Trump's tariffs could drive Chinese M&A in Europe

The US’ National Football League has recently enacted a new game plan – the league passed a resolution in August to allow private equity investment into team franchises for the first time. With the average team valued at approximately USD 5bn, the new initiative presents big opportunities for investors.The new resolution is playing into an even larger trend: the creation of a new asset class of sports investing, with PE investments into the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins leading the charge. Furthermore, deal structures have opened up opportunities to own broadcasting rights, real estate, and infrastructure via the stadiums themselves.Tom Cane, Mergermarket’s US-based funds editor, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss how the NFL’s playbook will impact investors, including a look into: How do firms get the necessary pre-approval to buy stakes in different teams and how much can they own?Which funds are already involved in the NFL and how have those deals come together?How have other sports leagues like the MLB and NBA allowed private investments?What’s on the horizon, including an interest in investing in women’s sports and college teams?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

European dealmakers need to consider national-security concerns, state subsidies to make deals happenTrump’s second term likely to accelerate protectionist trendsAdvisors and consultants who want to help their European clients access Chinese capital need to work hard on narratives that emphasise industrial use cases while downplaying any national security concerns.The continent badly needs investment to rebuild its manufacturing base. At the same time, Chinese investors are thinking about deploying capital overseas to sidestep an acceleration of protectionist trends throughout the world when President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House next month.There are two main hurdles to clear to make these cross-border transactions happen. Dealmakers need to show that bringing Chinese capital into European manufacturing is safe from a national-security perspective; while downplaying the risks of state subsidies in the Asian giant distorting home-grown markets.John West, Mergermarket’s managing editor for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Luuk de Klein, head of analytics (EMEA), join Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss why the art of the defensive deal is likely to be a big theme of Trump’s second term throughout the world.https://mergermarket.ionanalytics.com/content/1004138166What are the implications for global markets of a likely block on Nippon Steel’s [TYO:5402] USD 15bn takeover of US Steel [NYSE:X]?https://mergermarket.ionanalytics.com/content/1004148730Has Europe’s automotives industry been able to access Chinese capital as it struggles with the transition to electric vehicles (EVs)?Why is the fine print of any incoming tariffs so important for any dealmakers considering defensive transactions in the US?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast

The post-closing period is when companies are most vulnerable to hacks. The deal announcement might have attracted the attention of malicious hackers at a time that large amounts of data are changing hands.Peter A. Emmi, partner and leader in the Technology Transactions practice within Reed Smith’s Global Corporate Group has some clear advice for dealmakers: “Do your homework and prepare well.” Key steps include securing virtual data rooms (VDRs) and only using artificial intelligence (AI) tools in private networks.Emmi joins Aurelia Seidlhofer, Mergermarket’s Senior Germany, Austria and Switzerland (DACH) correspondent, and Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the risks around dealmaking, including AI systems generating hard-to-spot mistakes or copyright issues. They also discuss some of the opportunities.Why are junior staff seeing a bigger impact on their workflows than their senior colleagues?Is AI a game-changer for dealmakers? Or is it more about incremental changes?How can AI be used in deal sourcing, due diligence and in drafting legal documents?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast M&A Tales, which looks at the human side of M&A.

Dealmakers in China and the country’s government are unsurprised by US President-elect Donald Trump's election victory and have been preparing for strategies to cope with his threats of tariffs. A strong protectionist stance from the US could fuel Chinese-led transactions in other regions like Europe and Southeast Asia, particularly in mid-market sector. From stimulus packages to increasing inquires about M&A opportunities, China has been prepared for this American political outcome.Ling Yang, Mergermarket’s China-based editor, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the impact of Trump’s re-election on US-China deals.How could this impact retail M&A like the presence of Walmart’s Sam’s Club in China, given its recent sale of JD.com?How have underlying trends been shaping China-US dealmaking since before the election?How have Chinese dealmakers been preparing for geopolitical volatility in China? Other than Europe, which regions are they thinking about for cross-border transactions?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

Australia’s leaky M&A market is worrying market regulators.One of the most notorious examples came last year, during a deal involving Nitro Software, when a newspaper published the names of the regulators on Australia’s Takeovers Panel that were scrutinising the transaction.As a result of disclosures like this, both the Takeovers Panel and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) have expressed concerns about drops of confidential deal information through backchannels.Simon Segal, Mergermarket’s Australia director, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the different reasons why market insiders leak information. Are deals where info is leaked more likely to lapse than those that maintain a veil of secrecy?What are the penalties for deal practitioners who get caught leaking confidential information?Is there a market transparency case to justify some leaks some of the time?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast

The US Federal Reserve might not have been thinking of Brazil when it cut interest rates by half a point in September, but the home of Pelé has been an unlikely beneficiary of US dovishness.Lower interest rates meant US investors turned their attention to emerging markets equities and businesses. The result was a carnival of investment in Brazil just as the country was continuing to inch its way to investment grade status.Deal activity boomed throughout 3Q24. The increasingly liberalized sector of sports betting is becoming a hot market in a soccer mad nation. One company seeking to score big returns here is Flutter Entertainment [NYSE:FLUT, LON:FLTR] which bought a majority stake in Betnacional operator NSX Group for USD 350m just before the Fed decision.https://mergermarket.ionanalytics.com/content/1003914075Thiago Barrozo, Mergermarket’s Latin American editor, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss why Brazilian dealmakers are in such a good mood, despite terrible flooding earlier in the year.Why will upcoming tax reforms continue to help the market?What are the hottest areas in Brazilian tech?Why is the sports betting liberalization such a big deal?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast

French private equity experts are facing performance anxiety as 2024 turns into 2025 at a time when PE exits have plummeted to their lowest level since 2013.At the same time, there is a fierce fight for quality assets, with trade buyers providing stiff competition to sponsors. And, to keep everyone on their toes, the exit market remains dogged by political uncertainty as a result of a hung parliament.A consultancy called Astek, which is backed by ICG, is an example of a PE-backed company with ambitious plans, despite the headwinds. It wants to carry out half a dozen bolt-on dealss per year over the 2025-2027.https://mergermarket.ionanalytics.com/content/1003975431Arezki Yaiche, Mergermarket’s French bureau chief, and senior reporter Myriam Mariotte join Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss why French exits remain so tricky.Why are dealmakers finding it hard to move beyond their pre-election wait-and-see stance?Why are regulatory issues so important in France?How have Mergermarket’s French team begun to take the Pulse of the market?https://mergermarket.ionanalytics.com/content/1003960050All this and more in this week’s Dealcast

The Federal Reserve’s bumper half-point rate cut in September has opened an unexpected pre-election window for sponsors seeking to list portfolio companies in an IPO.Sponsors Carlyle Group [NASDAQ: CG] and Partners Group [SWX: PGHN] saw a window following the Fed cut and ran through it without a second thought to the next occupant of the White House, ahead of a 50/50 Presidential election on 5 November.Mergermarket's North American equity capital markets (ECM) senior reporter Cristiano Dalla Bona joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss why the sponsors were able to shake off the political risks.Will Platinum Equity follow Carlyle Group and Partners Group’s example with an IPO for Ingram Micro?What was the mood in the US ECM like before the Fed rate cut?How will the IPO market react to different outlooks in 2025 depending on who wins the election?

In this episode, we talk about logistics in Latin America, where Brazil is taking the top position in M&A, with strong consolidation. Despite many challenges yet to be faced in the region, the South American nation is even taking advantage of nearshoring opportunities in Mexico.Joining Julie-Anna Needham is Priscilla Murphy, Mergermarket editor for Latin America based in Rio de Janeiro

In this episode we discuss the potential impact of the US presidential election on the oil and gas sector. A second Donald Trump administration is generally expected to be friendlier to the sector, with most eyes set on who could be named chair of the Federal Trade Commission, which has recently increased its scrutiny of oil and gas deals. However, a Kamala Harris administration, and its possible restrictions of drilling in federal land, could ironically lead to more oil and gas M&A. Joining Julie-Anna Needham is Serafina Smith, who is a Mergermarket reporter in New York, and Carlos Martinez, who is Canada editor for Mergermarket.