses exclusively on precious metals equities, providing investors a specialized approach to navigating this complex and potentially lucrative market segment.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Garrett Goggin to the show. Garrett Goggin is CFA, CMT, MBA, GOLD ANALYST, & Founder of The Golden Portfolio. In this in-depth discussion, Goggin provides a comprehensive overview of the current gold market, highlighting significant global financial shifts and unprecedented economic conditions driving gold's value. Goggin argues that the current gold market is fundamentally different from previous cycles, citing massive U.S. debt (now at $37 trillion), foreign central banks moving away from U.S. treasuries, and increasing gold purchases. He believes the gold market has substantial room for growth, noting that average investors currently have less than 1% of their assets invested in gold. The analyst is particularly bullish on gold mining companies, especially developers with undervalued assets. He emphasizes finding opportunities where market valuations significantly lag the intrinsic net asset value (NAV) of mining projects. Goggin's investment strategy focuses on high-grade exploration projects, developers near production, and royalty companies, which he considers the lowest-risk gold investment strategy. Management quality is crucial in Goggin's analysis. He looks for executives who create shareholder value, avoid excessive dilution, and have a track record of building successful mining operations. His portfolio approach involves equal-weighting investments across multiple holdings, allowing winners to naturally grow in portfolio allocation. Regarding market sentiment, Goggin believes the "masses aren't here yet" in the gold market. He anticipates institutional investors will be "drawn kicking and screaming" into gold as traditional assets become overvalued. He's especially interested in the potential silver market, which he sees as currently undervalued relative to gold. Goggin's Golden Portfolio, which includes royalty investments and developer/explorer positions, has reportedly achieved impressive returns, with his GPIV product up 500% in two years. He remains confident that significant value opportunities exist in the gold mining sector, driven by fundamental economic shifts and undervaluation of quality mining assets.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Tavi Costa to the show. Tavi Costa is Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital. Costa shares a compelling personal journey from Brazil, where experiencing hyperinflation shaped his financial perspective, to becoming a tennis player and eventually a finance professional. His background in macro analysis has enabled him to identify significant market turning points, such as predicting China's potential economic challenges and the emerging commodity trends. Costa emphasizes the importance of independent research and developing strong conviction in investment strategies. He discusses the current bullish environment for gold and silver, highlighting a notable chart showing central banks increasingly preferring gold over treasuries. He believes the current gold market has substantial potential, potentially surpassing historical performance due to unprecedented economic conditions. Regarding silver, Costa presents an intriguing 45-year cup and handle technical pattern, suggesting the potential for silver prices to reach triple digits. He argues that limited silver exploration assets and increasing demand from various sectors could drive significant price appreciation. Moreover, he sees tremendous opportunity in mining companies, noting their impressive profit margins and potential for institutional attraction. Costa is also becoming bullish on energy, presenting a contrarian view based on declining oil inventories, reduced drilling activities, and potential increased energy consumption from technological developments like AI. He sees the energy sector as an undervalued asset class with significant medium-term potential. At Crescat Capital, Costa focuses on early-stage exploration companies, employing a venture capital approach in the mining space. He believes in actively helping management improve capital allocation and exploration strategies. His investment philosophy centers on identifying intrinsic value in companies before market recognition, with a particular focus on metals and resources. Throughout the discussion, Costa emphasizes flexibility in investment thinking, the importance of independent research, and the potential for significant shifts in market perception toward traditionally underappreciated sectors like mining and energy.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Shawn Khunkhun to the show. Shawn Khunkhun is CEO, President, & Director, Dolly Varden Silver Corp. In this podcast, Khunkhun provides an in-depth analysis of the silver market, highlighting its unique position as both a monetary and industrial metal. With a background rooted in mining and precious metals, Khunkhun is deeply bullish on silver, believing the current market conditions are exceptionally favorable. Khunkhun emphasizes that silver is experiencing a significant supply deficit, consuming 200-250 million ounces more annually than current production and recycling can provide. He argues that silver is critically important in the emerging green economy, being essential for solar panels, electric vehicles, and various industrial applications. Historically, silver has maintained a 10-15:1 ratio with gold, which aligns with its natural abundance in the earth's crust. The discussion reveals that silver is currently trading well below its inflation-adjusted historical highs, suggesting substantial potential for price appreciation. Khunkhun predicts silver could breakthrough $50 and potentially reach $75 or even $150 when accounting for inflation. He points to increasing monetary demand, central bank interest, and growing investor awareness as key drivers for silver's potential surge. Regarding investment strategies, Khunkhun recommends various approaches for exposure to silver, including physical bullion, royalty companies like Wheaton Precious Metals, silver-focused ETFs, and primary silver mining companies. He highlights the limited number of primary silver producers and the challenges of developing new mining projects. Khunkhun is particularly optimistic about silver's long-term prospects, citing fundamental supply constraints, increasing industrial demand, and its role as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. He believes the current market represents a unique opportunity for investors to gain exposure to a historically undervalued asset with significant potential for growth.

Stijn Scmidt welcomes Adrian Day to the show. Adrian Day is CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management & Manager of EuroPacific Gold Fund. In this comprehensive discussion, Day provides insights into the current precious metals market, highlighting several key trends and investment opportunities. Day argues that the fundamental reasons for gold investment remain strong, particularly from central banks and wealthy individuals concerned about fiscal instability. Central banks continue to diversify away from dollar assets, with dollar holdings in foreign reserves dropping from 75% to around 47.5% in recent years. This trend, coupled with geopolitical tensions and concerns about dollar weaponization, suggests continued gold purchasing. Regarding market dynamics, Day notes that generalist investors are beginning to show increased interest in gold. Recent data shows significant inflows into gold-related ETFs, with $3.3 billion entering the GLD in just one month. He believes the current economic environment - characterized by potential interest rate cuts, stubborn inflation, and a weakening dollar - creates an ideal scenario for gold investment. Day sees significant potential in gold mining stocks, arguing that despite recent price increases, valuations remain attractive. He highlights opportunities in both large-cap producers like Barrick and intermediate-sized companies like Equinox and B2. For silver, he suggests the market remains promising, with potential for meaningful price increases due to unique supply and demand characteristics. In the exploration and junior mining sector, Day sees substantial untapped potential. Many companies remain undervalued, and he believes the broader sector has yet to experience a significant uplift. He emphasizes the importance of patience and quality management when investing in exploration companies. Regarding other metals, Day expresses particular enthusiasm for silver and maintains a neutral stance on oil, preferring to focus on gold, silver, copper, and uranium. His investment approach remains globally diversified, sector-agnostic, and focused on understanding the fundamental value of potential investments.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Michael Gentile to the show. Michael Gentile is Strategic Investor & Co-Founder, Bastion Asset Management. With a background in finance and commodities, Gentile has developed a unique investment approach in the junior mining sector, combining value investing principles with a contrarian perspective. Gentile's investment strategy is rooted in identifying inefficient market opportunities, particularly in junior resource stocks. He focuses on companies with potential to become mines, looking for key attributes such as grade, scale, infrastructure, and management ownership. His approach involves making initial small investments (around 1% of capital) in companies with promising geological prospects, with the potential to increase stakes as companies demonstrate successful execution. The investor sees the current commodity cycle, particularly in gold, as being in its early stages. He believes we are entering a period of monetary devaluation, drawing parallels to the 1970s economic environment. Gentile argues that the unprecedented levels of government debt and the challenges of managing interest rates create a favorable backdrop for gold and other hard assets. His due diligence process is comprehensive, examining factors like drilling efficiency, management ownership, and jurisdictional risks. Unlike many investors, he prefers 100% ownership of projects and is cautious about joint ventures or royalty companies. Gentile looks for companies with the potential to become significant producers, focusing on the valuation and future potential of investments. Gentile's investment philosophy emphasizes long-term thinking, often holding investments for 3-10 years and looking for opportunities where he can potentially make 20-50 times his initial investment. He is currently most bullish on gold, with secondary interest in copper and a watchful eye on oil. As part of his commitment to sharing knowledge, Gentile is planning a European road show in October, bringing six of his key mining investments to meet potential investors across five cities, offering insights into his investment approach and the junior mining sector.