Everyday Economics

Nevada collected $1.92 billion in sales tax last fiscal year, up about 8.5% and $113 million more than the state’s own forecasters expected. Headlines say Nevada struck gold with a $1 billion surplus. So why did private sector pay fall 0.6% once inflation is factored in?On this episode of Everyday Economics, Center Square publisher Chris Krug and chief economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy explain how states can collect more dollars without becoming any richer. Dr. O breaks down the difference between nominal and real dollars, and why the same rising prices that boost sales tax collections also raise what the state pays for workers, construction, medical care, and contracts.They also look at why the $1 billion surplus is a preliminary two-year forecast ranging from $900 million to $1.64 billion, why Dr. O says now is the time for states to save rather than spend, who comes out behind in a K-shaped economy, and why Nevada’s dependence on tourism and gaming could be a risk going forward.Read Dr. O’s Everyday Economics column every Monday at The Center Square, and subscribe to his newsletter, Markets Measured.#Nevada #Economy #Inflation #StateBudget #Taxes #KShapedEconomy #EverydayEconomics #TheCenterSquare Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week, so why aren’t credit card, auto loan, and mortgage rates coming down? On this episode of Everyday Economics, Center Square publisher Chris Krug and chief economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy explain why the Fed can make money expensive but can’t create workers, oil, or cheaper imports.Dr. O breaks down why the Fed’s 3.75% to 4% target range doesn’t set the rates households pay, and why rising long-term Treasury yields matter more for your borrowing costs. They also dig into whether the AI investment boom is a bubble, with data center construction up about 25% while factory construction falls nearly 20%, and why productivity growth of 2.2% is barely above its long-run average of 2.1%.Ahead of Friday’s October jobs report, Dr. O explains why a consensus forecast of 55,000 jobs is roughly break-even in an economy with almost no labor force growth, and what that means for unemployment, wages, and the Fed. Finally, they look at how an aging America could squeeze state budgets with slower income tax growth and rising Medicaid long-term care costs.Read Dr. O’s full column at The Center Square.#Economy #FederalReserve #InterestRates #JobsReport #AI #Inflation #EverydayEconomics #TheCenterSquare Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The housing market is shut to almost everybody, but at the very top, buyers are still lining up and there aren’t enough homes to sell them.On this episode of Everyday Economics from The Center Square, publisher Chris Krug and PhD economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy dig into his latest column on the luxury buyer pool. With mortgage rates around 7.4% and homebuilder confidence at 32 (down from 68 in 2019), most of the market is strained. But using Redfin data on the top 5% of homes in each market, Dr. Divounguy finds the luxury segment is highly competitive, driven by AI-fueled stock gains and fast-rising incomes at the top.They look at why luxury inventory is so scarce in Midwest markets like Kansas City, St. Louis, and Chicago; why Jacksonville is tight while Miami and Fort Lauderdale have plenty of supply; and why Seattle is moving the other way, with its luxury buyer pool down 14% and listings up 9% amid tech layoffs, a proposed $100,000 fee on certain new H-1B petitions, and the state’s new tax on income over $1 million. Plus, why policy risk matters for housing demand and investment, and how San Francisco is riding the AI boom. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Is this finally a buyer’s market? Not yet, but it’s getting closer. With mortgage rates above 7%, buyers are pulling back, and homeowners locked into 3% rates from 2021 have little reason to sell.On this episode of Everyday Economics from The Center Square, publisher Chris Krug and PhD economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy break down the mortgage rate lock-in effect and what it means for buyers, sellers, and renters. They run the real numbers: on a $400,000, 30-year loan, moving from 3% to 7.4% pushes principal and interest from about $1,700 to about $2,800 a month, roughly $1,100 more.Plus: should a renter with a down payment saved buy now at 7% and refinance later, or keep waiting? Dr. Divounguy explains why the answer depends on where you live and how long you’ll stay, why buying can make sense in Midwest markets like Cleveland, Columbus, and Kansas City, why renting often wins in New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, and San Diego, and why your stock market returns belong in the buy-vs-rent math too. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Fed raised rates again, but not everyone feels it the same way. Savers and investors may be coming out ahead, while renters, borrowers, and lower-income households are getting squeezed. On this episode of Everyday Economics from The Center Square, publisher Chris Krug and PhD economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy break down who actually wins and loses when interest rates go up. They look at the Fed’s unanimous quarter-point hike, a weak September jobs report (just 29,000 jobs, with July revised to a loss), new JPMorgan Chase Institute data showing Americans selling stock gains to keep up with prices, and the University of Michigan’s October consumer sentiment survey. Plus, a real-world look at two households on the same street, whether now is the time to buy a car with dealer lots full and 0% financing deals popping up, and why higher rates and inflation are not a windfall for state and local governments, or the taxpayers who fund them. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Higher interest rates are creating a growing challenge for commercial real estate as loans mature and property values fall. On this episode of Everyday Economics, Chris Krug and Dr. Orphe Divounguy break down what happens when an office or apartment building owner has to refinance at today's higher rates.They discuss:Why higher rates can mean higher debt service and lower property valuesWhat happens when commercial real estate loans matureWhy businesses are holding onto workers despite slower hiringHow AI and productivity are changing business decisionsWhat falling commercial property values could mean for city tax revenueHow lenders and borrowers may be affected as loans are refinancedEveryday Economics is part of The States, The Center Square's daily news magazine. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Americans are still spending — but they’re changing where and how they spend.Consumer spending is up 4.5% from a year ago, but households are increasingly trading down to cheaper stores, lower-priced goods and more affordable housing. PhD economist Orphe Divounguy explains why that matters for the economy and for the Federal Reserve.More than half of new homes sold in August were priced below $400,000, compared with about 46% a year earlier. With mortgage rates rising above 7%, Divounguy expects builders to continue offering incentives, cutting prices and shifting toward smaller, less expensive homes.The bigger question is whether businesses can continue raising prices. With consumers becoming more price-sensitive and the labor market remaining weak, businesses are struggling to pass higher costs from tariffs and energy onto shoppers.Chris Krug and Orphe also break down what to watch in Wednesday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report and why core PCE could remain around 3.3% year over year.Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square Newswire Service. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mortgage rates are around 7.2% — and the housing market is increasingly splitting into two very different experiences.PhD economist Orphe Divounguy explains why higher rates are keeping many buyers on the sidelines while luxury housing continues to perform well. Builders are responding with major incentives, including an estimated $44,000 per home in rate buy-downs and closing-cost assistance to get buyers across the finish line.At the same time, inventory is rising in parts of the country, giving buyers who can afford to transact more bargaining power. But for many households, higher borrowing costs and a weaker labor market are making homeownership increasingly difficult.Chris Krug and Orphe also examine what this divide could mean for state tax revenues, particularly as governments rely on income taxes, sales taxes and capital gains.Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square Newswire Service. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Federal Reserve just raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4%. But what does the rate hike actually mean for Americans?Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy examine the Fed’s decision and the growing divide between savers and borrowers. Higher-income households with homes and investments may benefit from higher rates, while younger households, renters and borrowers face higher costs for credit cards, auto loans and mortgages.Divounguy describes it as a “two-speed economy,” with interest-rate-sensitive parts of the economy struggling to keep up while the highest-income households continue to do relatively well.The rate hike could also affect state and local governments. Higher borrowing costs can make infrastructure and public projects more expensive, potentially putting additional pressure on government budgets and taxpayers.The discussion also looks ahead to new home sales, builder incentives, inflation expectations and whether rising energy prices are spreading into the broader economy.Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square Newswire Service. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Federal Reserve faces a major decision this week: raise interest rates or hold them steady as energy prices push inflation higher. Markets are pricing in a strong chance of a quarter-point rate hike, but PhD economist Orphe Divounguy argues the Fed should hold. His concern: the current inflation increase is being driven largely by a supply shock in energy, while the underlying economy is showing signs of weakness. Core inflation is around 2.4%, wage growth is easing, hiring remains near a decade low and recent economic growth has been heavily concentrated in AI investment. Divounguy argues that raising interest rates can cool demand — but it cannot produce more oil or directly fix an energy supply shock. Chris Krug and Orphe Divounguy also examine the growing divide inside the Federal Reserve, inflation expectations, the labor market and whether Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish comments at Jackson Hole have created a credibility problem heading into Wednesday's decision. The key question: Is another rate hike necessary to fight inflation, or could it risk over-tightening an already fragile economy? Everyday Economics is hosted by Chris Krug and PhD economist Orphe Divounguy and is brought to you by The Center Square. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.