WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

South Africa has been removed from AGOA from 1 January, and the headlines say disaster. Simon Brown looks at the real numbers: a lost preference worth about US$60 million a year, tariffs on covered goods rising from 12.5% to roughly 15.9%, and job-loss claims that do not hold up. The national impact is a rounding error, but some towns, like Citrusdal, will feel it badly. Topics: AGOA's history and why South Africa never fit, the tariff stack, winners and losers by sector, Pretoria's response and the BEE red line, the 576,000 jobs fact check, diversification, the JSE angle, gold's weakening chart, a MediRite correction, and upcoming JustOneLap events. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com. Subscribe to our free weekly newsletter

Oil is higher for longer, and Sasol is the big local winner. But with the share back at R290, how much good news is already priced in, and when do shareholders see a dividend again? In episode 700, Simon Brown explains why Brent is still above $110 even though Middle East oil flows are back to pre-war levels, sets out three oil price scenarios for the next two years, and runs them through Sasol's earnings sensitivities, debt target and dividend policy. Topics: Brazil ETF crash after the election, global oil inventories and restocking, China's destocking and EV shift, Sasol earnings scenarios, the Sasol dividend timeline, analyst price targets, and how the show began on Classic FM in 2008. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com, powered by Standard Bank Global Markets Retail and Shyft. Subscribe to our free weekly newsletter

Boxer earns slightly more per rand of sales than Shoprite, yet the maths says it will never catch the bigger grocer. Simon Brown compares the two side by side on margins, store economics, growth and valuation, and explains why Pick n Pay's stake in Boxer remains an overhang. He also unpacks why France's 10-year yield has doubled since January 2025 and how higher yields feed a negative debt loop. The trade of the week is Amazon, funded by half of a Dell position that has more than quadrupled. Topics: French 10-year yields, debt feedback loops, actively managed ETFs, Boxer vs Shoprite, Pick n Pay overhang, Amazon robotics, Dell. WorldWideMarkets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets Retail and Shyft. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com. Subscribe to our free weekly newsletter

Naspers and Prosus have roughly halved over the past year. Simon Brown unpacks why: three-quarters of the fall is Tencent, the rest is a stronger rand, while the holdco discount has barely budged at around 40%. At R664 Prosus offers about R1,135 of value, but billions in buybacks haven't closed the gap, and Tencent's capex surge has spooked the market. Topics: Top 40 chart of the week, actively managed ETFs at the Standard Bank Power Hour, the new JustOneLap ETF dividends page, Naspers and Prosus discount maths, the buyback loop, Tencent capex and AI, Just Eat Takeaway and iFood, bull and bear cases, and the November results to watch. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com. Subscribe to our free weekly newsletter

South Africa sold 61,645 new cars in September, the most in almost 20 years, yet the listed motor stocks are falling. Simon Brown explains why: cheap, well-specced Chinese cars are driving the volume while crushing pricing power across new cars, used cars and rental fleets. He digs into the naamsa numbers, what flatters the headline, and why the market is pricing a cyclical peak, then ranks the six JSE motor stocks. Topics: US unemployment chart of the week, actively managed ETFs Power Hour, naamsa September sales, rental fleets and demos, Chinese brands, used car deflation, WeBuyCars, Zeda, Motus, CMH*, Super Group, Metair, hybrids and EVs. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com, powered by Standard Bank and Shyft. Subscribe to our free weekly newsletter

Curro has delisted, leaving ADvTECH and Stadio as the only listed education stocks on the JSE, and both screen as expensive. Simon Brown compares their valuations, looks at the structural shortage of school and university seats in South Africa, and weighs the pending university-status catalyst to find the smart bet. He also covers the MPC's rate hike and a global bond yield sell-off pushing the SA ten-year back towards 9%. Topics: MPC rate hike, global bond yields, Stadio index inclusion, ADvTECH vs Stadio valuations, private schooling in South Africa, the university seat shortage, UNISA, university status, and the investment verdict. Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail and Shyft. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com. Download the ADvTech and Stadio ernings report valuations here.

Platinum smashed its 2008 record in January, then fell almost 50%. Simon Brown works through what actually happened to the platinum group metals and why the JSE-listed miners are still generating enormous cash at the lower price. A 1.5 million ounce deficit became a 265,000 ounce surplus in a year, almost entirely because investment demand and Chinese jewellery buying walked away above 3,000 dollars. Electric vehicles were never the real threat. The growth story nobody is pricing is the AI build-out, with ruthenium up 151 percent and iridium up 30 percent on data centre and hard drive demand. Then the five miners side by side: Valterra, Northam, Implats, Sibanye-Stillwater and Tharisa, and the 1 December deadline on the Northam approach.  Download the free report here. Topics: platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, PGM supply and demand, AI demand, Valterra, Northam, Implats, Sibanye-Stillwater, Tharisa, FOMC, SARB, the rand. Worldwide Markets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Shoprite is trading at all-time highs and has still de-rated 23% in two years. Simon Brown works through the FY26 numbers — 7% revenue growth, a 6% trading margin, HEPS up 12.2% and internal selling price inflation of just 0.8% against national food inflation of 3.9% — and asks whether a business generating a 19.8% return on invested capital against an 11.5% cost of capital is still offering value at 314c. Sixty60 gets the closest look: R25.5bn of sales, 11.1% of South African supermarket sales, and a super app strategy reaching into coffee, cellular, pets, pharmacy and financial services. Before that, the US 10-year above 5%, a Fed credibility problem ahead of Wednesday's FOMC, and a fuel under-recovery large enough to put a local hike back on the table. Topics: FOMC, US 10-year yields, SA MPC, fuel price, inflation, Shoprite, Sixty60, Checkers, Boxer, Pick n Pay, SPAR, Woolworths, Nedbank, Absa, Clicks, Naspers. Worldwide Markets is part of JustOneLap.com. Sign up for our newsletter.

This week WorldWideMarkets runs Simon Brown's keynote from a corporate event: four slides on the four issues facing global markets right now, with AI deliberately left off the list. The world lost roughly 20% of its oil supply when the Strait of Hormuz closed, and Brent still only reached $120 — Simon explains why the oil market had far more slack than anyone realised, and why $80 rather than $60 is the level to plan around. He then covers the rand at R15.92, the two elections falling on 3 and 4 November, and the story he thinks matters most: $40 trillion of US government debt now costing $1.1 trillion a year to service, and a bond market that no finance minister can push around. Finally, why a lifelong gold sceptic now holds gold. Topics: Brent crude, Strait of Hormuz, China's strategic reserves, Taiwan, USD/ZAR, SA local government elections, US midterms, G7 bond yields, US debt, AngloGold Ashanti, gold ETFs. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com. Newsletter https://just-one-lap-newsletter.beehiiv.com/

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is selling short-dated paper and buying long in an attempt to force the 10 and 30-year yields lower. Simon Brown explains why fighting a market rarely ends well, and what that trade has already done to gold and the rand. With gold back at $4,630 and the rand at R16, he then works through all five JSE-listed gold miners — Pan African, DRDGOLD, Harmony, Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti — comparing production, all-in sustaining costs, balance sheets and analyst price targets, before ranking them and setting out the specific red flag attached to each. He closes with two JSE stocks moving the wrong way: Naspers and Clicks. Topics: US Treasury yields, gold price, rand gold price, JSE gold miners, all-in sustaining costs, hedging and collars, Ghana mining leases, Naspers, Clicks. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com. Sign up for our newsletter https://just-one-lap-newsletter.beehiiv.com/