Episode 338 - Peter Mladina: Factor Betas and ICAPM in Practice

In today’s episode, we unpack how rigorous research translates into actionable strategies for wealth management. Ben and Mark are joined by Peter Mladina, Executive Director of Portfolio Research at Northern Trust Wealth Management and professor at UCLA. With an impressive body of published work and practical innovations like his goals-based asset allocation software, Peter offers a unique perspective on bridging the gap between theory and practice. The conversation delves into foundational topics like asset allocation and factor models, with a special focus on practical applications of research in wealth management. Peter shares insights from his research, including intriguing findings on factor investing and joint tests of market efficiency. From real estate investment trusts to the nuances of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), the discussion covers how these concepts can directly inform financial planning and portfolio construction. Tune in to explore the intersection of academic insight and everyday financial decision-making! Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:17) Introducing Peter Mladina and his wealth management research. (0:04:00) Theoretical and practical shortcomings of Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). (0:05:24) How the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) resolves MPT’s shortcomings, and how the Intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) resolves the CAPM and MPT’s shortcomings. (0:10:16) Key distinctions between an optimal ICAPM portfolio and an optimal CAPM portfolio. (0:15:33) Allocating between liability hedge assets and risky assets, and when it’s sensible for individual investors to try to fully hedge consumption liabilities. (0:20:14) The role of Monte Carlo simulation and human capital in building ICAPM portfolios. (0:24:15) Steps for practitioners starting with ICAPM and how to advise their clients. (0:37:18) Insights from Peter’s papers on factor models: why common risk factors should explain returns across most asset classes. (0:40:11) The value of looking at asset classes through a factor lens. (0:41:54) Main factors Peter uses in his research and observations on the zoo of factors. (0:46:23) Takeaways from Peter’s paper on real estate (and why he doesn’t like it that much). (0:56:45) Unpacking hedge fund returns and factor models and Yale’s endowment performance. (01:02:44) Peter’s research on traded portfolios and jointly testing factor models and manager performance. (01:07:14) How Peter defines success, both professionally and personally.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Peter Mladina on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-mladina-177194125/ Peter Mladina on SSRN — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=890472 Northern Trust — https://www.northerntrust.com/ Episode 169: John Cochrane — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/169   Papers From Today’s Episode:  ‘Real Estate Betas and the Implications for Asset Allocation’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3134732 ‘An ICAPM Framework for Asset Allocation’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4319731 ‘An ICAPM for Goals-Based Investing’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4943241 'Portfolios for Long-Term Investors' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3790823 ‘Yale's Endowment Returns: Manager Skill or Risk Exposure?’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2959074

As the year draws to a close, the Rational Reminder Podcast team delivers an engaging year-end special with a unique twist. Rather than curating clips from previous episodes, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Mark McGrath dive into an AMA-style episode, answering listener-submitted questions. They share reflections on lessons learned, highlight impactful community discussions, and provide thoughtful takes on investing strategies, personal growth, and financial planning. They discuss their evolving views on human capital integration, portfolio diversification, and the importance of behavioural finance in long-term planning. They also revisit key themes from earlier episodes and offer heartfelt thank-yous to their team and audience for a remarkable year. Join us for a mix of practical insights, entertaining banter, and a glimpse into what’s ahead for the Rational Reminder Podcast. Don’t miss this memorable year-end wrap-up! Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:00) Episode format and a thank you to the PWL Capital team, producers, and audience. (0:05:14) Influential community discussions and their insights on efficient ETF design. (0:10:14) Hear the reason behind Ben's decision to shave his head for so long. (0:13:51) How to integrate human capital into useful financial planning and strategy. (0:19:33) They share their thoughts on the evolving definition of success in life and work. (0:23:33) Their top finance and investment book recommendations for retail investors. (0:28:50) Uncover the nuances of assessing a value premium within an ETF. (0:30:46) How real-life events shaped their approach to providing guidance and financial advice. (0:37:18) Return stacking and a comparison of Dimensional's and Avantis' vector portfolios. (0:41:05) Risks of bonds, bills, and credit and why past returns do not guarantee future results. (0:48:27) Explore the complexities of tax-efficient ETFs and Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) options. (0:56:50) Balancing long-term investment assumptions with short-term market dynamics. (1:03:23) We debate the U.S. market's valuation and the implications for asset allocation. (1:10:15) Hard financial lessons from Ben, Mark, and Dan's investment journeys.  (1:16:29) Unpack the pros and cons of life insurance, infinite banking, and whole life insurance. (1:28:35) Aftershow: reviews, Marks's beard, a final thank you, and more.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/ Canadian Couch Potato — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/ The Podcast Consultant — https://thepodcastconsultant.com/ Morgan Housel — https://www.morganhousel.com Dimensional Fund Advisors — https://dimensional.com/ Avantis — https://avantisfi.com/ Dan Solin — https://danielsolin.com/ Global X — https://globalxetfs.com/ Episode 138: Factor Investing in Fixed Income — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/138 Episode 163: Dave Plecha — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/163 Episode 198: Gerard O’Reilly — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/198 Episode 316: Andrew Chen — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/316 Episode 332: Randolph Cohen & Michael Green — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/332   Books From Today’s Episode:   Are You a Stock or a Bond? — https://amazon.com/Are-You-Stock-Bond-Financial/dp/0133115291 Reboot Your Portfolio — https://amazon.com/Reboot-Your-Portfolio-Successful-Investing-ebook/dp/B09P4G9LR7 Wealthier — https://amazon.com/Wealthier-Investing-Field-Guide-Millennials-ebook/dp/B0CX2VD1CW The Psychology of Money — https://amazon.com/Psychology-Money-Timeless-lessons-happiness/dp/0857197681 Thinking, Fast and Slow — https://amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555 A Random Walk Down Wall Street — https://amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/0393330338/ Winning the Loser's Game — https://amazon.com/Winning-Losers-Game-Strategies-Successful/dp/1264258461/ Wealth Planning Strategies for Canadians 2024 — https://amazon.ca/Wealth-Planning-Strategies-Canadians-2024/dp/166871504X Becoming Your Own Banker — https://amazon.com/Becoming-Your-Own-Banker-Infinite/dp/B001NZO1DS   —    Papers From Today’s Episode:    'Who Are the Value and Growth Investors?' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12473 'Portfolios for Long-Term Investors' — https://academic.oup.com/rof/article/26/1/1/6484661 'Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice' — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4590406

What shapes investor beliefs and behaviours? Steve Utkus, a leading expert in investor behaviour and former Global Head of Investor and Retirement Research at Vanguard, brings decades of groundbreaking insights to this episode. Drawing on exclusive access to Vanguard’s anonymized client data and investor surveys, Steve uncovers the intricate links between what people believe and how they invest. In the first half, he reveals surprising findings from his research into investor beliefs and portfolio decisions. The second half dives into the impact of financial advisors, both human and robotic, on improving investor outcomes. Steve’s reflections, enriched by years of collaboration with academic leaders and personal conversations with Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, offer a rare window into the world of data-driven financial research. Join us today for this fascinating conversation as we unpack fresh perspectives on investor behaviour and the evolving role of financial advice! Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:20) The importance of understanding investor belief, Steve’s unique approach to studying it, and the benefits of using survey data. (0:08:37) Understanding the effects of individual beliefs on portfolio equity shares. (0:13:40) How equity sensitivity varies with things like trading frequency and how observed sensitivity compares with predictions of an asset pricing model. (0:17:27) The variation of beliefs across different groups and the strong effect of being a pessimist, optimist, or having a middle-of-the-road perspective. (0:21:29) Investor cash flow expectations, how it affects stock return expectations, and how it aligns with models of equilibrium. (0:24:35) The impact of stock market disaster expectations on future stock returns and the effect of COVID-19 on investor expectations. (0:33:37) ESG investing motives, portfolio impact, and the role of financial returns. (0:38:35) Unpacking the impact of robo-advisors on previously DIY investors and who benefits. (0:45:21) Pros and cons of human financial advisors: the needs they satisfy over robo-advisors. (0:53:12) How unadvised investors' needs differ from those who get financial advice. (0:54:04) What determines how much value investors place on financial advice and how they think about the trade-offs between fees and the value of advice. (01:00:00) Reasons traditionally-advised people give for not switching to robo-advising. (01:03:15) Having a relationship with a good advisor: how it impacts investor behaviour through poor market performance periods, and the importance of frequent quality communication. (01:13:07) The key attributes of a high-retention advisor and what they should be focusing on. (01:19:02) Success, retirement, timing, and knowing when to leave, according to Steve.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Steve Utkus on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/steveutkus/ Episode 278: Juhani Linnainmaa — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/278   Books From Today’s Episode: Bogle on Mutual Funds — https://www.amazon.com/Bogle-Mutual-Funds-Perspectives-Intelligent/dp/111908833X   Papers From Today’s Episode:  ‘Political Cycles and Stock Returns’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2920401 Scott Cederburg Paper — ‘The Diversification and Welfare Effects of Robo-advising’ — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X24000928 ‘Who Benefits from Robo-advising? Evidence from Machine Learning’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3552671 ‘Human Financial Advice in the Age of Automation’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4301514 ‘The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3101426

What makes Warren Buffett’s investment legacy so iconic, and how has his advice shaped the world of investing? In this episode, we delve into Warren Buffet's investment philosophy and the lessons he offers everyday investors. In our conversation, we unpack the impact of his investment strategies on the financial world, debunk common misconceptions, and discuss how his strategies have changed over time. We also examine the structural barriers to replicating his success, the complexities of scale and changing market dynamics, and the parallels between his approach and modern asset pricing models. Discover Warren Buffett’s astonishing historical returns, his perspectives on diminishing returns for active managers, and the misunderstood nuances of his advice regarding index funds. Gain insight into academic research on Warren Buffett’s success, his pragmatic view on cash holdings, and his opinion on the value of dividends for investors. Tune in to learn about the world's greatest investor and how you can apply his wisdom to your own portfolio!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:04:55) Warren Buffett’s legacy and Berkshire Hathaway's performance history. (0:13:04) The problem of diminishing returns to scale and finding skilled active managers. (0:18:37) Reasons Buffett repeatedly advises most investors to choose low-cost index funds.  (0:23:14) Why identifying skilled managers before they outperform the market is impossible. (0:30:15) Research explaining Buffett's success using multi-factor asset pricing models. (0:35:30) Insight into why Berkshire Hathaway holds large cash reserves as part of its strategy. (0:44:02) Buffett’s views on dividends and why his focus remains on reinvestment. (0:48:16) Why diversification concentration is a bad strategy and Buffett's investing superpower. (0:57:07) Aftershow: Ben’s experience of being on The Wealthy Barber podcast. (0:58:07) Reviews and feedback from the episode with Randolph Cohen and Michael Green. (1:04:58) Changes to our year-end episode format and what listeners can expect.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/ CPP by the Fire — https://pages.pwlcapital.com/webinar_cpp_by_the_fire Braden Warwick on LinkedIn — https://linkedin.com/in/braden-warwick-a40b48a3/ PWL Capital CPP Tool — https://research-tools.pwlcapital.com/research/cpp Berkshire Hathaway — https://berkshirehathaway.com/ Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters — https://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html Richard Ennis — https://richardmennis.com/author/richard-m-ennis Home Trust — https://hometrust.ca/ Ben on The Wealthy Barber Podcast — https://thewealthybarber.com/podcast/ben-felix-a-deep-dive-into-the-world-of-investing-twb-podcast-5/ Episode 61: Ted Seides — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/61 Episode 220: Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/220 Episode 332 - Randolph Cohen & Michael Green — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/332   Books From Today’s Episode:   The Intelligent Investor — https://amazon.com/dp/B0CBQ18KDB/   Papers From Today’s Episode:    'Buffett’s Alpha' — https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v74.n4.3 'Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets'— https://journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/424739

How do you balance family values, evidence-based investing, and building long-term wealth? In this episode, we are joined by Magnus Reitan, CEO of Reitan Kapital, to discuss his evidence-based approach to wealth management. Reitan Kapital is a leading investment firm specializing in index fund strategies and innovative portfolio optimization techniques. Under his leadership, the firm has become a key player in the investment industry, known for its analytical approach and commitment to sustainable and effective financial solutions. In our conversation, we delve into the disciplined, evidence-based philosophy driving Reitan Kapital’s investment strategy, the importance of simplicity in managing wealth, and the lessons he’s learned as an investor and a leader. We also explore the nuances around managing family wealth, unpack the importance of aligning investment strategies with family and business goals, and uncover the influence of Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund on Reitan Kapital’s approach. Join us as we explore the intersection of finance, legacy, and innovation and learn why a low-cost, evidence-based investment strategy works with Magnus Reitan. Tune in now!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:27) The Reitan family’s journey from a single grocery store to a multinational group. (0:04:20) How Reitan Kapital fits into the broader Reitan Group and how it started. (0:06:35) Discover how Reitan Kapital defines risk and the role of access liquidity.  (0:08:06) Magnus shares how he developed his personal investment philosophy. (0:09:33) Hear how his personal interest in finance led to founding Reitan Kapital. (0:11:24) Explore the differences between managing a business and a family portfolio. (0:12:26) Why the company chose to hire a CIO who was not part of the Reitan family. (0:13:59) Reitan Kapital’s values: long-term perspective, diversification, liquidity, and low costs. (0:17:37) Hear how the family decided on and agreed to the company's investment approach. (0:18:58) Asset allocation at Reitan Kapital and the reasons behind its approach. (0:21:50) Avoiding portfolio complexity and the benefits of evidence-based investing. (0:24:30) The influence of Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund on Reitan Kapital’s philosophy. (0:26:07) Sources of information for learning about portfolio management and financial markets. (0:27:00) Lessons and key takeaways from the recent Reitan Kapital investor conference. (0:29:38) He shares his definition of success and why passion is important.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Magnus Reitan on LinkedIn — https://linkedin.com/in/magnus-reitan-3a6b90225/ Reitan Kapital — https://reitan.no/no/selskap/170/reitan-kapital Reitan Retail — https://reitanretail.no/en Reitan Eiendom — https://reitan.no/no/selskap/171/reitan-eiendom Episode 321: Evidence in Practice with Håkon Kavli — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/321 Håkon Kavli on LinkedIn — https://linkedin.com/in/haakonkavli/ Sindre Drevland on LinkedIn — https://linkedin.com/in/sindredrevland/

What does Trump’s re-election mean for the markets? In this episode, Ben and Mark explore The Presidential Puzzle, a phenomenon revealing that equity risk premiums have historically been higher under Democratic presidencies than Republican ones. With Trump returning to office as the 47th U.S. president, they examine how voter risk aversion shapes political outcomes and market expectations, offering surprising insights into this intriguing connection between politics and investing. They also delve into market timing pitfalls, the importance of diversification, and how financial advisors can help investors navigate emotionally charged decisions. To wrap up, Ben and Mark reflect on listener perspectives and explore the intriguing future of Bitcoin in finance. Tune in to learn what Trump’s win means for expected stock returns and more! Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:18) Mark and Ben’s experiences at the Physician Financial Independence Conference. (0:06:53) Republicans vs. Democrats: What the election results mean for the stock market. (0:09:09) The Presidential Puzzle and how belief informs asset choices among voters. (0:15:12) How risk aversion and the economy impact election outcomes and expected returns. (0:20:08) What investors should and should not do with this information. (0:24:38) The dangers of making financial decisions based on emotional predictions. (0:30:02) Unpacking the relationship between global risk aversion and U.S. presidencies. (0:31:20) Our aftershow segment: digging into recent reviews, the podcast topic puzzle, Ben’s recent trip to Boston, and Bitcoin.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital — https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Episode 217: The Expected Returns of Financial Literacy — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/217 Episode 313: When Should You Hire a Financial Advisor? — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/313 Episode 124: Ľuboš Pástor — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/124 Papers From Today’s Episode:  ‘Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3934061 ‘Political Cycles and Stock Returns’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2920401 ‘The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market’ — https://www.jstor.org/stable/3648176

Are index funds a silent disruptor? Or are the concerns overblown? In this grab-your-popcorn episode, Michael Green returns to the show after his previous appearance elicited a wave of compelling feedback from listeners. These included very smart individuals in academia and practice who were interested in hearing a counter perspective. Joining Michael today for a lively debate is Randolph Cohen, Senior Lecturer of Entrepreneurial Management in the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School. In our conversation, Michael shares his deep concerns about how index funds and target-date funds might be distorting financial markets, honing in on the tension between market efficiency and price elasticity. Randolph counters with an academically grounded perspective, drawing on his PhD and years of research and teaching at one of the world’s leading business schools. With Ben and Cameron moderating, the discussion explores both sides without reaching a definitive conclusion. Tune in to witness this spirited, nuanced exchange and decide where you stand! Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:14) Introducing Michael Green, Randolph Cohen, and today’s topics of debate. (0:06:00) Defining passive investing, distinguishing between the two different meanings of “the rise of passive investing”, and how much of the market is currently held by passive investors. (0:12:53) Michael’s concerns with the high levels of passive investing and Randy’s response. (0:20:55) Addressing the proliferation of target-date funds and their use in different scenarios. (0:28:48) Debating risk in the market, raised valuations, and retirement savings diversification. (0:42:22) A breakdown of the biggest thing Michael and Randy disagree on: how passive investing is impacting stock market valuations. (0:57:06) Answering the question: does inelasticity rise with passive, and how does it shape the impact of active managers? (01:06:14) Unpacking whether the rise of passive has made the markets more efficient; an accompanying refresher on the two types of passive. (01:09:27) Reasons to doubt whether there really is a rise in both types of passive and the effect of the rise in mega firms. (01:19:16) The state of fundamental analysis in the current market and Michael’s response to a recent paper by Goldman Sachs attempting to isolate the component of passive. (01:23:30) Unpacking the cross-sectional impact on stock valuations from index investing and insights on the work of Valentine Haddad. (01:31:28) The implications of today’s subject matter for investors and what they should be doing with this information. (01:44:22) Reflection on why more experts don’t share Michael’s level of concern. (01:47:42) Randy’s takeaways from today’s conversation, why he still does not share Michael’s level of concern, and what he might be worried about.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Michael Green on Substack — https://substack.com/@michaelwgreen Michael Green on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-green-9a15142/ Michael Green on X — https://twitter.com/profplum99 ‘Yes, I give a fig… Thoughts on markets from Michael Green’ — https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ Randolph Cohen — https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/profile.aspx?facId=6597 Randolph Cohen on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/randy-cohen/ Dangerous Visions Podcast — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dangerous-vision-with-randy-cohen/id1477519445 Episode 302: Michael Green — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/302 Episode 322: Marco Sammon — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/322 Episode 310: Antoinette Schoar — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/310 Episode 212: Ralph Koijen — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/212 Episode 314: Valentine Haddad — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/314 Episode 224: Scott Cederburg — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/224 Episode 284: Scott Cederburg — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/284 The Grossman - Stiglitz Paradox (feat. The Plain Bagel) — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoXMZxe8crI   Books From Today’s Episode:   Irrational Exuberance — https://www.amazon.com/Irrational-Exuberance-3rd-Robert-Shiller/dp/0691166269    Papers From Today’s Episode:    ‘The Disappearing Index Effect’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4294297 ‘Passive Investing and the Rise of Mega-Firms’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4851266 ‘Retail Financial Innovation and Stock Market Dynamics: The Case of Target Date Funds’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3723265 Valentine Haddad on Google Scholar — https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PlPjP48AAAAJ ‘How Competitive is the Stock Market? Theory, Evidence from Portfolios, and Implications for the Rise of Passive Investing’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3821263 ‘Household Portfolios and Retirement Saving Over the Life Cycle’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4068063 ‘The equity premium: A puzzle’ — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0304393285900613 ‘In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3686935

In today's episode, Cameron sits down with Mark McGrath to talk about his trip to Trondheim, Norway, the event he attended there, and his presentation in which he shared top lessons from prestigious Rational Reminder Podcast guests. Tuning in, you'll hear Cameron's top takeaways from conversations with Nobel laureate Eugene Fama and his collaborator Kenneth French, as well as Robert Merton, Antti Ilmanen, Professor Ludovic Phalippou, and more. We also delve into the changing industry trends regarding index investing and the many benefits that come with embracing it, including how it helps financial advisors better serve their clients. Stay tuned for our after-show section, where we discuss advice for new advisors, from developing a robust investment philosophy to building a network, along with insights to help consumers navigate the industry and much more. To learn all about Cameron’s trip to Norway, top guest takeaways, and industry trends around index investing, be sure to tune in!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:01:13) An overview of today’s episode and a discussion on industry trends. (0:03:56) Our conversation with Håkon Kavli on managing Reitan Kapital. (0:04:38) What it was like for Cameron to meet Håkon Kavli and Magnus Reitan in Norway. (0:05:42) The excellent event in Trondheim, Norway, and their impressive lineup of speakers. (0:08:56) Unpacking industry trends in index investing and why more people are embracing it. (0:09:42) The light bulb moment for Mark and Cameron regarding index investing. (0:19:07) Highlights from our interviews with Eugene Fama, Ken French, and Robert Merton. (0:25:28) Dr. Annamaria Lusardi's insights and takeaways from our John Cochrane interview. (0:29:05) Top lessons from our conversation with Antti Ilmanen on low-expected returns. (0:30:58) Insights from talking with Professor Ludovic Phalippou about private equity. (0:32:22) Closing thoughts on Cameron’s presentation in Norway and index investing trends. (0:39:44) Our aftershow segment: advice for new advisors, ways the industry has changed, tips for consumers, technology insights, personal updates, and more.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Episode 321: Evidence in Practice with Håkon Kavli – https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/321 Professor Marcos López de Prado — https://www.orie.cornell.edu/faculty-directory/marcos-lopez-de-prado Erik Hilde — https://www.linkedin.com/in/erik-hilde-9570a785/?originalSubdomain=no Dan Bortolotti — https://www.canadianmoneysaver.ca/authors/dan-bortolotti Canadian Couch Potato Blog — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/ Canadian Couch Potato Podcast — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/podcast/ Justin Bender — https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-bender-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-tep-195b8b27/?originalSubdomain=ca Episode 200: Prof. Eugene Fama — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/200 Tune Out the Noise — https://www.dimensional.com/film Episode 100: Prof. Kenneth French — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/100 Episode 234: Prof. Robert C. Merton — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/234 Episode 232: Dr. Annamaria Lusardi — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/232 Episode 169: Prof. John Cochrane — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/169 Episode 202: Antti Ilmanen – https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/202 Episode 210: Prof. Ludovic Phalippou — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/210 Fama and French Three Factor Model — https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/famaandfrenchthreefactormodel.asp Books From Today’s Episode: Investing Amid Low Expected Returns — http://www.aqr.com/serenity The Empowered Investor — https://www.amazon.ca/Empowered-Investor-Canadian-Investment-Experience/dp/0991978307  

What happens when index investing dominates the market? In this episode, we’re joined by Davidson Heath, Assistant Professor of Finance at the University of Utah David Eccles School of Business, to explore this question and its surprising answers. Davidson’s research dives into the unintended impacts of passive investing, examining how it influences price stability, corporate governance, and even the way we define shareholder responsibility. He unpacks how index funds, while supporting price efficiency, may be weakening governance structures by reducing shareholder oversight, a shift that could have lasting effects on corporate accountability. We also discuss the promise and limitations of socially responsible investing (SRI), as Davidson introduces the term “impact washing” to describe how some SRI funds fail to achieve real change despite their green branding. In a forward-looking segment, Davidson shares insights on the collaboration between AI and human intelligence in finance, giving a reassuring perspective on the future of machine and human co-existence in complex decision-making. This episode is a must-listen for anyone curious about the hidden dynamics of passive investing and the evolving role of technology in finance!   Key Points From This Episode: (0:02:22) Davidson’s paper On Index Investing; Why active managers are important to indexing. (0:08:42) Conclusions on how index investing is affecting price efficiency. (0:11:10) The role of shareholders in corporate governance. (0:13:06) How the incentives of index funds to monitor portfolio firms differ from active funds. (0:15:10) Measuring how well index or active funds are monitoring the companies they own. (0:16:54) How the expense ratios of index funds affect their quality of monitoring. (0:18:08) What shareholders can do to monitor and make themselves heard. (0:20:31) How index fund ownership affects other firm-level governance issues. (0:21:30) Recap and takeaways on index funds and the market. (0:25:39) The impact of socially responsible investing (SRI) and how successful they are at selecting firms with better environmental, social, and governance (ESG) characteristics. (0:28:08) Unpacking “impact washing” in SRI funds and its consequences. (0:33:04) Insights on how ETFs are replicating index funds. (0:37:03) The implications of Davidson’s findings for index ETF investors and the markets. (0:38:57) Details on Davidson’s Cyborg Trading project and how it’s using AI to complement human intelligence. (0:42:42) How Davidson defines success: being a part of a worthwhile endeavour.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Davidson Heath — https://davidsontheath.github.io/ Davidson Heath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidson-heath-5a28999a/ Davidson Heath on Google Scholar — https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Fr-HyLEAAAAJ&hl=en Cyborg — https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0097138/   Papers From Today’s Episode:  ‘On Index Investing’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3055324 ‘Do Index Funds Monitor?’ — https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab023 ‘Does Socially Responsible Investing Change Firm Behavior?’ — https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad002 ‘The Rise of Passive Investing and Active Mutual Fund Skill’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4190266 ‘Counterproductive Sustainable Investing: The Impact Elasticity of Brown and Green Firms’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4359282

Unlocking the power of education savings is often a complex task, but with the right strategies, a Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP) can be a game-changer for Canadian families planning their children's future. In this episode, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Mark McGrath take a deep dive into the mechanics of the RESP, covering everything from optimal contributions and grant maximization to tax-efficient withdrawals and asset allocation. They discuss critical factors like the Canada Learning Bond (CLB) for low-income families and the intricacies of group RESPs, noting how pooled plans, though easy to join, can financially penalize those who don’t stay the course. With the RESP’s unique 35-year lifespan and its flexible range of education options, this in-depth conversation brings clarity to a valuable tool often overshadowed by its complexity. Tune in to discover practical strategies that could transform how you fund education, optimize your investments, and make the most of Canada’s RESP benefits.   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:02:43) Purpose and structure of the RESP as a tool to fund post-secondary education. (0:06:25) Insight and tips for how contribution limits and government matching grants work. (0:07:13) How the CLB supports low-income families with up to $2,000 without contributions. (0:10:13) Family RESPs, which allow multiple beneficiaries to share contributions and earnings. (0:11:54) Distinguishing between Education Assistance Payments (EAP), Post-Secondary Education Payments (PSE), and their tax implications for beneficiaries. (0:14:27) Front-loading versus annual contributions: optimal contribution strategies to maximize grants and investment growth. (0:23:22) Tips for tax-efficient RESP withdrawals, especially if beneficiaries have other income. (0:35:28) Education outside of Canada, over-contribution penalties, and other considerations. (0:37:28) RESPs and estate planning, including naming a successor subscriber in your will. (0:42:54) Asset allocation advice: prioritize growth early and stabilize as educational costs near. (0:48:00) Constructive criticism of RESP policies to increase access for low-income families. (1:02:02) Summing up the benefits and challenges of RESPs and encouraging families to use them wisely as part of their education savings plan. (1:07:39) The aftershow: reviews, praise for Dan, and a community debate on expected returns.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Dan Bortolotti — https://benderbenderbortolotti.com/about/our-team/ Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/ Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP) — https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/education/education-savings/plan.html Canada Learning Bond — https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/registered-education-savings-plans-resps/canada-education-savings-programs-cesp/canada-learning-bond.html Aaron Hector: ‘Optimal RESP funding strategies if you have $50,000 to invest’ — https://x.com/AaronHectorCFP/status/1787188396248731967  Aaron Hector: ‘How to draw down a $200k RESP over a 4 year university program’ — https://x.com/AaronHectorCFP/status/1788196751821738360 Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) — https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development.html 'How to Invest Your RESP’ — https://benderbenderbortolotti.com/how-to-invest-your-resp/ ‘The Regulation of Group Plan RESPs and the Experiences of Low-Income Subscribers’ — https://seedwinnipeg.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/The_Regulation_of_Group_Plan_RESPs_and_the_Experiences_of_Low-income_Subscribers.pdf Episode 326: Dr. Sunil Wahal: Exploring the Nuances of Financial Science — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/326   Papers From Today’s Episode:    ‘The Anatomy of Value and Growth Stock Returns’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.806664 ‘Migration’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.926556