Volatility Views 663: 2026 VIX Outlook — Face Ripper Trades & Crystal Ball Winners

It is a New Year in the volatility markets! Host Mark Longo is joined by "Dr. VIX" Russell Rhoads and Mark Sebastian of Option Pit to break down a wild 2025 and peer into the crystal ball for 2026. From the "tariff tantrums" and "taper tantrums" of last year to the rise of 0DTE options and the recent "face ripper" ratio spreads, the team analyzes why the VIX median stayed elevated even without major explosive events. Plus, the moment you've been waiting for: we crown the 2025 Crystal Ball Hall of Fame winners and launch the official 2026 contest! What's Inside this Episode: The Volatility Review: A deep dive into the 2025 "Mad Vol Year." Why was the median VIX so much higher than normal? The 0DTE Impact: How zero-day options are reshaping the term structure and long-dated premium. VIX Face Rippers: Russell breaks down the bizarre ratio call spreads hitting the tape and what they signal for January and April volatility. The Crystal Ball Hall of Fame: We announce the four winners who nailed the 14.95 year-end VIX close within 0.1pt. 2026 Predictions: The crew places their bets for the coming year. Can we see a sub-10 VIX, or will the midterms push us toward 17.76? Key Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction and "Happy New Year" Cutoff Debate [07:15] 2025 Year-in-Review: The high of 60 and the 14-handle reality [15:40] The "Tariff Tantrum" and Fixed Income Volatility [22:10] Term Structure Analysis: Why the current curve is "poison" for ETP longs [31:45] Russell's Weekly Rundown: Explaining the "Face Ripper" trades [45:10] Crystal Ball 2025 Winners Revealed [52:30] 2026 Official Predictions & Closing Levels Connect with the Guest Experts: Russell Rhoads: Follow on X @RussellRhoads Mark Sebastian: Visit OptionPit.com or follow on X @OptionPit Support the Network: This episode is brought to you by Tastytrade. See why Investopedia named them the best broker for options in 2024. Visit tastytrade.com/podcasts to learn more.

Happy New Year, Vol Maniacs! Mark Longo kicks off 2026 by welcoming Jim Carroll (The Vixologist) to the first Volatility Views of the year. Jim helps us close the books on 2025. From the "Tariff Tantrum" to the birth of the proprietary "VIX Mix," we break down the trends, trades, and traps that defined the volatility landscape over the last 12 months. Volatility Review: The 2025 Autopsy The Tariff Tantrum: Why April 2025 became the apex of volatility for the year, sending VIX cash to an intraday high near 60. VIX Cash Highlights: A look back at the 17.93 start in January and the contentiousness of the year-end 14.95 close. The "VIX Mix" Debrief: Jim Carroll breaks down the first full year of his 17-component composite indicator. Realized Volatility: Why 2025 saw a wider range of realized vol than 2024, yet remained "well-behaved" compared to 2022 or 2020. Credit Market Canaries: Why the Move Index and corporate bond behavior were the secret drummers for equity volatility this year. Trades & Trends: Where Money Lived (And Died) The 15 Put Trap: Why the VIX 15 put strike was the ultimate "scratch-off ticket" that never paid off for retail traders. The 47.5 Call Mystery: Analyzing the massive, recurring upside rolls that dominated the tape all year. Capital Efficiency: A look at the bizarre VIX 200 put spreads and the shifting of institutional volume from futures into options. The Vol Fade Game: Performance reviews of SVXY, VXX, and the opportunity to scoop SVX during the April dip. The Crystal Ball: Predictions for 2026 The team kicks off the new year's prediction game. Will 2026 be the year of the 23.00 VIX?   Resources & Links Follow Jim Carroll: Twitter/X: @vixologist Brokerage Spotlight: tastytrade.com/podcasts Connect with the Network Twitter/X: @Options Web: TheOptionsInsider.com Questions: [email protected]

In the final Volatility Views of 2025, host Mark Longo is joined by Russell Rhoads (Dr. VIX) and Michael Listman (UVXY Trader) to dissect a wild year in the markets. From the "Santa Claus Rally" to the crushing of the VIX, we break down what traders need to know heading into 2026. In This Episode: Volatility Review: A look at the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs and the recent "volatility execution." Why did the Santa Rally take so long to arrive? UVXY Deep Dive: Michael Listman breaks down the UVXY reverse split mechanics. We discuss why liquidity is the best argument for UVXY and how to manage the "beta slippage" game. The Pairs Trade: Exploring the strategy of pairing UVXY vs. SVXY (or SVIX) to capture slippage while managing directional exposure. VIX Term Structure: Why the current curve is "steep" and what a 5-point premium in February futures says about 2026 market expectations. VIX Options Flow: Analyzing the "Jan 17 Puts" and the mysterious ongoing activity in the VIX 200 strike puts. The Crystal Ball: The team places their final VIX cash predictions for the first week of January 2026. Key Discussion Points: The "VIX Wizard": Why volatility arrives precisely when it means to (and how to monetize puts before they expire). Reverse Split Strategies: Does a 1-for-5 or 1-for-10 split actually change the trade? The "Weekend Trade": Russell's strategy for holding UVIX/UVXY over the weekend to catch volatility events. Resources & Links: Russell Rhoads (Dr. VIX): Follow him on X/Twitter @RussellRhoads . Michael Listman: Follow him on X @UVXYTrader or visit UVXY.pro . Options Insider Pro: Get the Pro Trading Crate and join the Vol Death Match at TheOptionsInsider.com/Pro . TastyTrade: Check out advanced tools for options and futures at TastyTrade.com/podcasts .

In this episode of Volatility Views on the Options Insider Radio Network, Mark Longo and Dr. Russell Rhoads dive into the shifting landscape of volatility as the final full trading week of 2025 comes to a close. While much of the market is heading into holiday "hibernation," geopolitical tensions are lighting up the commodity space. The team breaks down why Energy CVOL is pinning the needle to the upside while Treasury and FX volatility are being "taken to the woodshed." Key Topics Covered: The Venezuela "Brouhaha": How intensified pressure and crude embargoes are reviving Energy CVOL (WTI) and driving it to weekly highs. Commodity Volatility Split: A deep dive into the aggregate CVOL levels for Metals, Ags, and the broader Commodities complex vs. the dying volatility in Fixed Income. The VIX Term Structure: Analyzing the current curve and what the "post-Fed" environment means for the remainder of 2025. Vol Products in Focus: Performance updates and trade analysis for SVXY, UVXY, and VIX futures. Looking Ahead to 2026: Anticipated market movers and volatility catalysts for the new year. Listener Mailbag: Russell and Mark answer your questions regarding volatility products and specific trading strategies.  

In this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo (The Options Insider), Russell Rhoads (Kelley School of Business at Indiana University), and Andrew Giovinazzi (The Option Pit) dive deep into the week's market volatility. They begin with an in-depth analysis of the notable Fed cut announcement and its immediate market implications. Key Volatility Trading Insights: VIX Products & Options: Detailed breakdown of VIX options behavior, volatility spikes, and significant trades. Fed Reaction: Analyzing insights from Fed officials and the overall market reaction to the rate decision. ETPs Explored: Intricacies of volatility ETPs, including $SVIX and $UVXY performance and strategy. Strategies & Predictions: In-depth trading strategies and predictions for the upcoming week in the volatility market.

In this episode of 'Volatility Views,' the market's premier volatility podcast, we tackle the biggest questions for volatility traders: Are anticipated interest rate cuts about to crush the entire VIX term structure? This episode is hosted by Mark Longo (The Options Insider) and joined by Mark Sebastian (The Option Pit) and Dr. Russell Rhoads (Indiana University Kelley School of Business). We break down recent VIX options flow, examine crucial shifts in the volatility curve, and offer a forward-looking forecast for the Cboe VIX Index in the coming week. 📈 Episode Highlights & Volatility Trading Strategy VIX Curve Alert: Dissecting the major shifts in the VIX term structure and how short-term contracts are reacting to forward-looking interest rate expectations. VIX Weekly Options: A detailed breakdown of notable and unusual flow in VIX weekly options and their impact on daily volatility. Inverse Volatility Risks: Updates and analysis of inverse volatility ETPs and VIX ETPs, with a deep dive into the trading behavior and volume patterns of UVXY following its recent reverse split. The VIX Forecast: The panelists' final VIX market prediction for the upcoming week and actionable strategies for VIX traders.

HOST: Mark Longo, The Options Insider CO-HOST: Dr. Russell Rhoads, Indiana University Kelley School of Business In this episode, the hosts dive into the current state of volatility in the market, providing in-depth analysis and trading strategies. The discussion includes the recent movements in VIX futures, the impact of economic announcements, and unconventional strategies like weekly put sales. They also cover notable VIX options trades and the potential effects of upcoming events on market volatility. Plus, they end the show guessing where VIX will be in two weeks in our crystal ball segment.

HOST: Mark Longo, The Options Insider CO-HOST: Russell Rhoads, Indiana University Kelley School of Business CO-HOST: Mark Sebastian, The Option Pit GUEST: Jeff Nguyen, Cboe Global Markets On this episode, we explore the latest in the world of volatility trading. Jeff Nguyen joins us to explain the Cboe's newly launched VIX Decomposition Tool that analyzes VIX moves through various contributing factors. The show also delves into the past week's volatility trends, notable options trades, and the impact of zero DTE strategies on the current market. The team discusses the state of volatility ETPs and how they are performing under current market conditions.

HOST: Mark Longo, The Options Insider CO-HOST: Russell Rhoads, Indiana University Kelley School of Business CO-HOST: Andrew Giovinazzi, The Option Pit GUEST: Bill Luby, @VIXandMore   On this episode, the discussion revolves around the recent spike in volatility and its implications for traders. They also explore AI's role in market valuation, with differing opinions on its long-term impact. Other highlights include analysis of the VIX term structure, the surge in VIX futures trading, and notable VIX options trades. Additionally, Bill Luby shares insights into trading VXX, and listeners get the latest updates on other popular volatility ETPs. The episode concludes with the panelists' predictions for VIX levels in the upcoming week.

HOST: Mark Longo, The Options Insider Media Group CO-HOST: Mark Sebastian, The Option Pit CO-HOST: Russell Rhoads, Indiana University Kelley School of Business With an appearance by Brian Overby, Options Playbook Radio!   In this Halloween-themed episode of Volatility Views, host Mark Longo is joined by regular contributors Mark Sebastian and Russell Rhoads, as well as a special guest appearance by Brian Overby. The discussion focuses on the nuances of volatility trading, touching on the performance and volume of vol-related ETFs like UVIX and SVXY, the impact of lofty P/E ratios on market sentiment, and the effects of the latest Fed actions. The show also delves into listener questions, weekly reviews of significant volatility trades, and the dynamics of overwriting trades. The episode concludes with predictions for VIX levels for the upcoming week.