China is likely to announce additional stimulus policies, including extra fiscal support, targeted monetary easing and stronger consumption-boosting initiatives, to put its economic growth on a more solid footing, as the country's top leadership usually convenes a high-level meeting centered on economic issues around the end of April, analysts said.
分析人士表示，中国有望宣布更多刺激政策，包括增加财政支持、定向货币宽松以及更有力的促消费举措，以进一步夯实经济增长基础。中国最高领导层通常会在4月底左右召开一次以经济问题为中心的高层会议。
The tone-setting meeting would be an important occasion for China's policymakers to reassess the fast-paced developments in the trade war initiated by Washington against Beijing over the past month, and to formulate offsetting policies in response, they added.
他们补充道，此次定调会议将成为中国政策制定者重新评估过去一个月华盛顿对北京发起的贸易战快速发展态势，并制定相应政策的重要契机。
"While the 5.4 percent GDP growth rate in the first quarter is a good start, key indicators like the consumer price index and producer price index suggest that weakness in domestic demand still persists," said Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities.
国盛证券首席经济学家熊园表示：“虽然第一季度GDP增长率达到5.4%是一个良好的开端，但消费者价格指数和生产者价格指数等关键指标表明，国内需求仍然疲软。”
The impact of the tariffs by the United States, which is expected to materialize more visibly in the second quarter, further underscores the urgency for policymakers to ramp up supportive efforts, Xiong said.
熊园表示，预计美国加征关税的影响将在第二季度更加明显，这进一步凸显了政策制定者加大支持力度的紧迫性。
China's top leadership has suggested on various occasions that the country has ample capability to roll out new policy measures as needed, to address the rising uncertainties in the external environment.
中国高层领导已多次表示，中国有足够的能力根据需要推出新的政策措施，以应对外部环境中日益增加的不确定性。
Premier Li Qiang said on April 17 during a study session held by the State Council—the country's Cabinet—that at critical moments, the government must act swiftly to deploy policy tools across various fronts in order to generate positive market expectations.
4月17日，李强总理在国务院举行的一次学习会议上表示，在关键时刻，政府必须迅速行动，综合运用各种政策工具，以创造积极的市场预期。
Analysts expect that the end-April meeting is poised to introduce significant fiscal stimulus measures, potentially exceeding 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) in scale.
分析人士预计，4月底的会议将推出重大财政刺激措施，规模可能超过1万亿元人民币（1370亿美元）。
"We expect incremental funds of 1.5 trillion yuan, or 1 percent of GDP, on top of the budget approved earlier this year. End-demand, especially consumption, should be more a focus than investment this time, given the nature of the tariff shock," Citi analysts said in a report on Monday.
花旗分析师周一在一份报告中表示：“我们预计，在年初批准的预算基础上，新增资金将达到1.5万亿元人民币，占GDP的1%。鉴于关税冲击的性质，此次应该更多地关注终端需求，尤其是消费，而非投资。”
China Galaxy Securities also said on Sunday in a report that the size of the new fiscal stimulus measures could be around 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan, with a particular emphasis on further strengthening policies to stimulate consumption.
中国银河证券周日也在一份报告中表示，新的财政刺激措施规模可能在1.5万亿至2万亿元人民币左右，尤其强调进一步加强刺激消费的政策。
In particular, with the goal of better offsetting the slowdown in external demand, the overall fiscal budget for consumption-boosting measures this year might be increased from the initially planned 300 billion yuan to a range of 700 billion yuan to 1 trillion yuan, said Feng Lin, executive director of the research and development department at Golden Credit Rating International.
东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司研究发展部执行总监冯琳表示，为了更好地抵消外部需求放缓的影响，今年用于刺激消费措施的财政总预算可能会从最初计划的3000亿元人民币增加到7000亿至1万亿元人民币。
China's annual exports to the US have been around $500 billion in recent years, which is equivalent to 7-8 percent of the China's domestic consumer goods consumption, according to Feng.
冯琳表示，近年来，中国对美年出口额约为5000亿美元，相当于中国国内消费品消费的7%至8%。
"This means that as long as domestic consumption is effectively stimulated, China is capable of absorbing the decline in exports to the US. Before the pandemic, the normal growth rate of the country's total retail sales of consumer goods was between 8 and 9 percent," Feng said.
“这意味着，只要有效刺激国内消费，中国就有能力消化对美出口的下滑。疫情爆发前，中国社会消费品零售总额的正常增长率在8%到9%之间，”冯琳表示。
Notably, any major fiscal policy in China requires going through legislative procedures. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, which has the power to approve budget adjustments, is scheduled to meet in Beijing from Sunday to Wednesday.
值得注意的是，中国任何重大财政政策都需要经过立法程序。拥有预算调整审批权的全国人大常委会计划于本周日到周三在北京召开会议。
"If any fiscal resolution indicated by the upcoming meeting is approved by the NPC Standing Committee, it would buttress Beijing's determination to achieve growth despite the trade hardships," Citi said.
花旗银行表示：“如果即将召开的全国人大常委会会议中提出的任何财政决议获得批准，这将坚定中国政府在贸易摩擦中实现增长的决心。”
Even if the upcoming meeting and the NPC Standing Committee session greenlight new fiscal stimulus measures, analysts said the details and timeline of the rollouts would be determined in a flexible manner, depending on the evolving economic dynamics.
分析人士表示，即使即将召开的全国人大常委会会议和全国人大常委会会议批准新的财政刺激措施，这些措施的具体细节和时间表也将根据不断变化的经济形势灵活确定。
For the previously announced government bonds in March, the country is expected to accelerate their issuance in the second quarter, and expedite the utilization of these funds to support concrete projects, said Zhang Jun, chief economist at China Galaxy Securities.
中国银河证券首席经济学家章俊表示，对于此前宣布的3月份国债发行，预计国家将在第二季度加快发行，并加快资金用于支持具体项目。
The anticipated introduction of the extra fiscal stimulus measures and accelerated implementation of the existing ones would "create a window of opportunity" for a corresponding level of liquidity support from the monetary policy side, Zhang said.
章俊表示，预期中的额外财政刺激措施将出台，现有措施也将加快落实，这将为货币政策层面提供相应流动性支持“创造机会窗口”。
China's central bank is expected to employ a combination of both quantitative and structural policy tools, with a reserve requirement ratio cut of around 20 basis points likely to be implemented on the heels of the end-April meeting, followed by a potential interest rate reduction around June. The government is also expected to introduce a range of structural monetary policies aimed at providing targeted relief to the foreign trade sector, as well as bolstering consumer demand and technological innovation, Zhang added.
预计中国央行将结合运用数量型和结构性政策工具，在4月底会议后可能实施约20个基点的降准，随后可能在6月左右再度降息。章俊补充道，预计政府还将推出一系列结构性货币政策，旨在为外贸行业提供定向纾困，并提振消费需求和技术创新。
Citi said in its report that, "Finding patience to play the long game, the end-April meeting will stick to the policy framework of 'high-quality development' and will not take an all-out approach."
花旗在其报告中表示：“4月底的会议将秉持耐心，着眼长远，坚持‘高质量发展’的政策框架，不会采取全面举措。”
stimulus
/ˈstɪmjələs/
n.刺激（措施）；促进因素
reassess
/ˌriːəˈses/
v.重新评估；重新考虑
buttress
/ˈbʌtrəs/
v.支持；加强
liquidity
/lɪˈkwɪdəti/
n.流动性；资产变现能力
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