Global Gas Dynamics as Russia Pivots Markets to China

Russia’s energy exports, including its significant natural gas capacity, are geopolitical currency for the country. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia was Europe’s single largest supplier of imported natural gas. But since the global fallout after the invasion, Russia is setting its sights on China as a new market for the country’s gas and as an important ally. 

The proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline would transport Russian natural gas to China via Mongolia. The project is a window into Russia’s energy export strategy and the evolving relationship between China and Russia. 

So what is the strategic importance of Chinese-Russian energy diplomacy? How significant was Russia’s loss of the European gas market? And has Europe left its energy crisis behind?

This week host Jason Bordoff talks with Erica Downs, Akos Losz, and Tatiana Mitrova about their recent CGEP commentary, The Future of the Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline. They discuss the geopolitical significance of the proposed pipeline and the evolving Russia-China relationship. They also cover a range of other topics including the outlook for European energy security and climate goals, China’s energy demand, and the global gas market. 

Erica is a senior research scholar at CGEP focusing on Chinese energy markets and geopolitics. She previously worked as a senior research scientist in the China Studies program of the CNA Corporation.  

Akos is a former senior research associate at CGEP where he specialized in natural gas markets and the role of gas in the energy transition. He recently left CGEP and is returning to the International Energy Agency as its lead natural gas analyst. 

And Tatiana is a research fellow at CGEP. She’s spent her career focusing on Russia and global energy markets. Tatiana previously served as the executive director of the Energy Centre of the Moscow School of Management and the head of research in the Oil and Gas Department in the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. She is also an independent director of SLB, the large energy services firm.

(Note: This conversation was taped prior to President Joe Biden’s July 21, 2024 announcement that he was suspending his campaign for a second term in office.)