Will there be a summer election?

Keir Starmer will have been hoping for a more relaxed week – but he certainly won’t be getting one. He is facing a fresh rebellion over support for children with special educational needs (SEND), which threatens to become welfare 2.0.The plan involves overhauling the SEND system and it’s another case of Labour MPs exclaiming that they didn’t stand on a Labour ticket just to target the most vulnerable in society. The main concern among backbenchers is whether it should be legally enforceable for parents to ensure their children receive bespoke support. Elsewhere, all roads lead to the Treasury, as Neil Kinnock has a solution for increasing Rachel Reeves’s headroom: a wealth tax. It’s the idea that never seems to go away – but will it just increase the number of billionaires fleeing the country?Oscar Edmondson speaks to Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Cast your mind back a year. Labour had just won a storming majority, promising ‘change’ to a stale Tory party that was struggling to govern. But have things got any better?In the magazine this week, Tim Shipman writes the cover piece to mark the occasion of Labour’s first year in government. He takes readers through three chapters: from Sue Gray (freebies scandal and winter fuel cut) to Morgan McSweeney (a degree of professionalisation and dealing with the Donald) to the point at which ‘things fall apart’ (assisted dying, the welfare vote and Reeves’s tears).On the podcast, Tim is joined by The Spectator’s James Heale as well as sketchwriter and long-time Westminster mischief-maker Quentin Letts to go through the events and personalities that have contributed to the dysfunction.Listen for: Tim’s run-in with Lord Hermer at the US Ambassador’s bash; why Jeremy Corbyn’s mooted political party could cause a chasm in the Labour party to rival the one tearing the Conservatives apart; who the targets for the chop might be, should there be a reshuffle; how young members of the Labour party are beginning their charm offensive on Angela Rayner; and why politicians have failed to grasp the banal fundamentals that make a great political performer.Produced by Oscar Edmondson. 

Some sore heads on Coffee House Shots this morning, after last night’s Spectator summer party. But while we were having fun, a drama was brewing in the Labour party after it was finally confirmed that Jeremy Corbyn is starting a new left-wing party... or is he?The news was broken last night by another MP: Zarah Sultana, a long-time admirer of Corbyn. Elected as a Labour MP in 2019, she lost the whip last July for voting to lift the two-child-benefit cap. However, after discussions with figures within the Labour party, it has become apparent that Sultana took many of those involved completely by surprise. She has, in the words of one, ‘completely jumped the gun – no ideas had been properly decided’. It has plunged the new party into a crisis even before its creation. What next for Corbyn’s splinter party?Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and Michael Simmons.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Today Wes Streeting – with the help of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves – announced his 10 year plan for curing the NHS. It’s all about creating a ‘Neighbourhood Health Service’, but what does actually mean in practice? Much of the plan was leaked in advance: first, focusing on preventing disease before it becomes too late; second, improving community healthcare services to help reduce pressure on hospitals; and third, embracing the tech revolution to bring the NHS into the ‘digital age’. One of the glaring omissions is a chapter on how this will all be delivered.Perhaps the most notable part of today’s launch was the decision to include Rachel Reeves – last seen in the Commons looking distraught as the Prime Minister (brutally) failed to back her. He has since thrown his support behind her – but has he made his political bed? Are Starmer and Reeves codependent?Oscar Edmondson speaks to Lucy Dunn and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

There were extraordinary scenes in PMQs today. Rachel Reeves appeared distraught as the Prime Minister failed to guarantee her security when asked by leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch. It was brutal to watch, as the iron chancellor’s lip quivered and a tear rolled down her cheek. In many ways, you can’t blame her – with her headroom narrowing, she will be forced to find a further £5 billion worth of savings to allow for the government’s botched welfare bill.No. 10 has since clarified that Rachel Reeves has not resigned and will not be sacked, stressing that it was ‘personal’ matter that had upset her, ‘which - as you would expect - we are not going to get into. The chancellor will be working out of Downing Street this afternoon’. There is still no clarification on whether that refers to issues in her personal life or her job security. The question remains: is she on borrowed time?James Heale speaks to Michael Simmons and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy.

It’s D-Day for Labour’s welfare reforms. MPs will vote tonight on the party’s watered-down benefits cuts. Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall formally announced Labour’s climbdown yesterday, telling MPs that the government had ‘listened carefully’ and was bringing in ‘positive changes’. Well, that’s one way of putting it.Even so, Labour is braced for a rebellion from dozens of MPs. We’ll know the full number at around 7pm, but it is not expected that there will be the 83 required to overturn the government’s majority. On today’s podcast, we take you inside the debate including some of the most notable speeches and what the fallout could be for the government. Can we expect a reshuffle in the near future? Should Keir Starmer watch his back? Lucy Dunn speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

There have been a number of navel-gazing interviews with the Prime Minister over the weekend. Across thousands and thousands of words, he seems to be saying – if you read between the lines – that he doesn't particularly enjoy being PM.In better news, Labour seems to have quelled the welfare rebellion. Liz Kendall is making a statement in the Commons this afternoon, in which she will outline the concessions that Labour has made on its controversial welfare bill. All in, the cost has spiralled by £3 billion per calendar year – which an already put-upon Chancellor will have to find. Whilst it remains the largest rebellion of this government, the number of rebels has shrunk to around 50. Also on the podcast, Wes Streeting is due to announce his – much-delayed – ten-year plan for the NHS. We are expecting a number of big shifts in Thursday’s announcement, including: moving from analogue to digital, swapping treatment for prevention, and hospital for community. Does Wes have the perspiration for the ailing NHS?James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

As Labour rebels appear to have forced concessions from Keir Starmer over welfare this week, former Conservative MP Steve Baker joins James Heale to reflect on his own time as a rebel, and to provide some advice to Labour MPs. Steve, an MP for 14 years and a minister under Theresa May, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, tells James about the different rebellions he was a part of (from Brexit to Covid), explains how to organise a successful one and reveals how he has lost close friends when he has made the decision to compromise.He also blames Labour’s problems on their ‘bombs not benefits’ approach, explains why the current welfare rebellion demonstrates that ‘the facts of life are Conservative’ and argues that it has been a mistake for the Conservatives not the support Labour’s original approach to reducing the winter fuel allowance.Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Megan McElroy.

It is rare to see the President so visibly frustrated (see The Apprentice, circa 2004), but after Iran and Israel seemingly ignored his ceasefire announcement – and his plea on Truth Social, ‘PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!’ – Donald Trump has come down hard on both sides. In a clip taken this afternoon he exclaimed: ‘These are countries who have been fighting so long and so hard, that they don't know what the f*** they're doing.’ Succinctly put by the President.The exchange of fire could be the expected tit-for-tat seen after the announcement of ceasefires in other global conflicts, but it has dampened the mood at Nato, which world leaders were approaching with cautious optimism, believing the road to de-escalation was clearing. What happens next?Also on the podcast, Keir Starmer is facing a huge rebellion less than a year after coming into power. Overnight, scores of Starmer’s MPs have signed a reasoned amendment to the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill. This would effectively kill the bill at its second reading in the Commons on Tuesday. Can he de-escalate the precarious domestic situation?Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and Michael Stephens.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

It’s a historic day in Westminster, where MPs will vote on the assisted dying bill – the outcome of which could have huge repercussions for healthcare, politics and the courts. It’s such a significant day, in fact, that we’ll be recording another podcast just after the result is announced at around 2.30 p.m.Kim Leadbeater’s camp remains confident that the bill will pass, although many anticipate a much closer vote than at the second reading. This is in no small part due to high-profile members of the party being opposed to the legislation, and Keir Starmer remaining characteristically evasive on the issue. The backdrop, of course, is the resignation of a government whip, Vicky Foxcroft – though over a separate issue: Liz Kendall's plan to cut personal independence payments. Could this be part of a coordinated rebellion? And how will the assisted dying bill – brought by a Labour MP and tacitly backed by a Labour PM– define Labour’s first year?Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.