Economics Explored

Australia’s fertility rate is now at a record low of 1.48 babies per woman. Gene Tunny and John Humphreys discuss the sharp fall in fertility rates worldwide and what it means for Australia’s economy and society. They explore how declining birth rates threaten our economy, government budgets, and social cohesion, and whether migration, pro-natalist policies, or cultural change can reverse this trend.Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. TimestampsIntroduction to Episode on Decline in Fertility Rates and Economic Implications (0:00)Discussion with John Humphreys on Fertility Rates (5:12)Economic and Social Forces Driving Down Fertility (14:16)Impact of Low Fertility Rates on Asset Prices and Social Cohesion (15:50)Challenges of Migration and University Policies (20:25)Historical and Sociological Factors Influencing Fertility Rates (29:57)Potential Solutions and Policy Recommendations (40:15)TakeawaysAustralia’s fertility rate has fallen to 1.48 births per woman—its lowest level ever and far below the replacement rate of 2.1.Migration isn’t a sustainable fix: fertility rates are also falling in nearly every country, even traditional migrant sources.Economic and cultural shifts—urbanisation, delayed marriage, individualism, and welfare-state expansion—have weakened traditional social structures supporting families.The Baby Bonus experiment of the 2000s temporarily lifted fertility, but its effects were uneven and costly.Long-term implications include labour shortages, rising welfare burdens, asset price declines, and profound cultural change.Links relevant to the conversationABS births data:https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/births-australia/2024e61 analysis of the Baby Bonus:https://e61.in/australias-fertility-decline-evidence-and-policy-experience/Birthgap documentary:https://youtu.be/m2GeVG0XYTc?si=vuZvBqwVkZn3q1oZLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Shutdowns are back—and Gene delves into the reasons, ramifications, and rhetoric. This episode examines the latest U.S. government shutdown, its potential to outlast previous ones, and whether it could signal deeper structural changes—or just more political theatre.Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. TimestampsUS Government Shutdown Overview (0:00)Political Causes and Consequences (2:47)Impact on Federal Workers and Services (6:44)Economic and Financial Implications (10:22)Data Blackout and Market Trust (19:25)Political Dynamics and Potential Resolutions (21:07)Potential Long-Term Economic and Market Impacts (23:38)Call for Public Input and Conclusion (24:02)TakeawaysThe shutdown has happened due to a failed continuing resolution, not the debt ceiling—this time, it’s a clash over health insurance subsidies and spending on undocumented immigrants.Shutdowns rarely alter the long-term trend in government spending, as federal outlays tend to rebound after the shutdown ends.Federal workers often get back pay, but contractors do not—highlighting real economic pain for many.Economic impact is limited and short-term, though the longer this drags on, the greater the potential for serious consequences.This shutdown might be different, as political polarisation has deepened and there are hints of a broader agenda to shrink government permanently.Links relevant to the conversationCBO report on the 2019 shutdown:https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54937CBS News report “Who gets back pay and who doesn't after a government shutdown?”https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-contract-worker-back-pay/David Wessel’s Brookings article “What is a government shutdown?”:https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-government-shutdown-and-why-are-we-likely-to-have-another-one/J.P. Morgan note “How does a potential U.S. government shutdown impact markets?”:https://am.jpmorgan.com/au/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/how-does-us-government-shutdown-impact-markets/Emily Jashinsky’s video “Democrats LOSE IT over sombrero meme as Trump Unleashes 'Doge 2.0'”https://youtu.be/JQCg-NuTAYI?si=s7eS7VgBH43Ab8VDBernie Sanders and AOC video on the shutdown:https://youtu.be/fqWsPk7QO24?si=1RBjjEQogMMoLCzrRelevant previous Economics Explored episodes:Debt, Inflation & Unrest: Western Warnings - ep297https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/debt-inflation-unrest-western-warnings-ep297US Debt Ceiling: Why Trump is Right to Call for its Abolition & Gene’s Experience with Aussie Debt Ceiling - EP268https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/us-debt-ceiling-why-trump-is-right-to-call-for-its-abolition-genes-experience-with-aussie-debt-ceiling-ep268Is Uncle Sam Running a Ponzi Scheme with the National Debt? w/ Dr Dan Mitchell - EP235https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/is-uncle-sam-running-a-ponzi-scheme-with-the-national-debt-w-dr-dan-mitchell-ep235Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED

What does net zero really mean, and what will it take to get there? In this episode, highlights from past guests reveal the full spectrum of views—from urgent calls for climate action to scepticism about costs and feasibility. With perspectives on extreme weather, carbon pricing, nuclear energy, coal, and productivity trade-offs, this episode cuts to the heart of the net-zero debate. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. TimestampsEconomic Impact of Climate Change with Nikki Hutley (0:00)Defining Net Zero with Tony Wood (8:56)Criticism of Net Zero by Senator Matt Canavan (24:04)Challenges of Meeting Australia’s 2035 Emissions Targets with John Humphreys (39:06)TakeawaysThe cost of inaction versus transition costs—Nicki Hutley warns that extreme weather and health impacts already impose huge economic costs, and she argues the costs of inaction outweigh the costs of action.Technology is key—Tony Wood from the Grattan Institute stresses the need for innovation in batteries, hydrogen, soil carbon, and carbon capture.Scepticism about global commitments—Senator Matt Canavan doubts countries like China and India will follow through, arguing Australia risks self-harm.Productivity at risk—John Humphreys warns ambitious emissions targets could de-industrialise Australia and hurt long-term growth.The debate remains unresolved—balancing economic prosperity with climate goals is still one of the defining challenges of our age.Links relevant to the conversationAustralian Taxpayers’ Alliance Livestream of 18 September 2025 (which shows the emission reduction charts Gene refers to in this episode):https://www.youtube.com/live/8YxnRT_YD50?si=_A1udQmCag3dMtyCPrevious Economics Explored episodes, including the highlights from this episode:https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/climate-change-with-nicki-hutley-from-deloitte-access-economicshttps://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/cop26-climate-change-summit-with-tony-wood-grattan-institutehttps://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/aussie-senator-matt-canavan-cop26-dissenting-voices-part-2Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Gene Tunny and John Humphreys unpack the economic troubles brewing in the UK, France, and the US—rising debt, social unrest, inflation, and faltering productivity. They explore why bond markets are sounding alarms, why governments are struggling to respond, and what this all means for Australia. The episode draws urgent lessons from these fiscal failures, with stark warnings for what lies ahead if policy inertia continues. Among other issues, they discuss Gary Stevenson’s proposal for a wealth tax in the UK. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected] episode was recorded on Thursday, 18 September 2025.  TimestampsEconomic Challenges in Major Western Economies (0:00)Discussion on UK Economic Turmoil (2:31)Impact of Bond Market on UK Government (7:35)Comparison with France and the US (16:43)Lessons for Australia (35:29)Impact of Political Polarisation (43:55)Potential Solutions and Challenges (44:15)Global Economic Repercussions (44:49)Conclusion and Final Thoughts (46:24)TakeawaysThe UK’s fiscal crisis is deepening with stalled per capita GDP, rising debt, and bond markets losing confidence.France is politically paralysed amid fiscal deficits and bond yields now surpassing Italy’s—an unprecedented shift.The US faces stagflation risks, with inflation ticking back up and concerns about economic growth.Productivity stagnation is the root problem across Western economies, fueling deficits and weakening growth.Australia must learn from others' mistakes, avoiding unsustainable spending and instead boosting productivity.Links relevant to the conversationSlides with charts referred to this episode:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZMkunGxYj57TnCajOxvMcTEh0fQj0y5L/view?usp=sharingAustralian Taxpayers’ Alliance Livestream of 18 September 2025:https://www.youtube.com/live/8YxnRT_YD50?si=_A1udQmCag3dMtyCLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Show host Gene Tunny breaks down why price controls are one of the most consistently failed economic policies. Using vivid historical examples from the 1970s US, the Soviet Union’s command economy, and Venezuela’s toilet paper crisis, he illustrates how interfering with the price mechanism leads to shortages, inefficiency, and unintended consequences. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected] to the Podcast and Episode Theme (0:00)Price Controls and Their Economic Implications (2:47)President Nixon's Wage and Price Controls (8:53)The Soviet Union's Central Planning System (18:20)Economic Inefficiency in the Soviet Steel Industry (29:24)Venezuela's Toilet Paper Crisis (31:57)TakeawaysPrice controls disrupt vital economic signals, leading to misallocation of resources and market inefficiency.Nixon’s wage and price freeze in the 1970s led to empty supermarket shelves, black markets, and farmers slaughtering livestock to cut their losses.Soviet central planning failed due to the absence of price signals, leading to constant shortages—even of basic goods like meat and bread.Venezuela’s price caps on essentials like toilet paper created massive shortages and forced the government to import millions of rolls.The price mechanism acts as a societal dashboard, helping balance supply and demand more efficiently than central planning or rationing.Links relevant to the conversationBen Bernanke’s book – 21st Century Monetary Policyhttps://www.amazon.com.au/21st-Century-Monetary-Policy-Inflation/dp/1324020466BBC News Article on Venezuela's Toilet Paper Crisis: "Venezuela aims to end toilet paper shortage"https://www.bbc.com/news/business-22621833Bread and Autocracy: Food, Politics, and Security in Putin’s Russiahttps://www.amazon.com.au/Bread-Autocracy-Politics-Security-Putins/dp/019768436XStephen Kotkin – Armageddon Averted: The Soviet Collapse 1970–2000https://www.amazon.com.au/Armageddon-Averted-Soviet-Collapse-1970-2000/dp/0195368630Friedrich Hayek – “The Use of Knowledge in Society”https://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/hykKnw.htmlLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

In this candid discussion, show host Gene Tunny joins a panel to expose the shortcomings of the Australian Government’s August 2025 economic reform summit. Topics include the high cost of energy, tax policy, the ballooning NDIS and big government generally, AI regulation, and Senator Matt Canavan’s rival roundtable, which Gene attended. This episode borrows the audio from Damian Coory’s The Other Side episode broadcast on YouTube on 22 August 2025. The other guests are Graham Young, Executive Director of the Australian Institute for Progress, and Dan Petrie, a data analyst and former editor at Bloomberg.  Please email Gene your thoughts on this episode via [email protected] Government's Economic Reform Roundtable Overview (0:00)Critique of the Official Roundtable (3:26)Challenges in Defining Productivity and Addressing Labor Market Issues (6:59)Impact of Government Spending and Energy Costs on Productivity (9:48)Innovation and Small Business Challenges (34:00)Taxation and Economic Reform Proposals (34:29)NDIS and Healthcare Funding Challenges (51:04)Final Thoughts on the Roundtable and Future Directions (51:15)TakeawaysThe Official Roundtable Lacked Focus & Diversity: Only six business leaders were among 30 participants — a serious oversight for a summit focused on productivity and economic reform.Energy Costs Are a Major Barrier: Australia’s rapid rollout of renewable energy is raising energy prices, affecting both consumers and heavy industries.Government Spending Is Too High: Public spending is nearing 40% of GDP, with half of Australians now receiving government income, raising concerns about sustainability and productivity.Small Business & Innovation Ignored: There was little meaningful discussion of the role of small business or innovation in driving productivity.AI Regulation Needs a Balanced Approach: The roundtable discussions on AI were dominated by union concerns, focusing on job protection rather than innovation. This risks stifling technological advancement and missing opportunities for productivity gains.NDIS Costs Are Spiralling Out of Control: The National Disability Insurance Scheme is growing at an unsustainable rate, with concerns about high eligibility and inadequate oversight. The government’s proposed changes lack proper consultation and shift costs to the states.Links relevant to the conversationThe Other Side episode - “AUSTRALIA's Decline - No Vision, No Innovation, Just MORE Big Government and Taxes”:https://youtu.be/FeicrCu2sO0?si=Rd8xZV_CsmLzikW0Senator Matt Canavan’s roundtable broadcast on Sky News - “Real Productivity Roundtable reveals four ways to save Australia:”https://youtu.be/4xBGcjIXgHU?si=Uk1kaqq92bhacSmaRobert Carling’s recent paper - “Leviathan on the Rampage: Government spending growth a threat to Australia’s economic future”:https://www.cis.org.au/publication/leviathan-on-the-rampage-how-the-growth-of-government-is-draining-australias-economic-vitality/Lumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED

Professor Chris Berg from RMIT University discusses the transformative potential of AI, likening it to the next industrial revolution. He argues that AI, particularly tools like ChatGPT, can boost white-collar productivity by up to 40%. Governments should cautiously avoid AI regulation to maximise these gains. Berg emphasises AI's bottom-up adoption and its exponential advancements. He also touches on the social implications, including the formation of parasocial relationships with AI and the potential for AI to displace certain jobs. The conversation, with ATA Chief Economist John Humphreys and Economics Explored host Gene Tunny, highlights AI’s dual promise of productivity gains and societal challenges.Please email Gene your thoughts on this episode via [email protected] to AI and Productivity (0:00)Government's Approach to AI Regulation (3:01)Bottom-Up Technology and Industrial Applications (9:40)Comparisons to Previous Industrial Revolutions (12:04)Social and Economic Implications of AI (16:46)AI and Human Labour (17:15)AI's Role in Public Policy Debates (35:41)Conclusion and Future Prospects (38:35)TakeawaysAI as “Infinite Intelligence” – Berg views AI, particularly LLMs like ChatGPT, as offering effectively infinite intelligence, capable of dramatically transforming productivity.White-Collar Disruption – AI is not just about automating manual labour. It poses a serious threat (and opportunity) for traditionally “smart” jobs like writing, research, and art.Regulatory Caution – While Europe has rushed to regulate AI, Australia hasn’t, allowing innovation and productivity gains to take root.Parasocial Relationships with AI – AI companions (e.g., AI-infused toys or assistants) may change human interaction, especially among children and vulnerable populations.Rethinking Migration via Robots – Remote-controlled humanoid robots may one day allow low-skilled workers in developing countries to "work" in advanced economies without leaving home.Links relevant to the conversationATA livestream on 21 August with Chris Berg:https://austaxpayers.substack.com/p/productivity-ideas-with-chris-bergLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Show host Gene Tunny and Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance Chief Economist John Humphreys tackle hot topics in Australian economic policy: the case for a cash flow company tax, the politics and maths of a gas ban, why stamp duty drags the economy, the growing size of government and the cost of living crisis.  Please email Gene your thoughts on this episode via [email protected] and Greens’ Gas Ban (0:00)Government Spending and Adverse Effects on Economic Dynamism (8:32)Stamp Duty and Efficiency Cost (19:42)Inflation Data and Cost of Living Crisis (25:39)Productivity Commission's Company Tax Reform (28:55)Workers' Compensation and Tax Incidence (43:11)Tariffs and Taxation (54:52)TakeawaysCash Flow Tax Reform – The Productivity Commission proposes cutting company tax to 20% for most firms, adding a 5% cash flow tax, and keeping the system revenue neutral—aimed at boosting investment.Gas Ban Impact – John argues the NSW Greens’ proposal would delay global warming by only 10 hours by 2100, even under optimistic assumptions, yet could raise costs for consumers and businesses.Stamp Duty Inefficiency – Economic modelling by the Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) shows stamp duty’s deadweight loss at 70–80 cents per $1 raised, far worse than GST or income tax.Government Spending Growth – The CIS’s Robert Carling claims over half of Australians now earn primary income from government sources, raising concerns about productivity and political incentives.Hidden Tax Burdens – Workers’ compensation costs, though nominally paid by employers, often reduce workers’ wages in the long run, John argues.Links relevant to the conversationATA livestream on 7 August:https://austaxpayers.substack.com/p/australia-considers-cashflow-taxJohn’s article on Greens’ gas ban:https://austaxpayers.substack.com/p/greens-propose-gas-banPC’s cash flow tax proposal:https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/resilient-economy/interimLeviathan on the Rampage: Government spending growth a threat to Australia’s economic futurehttps://www.cis.org.au/publication/leviathan-on-the-rampage-how-the-growth-of-government-is-draining-australias-economic-vitality/CoPS on stamp duty: Some taxes are inefficient at any level. Even modest reforms will helphttps://www.vu.edu.au/about-vu/news-events/news/some-taxes-are-inefficient-at-any-level-even-modest-reforms-will-helpLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Kyle Touchstone, Director of Raleigh Economic Development, shares with us how Raleigh became the top-ranked large city in the US, according to the Milken Institute. Kyle and show host Gene Tunny discuss the city's success in biotech, AI, quantum computing, and advanced manufacturing—all underpinned by the world-class universities and innovation ecosystem of North Carolina’s Research Triangle. The conversation also explores Raleigh’s growing role in the gaming industry, including its connection to Epic Games—the creator of Fortnite—and the rise of eSports in the region.Please email Gene your thoughts on this episode via [email protected]'s Economic Growth and Milken Institute Ranking (0:00)Industry Sectors and Infrastructure in North Carolina (5:17)Significant Announcements and Investments (7:23)Population Growth and Quality of Life (12:23)Entrepreneurial Ecosystem and Community Support (15:08)Tax Policy and Economic Development (15:35)Quantum Computing and AI (19:49)Sports and Entertainment (43:40)eSports and Gaming (47:55)Lessons in Economic Development (50:39)TakeawaysTop Rankings: Raleigh was named the #1 best-performing large city by the Milken Institute and is part of the #1 state for business (North Carolina, per CNBC).Research Triangle Advantage: Home to NC State, Duke, and UNC Chapel Hill, the Research Triangle fuels innovation with top-tier talent and research.Massive Investment: Biotech firms, such as Biogen, Amgen, and Genentech, have invested billions, drawn by the infrastructure, affordability, and access to research.Quantum & AI Leadership: IBM’s quantum hub and regional AI focus are positioning Raleigh as a leader in next-gen computing.Entrepreneurial Ecosystem: Startups like Pendo and social enterprises like 321 Coffee thrive thanks to a strong support network and educational institutions.Links relevant to the conversationRaleigh, NC and Gainesville, GA Top Milken Institute’s 2025 Annual Ranking of Best-Performing Cities:https://milkeninstitute.org/content-hub/news-releases/raleigh-nc-and-gainesville-ga-top-milken-institutes-2025-annual-ranking-best-performing-citiesRaleigh Economic Development:https://www.raleighecondev.org/Zoom catch up with show host Gene TunnyJoin Gene and other listeners for a catch-up on Zoom on Thursday, 31 July at: 21.30 to 22.30 AEST/GMT+10 (Australian East Coast time)12.30 to 13.30 BST/GMT+1 (British Summer time)07.30 to 08.30 EDT/GMT-4 (US East Coast time)The link to the Zoom room is:https://us02web.zoom.us/j/9471595560RSVP by 20.00 GMT+10 on 31 July to [email protected] Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Show host Gene Tunny and colleague John Humphreys dissect Australia’s latest controversial Reserve Bank interest rate decision, debating inflation targeting and central bank independence. They challenge conventional economic thinking, particularly around the NAIRU—the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). The episode also tackles the implications of declining fertility rates globally, the controversial Tobin tax on financial transactions, and critiques current climate policies through an economic lens.Please email Gene your thoughts on this episode via [email protected] Bank of Australia's Interest Rate Decision and Inflation Targeting (0:00)Debate on RBA Independence and Inflation Targeting (8:12)Challenges Facing the Australian Economy (23:00)Libertarian Perspectives on Currency and Population Decline (35:33)Economic Implications of Declining Fertility (36:31)Tobin Tax and Its Economic Rationale, Pros and Cons (50:12)Conclusion and Future Topics (56:48)TakeawaysRBA Decision Controversy: The RBA's recent decision on interest rates highlights the complexity and uncertainty around inflation management.NAIRU Concept Critique: The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment is flawed and may misguide policy, according to John Humphreys.Demographic Concerns: Declining fertility and aging populations could be the defining issue of the 21st century.Economic Impacts of Climate Policy: Current climate change actions often lack transparent cost-benefit analyses, raising economic risks.Risks of Tobin Taxes: Tobin taxes seem feasible at low levels but risk inefficiency, evasion, and global governance issues.Links relevant to the conversationFull ATA livestream “ATA Live #20: Tobin tax & interest rates”:https://www.youtube.com/live/34WBRZNbwwc?si=TPU14g7SffIXuWMPAustralian Taxpayers’ Alliance:https://www.taxpayers.org.au/Zoom catch up with show host Gene TunnyJoin Gene and other listeners for a catch-up on Zoom on Thursday, 31 July at: 21.30 to 22.30 AEST/GMT+10 (Australian East Coast time)12.30 to 13.30 BST/GMT+1 (British Summer time)07.30 to 08.30 EDT/GMT-4 (US East Coast time)The link to the Zoom room is:https://us02web.zoom.us/j/9471595560RSVP by 20.00 GMT+10 on 31 July to [email protected] Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED