Moody’s Talks – Behind the Bonds

Our view of credit fundamentals – a mix of financial and business conditions – has turned increasingly negative across sectors. We examine why industries like airlines and retail are under strain, while others like aerospace and defense are staying afloat. Hosts: Tania Hall, Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings; Tom Coghlan, AVP-Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings  Guests: Sven Reinke, Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings; Frederic Duranson, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings Related research:Aerospace & Defense – Global: Outlook remains positive on sustained demand despite tariff, supply chain effects, 3 June 2025Airline – Global: Outlook negative as growth in demand for travel stalls amid rising economic concerns, 30 May 2025Retail & Apparel – Global: Outlook turns negative as companies and consumers contend with tariff uncertainties, 14 April 2025

Increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) is spurring massive investment in data centers, which could top $2 trillion in the next four years. But huge energy requirements and uncertainties over future computing needs may pose long-term credit risks to developers, landlords and investors.  Host: Louis Hau, Vice President - Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Guests: John Medina, Senior Vice President, Moody's Ratings; Ryan Wobbrock, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings Related research:moodys.com/datacentersData Centres – Europe: Capacity to double by 2028, but energy access and regulation may constrain growth, 14 April 2025Data Centers – Global: 2025 Outlook – Developer leverage, regulatory risk to rise as growth surges, 14 January 2025  

From Tesla to Netflix, innovative technologies and market-disrupting products are still grabbing the attention of consumers and investors. In a rapidly changing market environment, we look at how to identify true disrupters at an early stage and how their credit quality evolves. We’ll also dive into industries being shaken up by disruptions: new weight loss drugs in the pharmaceutical sector and the impact of AI startup DeepSeek on Chinese technology companies. Hosts: Jeff Pruzan, VP, Senior Research Writer - Moody’s Ratings; Livia Yap, VP, Senior Research Writer - Moody’s Ratings Guests: Peter Abdill, MD, Corporate Finance Group - Moody’s Ratings; Shawn Xiong, VP, Senior Analyst - Moody’s Ratings Related research:Top of Mind - Corporates April 2025Corporates – Global: ‘Disrupters’ can benefit from innovation even before their credit metrics catch up 

US tariffs threaten a potential global trade war. Recent weeks have seen frequent shifts in US policy on tariffs as well as the announcement of counter moves from trade partners. What are the likely consequences for credit across different sectors of the US economy and more broadly across global markets? Guest: Paloma San Valentin, Managing Director - North America Corporate Finance, Moody's’ Ratings Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President, Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings  To read more on this topic, visit the Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). Related Research:Tariffs – Global: $3 trillion of trade at risk from tariffs on closest US trading partnersTrade – China: Electronic, machinery and equipment sectors more exposed to impact from US tariffsCorporates – North America: Tariffs are credit negative for a wide swath of sectors, although some would benefit  

Moody’s first Private Credit Outlook predicts that this market will double by 2028 to more than $3 trillion of assets under management. Private credit should benefit from more volatile market conditions and from innovation which is attracting new kinds of customer but also generating new risks.Later in the episode, we look in depth at the surge in retail investor involvement in private credit.Guests: Marc Pinto, Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings; Christina Padgett, Associate Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings; and Alexandra Aspioti, Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s RatingsHost: Tania Hall, Senior Research Writer, Moody’s RatingsTo read more on this topic, visit Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).Related research:Private Credit — Global: 2025 Outlook – Primed for growth as LBOs revive, ABF opportunities accelerateFinancial Institutions – Europe: Revamped ELTIF legislation unlocks growth for the European private credit marketBusiness Development Companies – US: Q3 2024 Update: Rate cuts will further erode net investment income; rise in nonaccruals pausesFinancial Institutions – North America: Private credit ETFs will use public credit for liquidity, a potential performance challenge

The outlooks for corporates in North America, Latin America, China, Asia-Pacific and EMEA are now all stable. We discuss the drivers shaping those outlooks and the similarities and differences across regions. Then we’re taking a deeper dive into the improving credit fundamentals for global leveraged finance next year as interest rates decline and defaults ease.Guests: Paloma San Valentin, Managing Director - North America Corporate Finance , Moody’s Ratings and Jeanine Arnold, Senior Vice President – Senior Analyst – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s RatingsHost: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s RatingsTo read more on this topic, visit Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).Related research:Leveraged Finance – Global: 2025 Outlook – Improving credit conditions will boost deal flow, but risks to persistNonfinancial Corporates – Latin America & Caribbean: 2025 Outlook – Stable on mixed growth, but operating environment implies hazardsNonfinancial Corporates – EMEA: 2025 Outlook - Stable on lower rates, moderate growth, but geopolitics weighNonfinancial Corporates – Asia-Pacific ex China (APAC): 2025 Outlook – Stable on growth, easing interest rates, despite geopolitical tensionsNonfinancial Corporates – China: 2025 Outlook – Stable amid stronger stimulus, but geopolitical risk has climbedNonfinancial Corporates – North America: 2025 Outlook - Stable as inflation wanes but stressed consumers, geopolitics add risk

In the opening segment, we discuss how a host of factors including substantial AI investment underpin our positive outlook for the global diversified information technology sector over the next 12-18 months. Then at 10 minutes, we assess which types of technology companies stand to benefit from all of this AI investment more than others.Guests: Raj Joshi, Senior Vice President, Global Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings and Vincent Gusdorf, AMD - Digital Finance and AI Analytics, Moody’s Ratings.Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s RatingsTo read more on this topic, visit Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).Related Research:Diversified Information Technology – Global: Outlook positive as profits strengthen in steady macroeconomic environmentArtificial Intelligence – Global: Profits from AI remain elusive but some sectors hold more promise than others

M&A activity remains robust across corporate sectors, including pharmaceuticals, homebuilding, mining and telecommunications. In our opening segment, we focus in part on how the green transition is driving deals in the mining segment as companies look to control critical minerals used in renewable energy technologies. In our second segment (10:10), we delve into prospects, including M&A, for large US telecommunications and cable companies. Companies are increasingly battling for high-speed data customers, partly due to the boom in streaming video. Yet the market is saturated with little differentiating the services.Guests: Tobias Wagner, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings and Emile El Nems, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Global Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s RatingsHost: Tania Hall, Senior Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s RatingsTo read more on these topics, visit Moodys.com (some content available only to registered users or subscribers).Related Research:Corporates – North America: IG companies are well-positioned for rising but less transformational M&ATelecommunications – US: Competition intensifies as telco, cable try to justify network costs in saturated market

India's large domestic market shields its companies from external shocks, whereas Indonesia's export-dependent commodity sector prompts government efforts to diversify growth.Guests: Rachel Chua, VP-Senior Analyst; Sweta Patodia, AVP-AnalystHost: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:Nonfinancial Companies – India and Indonesia: Credit quality will remain robust, even as earnings trajectory divergesNonfinancial Companies – Southeast Asia Dollar bond issuance will regain momentum when US interest rates begin to fallNonfinancial Companies – India: Offshore funding indispensable despite improving domestic liquidity

This month our analysts are discussing what’s driving our still positive outlook for the global aerospace and defense sector for the next 12-18 months. Defense budgets are up as a result of rising geopolitical tensions and we expect strong operating profit for these companies. But persistent supply chain issues are delaying the delivery of new planes from the largest manufacturers Boeing and Airbus, even as air travel demand soars. Guests: Frederic Duranson, Vice President – Senior Analyst - Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service and Jonathan Root, Senior Vice President – Senior Analyst – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Ratings Service.Host: Tania Hall, Senior Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service. To read more on this topic, visit Behind The Bonds page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).Related Research:Aerospace and Defense – Global: Outlook remains positive despite lingering post-pandemic problemsGeopolitical risk – Europe: Higher defence spending will strain budgets, but is credit positive for companiesBoeing Company (The): Acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems will be positive for Boeing’s operations over the long runSovereigns – Europe: Some EU sovereigns will face accumulating debt pressures and hard policy choicesAirbus SE: Revised 2024 earnings guidance is credit negative