What is the ‘green squeeze’ and how can it be mitigated?

The fatal stabbing of three young girls in Southport by 17-year-old Axel Rudakubana back in July ignited riots which have swept across the UK and made global headlines.What followed from the tragedy was a racist, Islamophobic and anti-migrant campaign fuelled by misinformation and disinformation, which spilled into the streets with targeted attacks on mosques and ethnic minorities.This senseless violence again cast a spotlight on systemic issues of racism and inequality, and highlighted the potentially deadly consequences of our collective failure to tackle false information online, as well as the demonisation of migrants.This episode dissects these problems, asking what the recent riots reveal about the rise of the far right in the UK and elsewhere, and how to counter alarmist rhetoric on migration. Our guests discuss how we can move forward towards a place of greater solidarity, understanding and trust.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODIAfua Hirsch, JournalistFizza Qureshi, CEO, Migrants’ Rights NetworkMarvin Rees, Visiting Senior Fellow, ODI and former Mayor of BristolKathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou, Director, Politics and Governance programme, ODIRelated resourcesMigration and Displacement Hub (ODI)Migration decision-making: beyond political rhetoric and guesswork (Event, ODI)As UK public attitudes toward migration are increasingly positive, it’s time for more balanced and evidence-based narratives (Blog, ODI)Public narratives and attitudes towards refugees and other migrants: UK country profile (Briefing, ODI)Public and political narratives and attitudes towards refugees and other migrants: implications for action (Project, ODI)Hearts and minds: How Europeans think and feel about immigration (Data visualisation, ODI)Why many policies to lower migration actually increase it (Blog, The Conversation)Humanitarian hypocrisy, double standards and the law in Gaza (Blog, ODI)Navigating narratives in Ukraine: humanitarian response amid solidarity and resistance (Blog, ODI)How to tackle mis/disinformation with a human centred approach (Blog, ODI)10 things to know about misinformation and disinformation (Briefing, ODI)

This episode examines the challenges leaders at the forefront of tackling today’s multiple crises are facing, and the leadership skills and approaches desperately needed to navigate these uncertain times.We are teaming up with Tandem for this episode – ODI's Global Executive Leadership Programme. Tandem is building a community of humanitarian and development leaders around the world, equipping them with the skills and connections to address today’s most pressing global challenges and build a brighter future for all.Fresh from graduating from the Tandem programme, two inspirational leaders join our host Sara Pantuliano to reflect on the unique challenges facing humanitarian leaders today – at a time when political instability, conflicts, geopolitical tensions and climate crisis are all creating increasingly complex operating environments.We hear about what their experiences with Tandem over the past nine months have taught them, and how these are reshaping their own approach to leading in crisis settings.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODISasha Kapadia, Director of Global Advisory, ODIGaurav Ray, Head of the Bangladesh Office, German Red CrossLisa Jean, Iraq Country Director, Mines Advisory Group Related resourcesTandem Leadership LinkedIn pageTandem websiteLeading through crisis: what works and what doesn’t (event video/podcast)Better leadership, better world: introducing Tandem (ODI blog)Humanitarian leadership: learning from the past and directions for the future (Tandem/ODI paper)Refugee leadership – how do we move from talk to action? (Think Change podcast)

To mark World Humanitarian Day, this episode examines how the rules of war have changed in our increasingly polarised world and asks how we can better protect the delivery of life-saving humanitarian assistance.World Humanitarian Day recognises and raises awareness of the courageous work of humanitarians around the world. It was established by the UN to commemorate the anniversary of a bomb attack on UN headquarters in Baghdad on 19 August 2003, which killed 22 humanitarian workers including the UN’s chief humanitarian in Iraq Sergio Vieira de Mello.Last year was the deadliest on record for humanitarian workers, and 2024 could be even worse. The past few months have seen egregious attacks against aid workers in Gaza and in lesser reported conflicts, including in Sudan and South Sudan. International Humanitarian Law – designed to protect aid workers and civilians – has been repeatedly flouted.This episode puts these crises under the spotlight. We reflect on what these worrying trends reveal about the humanitarian aid system and the evolution of armed conflict today, as well as state of our global rules-based order.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODISorcha O’Callaghan, Director of the Humanitarian Policy Group, ODIAbby Stoddard, Partner, Humanitarian OutcomesOla Mohammed, Gaza Programme Manager, Muslim AidRelated resourcesHumanitarians in the line of fire: when acting for humanity proves deadlyThe meeting of humanitarian and civic space in Sudan: lessons for localisationEvent recap: Sounding the alarm on Sudan’s hunger crisisWhatever happens now, South–South solidarity with Gaza has already exposed the WestGaza: a litmus test for the humanitarian sector’s commitment to decolonisation?Humanitarian hypocrisy, double standards and the law in Gaza

We are taking a break from our regular schedule this month to look back on some of the most popular episodes released since Think Change first aired back in March 2022.This episode revisits a conversation we released last year, and the halfway point of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals deadline to end poverty and reduce inequalities.We asked what poverty really means today, and if old notions of ending poverty simply by increasing individual income above an arbitrary line are even useful anymore.This year we have looked closely at trends across a range of issues – both globally and by region – which has revealed just how much effort is needed if we want to meet these targets by 2030, with no one left behind.With the so-called ‘polycrisis’ pushing more people into poverty, and the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform’s global poverty estimates at 712 million people living below the $2.15 per day poverty line, we asked our guests how we define and fight poverty today.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODIRathin Roy, Visiting Senior Fellow and former Managing Director, ODIYamini Aiyar, President and Chief Executive, Centre for Policy ResearchRicardo Fuentes-Nieva, Chief Economist for DataPop Alliance and former Director of the Equity and Social Policy Programme, ODI

This episode revisits some of our favourite conversations since the first Think Change podcast aired back in March 2022.Since that time we have released over 50 episodes and been lucky to host some brilliant guests, who have shared their analysis and stories with us on a range of critical global issues – from MDB reform and the debt crisis in the Global South to the future of the Africa-China relationship and the latest concerning developments in Gaza.The themes examined across all episodes are incredibly diverse, but they share a focus on reimagining a new vision for international cooperation in our polarised world – and a hope for building a more equal, peaceful and resilient planet.Browse and listen back to all episodes of the Think Change podcast.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODIAchim Steiner, UNDP AdministratorIan Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia GroupKathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou, Director, Politics and Governance programmeAlexis Akwagyiram, Managing Editor, Semafor AfricaMavis Owusu-Gyamfi, Executive Vice President, African Center for Economic TransformationArancha González, Dean of the Paris School of International AffairsLinda Calabrese, Research Fellow, ODIYunnan Chen, Research Fellow, ODIRonak Gopaldas, Director, Signal RiskAlex de Waal, Executive Director, World Peace FoundationRelated resourcesODI in conversation with Achim SteinerThink Change episode 22: On borrowed time? The sovereign debt crisis in the Global SouthThink Change episode 25: Africa-China – where is the relationship heading?Think Change episode 37: what trends will shape 2024? Part 1Think Change episode 38: what trends will shape 2024? Part 2Think Change episode 31: what do borrowing countries think of MDB reform?Think Change episode 40: will the ICJ ruling change anything for Gaza?

The impacts of the climate crisis are widely known and have rightfully spurred international action, but the hastening collapse of global biodiversity receives far less attention.Biodiversity is the life support system of our planet. We also depend on intact ecosystems for our food and water supplies, medical advances and disease prevention, climate stability, shelter and so much more.In financial terms, a staggering 55% of global GDP depends on high-functioning biodiversity.But nearly all species on earth are currently undergoing population declines, at speeds far quicker than scientists would expect.Reversing the decline of nature depends on international cooperation. The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework represents a watershed moment for multilateral governance and action to conserve biodiversity and restore ecosystems. One of the goals of the framework is to "invest and collaborate", but currently, the biodiversity finance gap stands at $700 billion a year.So what can be done to mobilise resources to ensure the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity? Experts examine ways forward and reflect on what must be done to reduce the harmful incentives that fuel biodiversity loss.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODILaetitia Pettinotti, Research Fellow, ODIAnaid Velasco, Environmental Lawyer and Mexico Director, Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the CaribbeanJeremy Eppel, Co-Founder, Eppel Sustainability and Senior Adviser, Nature FinanceRelated resourcesA fair share of biodiversity finance: apportioning responsibility for the $20 billion target by 2025Biodiversity finance in MexicoBiodiversity finance in NepalBiodiversity finance in NamibiaWhat do we have to lose? Understanding and responding to climate-induced loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services

The recent European elections came at a pivotal time for Europe and its relations with the rest of the world. In the continent, the economic squeeze, along with the public’s concern around security and migration, drove the outcome of the elections. Across the world, the rise in protectionist and nationalist ideology threatens the future of the multilateral system. At risk is the global commitment to the climate crisis and human rights.  The Brussels policy debate is highly Eurocentric, but has extraterritorial impact, often with unanticipated consequences, across the globe. There is an urgent need for European Institutions and Member States to navigate these challenges effectively, to shape a European response. In this episode of the Think Change podcast we discuss the outcome of the European elections and how this will influence the EU’s foreign policy; the future of the multilateral system; and how dialogue and more equal partnerships with the rest of the world is essential to maintain Europe’s standing in the world. Guests:Sara Pantuliano, Chief Executive, ODIAmbassador João Vale de Almeida, previously Ambassador of the European Union to the United Nations; Ambassador of the European Union to the United States; and following Brexit, the first head of the future EU delegation to the UK.Professor Carlos Lopes, Honorary Professor at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance Faculty of Commerce at the University of Cape TownSuzanne Lynch, journalist and author of POLITICO’s Global PlaybookRelated resources: Where next for feminist foreign policy on funding feminist movements?Supporting Ukraine is costly – but Europe should be clear on the risks of letting Russia winCan the Displaced Talent for Europe pilot address green skills shortages in Europe?Can ‘the West’ be trusted? The future of European humanitarian aidReflection on what’s next for EU policy on migration and developmentWhatever happens now, South–South solidarity with Gaza has already exposed the West

Small island developing states (SIDS) suffer disproportionately from external shocks. They face an existential threat from the climate emergency, while global economic uncertainty and geopolitical shifts have derailed recent progress that SIDS have made towards achieving growth and resilience.That’s why governments of SIDS and their international partners met in Antigua and Barbuda a fortnight ago for the SIDS4 conference, which aimed to formulate a 10-year action plan intended to chart ‘the course toward resilient prosperity’ for small island nations.In this episode, guests review this seminal conference, setting it in context of the unique challenges that SIDS face. We hear about the strengths of the Antigua and Barbuda Plan (ABAS) that emerged from it and what is missing from this framework. Guests outline reforms that are urgently needed to drive meaningful change for SIDS.GuestsSara Pantuliano, Chief Executive, ODIAmbassador Walton Webson, Permanent Representative of Antigua and Barbuda to the UNEmily Wilkinson, Senior Research Fellow, ODIJean-Paul Adam, Director for Technology, Climate Change and Natural Resources Management in the UN Economic Commission for AfricaRelated resourcesResilient and Sustainable Islands Initiative (RESI)Small Islands Big Picture podcast: Will the 4th UN International Conference on SIDS generate ‘resilient prosperity’?Small Islands Big Picture podcast (all episodes)The SIDS Future Forum 2024: Shaping the future of Small Island Developing StatesPreparatory meetings for the Fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States: participation, priorities and outcomesFinancing resilient prosperity in SIDSWhy small islands need their own Marshall Plan

Time is running out to keep the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement within reach. Wealthy countries have introduced new industrial and green trade policy measures, but there are concerns that some of these are having adverse effects – hitting countries that have contributed the least to the climate crisis the hardest.This episode examines the concept of the ‘green squeeze’ – the notion that climate-related trade policies are negatively impacting low-income countries, unfairly putting the burden of adjustment on them. We ask what the ‘green squeeze’ means, both at a broader policy level and on the ground for producers having to adapt to these new trade measures.What can be done to help exporting countries navigate such measures? Would the Villars Framework enable a more equitable way forward?At a time when geopolitical tensions are running high and countries are fighting for leadership on green technology, guests discuss what action is needed to drive fair and sustainable progress on green trade.GuestsSara Pantuliano, Chief Executive, ODIFaizel Ismail, Director of the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape TownJan Yves Remy, Director of the Shridath Ramphal Centre for International Trade Law, Policy and Services (the SRC), University of the West IndiesJodie Keane, Senior Research Fellow, ODIRelated resourcesNew EU trade rules could put poor countries in a billion dollar ‘green squeeze’ (ODI blog)The ‘green squeeze’: an explainer (ODI paper)Navigating green trade measures: avoiding a “green squeeze” (ODI event video)Leading experts gather at ODI to reimagine global trade for a sustainable future (ODI statement)COP28 side event | Enabling a “green seize” of new trade opportunities for LDCs: learning from the Covid-19 response to address the climate emergency (ODI event video)Avoiding a “green squeeze” and advancing new trade opportunities for LDCs (ODI event video)Africa’s green trade opportunities: policy insights for aligning trade and climate action (ODI blog and event video)Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms: clarity needed on support for adjustment (ODI blog)Air Miles 2.0? How to ensure Africa is not penalised by net-zero policy spillovers (ODI blog)

The Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace was signed last year at COP28 in Dubai. This recognised the unique challenge of addressing the climate emergency in areas affected by conflict and fragility, and called for “bolder, collective action” to support them.But what does this look like in practice?Despite being among the most vulnerable to climate change, conflict-affected countries receive just a fraction of the climate finance that is allocated to more stable regions.As we build up to the UN Summit for the Future and COP29, this episode examines what can be done to address this critical conflict blind spot in climate action.Guests assess the security impacts of the climate crisis, and the urgent need to scale up funding and support where it is most needed to avoid deepening instability.GuestsSara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODIHanna Serwaa Tetteh, UN Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for the Horn of AfricaKatarina Kertysova, Climate Security Officer, NATORosita Najmi, Co-Founder, CIFAR and ODI Board MemberResourcesCOP28 Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and PeaceClimate Innovations for Adaptation and Resilience (CIFAR) AllianceCall to Action: Responsible Digital Payments to Accelerate Climate Action (Better Than Cash Alliance)Bolstering Women’s Climate Resilience and Adaptation through Financial Services (CGAP)Climate Landscape Series (BFA Global)COP28 finally shines a spotlight on conflict-affected countries (ODI blog)Building Forward Better: a pathway to climate-resilient development in fragile and conflict-affected situations (ODI report)Climate adaptation in no-man's land: research bridging the conflict-climate gap (ODI report)What the case of Somalia can show us about financing climate action in conflict-affected countries (ODI blog)A New Agenda For Peace (UN brief)