A Shocking U.S. Attack and "a Transition Without a Transition" in Venezuela

After midnight on January 3, 2026, the Trump administration bombed Venezuelan military sites and extracted the country's authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro. President Trump declared that the United States is now "running" Venezuela and emphasized access to its oil reserves. The rest of Maduro's government—the key political figures, the generals, the intelligence chiefs, the colectivos—remains in place. In this episode recorded January 6, as shockwaves from this historic intervention spread across the hemisphere, host Adam Isacson speaks with WOLA President Carolina Jiménez Sandoval and Venezuela Program Director Laura Dib about what just happened, the serious risks ahead, and what comes next. The conversation covers: The immediate humanitarian situation: continued repression, a looming economic crisis, and uncertainty about who is actually in charge. Why Washington appears ready to work with Chavismo—the same authoritarian structure it claimed to oppose—while sidelining Venezuela's democratic opposition. The dangerous precedent this sets for U.S. relations with the rest of Latin America, where the Trump administration's new security strategy presents governments with a stark choice between alignment with Washington or being labeled a threat. What solidarity with the Venezuelan people actually looks like when their agency has been pushed aside by both their own government and the intervening power. "International law exists precisely to limit the naked power of states," Jiménez Sandoval says. "To have one of those superpowers, under President Trump, disregard those basic rules of engagement is very alarming." "Human rights standards provide us with lenses that are universal," Dib adds. "That means going beyond condemnation—thinking about what can be done to stand in solidarity with Venezuelans, reclaiming their agency, and providing support to democratic forces."

In this series from the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), prominent decision-makers from across the Americas—those who have been at the heart of democratic governance—share personal reflections and insights on the meaning, challenges, and future of democracy in the region. In each episode, members of the WOLA team sit down with a current or former political figure from the Americas to explore democracy through different lenses: what it means to them, the challenges it faces, and why it remains essential today. Each conversation pairs democracy with a new dimension—transition, justice, leadership, and beyond.  

WOLA presents a new episode about El Salvador, coinciding with our awarding of our 2025 Human Rights Award to MOVIR, El Salvador's Movement of Victims of the Regime, which supports victims and families of arbitrary detentions carried out by President Nayib Bukele's government. In this conversation, Ricardo Valencia, assistant professor of public relations in the Department of Communications at California State University, Fullerton, explains why the current popularity of El Salvador's authoritarian president rests on a surprisingly fragile foundation. Dr. Valencia, a former journalist in El Salvador and an expert on political and activist communications, explains that Bukele is facing several challenges to his rule that even a slick propaganda operation cannot paper over. These include a lackluster economy, mainstream voters' discomfort with the regime's celebrations of cruelty and imprisonment, Bukele's relations with just one political party in the United States, the loss of emigration as an "escape valve" and a likely increase in deportations, and discontent with corruption. While Dr. Valencia doesn't foresee Bukele's downfall as imminent—he is very popular because of security gains and effective communications—the Salvadoran leader, he argues, is planting the seeds for a sharp drop in popularity. In the meantime, Valencia calls for constant, energetic accompaniment and defense of El Salvador's beleaguered civil society, independent media, and others fighting for democratic institutions and rights.

A special episode as part of WOLA's 2025 Human Rights Awards Month President Nayib Bukele's government has jailed nearly 2 percent of El Salvador's entire population—the highest incarceration rate in the world. Still, because violence has dropped sharply, political figures across Latin America speak about emulating Bukele's "security model." But behind the videos of mega-prisons and tweets about plunging homicide rates lies a darker, less sustainable reality. In this WOLA Podcast episode, Adam Isacson speaks with Beatriz Magaloni (personal site / Stanford site), a political scientist at Stanford University and co-author (with Alberto Díaz-Cayeros) of a Foreign Affairs article published September 11, 2025: "Does the Bukele Model Have a Future?" Their conversation reveals what Magaloni calls "a system of state terror and resource extraction," and explores why El Salvador's experiment in mass incarceration may ultimately collapse under its own weight. In fieldwork conducted since last year, Dr. Magaloni interviewed the families of hundreds of victims of the security crackdown, many aided by MOVIR, the Movement of Victims of the Regime, which WOLA is honoring with its 2025 Human Rights Award. "Our crime is to be poor," families told her. Police and soldiers face monthly arrest quotas, Magaloni explains. Civilians can denounce neighbors by calling a hotline—and are sometimes paid $300 bounties. Poor Salvadorans, many in communities with little or no gang presence, end up seized and jailed in prisons like Izalco and Mariona, where conditions amount to systematic torture. This, Magaloni says, has turned the carceral system into "a machine that milks the poor." Bukele's ongoing emergency decrees, renewed 42 times, now serve dual purposes: silencing critics and funding repression. Despite its popularity, Bukele's "model" rests on brittle foundations. Poverty remains over 30 percent and is not declining. The economy depends on remittances from abroad, not job creation. Corruption persists, while transparency laws and data access have been erased. Bukele's control of the media, polished propaganda videos, and rapid-fire social-media presence drown out criticism. Civil society's challenge, Magaloni argues, is to build equally powerful counter-narratives that humanize victims and expose hidden abuses. Drawing on decades of field research in Mexico and Brazil, Magaloni concedes that effective citizen security sometimes does require force, but points to past experiments that achieved short-term safety without repression, human rights abuse, or democratic dismantlement. These include efforts like community-based policing in Medellín or Rio de Janeiro's early UPPs, which showed progress before political will and funding eroded. Bukele "could have stopped six months in, admitted mistakes, freed the innocent—and he'd have deserved credit," Magaloni says. "Instead, he institutionalized terror."  

Since late August, the Trump administration has sent a flotilla of U.S. warships to the southern Caribbean, in the largest naval display in the region in decades. On September 2, a U.S. drone strike sank a small boat near the Venezuelan coast, killing as many as eleven civilians. Administration officials allege the vessel carried cocaine, but have presented no evidence. In this WOLA Podcast episode, Adam Isacson speaks with Laura Dib, Director for Venezuela, and John Walsh, Director for Drug Policy and the Andes, about the shockwaves from this escalation, both region-wide and especially in Venezuela. An Extreme New Military Stance: Seven warships and up to 7,000 personnel now patrol Caribbean waters near Venezuela. A lethal strike on September 2 marks, as Walsh calls it, "a radical departure" from decades of U.S. maritime drug-interdiction practice. Serious Legal and Human-Rights Implications: U.S. law authorizes interdiction of illegal drugs, not summary execution. "There's a word in English for an act like this," Walsh warns. "That word is murder." International law allows the use of force only in self-defense or with the approval of the UN Security Council—neither applies. U.S. law and policy, too, prohibit the use of lethal force on civilians without a self-defense justification. That is so even if those civilians are labeled "terrorists," if there is no link to the September 11, 2001 attacks, and no explicit congressional authorization for the use of force. The Venezuela Context: After fraudulent July 2024 elections, Nicolás Maduro governs without legitimacy, with widespread persecution and what Dib calls "reasons to believe that crimes against humanity have been committed." There is also a clear connection between large-scale corruption and the complex humanitarian emergency in which the country is immersed. Criminal economies flourish in a regime of state-embedded drug trafficking, but Venezuela is not the busiest route for U.S.-bound cocaine. The Reality of the U.S. Drug Overdose Crisis: The U.S. overdose emergency is driven by fentanyl and other opioids "that come almost entirely through Mexico," Walsh notes, "with zero to do with anything in the Caribbean." At least as of 2022, 80 percent of cocaine also transits the Pacific route via Central America and Mexico, not the Caribbean. U.S. Political Calculations: Trump administration officials boast of the strike and hint at more. They frame Venezuela as a "narco-terror" threat while simultaneously maintaining oil licenses, cooperating on deportations, and even meeting with Maduro earlier this year. Walsh warns the move feeds a domestic narrative of an "invasion" of migrants and organized crime groups to justify domestic use of emergency powers. Regional and Global Fallout: Some Latin American governments show "striking silence," Dib observes, torn between defending sovereignty and condemning Maduro's abuses. The OAS and UN have issued only mild calls for de-escalation, reflecting both U.S. pressure and Venezuela's authoritarian reality. Both guests outline alternatives: Cut the Financial Lifelines: Dib calls for re-establishing the Justice Department's Kleptocracy Asset Recovery Initiative to seize billions in stolen Venezuelan assets. The U.S. government should coordinate more closely with Europe and Latin America to track the proceeds of corruption and undermine the economic pillar of support for authoritarian governments with connections to illicit economies. Support Civil Society and Rule of Law: It is urgent to restore programming previously administered by USAID that sustains independent journalism and human-rights groups now operating under threat, and to use universal-jurisdiction statutes to prosecute Venezuelan officials responsible for torture or other grave abuses. Address U.S. Drug Demand at Home: Expand and strengthen harm-reduction and treatment—naloxone distribution, methadone access—that have begun to lower overdose deaths. Reject the false promise of militarized interdiction that decades of evidence show to be ineffective and costly. As Isacson sums up, "From overdose prevention to supporting civil society in Venezuela to curbing illicit financial flows…the administration is taking key tools out of its toolbox" while swinging a military sledgehammer. Other resources from WOLA: September 8 - Q&A: Tension between Venezuela and the United States: between truth and theater September 3 - Lethal U.S. military strike on alleged drug traffickers sets a dangerous precedent in the "war on drugs" August 14 - One year since the presidential election of July 28, 2024: the Venezuelan crisis August 13 - Five Reasons Why Trump's Anti-Cartel Military Plan Will Fail

Since January, the United States' migrant detention and deportation system, which was already troubled, has become increasingly opaque. Access to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities is restricted, internal oversight agencies have been hollowed out, and credible information about conditions inside is scarce. Yet reports that have emerged, some from those who have recently been deported, tell a troubling story echoing the darkest moments of recent U.S. immigration history. In late July and early August, researchers from WOLA and the Women's Refugee Commission (WRC) set out to pierce this "black box" by visiting cities in Honduras, Guatemala, and Mexico that are key deportation hubs. There, they interviewed deported migrants, service providers, advocates, experts, and government officials to learn what they are hearing about conditions in U.S. detention. The findings are disturbing. They point to a resurgence of family separations, cruel treatment, miserable, unhealthy conditions, and deportation processes that violate migrants' rights and dignity. With transparency mechanisms dismantled, these abuses are happening out of public view. In this episode, host Adam Isacson talks with two colleagues from WRC with whom he traveled: Zain Lakhani, WRC's director of Migrant Rights and Justice. Diana Flórez, a consultant to WRC, an attorney and expert on gender, transitional justice, development, and peacebuilding. During their travels, Isacson, Lakhani, and Flórez shared photos and initial findings in four "dispatches" published to our organizations' websites, from Honduras, Guatemala, Tapachula, and Ciudad Juárez. We heard consistent accounts of: Family separations: A larger number than expected of parents deported without U.S. citizen children, often without being given the choice of being removed with them. The crisis is approaching the scale of the "zero tolerance" family separations that shocked the nation in 2018. Inhumane conditions: Overcrowded cells, lack of medical care, and verbal and physical abuse by guards. Threats to the health of pregnant and lactating women and their children: Insufficient and poor-quality food, difficulty in obtaining medical attention, and even being forced to sleep on floors. (The podcast refers to a July 30 report on abuse in detention, especially of pregnant women and children, by the office of Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Georgia).) Targeting of vulnerable populations: Harassment of LGBTQ+ individuals, especially trans individuals who are now detained with the gender to which they were assigned at birth. As Lakhani notes, "Historically… we were able to enter detention centers and visit them and speak with migrants," but "now we're seeing the deliberate creation of a black box." We hope that the WOLA–WRC delegation's findings will guide future, more intensive on-the-ground research enabling advocates to refer egregious abuses requiring legal action, build a rigorous archive of known cases, and inform public opinion and policymakers.  

Nearly three years into President Gustavo Petro's term, his flagship "Total Peace" initiative is faltering. On this episode of the WOLA Podcast, Gimena Sánchez-Garzoli, WOLA's Director for the Andes, provides a sweeping overview of Colombia's peace and security reality.

A Special Pride Month Episode This special Pride Month episode brings together the voices of six LGBTIQ+ activists from across Latin America—Mexico, Honduras, Colombia, Venezuela, and El Salvador—who share their experiences as leaders in the fight for equality and justice. Through their stories, we explore what Pride means in contexts of resistance, the state of LGBTIQ+ rights across the region, and the ongoing work to build more inclusive societies.  

This special Pride Month episode brings together the voices of six LGBTIQ+ activists from across Latin America—Mexico, Honduras, Colombia, Venezuela, and El Salvador—who share their experiences as leaders in the fight for equality and justice. Through their stories, we explore what Pride means in contexts of resistance, the state of LGBTIQ+ rights across the region, and the ongoing work to build more inclusive societies.

In the wake of escalating immigration enforcement targeting vulnerable migrant communities, this Pride Month episode brings essential perspective from the frontlines. We sit down with Brigitte Baltazar Lujano, a trans woman who herself experienced deportation and now leads critical advocacy and service work for LGBTQ+ migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border with the Tijuana and San Diego-based organization Al Otro Lado.