Nomura – The Week Ahead

As markets slump post US midterms, we consider exposures and policy responses to the AI unwind and ongoing geopolitical challenges. After the midterm equity market tumult, US labour market data was rock solid; but how concerned should we be about the unwind of the AI theme? In Europe we look at recent central bank decisions in the UK, Norway and Sweden. We examine how competition for capital and the AI theme will impact Asian economies and policy responses. Chapters: US: 02:28, Europe: 09:58, Asia: 17:05.

We deep-dive into the imminent US midterm elections and preview key data and events next week. In the US, we're joined by a special guest. We also recap the FOMC meeting and preview the coming Payrolls report. Across Europe, we review the ECB policy meeting and preview the Bank of England meeting, with a rate hike widely expected. For Asia, we examine the BOJ decision this week, inflation data across the region, and expected rate hikes in Australia and Malaysia. Chapters: Mid-terms Special: 02:01, Americas: 13:58, Europe: 18:27, Japan: 22:42, Rest of Asia: 27:06

We preview several central bank decisions, and our special guest CW Chung, our Joint Head of APAC Equity Research, explains his constructive views on AI. We preview several central bank decisions, and our special guest CW Chung, our Joint Head of APAC Equity Research, explains his constructive views on AI. We preview decisions from the Fed, BoC, ECB, BOJ, RBNZ and BOT. We also have the UK budget on tap and provide an update on the situation in France. CW Chung, our Joint Head of APAC Equity Research, explains why he remains constructive on the tech sector amid recent AI market concerns. Chapters: US: 09:24, Europe: 14:29, Japan 20:44, Rest of Asia: 23:52

Amid sticky US inflation and AI unwind concerns, we assess the Fed outlook, alongside UK resilience and the outlook for China. In the US, hotter-than-expected inflation data are is unlikely to force a Fed hike in October, while AI wobbles shouldn't impact the broader economy for now. In Europe, UK inflation and jobs data are is in focus, alongside a French fiscal vote. In Asia, we look at China's Q3 GDP data release and discuss the latest developments regarding EU-China trade policy. Chapters: US: 02:59; EMEA: 08:59; China: 14:34; Rest of Asia: 21:47

At our Nomura Research Forum in Bangkok, Fitch's Thomas Rookmaaker and Erich Arispe, heads of Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe sovereigns, respectively, discuss EM credit ratings which are facing multiple shocks.

Japan's working-age population isn't just aging anymore, its shrinking. But here's the paradox: fewer workers, rising productivity, rising GDP per capita and inflation. If you cannot fix the labor shortages, what do you do instead?

We take a deep-dive into French bond market turmoil, while tracking other risks and key events ahead. In Europe, we examine French and peripheral bond markets with special guest Marine Mazet. In the US, we preview coming inflation and growth data, and discuss the Fed outlook.  Across Asia, we cover the RBI's rate hike decision this week, inflation in China and expected policy tightening in Singapore. Chapters: Europe: 2:51; US: 8:44; Asia: 15:55; Australia: 21:52

Amid very volatile rate movements, we examine the impact of economic and political fundamentals on markets. In the US we analyse the latest labour market release, recent inflation data, and less-hawkish Fed-speak. In Europe, we discuss the French fiscal challenges have dominated the European newsflow alongside recent inflation data and how the ECB might react. In Asia we talk about why the RBI's rate hiking cycle may be different this time around, as well as the economy's broader vulnerabilities.

What's priced in? Risk premia vs real policy.  Live from the Nomura London Macro Forum our lead economists discuss with Dr Mann, whether market pricing or consensus outlook is closer to BoE thinking. Amid elevated uncertainty, how far do rates need to rise? And, why the BoE can't rely on markets to tighten on its behalf.

Risk-off mode despite the Trump-Xi meeting, and ahead of US core PCE and jobs report, China PMIs, CPI in Europe, and a likely RBA hike. We offer some thoughts on the Trump-Xi summit, and preview core PCE and labor market data in the US. In Europe we discuss the latest on Germany's politics, the significance of widening long-end spreads and the upcoming CPI data. We expect an RBA hike, a pickup in China PMIs and a somewhat divergent inflation picture in Australia, Korea and Indonesia. Chapters: US: 02:34, China: 06:42, Rest of Asia: 12:31, Europe: 17:28