Excess Returns

Brian Portnoy of Shaping Wealth explores why experienced investors build very different portfolios—and what that means for your own money.In How I Invest My Money Volume Two, 25 new contributors explain how they invest their personal wealth. Brian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what those stories reveal about the gap between an optimal portfolio on paper and one you can actually live with.From large cash reserves and paid-off mortgages to investments in their own businesses, their choices reflect family needs, career risk, and priorities that a model can struggle to capture.The conversation also explores why low-cost index funds don't settle every investing question, how financial professionals think about bonds and alternatives, and what it means to compound relationships, knowledge, and opportunities alongside money.How I Invest My Money Volume Two:https://link.amazon/B0aVpNlfSTopics covered:Why knowing how markets work doesn't produce one right portfolio for everyoneWhat Ben Hunt and other contributors reveal about investing beyond a brokerage accountConnecting personal goals to asset allocation and risk toleranceWhy business ownership and household needs change the role of stocks and bondsWhy financial professionals may deliberately hold substantial cash reservesThe difference between spreadsheet optimization and a portfolio you can stick withPaying off a mortgage, feeling secure, and accepting the opportunity costThe complexity and illiquidity that can come with alternative investmentsMatt Zeigler's approach to compounding human, intellectual, social, and financial capitalBrian Portnoy's experience editing the book with his son Zach and sharing opportunities across generationsChapters:00:00 How finance professionals invest their own money05:35 Why investing extends beyond index funds12:20 Connecting financial goals to portfolio choices18:32 Why investors choose different stock and bond allocations25:05 Cash reserves, career risk, and peace of mind34:55 Paying off a mortgage: security versus opportunity cost40:11 Alternatives, complexity, and the investment industry44:40 Matt Zeigler on investing in more than money52:22 Brian Portnoy on family, opportunity, and working with his sonShaping Wealth:https://www.shapingwealth.comFollow Brian Portnoy on X:https://x.com/bportnoy_Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and chairman of Syzygy Asset Management, examines S&P 500 concentration and who could benefit most from AI. Owning today’s market leaders is not necessarily the same as owning tomorrow’s biggest investment winners.Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on AppleIn this episode of The Intangible Economy, Rob joins Kai Wu to explore how index construction shapes what investors own, why index additions can create hidden costs, and why he would consider buying a richly valued IPO before index funds have to buy it. The conversation also covers AI’s shift toward capital-intensive business models, GPU depreciation, intangible assets, and the importance of testing investment ideas rather than chasing impressive backtests.Topics covered:Why Rob Arnott sees a real AI revolution alongside risks in the prices of its leading stocksHow AI customers could capture value beyond the infrastructure buildersValuation changes versus fundamental growth in large and smaller companiesTesla, SpaceX, and the price pressures surrounding index inclusionHidden implementation costs that do not appear in an index fund’s expense ratioSelecting index members by business size rather than market valueAI financing, customer economics, and the risk of rapid hardware obsolescenceR&D, intangible assets, and what conventional book value can missCompetitive moats, leadership, and creating value for customersUsing AI in research while resisting overfitting and performance chasingResearch discussed:⁠The Active Side of Indexing⁠⁠Fundamental Growth⁠Learn more about ⁠Syzygy Asset Management⁠.Timestamps:00:00 Rob Arnott on index concentration and AI’s future winners12:13 What S&P 500 investors own and pay for20:35 Why Rob Arnott would buy before index inclusion25:41 Hidden index costs and fundamental membership rules30:37 Passive investing’s embedded decisions36:40 Big Tech’s shift from asset light to capital intensive42:41 GPU depreciation and economic obsolescence47:03 R&D, intangible assets, and value investing51:04 How durable are competitive moats?59:01 Using AI in business and investment research01:05:11 Performance chasing and the backtest trap Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:⁠excessreturns.co⁠No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Paisley Nardini of Tema ETFs explores AI investing, S&P 500 concentration, and how to build a portfolio around changing market risks. How can investors participate in powerful growth trends without making every holding a bet on the same outcome?In this episode of Excess Returns, Paisley joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss the risks beneath a resilient stock market, why tomorrow’s AI winners may differ from today’s leaders, and where she sees opportunities in power and infrastructure. They also explore private-company exposure inside ETFs, the role of thematic funds alongside a passive core, and why knowing what you own matters more than the number of holdings in your portfolio.Topics covered:What weak market breadth reveals beneath the headline indexesInterest rates, midterm elections, and the limits of historical market patternsPrediction markets as a source of information for investorsAI earnings expectations, debt financing, and the risk of slowing growthWhy bonds can provide income without reliably offsetting equity riskSmall-cap profitability and the importance of quality screensAI bottlenecks, photonics, power demand, and infrastructure investmentPrivate-company exposure in ETFs: liquidity, fees, and investment rationaleUsing thematic strategies as satellite positions around a passive corePortfolio concentration, investment humility, and staying flexibleLearn more about Tema ETFs.Follow Paisley Nardini on X.Timestamps:00:00 Introduction and the risks beneath the market04:37 Higher rates and the midterm election outlook09:17 What investors can learn from prediction markets13:36 AI growth expectations and changing market leadership19:50 Portfolio risk, bonds, and faster market drawdowns26:09 The AI bubble debate and small-cap quality33:45 Who benefits from AI beyond the hyperscalers?39:29 Energy infrastructure and putting AI to work45:54 Private-company exposure inside ETFs52:01 Where thematic investing fits in a portfolio58:32 Commodities, S&P 500 concentration, and humility Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Colin McQueen of T. Rowe Price explains what is changing for international value stocks and how he separates cheap businesses from opportunities that can improve. Higher interest rates, industrial investment, and corporate reform are reshaping the opportunity set, but his process still starts with free cash flow and the price investors pay for it.Colin joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to discuss his evolution from deep value investing to a broader approach that includes quality businesses and restructuring opportunities. We explore why value struggled in the 2010s, what has changed outside the US, and how he uses valuation signals and diversification to manage risk.The conversation also covers AI suppliers and disruption, governance changes in Japan and Korea, opportunities and risks in China, and the case for financial stocks. Colin shares examples involving Samsung, Hitachi, and Rolls-Royce, along with his experiments using AI to challenge investment theses and recognize when conviction has become stubbornness.Topics covered:The lessons Colin McQueen learned from deep value, quality investing, and a difficult decade for valueHow higher rates and spending on infrastructure, defense, and power can change the opportunity setAI supply-chain opportunities and the uncertainty around future winners and losersValuing tangible and intangible businesses through normalized free cash flowUsing AI as an alternative voice when deciding whether an investment thesis is brokenThe US-international valuation gap, earnings growth, and diversification beyond techJapan's corporate reforms, Korea's value-up effort, and the importance of what is already priced inChina's contrarian appeal and the governance risks that accompany itHow restructuring, management changes, and better capital allocation can unlock valueBuilding a diversified portfolio and looking beyond quarterly earnings and market narrativesT. Rowe Price International Value Fundhttps://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/international-value-equity-fund/advisor-class.htmlTimestamps:00:00 Colin McQueen's evolution as a value investor07:04 Why deep value struggled in the 2010s11:20 Higher rates and a more balanced opportunity set16:20 International value, financials, and AI suppliers21:20 AI versus the dot-com era and managing valuation risk25:27 Free cash flow, restructuring, and AI-assisted research29:56 Comparing US and international valuations35:39 The risk dashboard and changing European markets40:00 Corporate reform and opportunities in Japan and Korea44:57 China, Asia ex Japan, and financial stocks49:31 Global connections and why a stock market isn't an economy54:55 Diversification and researching corporate turnarounds59:57 Looking beyond quarterly earnings and extreme narratives Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jim Paulsen sees a risk of a stock market correction as financial conditions tighten and investors grow comfortable with tech's long run of leadership. But his warning does not require a recession or the end of the bull market.In this month's Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to walk through the charts behind his cautious outlook. He explains how rising yields, oil prices, and a firmer dollar can affect the economy with a lag, why favorable seasonality may offer less support than investors expect, and how a slowdown in technology spending could challenge market leadership.We also explore the signals Jim sees in retail, housing, employment, and Walmart's relative performance. He closes with a possible path through a correction: slowing growth, lower inflation and yields, and a recovery that could give the bull market another run. His seven lagging sectors, the "Modest Seven," are central to that case.Topics covered:Why Jim Paulsen is cautious without making a recession or full bear-market callHis financial-conditions gauge and the risks of tightening into an already pressured economyHow restrictive conditions can weaken the November-to-April seasonal advantageThe delayed effects of bond yields, oil prices, and the dollar on economic surprisesTechnology spending relative to GDP and why slower growth could matter for tech stocksAI adoption, pricing, and the challenge of turning investment into profitsHow two decades of tech leadership may encourage complacency and crowded positioningThe divide between AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the "Modest Seven"What sector performance, bond yields, and the Walmart Recession Signal suggest about growthWhy rate cuts may initially accompany falling stocks, and how a correction could set up another advanceFollow Jim Paulsen:Paulsen PerspectivesJim Paulsen on XTimestamps:00:00 Jim Paulsen's outlook: correction risk without a bear-market call07:41 Restrictive conditions and the seasonal buying period14:12 Why the Fed and investors interpret conditions differently20:28 Oil, yields, the dollar, and their lagged effects26:00 Technology spending relative to the economy30:18 Can AI break the historical pattern?35:00 Tech's long leadership cycle and investor complacency42:00 AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the Modest Seven47:06 Market signals ahead of economic reports and bond pressure53:00 Bond competition and the Walmart Recession Signal58:11 How a correction could lead to another bull-market run Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Barry Ritholtz, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler explore why AI's real productivity gains don't automatically translate into an investing edge. From stock picking and market concentration to the financing behind the AI buildout, they separate enthusiasm for the technology from the economics of owning it.Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple PodcastsIn this episode of Click Beta, Barry Ritholtz and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler for a conversation about where AI is already changing their work and where investors should ask harder questions. Barry shares how his team uses AI to analyze portfolio drift and identify clients who may need a rebalance. The discussion also covers client relationships, consumer pricing, creative side projects, and why Barry is increasingly enthusiastic about bonds without calling an end to the equity bull market.Topics covered:Why widely available AI tools may improve research without creating a lasting stock-picking advantageMarket breadth, mega-cap concentration, and the potential impact of large tech IPOsData center financing, credit quality, and the risk of rapid technological changeBarry Ritholtz's use of AI to analyze allocation drift, taxes, and household circumstancesHow better meeting records can strengthen the human side of financial adviceLearning to collaborate with AI and asking better questionsThe debate over dynamic pricing, consumer data, and whose interests AI agents serveBaseball tools, astronomy dashboards, music discovery, and the joy of experimentingDeciding which tasks to automate and which activities are worth doing yourselfBarry Ritholtz's case for bonds, municipal income, and avoiding the reach for yieldFind our guests:Barry Ritholtz — The Big Picture - https://ritholtz.comRitholtz Wealth Management - https://www.ritholtzwealth.comBarry Ritholtz on X - https://x.com/RitholtzDave Nadig's work at etf.com - https://www.etf.comDave Nadig on X - https://x.com/DaveNadigTimestamps:00:00 Meet Click Beta: AI and the stock-picking question05:14 AI concentration and market breadth10:08 Tech IPO valuations and data center financing15:22 Barry Ritholtz: AI and portfolio rebalancing analysis20:58 Can AI improve the human side of financial advice?25:49 Better client questions and better prompts30:13 The AI imagination gap: collaboration versus search36:48 Dynamic pricing and the consumer-retailer arms race41:26 Consumer data and the incentives behind AI agents45:54 Astronomy, music, and testing your assumptions51:18 Automating busywork to make room for curiosity55:39 Creative experiments and choosing what to automate01:00:11 Why Barry Ritholtz is excited about bonds01:04:37 Bonds versus equity income and closing thoughtsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom explore the tension between holding great businesses and keeping a winning stock from becoming too much portfolio risk. Why do two investors who believe in letting winners compound also use 10% position limits?On this episode of 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Davis of Davis Funds and Robert Hagstrom of EquityCompass join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to discuss position sizing, selling mistakes, index concentration and the cost of growth. From Chris Davis’s experience selling Costco to the debate over who will capture AI’s economic benefits, they examine what it takes to hold a business through uncertainty without ignoring risk. Stay for Matt and Bogumil’s closing discussion of the lessons for investors.Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of AppleTopics covered:Why selling a genuinely great business can be an investor’s most expensive mistakeHow client behavior and fund constraints influence 10% position limitsChris Davis’s concerns about index concentration, momentum and future IPO incentivesRobert Hagstrom on trimming positions as the margin of safety shrinksThe bull-case pre-mortem: asking what could make selling today a mistakeWhat Chris Davis missed about Costco’s growth and ability to adaptWhy identical earnings growth can produce different shareholder returnsWhether AI spending builds durable pricing power or delivers more value to usersHow customer trust and restraint on margins can strengthen competitive advantagesBalance sheets, circular financing and the humility required to size a position⁠Chris Davis / Davis Funds⁠⁠Robert Hagstrom / EquityCompass⁠Chapters:00:00 Holding great businesses and the case for position limits06:47 Robert Hagstrom on concentration and client risk12:40 Index concentration, momentum and IPO incentives19:03 Trimming winners, margin of safety and the Costco lesson30:09 Valuation, return on capital and the cost of growth36:01 Is AI’s capital spending cycle temporary?40:10 AI pricing power: builders versus users45:35 Competitive advantage, margins and customer trust51:45 Balance sheets and circular AI financing55:53 Evaluating the AI investment cycle01:00:23 Matt and Bogumil’s takeaways: position sizing and AI01:10:25 Being an AI user versus an AI investor Learn more about the ⁠Excess Returns podcast network⁠.No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies explains why the S&P 500 can reach record highs while many individual stocks struggle. She sees the bull market as intact, but weaker participation raises an important question for diversified investors: is the pullback creating opportunity, or signaling a more lasting change?In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to examine market breadth, rising Treasury yields, sector leadership and the signals that would change her outlook. She also explains why the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF holds roughly half its assets in equities at the time of the conversation, and walks through the charts for gold, oil and Bitcoin.Topics covered:Why narrow leadership can sustain the index while diversified portfolios lagThe difference between an overbought market and a downturn in momentumWhy weak breadth alone is not a reliable market-timing signalSmall-cap support levels and the difference between a relief rally and a lasting recoveryThe Treasury-yield breakout and credit spreads as a longer-term risk gaugeSector relative strength, technology leadership and international market concentrationHow the TACK ETF's rules-based approach produces more defensive positioningGold's role as a potential hedge despite a weakening price trendCrude oil's support and resistance levels and Katie Stockton's Bitcoin outlookThe BNAV ETF's tactical Bitcoin strategy and the risk signals to watch into year-endLearn more about Fairlead Strategies.Follow Katie Stockton on X.Chapters:00:00 The bull market and weakening breadth06:02 Narrow leadership and small-cap weakness13:43 Treasury yields, breakouts and resistance18:56 Credit spreads and sector leadership24:53 TACK positioning, semiconductors and international stocks30:22 Gold, oil and Bitcoin: reading the trends35:30 Bitcoin indicators and the BNAV strategy39:47 Credit, volatility and tech: the year-end risk watch Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network.No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Tom Maher of Hilton Capital Management explains what is changing for small-cap stocks as earnings improve and AI spending reaches beyond big tech. After years of justified large-cap leadership, he sees reasons to revisit smaller companies while remaining selective about business quality, financing needs and valuation.In this episode of Excess Returns, we explore the physical infrastructure behind AI, the case for diversifying beyond the largest stocks, and how Tom Maher finds businesses with improving fundamentals. We also discuss the effects of passive investing, opportunities in reshoring, and why knowing more about a company does not always lead to a better investment decision.Topics covered:Why stronger earnings helped justify large-cap leadership and what could change that balanceHow AI construction and equipment spending can benefit smaller industrial companiesWhy some small companies grow into large caps while others remain smallSelf-funding businesses versus companies that depend on outside capitalUnprofitable index constituents, private equity and the changing IPO marketHow interest rates affect financing costs, valuations and portfolio decisionsWhy ETF flows can move a stock independently of its business fundamentalsFinding improving businesses without mistaking a low valuation for an opportunityEvaluating management incentives, consistency and acquisition decisionsTom Maher's lessons on taking partial profits and reading unexpected stock-price reactionsLearn more about Hilton Capital Management.Chapters:00:00 Tom Maher's outlook: earnings, valuations and risk05:26 Small-cap earnings and AI infrastructure spending11:41 Defining small caps and why some companies stay small16:45 Active management and business quality22:03 Small-cap index quality and companies staying private27:15 Combining stock selection with a macro view32:58 Higher interest rates and portfolio decisions37:04 Passive investing and ETF-driven stock moves41:33 Finding stocks with improving fundamentals51:13 Valuation, consistency and management quality56:39 Reshoring and the industrial recovery01:01:14 Research, profit-taking and investor expectations Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network.No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research explains why he still sees the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2029, even as higher oil prices and bond yields make him more cautious near term. His destination hasn't changed, but the timetable has: he has pushed his 8,400 target to mid-2027 while retaining his Roaring 2020s outlook.In this conversation with Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand, Ed distinguishes an earnings-led bull market from a speculative melt-up, explains why retiring baby boomers keep spending, and makes the case for AI's benefits spreading beyond the Magnificent Seven. He also weighs the return of the bond vigilantes, diesel's inflation impact, global diversification and the risks that could challenge his optimistic base case.Topics covered:Ed Yardeni's FEMO: fabulous earnings momentum versus fear of missing outWhy strong earnings can support stocks even as valuation multiples fallThe assumptions behind Ed Yardeni's S&P 500 target of 10,000 by 2029Retiree wealth, consumer spending and Ed Yardeni's G-shaped economyAI, productivity and data as a fourth factor of productionWhy Ed Yardeni favors the “impressive 493” as potential AI beneficiariesCloud revenue, compute demand and the returns on AI capital spendingBond vigilantes, fiscal deficits and the difference between growth-driven yields and a debt crisisHow diesel costs could feed into core inflationGlobal diversification and the bond market's role in guiding Fed policyChapters:00:00 Ed Yardeni's bull case and near-term caution04:26 The Roaring 2020s and retiree spending08:53 Technology and the productivity thesis13:06 AI, economic growth and data as a resource18:22 Why the economy is more than AI spending24:10 AI returns and the impressive 49329:48 Valuations, S&P 10,000 and rising bond yields38:42 Government debt and demand for Treasuries43:34 Diesel inflation and global diversification47:41 Fed policy and signals from the bond market51:55 Yardeni Research's process and tools56:19 Why Ed Yardeni favors a G-shaped economyLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.co