Brief: What to Expect from Tariffs

"Ukraine is sort of a laboratory for what the future of warfare across the planet could look like." The war in Ukraine has caused rapid military innovation since Russia's invasion over three years ago, from military-commercial integration to collaboration with the civil sector to the production of cheap, small attritable drones. But most of all, Ukraine's military is at the forefront of waging AI-enabled autonomous warfare. Kateryna Bondar, fellow in the CSIS Wadhwani AI Center, recently published a new report on Ukraine's rapidly evolving capabilities in autonomous aerial systems. She joins the podcast to discuss how Ukraine is using AI-driven unmanned systems to reduce direct warfighter involvement while enhancing combat effectiveness. Read the new report: https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukraines-future-vision-and-current-capabilities-waging-ai-enabled-autonomous-warfare

In this special episode of The Truth of the Matter, Andrew is joined by CSIS's Philip Luck, director of the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, to discuss the new tariffs set to take effect on April 2 and their impact on Americans and the global economy.

“If you’re a reporter in Beijing right now, you have to assume that the Chinese government knows every source you’re meeting with, that they know every interview you’re going to do.” When Jane Perlez worked as the New York Times bureau chief in Beijing, she supervised 15 journalists. Now, the Times has only two journalists permanently based in China—and only 20 American journalists remain in the country. Jane Perlez, who spent 7 years reporting in China for the Times and is now the host of “Face-Off: The U.S. vs China,” joins the podcast to discuss the journalism climate in China right now and how the U.S.-China political-economic relationship has evolved since COVID and President Trump’s re-election.

Water is essential to global society, for everything from drinking and growing food to producing energy and cultural practices. 40 percent of the world’s workforce works in sectors that rely on water, and water counts for $58 trillion in global economic output each year. But while the industrialized world can take water access for granted, water resources around the world are increasingly under stress. Billions of people lack access to safely managed sanitation systems and drinking water, and as this critical resource grows increasingly scarce, it is becoming a trigger for, weapon in, and casualty of global conflicts. CSIS’s David Michel, senior fellow for water security in the CSIS Global Food and Water Security Program, joins the podcast to discuss global water conflict and the risks that water security poses to U.S. geopolitical and economic interests. Listen to Hidden Depths, a new podcast from the CSIS Global Food and Water Security Program, here: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/hidden-depths

Russia poses several types of threats to Western powers. In the conventional sphere, the invasion of Ukraine is a direct threat to European countries. But below the threshold of conventional war, Russia's military intelligence directorate is also carrying out "active measures," an irregular warfare campaign of sabotage and subversion against Western countries that includes the use of explosive and incendiary devices, cyberattacks, and the use of blunt or edged instruments to damage critical infrastructure like undersea cables. The CSIS Defense and Security Department compiled a database of these attacks to analyze Russia's ongoing "shadow war" against the West. CSIS's Seth Jones, president of the CSIS Defense and Security Department, joins the podcast to discuss their findings. Read the full analysis by Seth Jones here: https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-shadow-war-against-west

Former CIA Middle East expert Norman Roule joins the podcast to discuss President Trump’s muscular approach to the Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza.

“While AI is digital in nature, the binding constraint is physical.” While many think of the race for AI dominance as who can develop the best model, that’s only one piece of the puzzle. Frontier models, data centers, leading-edge chips, energy sources, and digital networks all form the full stack of AI leadership—and any one of them could be a point of failure. CSIS’s Navin Girishankar, president of the CSIS Economic Security and Technology Department, and Joseph Majkut, director of the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change program, join the podcast to discuss their new research on how to secure U.S. full stack leadership in AI, especially expanding energy production to power future AI needs.  Read CSIS’s latest research on full stack AI leadership here: https://www.csis.org/analysis/securing-full-stack-us-leadership-ai

The United States is experiencing the worst measles outbreak in 30 years and the highest rate of contraction in the past six years after nearly eradicating the disease. Cases have surged in communities with low immunization coverage, raising concerns about further transmission. Hospitals are reporting an increase in severe cases, particularly among young children and immunocompromised individuals. Experts urge immediate action, emphasizing that vaccination remains the most effective defense against the highly contagious virus. CSIS’s J. Stephen Morrison joins the podcast to discuss the outbreak and the risks associated with it. Events: Increasing Measles Vaccination Coverage to Improve Global Health Security

Following meetings with European diplomats in Brussels and Paris, CSIS’s Max Bergmann joins the podcast to discuss a possible United States divorce from our allies in Europe. As geopolitical tensions rise and Washington shifts its strategic focus toward the Indo-Pacific, European leaders question the long-term reliability of U.S. commitments to NATO and regional security. Economic disputes, defense spending disagreements, and differing approaches to Russia and China have further widened the gap between the transatlantic allies.  Background Reading: Why It's Time to Reconsider a European Army Events: U.S. Allies and Partners Under the Trump Administration

CSIS’s Seth Jones, director of the CSIS Defense and Security Department, joins the podcast to discuss the impact of stopping U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine, whether European countries can fill the gap, and how this could affect peace negotiations. They also unpack the fallout from last week’s dramatic Trump-Zelensky meeting and how it could impact the chances of the minerals deal or a peace agreement favorable to Ukraine, as well as the key difference between economic and security guarantees from the United States to Ukraine. Seth also explains how a U.S.-Russia relationship could shift the global order and previews a new CSIS report on malicious activities from Russian military intelligence in Europe that have affected the war. Events: Russia’s War in Ukraine and the Prospects for Peace Deterring Russia: U.S. Military Posture in Europe