The Blue Wave Won't Fix Your US Tariffs

Episode 161 is Wednesday 11 November, Remembrance Day. Mal starts with an apology: he woke up remembering the minute's silence, then forgot it at 11am anyway. Alex is back after a fortnight away, Black Friday has already started for most of the market, and Mal finishes by heading straight off to be first at the barrier for Iron Maiden.The big one is David Jones. Mal said it would trade through Black Friday, and it didn't. It's now in administration and receivership after Scentre said rent hadn't been paid since September. Mal and Alex cover what happens to its shoppers, why Myer comes out ahead, and why the biggest losers are the smaller brands that paid for stock up front and won't get paid for it.Cue reportedly has a buyer in former Myer chairman Bill Wavish, and Black Milk is up for sale after going into voluntary administration.The ACCC is checking Black Friday emails and social posts as well as websites this year, and Mal warns that prize-draw promotions may need a permit.Baymard research finds 60% of US shoppers say AI-generated product images would make them less confident, and 17% wouldn't buy at all.Fayt is keeping full price this Black Friday and giving away $100,000 instead, while Stax is sitting the sale out altogether.David Jones is in administration and receivership, and Mal explains why the brands it stocked will lose out the most.Adorn Cosmetics' founder says a migration to Adobe Commerce cut sales by about 30%, and Mal and Alex look at what it means for your own tech stack, alongside Power Retail's report on the cost of fragmented systems.

Episode 160 is Wednesday 4 November, and it's a solo one: Alex is out this week, so you're stuck with Mal. Recording was pushed back a day, not for the Melbourne Cup but for the Reserve Bank. Ecom Nation was a finalist at the Meta agency awards but didn't take home its category (there's always next year), and there's a thank-you to the Snapchat crew for the after-party.The big one is the RBA's fifth rate rise of the year, taking the cash rate to 4.85%, the highest since 2008, three weeks out from Black Friday. CommBank's economists now say the slowdown will be sharper and longer than they thought. Mal explains why that means a huge Black Friday followed by a longer hangover, what he's seeing from shoppers stocking up for months ahead, and why retailers need to plan stock and cash for a weak 2027. He also covers Black Milk entering voluntary administration on the day of recording.Australians spent a record $25 billion online in the September quarter, but the average basket fell almost 7% to $90, so it's time to check your free-shipping threshold.Hydralyte fooled the industry with a horror film that doesn't exist, Don't Let the Dryness Get You, complete with a trailer, posters, a soundtrack and nine identical women at Circular Quay.LSKD says it took 150,000 orders on the first day of its early Black Friday sale, while Ryderwear ran a four-hour sale, and Mal looks at the rise of short, early sales.Democrats are projected to take both houses of the US Congress, and Mal explains why that won't change tariff costs for Australian brands selling into the US any time soon.The RBA lifts the cash rate to 4.85%, and Mal explains what a deeper, longer slowdown means for stock, cash and Black Friday planning.Online brands like Princess Polly, VRG GRL and Oz Hair & Beauty are opening stores while Betts shrinks back, and Mal explains why stores are now where brands earn trust.AI stocks lost more than US$1 trillion in a week, yet Meta's ad revenue grew 26% while Google's search ads came in under forecasts.

Episode 159 is Wednesday 28 October. Mal is recording from Sydney after a red-eye and a full day of meetings, then heading off to watch Street Fighter on his own (he says solo movies are underrated). The Meta agency awards are on Thursday night, so the result comes next week. Alex's dad has launched a tinny hire business on the Murray, and Mal has some bucks weekend ideas.The big one this week is David Jones. Reports say the directors are weighing insolvency after two years of heavy losses, the loss of its credit insurance and suppliers offered 20-week repayment plans. The owner denies all of it. Mal and Alex talk through what it means if you sell into DJs, why it matters whether you're on concession or wholesale, and what happens to the store when the big brands leave.Premier's Europe sales fell 12%, and Peter Alexander has closed all three UK stores after losing more than a dollar for every dollar of UK sales.Nick Scali's UK orders are up 29%, but Australian orders are down 15%, store traffic is down 10% and a cyber attack took its systems down for three weeks.Temple & Webster's revenue is down 8% but contribution margin dollars are up 16%, after it raised prices and cut back on discounting.David Jones faces reports its directors are weighing insolvency, which its owner denies.Ragtrader's deep dive shows Mosaic, Stax, Cue and others were insolvent for two to four years before they collapsed, while Shona Joy is closing after 26 years on its own terms.Genre bookstores are booming, from romance-only shops in Australia to 600+ new independents in the US, and Mal and Alex pick the specialist store they'd open.

Episode 158 is Wednesday 21 October, and everyone is flat out getting ready for Black Friday. Alex has another LinkedIn Live on Friday, and Mal is heading to a black-tie Halloween party next week in a tux and a Phantom of the Opera mask. Ecom Nation is also up for a Meta agency award next week, so fingers crossed.The big one this week is LSKD firing the starting gun on Black Friday. It's going up to 70% off storewide from 27 October, a full month early, and warning shoppers to expect 15-day shipping delays. Mal and Alex weigh that against the brands opting out altogether, ask whether skipping Black Friday is just another kind of marketing, and talk about why Mal is bracing for a January hangover.Stax relaunches on 6 November under new CEO Anna Cheng, and is turning about 13,000 unfulfilled orders into dollar-for-dollar store credit.The ACCC has taken Kmart to the Federal Court, alleging its OXX nail glue caused burns from 2017 without a warning on the pack, and that its Anko watches failed button battery standards.Fewer Australians are doing Halloween this year (18%, down from 21%), but total spend is up 2% to $510M and spend per person is up 13.6%.China's economy grew 4.5% last quarter on a 36% jump in September exports, while retail sales grew just 1.1%.LSKD starts its "biggest sale ever" a month before Black Friday, while Slappas, Citizen Wolf and others skip it.Bellroy opens its first store after 16 years, with New York and Kuala Lumpur to follow, and Mal explains why he walked away from an $800 backpack he couldn't see.

Episode 157 is Tuesday 13 October, and Alex has to remind Mal to say the date, after listeners asked for it. Inside Retail's Top 50 People in E-Commerce nominations close the day this goes out, so get yours in. And a shout-out to Andrew Pearce and Hello Sarnie, the Adelaide sandwich shop Mal put on Uber Eats back in 2016, which has just opened its first store outside South Australia, in North Sydney.The big one this week is Kmart and Big W pulling their $89 smart glasses after the privacy regulator opened an investigation. Mal and Alex talk about why shoppers are pushing back on tech: UK venues are banning Meta glasses, people are asking what their Ring doorbells record, and record and DVD sales are coming back. And half of shoppers say they think less of a brand that uses AI-made ads.The surcharge ban is two weeks old, "service fees" are showing up at the counter, and the ACCC says a card surcharge under a different name is still illegal.Uniqlo's Southeast Asia, India and Australia business grew 30.7% to A$7.3B, and it barely ever discounts.ASOS was breached through its Snowflake data platform and its shares fell 10%, while 52% of Australian small businesses say they don't think they're a target.Prime Big Deal Days pushed US online spend to $9.86B in two days, and Lowe's will start Black Friday on 29 October.Kmart and Big W pull their smart glasses as the OAIC investigates, even as Meta's glasses sales have tripled to more than 7 million pairs.Bond-Eye has launched swimwear made from 45% Australian merino with no nylon or polyester, and Australia hasn't required fibre-content labels since 2019.Stax's liquidators put the shortfall at about $23M, against the $10M reported, with $1.4M of customer pre-orders booked as revenue.

Episode 156 is Wednesday 7 October, and Mal is recording from a booth at WeWork Pitt Street in Sydney, still getting going after the long weekend. Alex spent hers at a packed Bunnings, photographing products and asking Claude which one to buy instead of finding a sales assistant. Mal's mother-in-law is doing the same with Gemini. Every shopper now does their research with an AI first, and that changes what a store is for.The big one this week is Marley Spoon. The meal-kit company says demand for its GLP-1 Support range has almost tripled since May, and the range is now around 6.5% of revenue. Mal and Alex talk about the GLP-1 customer as a new kind of shopper: they eat less, want more protein and need a whole new wardrobe. They also look at which categories should be building for that customer now.Frasers vs Accent turns into a board fight, and shareholders finally get their say at the AGM on 20 November.TikTok will now run your ads outside TikTok, across nearly 400,000 apps, mostly mobile games. Mal is sceptical, because Meta's Audience Network never performed.Nike's revenue is down 4%, China is down 26% for a ninth straight quarter, and there's another restructure. The performance range is growing while Dunks, Air Force Ones and Jordans fall, and cheaper Chinese brands are coming for the running market.Three closures: Valley Eyewear drew seven offers after an owners' dispute, Suboo had over a third of its $655k debt with Shopify and Wayflyer, and TVSN shuts after 30 years.Marley Spoon's GLP-1 Support range has almost tripled since May and is now around 6.5% of revenue.Country Road Group is pulling about a third of its concessions out of David Jones. Department store research says more than half of menswear is bought by women.AI is making more ads than anyone can watch, so now machines pick which ones we see. Mal argues for podcasts, digital out-of-home and brand campaigns you control.

Episode 155 is Wednesday 30 September, the last day of Q3. Adelaide can't decide if it's summer, and Mal is recording in shorts. The warm snap is pulling summer buying forward. A couple of Mal's clients are selling picnic gear at full price, without discounting. That's a nice counterpoint to last week's "nobody pays full price" story.The big one this week is the Reserve Bank lifting the cash rate to 4.6%. That's the highest in 15 years, and it lands eight weeks before Black Friday. Mal makes the contrarian call: squeezed shoppers will save up and spend big in the sales, so November could be huge, with a hangover in January and February. Alex covers gift edits and event wear. They both talk about a two-speed Christmas, where people with a mortgage cut back and outright owners keep spending.QBD says manga is its fastest-growing book category. The licensing lesson is to look for the fandoms nobody's tapped yet (Alex had to Google what manga is).Vinnies has started selling on eBay Live, beginning with a signed Roosters jersey from $1. Apparently 40% of Australians want to shop by livestream. Mal is not one of them.New research says shoppers barely notice when packs get smaller but do react when prices go up. Would you rather pay the same for less?The RBA takes rates to 4.6% just before Black Friday. Deloitte has retail growth slowing from 2.8% to 1.5%, and it's a two-speed Christmas.Glassons posts a 50% profit jump on the back of Australia, while Cue sits in receivership with Myer, Brand Collective and Oroton circling.Eye-Patch Gate: Fenty, Glow Recipe, Huda Beauty and Vitamasques all launched the same "innovative" eye-patch dispenser within days of each other. Your manufacturer might already be your competitor.

Episode 154 opens with the date, because you asked for it: Thursday 24 September. Mal is just back from eTail in Melbourne, where day one was all AI and day two was loyalty. R.M. Williams and Oz Hair & Beauty both argued that loyalty shouldn't mean handing out credits and killing your margin. Mal then admits he's a Qantas Platinum lifer with 1.8 million points.The big one this week is KPMG's Retail Health Index. Six in ten Australian shoppers no longer buy at full price, and the index is expected to stay negative until the end of 2027. Mal and Alex talk about how retailers trained shoppers to wait for sales, and what to do about it. That includes keeping clearance stock out of your site search and product recommendations, giving customers a reason to buy at the start of summer, and running bundles and edits instead of yet another made-up sale.Coles put milk up 20c "for the farmers", stopped paying the farmers, and only took 10c back off.Meta's Muse AI agent lands in WhatsApp. Amazon blocks it, and Shopify switches on agentic checkout for every store.Premier Retail: Peter Alexander keeps growing on licensing and loyalty, while Smiggle drops $34M and closes 13% of its stores.KPMG's Retail Health Index: 60% of shoppers won't pay full price, costs keep rising, and the sale calendar keeps growing (Golden Week sales, anyone?).Larry Kestelman's Brand Collective buys Glue Store, The Dom and Running Bare. Is it a smart play or a clearance channel?KMD Brands posts a NZ$414M statutory loss that's mostly a Rip Curl write-down, while every brand in the group grew.

Black Friday prep is well underway, and this week opened with something you don't get often on this show — genuinely good news. Tara McKeon has won back control of Proud Poppy after creditors voted to keep her running the business rather than winding it up, a real vote of confidence from the people she owes money to.But the story every operator listening needs to act on is the RBA's card surcharge ban — from October 1st, surcharges are banned outright across eftpos, Mastercard and Visa, paired with cuts to interchange fees. That's just fifteen days' notice for a change the RBA claims will save businesses and consumers up to $1.8 billion a year, though the real story is who actually recoups the cost.Tara McKeon has regained control of Proud Poppy after creditors approved a Deed of Company Arrangement rather than winding the business up.Ralph Lauren posted another quarter of margin expansion by selling fewer units at full price, adding 1.5 million new direct-to-consumer customers in the process.Frasers Group has demanded Accent Group chair Lawrence Myers resign immediately, drawing a line in the sand at the end of September.Cue Clothing has entered administration just 18 months after Hilco Capital bought it, despite narrowing losses and growing sales.Card surcharges are banned outright from October 1st, and the RBA's promised savings may not reach consumers the way it's being framed.A new category of "dopamine sites" lets people simulate the entire online shopping experience — cart, checkout and all — without ever placing a real order.Culture Kings turned the NFL's first regular-season game in Australia into a 635% sales week without ever officially sponsoring the event.

Alex is back in the hot seat after two solo weeks, and it's a lean, sharp episode: five stories, no filler, in and out in twenty-odd minutes. The headline number this week belongs to Shein, whose Hong Kong debut shed $5 billion in value in five trading days — the second-worst opening week of its size on the exchange, behind only Baidu — and Mal and Alex dig into whether that's ultra-fast-fashion cracking or just Shein specifically wearing the regulatory target on its back.Aje is reportedly courting private equity and family offices to fund its next growth phase, fresh off a Lara Worthington denim collab.A credit-card-sized e-reader called the Xteink is quietly showing up Big Tech, and you can buy it on Temu, TikTok Shop and Amazon.Coles has ended its three-year Palantir partnership after a GetUp campaign topped 85,000 signatures — and its "wasn't surveillance" line raised more questions than it settled.Gen Z's financial stress is real, but the wallet's moved toward toys, charms and travel rather than vanishing altogether.Shein's Hong Kong IPO lost $5 billion in its first week, and Mal's not convinced one bad week makes an IPO.