N N Taleb's Probability Questions (UNOFFICIAL)

An ETH sponsored meeting and debate between Nassim Taleb and Didier Sornette. Edited to eliminate the parts of the conversation not involving either but otherwise comprehensive.A "diplomatic debate" is defined by Taleb as a conversation in which one looks for synthesis (as opposed to one in which one is trying, as in war, to win the argument, as with political debates). Clearly this type of debate only works when the two parties have mutual respect for each other.Original: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuvbghZuM8U

A presentation at USJ during the Lebanese protests that was live on TV.In the Lebanese "dialect".Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU

Paper in Nature Physics on "the dog wags the tails", how pandemics are fat tailed and the implications.https://www.nature.com/articles/s4156...We also discuss the dangers of verbalistic users of statistical buzzwords without understanding probability s.a. BS vendor Philip Tetlock. They produce one point estimates for distributions with unstable, unknown or infinite moments, which is pseudoscience.We propose basic probability training. “Learn probability for years before learning statistics, or you will hurt yourself”.Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggrW6qi0qZQ

Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60sNXOyGmps

TOPICS: 2nd law, generative AI, computational Irreducibility, climate modeling.Stephen Wolfram's discussion with participants at the Real World Risk Institute Summer School 2024, with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Robert Frey, Raphael Douady, and others.Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKWyx7Mw_rQ

Geoengineering -- Mao's Four Pest Problem -- Brexit -- How antagonism between bad politicians can turn into good government -- The "LongTermism" nonsense of SBF -- The Final ChapterOriginal video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-xhpBuNdCw

Why Ilmanen-style "simulations" of tail performance are both theoretically and empirically flawed because of 1) need to extrapolate extremes, and 2) The Niederhoffer problem.The birth of the Non-Naive Precautionary Principle in East Anglia, in a pub discussion with Rupert Read.Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaWLcxTMwk8

+The Turkey ProblemMeeting Mandelbrot & discovering a wealth of processes generating grey swansMeeting KahnemanThe 3-day meeting with the Harvard geneticist George Church, involving Elon Musk, Anne Wojcicki, Larry Page, Richard Thaler, & others that triggered the non-naive version of the precautionary principle.Original Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDq6rCTl_fU

Scott Patterson discusses with Nassim N Taleb his book Chaos Kings, chapter by chapter. This is Part 1.Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuoCxJ9y8-0

The empirical distribution is not empirical, full of Turkey problems. "Real tails" do not show in past samples because of their property under fat tails. Empirical distributions are, by design, interpolating; we fix by extrapolating and extending the tails.Note the dispute: In French, Bernoulli is pronounced "Ber-noo-yi" not "Ber-noo-li", much like consigliere is pronounced "consiyyere".Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMvQeH9oo2w