Can We Ever Trust the Polls Again?

Hello!Today we brought back our polling experts Ben Recht, a professor of computer science at UC Berkeley and Leif Weatherby, a professor of German and the founding director of the Digital Theory Lab at NYU. We set out to really talk about one question: Can we trust these polls and were they right or wrong? Then we talked a lot about how campaigns think and how our data driven society leads to a bunch of very odd and almost random decisions but also very little reflection. Luddites rejoice, this one is for you.Also, as always, we would really appreciate any help to keep the lights on. We give away this podcast for free every week and can only keep doing it with continued donations from you. It’s just five dollars a month, which is about what you pay in delivery fees every time you order Chipotle from DoorDash or come up with some other five dollar purchase that fits in here. We do appreciate it and thank you so much to everyone who subscribed last week! This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit goodbye.substack.com/subscribe

Hello! Today we brought back our polling experts Ben Recht, a professor of computer science at UC Berkeley and Leif Weatherby, a professor of German and the founding director of the Digital Theory Lab at NYU. We set out to really talk about one question: Can we trust these polls and were they right or wrong? Then we talked a lot about how campaigns think and how our data driven society leads to a bunch of very odd and almost random decisions but also very little reflection. Luddites rejoice, this one is for you. Also, as always, we would really appreciate any help to keep the lights on. We give away this podcast for free every week and can only keep doing it with continued donations from you. It’s just five dollars a month, which is about what you pay in delivery fees every time you order Chipotle from DoorDash or come up with some other five dollar purchase that fits in here. We do appreciate it and thank you so much to everyone who subscribed last week! This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit goodbye.substack.com/subscribe

Tyler and Jay talk about the distressing results with Trump at 92% to win on the needle, what might happen for the Democrats in the future, and spend a whole lot of time talking about the "minority vote" and what went wrong. We promise we do very little "I told you so" in this episode. Honestly, it's about as morose as you'll ever hear us as we both go through what we think the next four years will look like. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit goodbye.substack.com/subscribe

Hello!We talk about the Trump rally in New York City, Kamala’s closing statements and why, despite months of criticizing the Harris/Walz campaign and living in deep blue states, we both ended up voting for it. We also try to tee up what the next four years might look like for the Democrats whether Harris wins or loses. As always, this show is funded by subscriptions. We give everything away for free and don’t have any paywalls but we do rely on your generosity to keep the lights on and the Zyn stocked. If you could reach over and just hit that subscribe button, it helps us bring you these takes. Thank you! This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit goodbye.substack.com/subscribe

Hello! This week we are discussing the state of reading in America and the big Atlantic article that said that college kids can’t really make it through difficult books anymore and blamed woke or something. Our guest is Susannah Grossman, a veteran teacher who has been on both sides of this debate. Really good episode this week imho — lotta lively talk and perspective from someone who has been inside these classrooms. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit goodbye.substack.com/subscribe

Hello! Today we’re talking about Kamala Harris’s plan for Black men, crypto, one million loans for $20,000, and Trump’s 30 minute spotify playlist party which included his favorite song (Time to Say Goodbye). We also give our best case for the Harris campaign’s strategy and its endless tacks to the right. The LEAST toxic TTSG in months! As always, we appreciate all our listeners but if you could help us keep the lights on, please reach over and hit that subscribe button for $5 a month. Thank you! This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit goodbye.substack.com/subscribe

Hello!Today’s episode is about THE GREAT BLACK HOPE, a new book by the historian Louis Moore. We talk about the history of Black quarterbacks, both in college and the NFL, the financial and societal pressures that have both led to change and kept some things the same. On a larger scale, we talk about how sports serves both as a testing ground for ideas about race but also how racism locks in certain ways of thinking. Thanks! This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit goodbye.substack.com/subscribe

Hello!Apologies for the slight delay in getting this episode out but we have a great show today with the writer Jazmine Hughes. We talk about Ta-Nehisi Coates’s new book about writing, the West Bank and his travels, the writer-as-activist-celebrity, and the strange and tangled relationship that we, as minority writers, have with prestige media outlets. Enjoy! This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit goodbye.substack.com/subscribe

Hello!This week Tyler pays tribute to the great literary critic Fredric Jameson who tragically passed away recently. We talk about the importance of his work and why it will be hard to find someone like him given the state of the academy and literary culture. And then we dive into what happened between RFK and Olivia Nuzzi and how journalism ethics talk ruins every party.Enjoy! This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit goodbye.substack.com/subscribe

Hello!A quick note before we start: We recorded this as we always do on Tuesday for an early Wednesday release. The last part of the show focuses on what at the time was a wishy-washy and evasive response from Kamala Harris when asked about what Trump and Vance were doing to Haitian residents in Springfield, Ohio. Since then, Harris has come out and called their attacks a “crying shame” and likened it to Trump’s demonization of the Central Park Five. We decided to keep the section in the show because while it’s great that Harris did finally address it, I (Jay) still find it interesting that she chose to liken it to well-worn things she’s already talked about, but decline to say anything positive about immigrants or immigration at all. This defensiveness is what we were responding to and while I think the tone we reached would’ve been muted a bit, I still think the logic is sound and relevant. Other than that, we talked about how we now view the “fascism debate” in light of these disgusting attacks on a specific, vulnerable population who already is seeing daily bomb threats at schools, and we talked a bit about the latest assassination attempt on Donald Trump’s life. Enjoy! This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit goodbye.substack.com/subscribe