Oakworth's Strategic Market Outlook: April 9, 2025

This week, Democratic voters in New York elected Zohran Mamdani to be their candidate for the mayoral election in November. Perhaps not surprisingly, the 33-year old’s popularity with the younger generations helped to catapult to victory. However, his political platform and campaign processes are giving the traditional elites the fits. Rent freezes? Free public transportation. Free childcare? Government-run grocery stores? Higher taxes for corporations and the so-called 1%? A $30/hour minimum wage? Regulating delivery apps? It is very aggressive and more than a little bit idealistic. The question remains: why do these economically questionable positions appeal to younger voters?   In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent mayoral primaries in New York, and analyze the winner’s appeal to younger voters. The title is an allusion to a famous headline in New York during the Ford Administration….when Gerald Ford essentially blocked a financial bailout for the city.

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee met, and didn’t cut the overnight rate. This even though its economic projections were far from robust. Somewhat frustratingly, the Fed reported it thinks the long-term growth rate for the US economy is around 1.8%. This is well less than the historical average, and would cause our deficit to balloon even more than forecast. Further, the President’s tariff wars appear to have the Fed spooked, as it now thinks inflation will hit 3.0% by the end of the year. All told, the Fed meeting this week was something of a downer. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent Fed meeting and how no one should be fired up about it.

Legend has it the Roman Emperor Nero played his fiddle while Rome burned down around him. These days, domestic investors keep throwing money into the financial markets despite troubling headlines both here and abroad. But why is the American investing public apparently ignoring the world around it? Is it a change in risk tolerance? Easier access to retail investment products? Recent past performance? Does the money simply have to go somewhere? Or are we fiddling while the world burns down around us? On this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent curious rally in the US stock market and the potential causes for it.  

The Administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) has had caused a lot of wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth. How are we going to pay for all of these tax cuts? Where have the tax credits gone? What do you mean the states can’t regulate Artificial Intelligence? However, the hullabaloo misses the point: without a meaningful pickup in economic activity and reduction in Federal expenditures, there is no hope to get the budget deficits under control. Is there anything to be done? Interestingly enough, perhaps. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the OBBB and what it means for the US.  

This week, the Court of International Trade sort of put the kibosh on the Administration’s blanket, reciprocal tariffs. Also, Elon Musk made his exit from the apparently ineffectual DOGE, but not before taking a few passing shots. Also, while the House passed the President’s “big beautiful bill,” a lot of people are wondering how Washington can possibly pay for it. All told, from the outside looking in, it wasn’t a very good week for the President. So, where does he go from here? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the Administration’s trying week and where it must go from here.

This week, the stock markets rallied sharply on news the Administration was going to cut the tariff rate with China from 145% to 30%. However, should investors be enthused with constantly shifting economic policies? Particularly those like tariffs, which add costs to both the importer and the consumer? Further, with the economy already cooling slightly, is now the right time to play hard ball with our trading partners? Basically, what is the real cause for celebration?  In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the extreme reaction the markets had to the reduction in tariff rates with the Chinese. 

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently announced the U.S. economy shrank during the 1st quarter of 2025. Obviously, that is not good news. However, is it the bad news the headline would imply? Are we standing at the edge of the economic cliff? Or will the UJS economy be able to take a step back of the abyss? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and whether the U.S. is headed for a deep recession. So, is the sky really falling?

After a few days of positive returns, it seems the market panic has subsided. So, is now a good buying opportunity? Is it safe to get back into the investing waters? Or would it be prudent to wait a while? After all, the threat of tariffs are still very real and very possible. The economy appears a little weaker than it was in 2024, consumer confidence has collapsed and corporate America doesn’t have a good idea what the remainder of the year will bring. If that sounds like a good time to invest to you, have at it. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent market volatility and ask a very basic question: is now the time to buy?

One of the Administration’s primary goals with the tariff wars seems to be onshoring production jobs. Intuitively, that makes sense. More jobs are almost always better than fewer. However, are these the types of jobs the American economy actually needs and the American workers actually wants? Further, what is the likelihood companies make drastic shifts in their production facilities, understanding President Trump will be gone in less than 4 years? These are great questions which need real answers. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement, John Norris and special guest David McGrath discuss the potential for more manufacturing jobs in the economy and wonder whether they are worth the pain.

We have all heard the worst-case scenarios, and everyone is hoping for the best-case ones. However, what is the probable case scenario?  Oakworth Capital’s Investment Committee discusses the recent market volatility and likely outcomes.