Episode 324 - Dr. Bryan Taylor: Lessons from Market History (1600-2024)

Have you ever wondered how financial markets performed centuries ago or how world events impacted stock prices? Today, we sit down with Dr. Bryan Taylor, President and Chief Economist at Global Financial Data, to unpack the world’s fascinating financial history. Dr. Taylor is known for his extensive work in collecting and analyzing historical financial data that spans several centuries and his valuable knowledge of stock, bond, and commodity market trends, which led to the creation of Global Financial Data. In our conversation, Dr. Taylor shares insights from his extensive research, covering stock and bond returns from as far back as the 1600s. From the impact of the French Revolution on financial markets to the performance of commodities, Dr. Taylor provides a rare view of the long-term trends shaping today’s financial decisions. Learn about the value of historical financial data, its importance for investment decision-making, and how long-term trends can provide insights into future market behaviour. We discuss the creation of Global Financial Data's extensive historical financial database, the challenges of gathering centuries-old data, and the long-term performance of stocks versus bonds. Explore the impact of major geopolitical events on financial markets, the importance of studying historical market trends for modern investment decisions, and how his data-driven research has been utilized. Join us as we delve into the world’s financial history and its relevance to today’s investment landscape with Dr. Bryan Taylor. Tune in now!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:41) Background about Global Financial Data, their data sources, and the challenges of collecting historical data. (0:09:27) What he finds fascinating about historical data, who uses the database, and the role of historical data in financial decision-making. (0:14:49) How stocks have performed relative to bonds throughout the financial records. (0:17:34) Uncover the main historical factors that limit returns and increase risk for investors and the five financial eras. (0:23:18) Explore the trends in stocks and bonds during the five financial eras and the impact of government debt and inflation on returns. (0:29:04) Common characteristics of countries that have had bad long-term market outcomes and the effect of world events on markets. (0:35:11) Learn about the best and worst-performing markets and what makes the US market so resilient. (0:38:36) His outlook for stocks and bonds and how the recent bear market compared to past market upheavals. (0:41:36) Compare past and current interest rates and the return on commodities versus stocks and bonds. (0:46:20) Overcoming the lack of historical data for emerging market returns and what defines an emerging market. (0:52:29) Find out how emerging markets have performed throughout history and how often they make the transition to developed. (0:59:04) Unpack the historical market concentration in the US and his thoughts on the expected returns of the US stock market. (1:03:42) Final takeaways and Dr. Bryan Taylor shares his definition of success.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Dr. Bryan Taylor — https://www.linkedin.com/in/bryan-taylor-46a92032/ Global Financial Data — https://globalfinancialdata.com/ Dr. Bryan Taylor on SSRN — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=4320002   Papers From Today’s Episode:    ‘France and the Four Horsemen of the Market’ — https://globalfinancialdata.com/france-and-the-four-horsemen-of-the-market ‘The Financial History of Emerging Markets: New Indices’ — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4193062  

Is renting just “throwing money away,” or could it be the smarter financial choice? In this episode, we dive deep into one of the most debated topics in personal finance: renting versus owning a home. In our conversation, we discuss the nuances of renting versus owning, the hidden costs of buying a home, and the importance of saving discipline. Tuning in, you’ll discover how emotional biases may inflate real estate prices and how societal pressures influence housing decisions. Then, we shift our focus to a listener's question about interest rates and bonds. Dan explains how bond prices and yields work inversely and delves into the concept of bond duration. He also breaks down how long and short-term bonds react to interest rate changes and why the Bank of Canada’s influence on bond markets may not always be straightforward. Join us as we investigate the pros and cons of renting versus buying and how to leverage bonds effectively in a dynamic interest rate environment! Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:54) Exploring the common belief that owning a home is universally better. (0:09:13) How buying and renting in Canada compares to other countries. (0:10:58) Some of the inherent risks of renting versus buying in Canada. (0:17:01) Methods to test how housing performed as an asset with examples. (0:21:04) The importance of analyzing real data, and Ben presents his findings.  (0:31:03) How housing costs influence the financial outcome of renting versus owning. (0:35:51) Ways that mortgages, housing costs, and forced savings affect wealth accumulation. (0:47:34) Unpacking how maintenance costs serve as a proportion of the building value. (0:52:45) Renting versus buying takeaways and the associated psychological factors. (1:00:37) Dan’s take on whether long-term bonds can take advantage of falling interest rates. (1:10:55) Insight into how various market-driven factors influence the long-term return on bonds. (1:13:30) Aftershow: final takeaways, catch-up, news, and more.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310 Canadian Couch Potato — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/ Future Proof Conference — https://futureproofhq.com/ CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation) Rental Market Survey Data — https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/data-tables/rental-market/rental-market-report-data-tables Episode 196: Sebastien Betermier — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/196 Episode 308: Dan Bortolotti — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/308 Statistics Canada — https://www.statcan.gc.ca/ Bank of Canada — https://www.bankofcanada.ca/ National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) — https://www.ncreif.org/ REALTOR.ca — https://www.realtor.ca/ Kevin Prins — https://www.bmoetfs.ca/specialists/kevin-prins BMO Canadian ETF — https://www.bmoetfs.ca/ Financial Planning Association of Canada — https://www.fpassociation.ca/   Papers From Today’s Episode:    ‘Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions’ — https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/089533005775196769&ref=josephnoelwalker.com ‘Lessons from Over 30 Years of Buy versus Rent Decisions: Is the American Dream Always Wise?’ — https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2011.00321.x ‘Perception of House Price Risk and Homeownership’ — https://www.nber.org/papers/w25090 ‘Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk’ — https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/120.2.763 ‘To Rent or Buy? A 30-Year Perspective’ — https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/article/journal/MAY18-rent-or-buy-30-year-perspective ‘Are Renters Being Left Behind?: Homeownership and Wealth Accumulation in Canadian Cities’ — http://hdl.handle.net/2429/50413 ‘The Life-Cycle Effects of House Price Changes’ — https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/working-papers/2005/wp05-7.pdf ‘Depreciation of Housing Capital, Maintenance, and House Price Inflation: Estimates From a Repeat Sales Model’ — https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2006.07.007 ‘Characteristics of Depreciation in Commercial and Multifamily Property: An Investment Perspective’ — https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12156 ‘Homeownership and Psychological Resources Among Older Adults: Do Gender and Mortgage Status Moderate Homeownership Effects?’ — https://doi.org/10.1177/08982643211029174  

Can we really understand the impact of passive ownership on the US market? Marco Sammon is an Assistant Professor in the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School. During this episode, he joins us to share deep insights into the complex and counter-intuitive nature of the index fund revolution. To kick off our conversation, we discuss some of the challenges associated with getting a true understanding of the scope of passive ownership across the US. Distinguishing between different approaches to investment, we begin to unpack Marco’s paper with Alex Chinco, titled ‘The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is’. We touch on the relevance of Grossman Stiglitz in 2024, pricing and reconstitution, and the ins and outs of employee stock and compensation. Using the case studies of huge global firms, we consider how to best accommodate passive demand. Lastly, as an index investor who does not own index funds, Marco shares his opinion on whether index funds have had a net positive or negative impact on financial markets. Tune in today to get a more dynamic view of the complex world of index funding and investment. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:45) Index funds, index and passive investments, and why Professor Marco Sammon is perfectly positioned to unpack these concepts.  (0:03:36) The challenges of understanding just how big passive ownership is in the US market.  (0:08:16) Distinguishing between partial investment, direct investment and passive funds.  (0:10:14) Important concepts on the closing auction and which indexes Marco focuses on.  (0:15:50) Defining the Grossman-Stiglitz framework and its validity in 2024.  (0:20:36) Evolving ideas around pricing and reconstitution over time.  (0:23:05) Why indexing is a fixed-point problem and how to measure market efficiency.  (0:32:19) Nuances of security demands around indexing and how it differs from other investors.   (0:38:02) Employee compensation and reverse causality as illustrated by Marco’s friend.  (0:42:10) Why it is important to distinguish between equal-weighted and value-weighted.  (0:44:13) How huge firms like Facebook and Tesla accommodate passive demand.  (0:48:19) Conditions that affect the responsiveness of firms in accommodating passive demand.   (0:51:13) The ‘Dead Reckoning’ metaphor to describe how we can know who is clearing the market. (01:02:22) Marco’s thoughts on whether index funds have had a net positive or negative impact.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Marco Sammon — https://marcosammon.com/ Marco Sammon on X — https://x.com/mcsammon19  Episode 302: Michael Green — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/302 Papers From Today’s Episode:  ‘The Passive-Ownership Share Is Double What You Think It Is’ — https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/double-what-you-think-it-is%20may%2023_3c1ae213-5aec-407d-b656-13e3822f0b8b.pdf ‘On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets’ — http://www.dklevine.com/archive/refs41908.pdf  ‘Capital Asset Prices With and Without Negative Holding’ — https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/nobelp/1990_003.html Do Demand Curves for Stock Slope Down? — https://www.jstor.org/stable/2328486/ 

How can the Rational Reminder Podcast get even better? By bringing back one of its most beloved voices, Dan Bortolotti, also known as "The Spud." In this exciting episode, hosts Ben Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Mark McGrath announce that Dan, the mind behind the Canadian Couch Potato Podcast, will now be a regular guest, contributing segments like "Bad Investment Advice" or "Ask the Spud.” Before Dan joins the conversation, we have an insightful discussion with Håkon Kavli, CIO of Reitan Kapital. Håkon shares how his team manages the wealth of one of Norway’s most prominent families, comparable to Canada’s Weston family. We discuss Reitan Kapital’s evidence-based investing approach, their robust methods for overcoming portfolio optimization challenges, and much more. Håkon also sheds light on their upcoming investing conference in Norway, featuring speakers like our very own, Cameron Passmore, and Marcos López de Prado. Following this, Dan kicks off his return by dissecting an article that advocates going all-in on the QQQ ETF in an RRSP, exposing the dangers of such a concentrated and risky strategy. He contrasts this approach with the wisdom of diversifying across global markets, using examples like Vanguard’s VEQT ETF, which offers exposure to over 13,000 stocks worldwide. Additionally, if you’re a financial advisor interested in joining a planning-focused, fiduciary firm like PWL Capital, we encourage you to reach out. Our team is growing, and we’re looking for like-minded individuals to join our mission. Tune in for a rich mix of expert advice, thoughtful discussions, and exciting announcements! Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:28) Announcements: a new regular guest, PWL’s call for like-minded advisors, and more. (0:04:15) Introducing Håkon Kavli, the Reitan family, and the origins of Reitan Kapital. (0:08:06) Reitan Kapital’s investment philosophy and asset allocation strategy. (0:10:29) The biggest differences between a Reitan Kapital portfolio and a market portfolio. (0:13:19) Capital market assumptions; how they influence Reitan Kapital's investment process. (0:20:38) Portfolio optimization challenges and Reitan’s robust methods for addressing these. (0:35:06) The role of private equity in a diversified portfolio and how it differs from public equity. (0:38:40) Fee structure significance in private equity investments and their impact on returns. (0:40:38) Risks associated with private equity and how they compare to public markets. (0:43:36) Reitan Kapital’s view on how private equity fits into a diversified portfolio. (0:49:08) Challenges of investing in private equity for retail investors.  (0:50:26) Why so many institutions and firms have substantial allocations to private markets. (0:53:58) An overview of the research Håkon is most excited about. (0:56:20) Details for the upcoming conference in Norway, featuring Cameron Passmore. (0:59:16) Dan’s Bad Investment Advice segment; going all-in on the QQQ ETF in an RRSP. (01:13:12) Our aftershow segment: listener feedback, our next meetup in Ottawa, a shoutout to Jason Pereira, and more.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Dan Bortolotti — https://www.canadianmoneysaver.ca/authors/dan-bortolotti Dan Bortolotti on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/ Canadian Couch Potato Blog — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/ Canadian Couch Potato Podcast — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/podcast/ Episode 308: Dan Bortolotti — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/308 Håkon Kavli on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/haakonkavli/ Reitan — https://reitan.no/no Reitan Kapital — http://www.reitankapital.no/ Weston — https://www.weston.ca/en/Home.aspx Marcos Lopez de Prado — https://www.orie.cornell.edu/faculty-directory/marcos-lopez-de-prado Antti Ilmanen — https://www.aqr.com/About-Us/OurFirm/Antti-Ilmanen Episode 224: Prof. Scott Cederburg — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/224 Sharpe ratio — https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sharperatio.asp Episode 210: Prof. Ludovic Phalippou — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/210 Reitan Kapital Conference — ‘An interesting RRSP idea – all in on QQQ?’ — https://www.tawcan.com/all-in-on-qqq/ VEQT Vanguard All-Equity ETF Portfolio — https://www.vanguard.ca/en/investor/products/products-group/etfs/VEQT Mark Mid Graph on X — Jason Pereira — https://jasonpereira.ca/ Papers From Today’s Episode:  ‘Estimating Private Equity Returns from Limited Partner Cash Flows’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2356553 ‘Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets’ — https://www.nber.org/papers/w9275 ‘What are Stock Investors' Actual Historical Returns? Evidence from Dollar-Weighted Returns’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=544142

Have you ever wondered how vibes can shape the economy? Or how the economy differs from financial markets? Or even how meme stocks operate? In this episode, we dive into the intersection of economic theory, social media, and public sentiment with Kyla Scanlon, an insightful economic commentator known for her relatable approach to explaining complex economic concepts. Kyla is a prolific content creator and founder of the financial education company, Bread. She produces a weekly newsletter, informative YouTube videos, the Let’s Appreciate Podcast, and (almost) daily short-form videos that break down complex economic concepts into engaging, bite-sized content. She’s also the author of In This Economy?: How Money & Markets Really Work, an indispensable guide to the “mad math and terrible terminology” of economics. Join us as we explore her unique vibecession concept, discuss the impact of social media-driven market movements, examine the housing crisis through the lens of generational wealth transfer and zoning laws, and much more. As Kyla explains it, economics isn't just about numbers. It’s about the stories we tell and how they influence the world around us. For a fun, fascinating, and highly accessible look at the state of the economy today, don’t miss this conversation with one of the internet’s favorite financial educators!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:19) Kyla’s definition of economics, who the main players are, and how it's understood. (0:05:04) How "vibes" influence the economy and intersect with economic theory and reality. (0:07:07) Money, its impact on the economy, and whether GDP reflects economic health. (0:09:45) Ways that expectations about inflation affect vibes in the economy. (0:10:50) Kyla’s take on housing, what people get wrong about it, and renting versus owning. (0:15:16) Surprisingly simple reasons for the housing crisis in the US and beyond. (0:17:48) Key distinctions between financial markets, the economy, and the stock market. (0:20:53) The difference between investing, speculating, and gambling. (0:22:08) GameStop, meme stocks, and the power of social media. (0:24:43) Reasons that “new era” thinking is dangerous and where crypto went wrong. (0:29:49) How to know when we’re in a recession and what a “vibecession” is. (0:33:52) Why US national debt isn’t always bad and why the Federal Reserve exists. (0:39:43) Problems that can arise from strictly adhering to economic beliefs. (0:42:53) Ways that the economy is connected to the mental health of individuals. (0:45:10) The impact of social media and media business models on vibes. (0:48:45) Kyla’s biggest learnings from her work and how she defines success.   Links From Today’s Episode:   Meet with PWL Capital — https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Kyla Scanlon — https://kylascanlon.com/ In This Economy?: How Money & Markets Really Work — https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/737854/in-this-economy-by-kyla-scanlon/ Let’s Appreciate Podcast — https://open.spotify.com/show/6ziXCBAojpLDKtexx8bxds TLDR Podcast — https://wealthsimple-tldr-podcast.simplecast.com/ Kyla Scanlon Newsletter — https://kyla.substack.com/ Kyla Scanlon on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/kylascanlon/ Kyla Scanlon on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@KylaScanlon/ Kyla Scanlon on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/kylascan/ Kyla Scanlon on TikTok — https://www.tiktok.com/@kylascan Kyla Scanlon on X — https://x.com/kylascan ‘The Vibecession: The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy’ — https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-vibecession-the-self-fulfilling Federal Reserve DFA (Distributional Financial Accounts) Chart — https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distribute/chart/ Federal Reserve SLOOS Report — https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos.htm Michael Mauboussin — https://www.michaelmauboussin.com/ FedNow — https://www.frbservices.org/financial-services/fednow National Bureau of Economic Research — https://www.nber.org/ Justin Wolfers on X — https://x.com/JustinWolfers ‘Why Gen Z is Rewriting the Rules of Work’ — https://www.fastcompany.com/90911399/kyla-scanlon-on-why-gen-z-is-redefining-the-concept-of-job-satisfaction ‘Loneliness as a "market opportunity”’ — https://youtu.be/UL9QiHYtajw Journal of Economic Teaching Symposium on Economics Teaching (JETSET) — https://journalofeconomicsteaching.org/symposium/ Kyla’s Tweet about #JETSET24 — https://x.com/kylascan/status/1820242645672738938   Books From Today’s Episode:   The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing — https://www.amazon.com/dp/1422184234    Papers From Today’s Episode:    ‘Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)’ — https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/why-do-we-think-that-inflation-expectations-matter-for-Inflation-and-should-we.htm ‘Negativity drives online news consumption’ — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/369301406_Negativity_drives_online_news_consumption  

Which account should you choose, a registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) or a Tax-free savings account (TFSA)? This is one of the most common decisions that Canadians must make when it comes to investing, but it will also elicit some of the most passionate responses. RRSPs especially get a lot of undue skepticism, with some even labelling it as a scam. Today we take a deep dive into both of these savings accounts, exploring the downsides and benefits of each, and how to decide which account is right for you based on your savings goals. With the help of Conquest Planning, a specialized, in-depth modelling tool, we look at a range of scenarios incorporating different variables, like income and family size, and break down our analysis regarding the RRSP vs. TFSA decision for each scenario. We discuss key factors to consider, including the basic personal amount tax credit, which allows RRSPs to act as a tax flow-through, and the guaranteed income supplement (GIS), which can impact retirement planning. Our conversation also examines how to approach family size and longevity, as RRSPs become more advantageous with longer lifespans. Join us today to learn about the benefits and flexibility of each of these accounts, the surprising ways RRSPs often outperform TFSAs, and find out which one is right for you! Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:20) An introduction to the RRSP vs. TFSA debate. (0:08:11) How we used the Conquest Planning tool and the scenarios we analyzed. (0:10:34) Taxation and contribution considerations and strategies for RRSPs and TFSAs. (0:20:11) An analysis of scenario one; $60,000 income and no children. (0:22:38) Basic personal amount tax credit; how it allows RRSPs to act as a tax flow-through. (0:27:20) The Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) and its impact on RRSP vs. TFSA analysis in different scenarios. (0:36:16) How GIS is tied to Old Age Security (OAS) payments. (0:41:12) An analysis of scenario two; a couple with two children, and the impact of the Canada Child Benefit on RRSP vs. TFSA contributions. (0:45:21) The impact of mortality and longevity on RRSP and TFSA in various scenarios. (0:47:01) Main takeaways from today’s scenarios and the advice our hosts would give to different clients regarding TFSAs and RRSPs. (0:50:50) Why RRSPs are of greater benefit if you live longer compared to TFSAs. (0:52:13) Our aftershow section: listener feedback, what Ben is working on regarding renting versus buying, the zombie apocalypse, and more.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Brady Plunkett on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/brady-plunkett-712489105/ Lukas Fleck on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/lukasfleck/ Flossing for your Finances, Personal Financial Strategies for Dentists — https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/9017236574029/WN_7O_JdvejRhmh-_LleBNRmQ#/registration Episode 317: Kevin Milligan — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/317   Papers From Today’s Episode:  ‘Tax Uncertainty and Retirement Savings Diversification’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2799288  

If you’re in the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), then you won’t want to miss today’s conversation with Canada's Chief Actuary, Assia Billig. Assia’s knowledge of the CPP is extensive, having joined the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCA) in 2008, where she was involved in the preparation of statutory actuarial reports on the Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security Program. She has served as Chief Actuary of the Government of Canada since 2019, and, before joining the OCA, she worked in private pension consulting. She is also a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries. Assia joins us today for a deep dive into the most common questions about the Canada Pension Plan, from the inner workings of its financial components to the quality of governance that drives it. Discover the world-leading topics she and her team investigate, the immense power and research behind their analysis, and why the CPP is set to be sustainable for the next 75 years. We also discuss the concerns some people have about the CPP’s longevity, before examining how the actuarial report on the sustainability of the CPP, conducted every three years, reliably addresses this. If today’s conversation with Canada’s chief actuary does not instill confidence and pride in Canada’s investment in our collective retirement, then we don’t know what will! Tune in, to hear all of Assia’s keen insights and discover why she is unequivocally the best person to talk about the sustainability of the CPP. Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00:18) Introducing today’s guest, Assia Billig and the Canada Pension Plan (CPP). (0:04:53) What the main function of the Office of the Chief Actuary is. (0:06:28) The independence of Assia’s office and the work that they do. (0:07:09) Unpacking the main purpose of the actuarial report on the Canada Pension Plan. (0:09:22) Changes that the report triggers to contribution or benefit rates. (0:13:04) Main revenue sources for the CPP and how base CPP benefit payments are funded. (0:14:56) Base CPP’s funded status and how funding differs for additional CPP. (0:20:32) The sustainability of base and additional CPP and how sustainability is measured. (0:23:22) Primary assumptions that go into sustainability analysis at the high level. (0:27:31) Estimating expected returns for assets managed by CPP investments. (0:30:37) The plan’s level of sensitivity to lower realized returns and other variables. (0:35:22) How lower overall economic growth and inequality affect the plan’s sustainability. (0:37:15) Measuring the impact of variables like climate change and other catastrophic events. (0:43:01) When the minimum contribution rate exceeds the current legislated contribution rate. (0:44:12) Assia’s response to people who are skeptical of the CPP's future sustainability.   Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Assia Billig — https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/oca Assia Billig on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/assia-billig-9b861587/?originalSubdomain=ca

Today, we sit down with Professor Kevin Milligan to unpack the recent capital gain changes and the complexities of the Canadian tax system. Kevin Milligan is a Professor of Economics at the Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia. He holds positions as a Scholar-in-Residence at the C.D. Howe Institute and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. A two-time recipient of the Purvis Prize, Professor Milligan’s work is recognized for its significant contributions to Canadian economic policy. His research focuses on public and labour economics, particularly concerning the economics of children and the elderly, along with tax and labour market policy issues. In our conversation, we dive deep into capital gains tax, the progressivity of the tax system, and the distribution of tax burdens among different income groups. We explore the intricate details of who bears the burden of corporate taxes, the impact of recent capital gains changes, and the intriguing relationship between income and longevity in Canada. Professor Milligan also shares insights from his research on longevity and the implications of tax policies on economic behaviour. Join us and uncover the truths about Canada's tax system, capital gains changes, and their profound impacts on Canadians. Tune in now!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:07:20) Background about Professor Milligan and an outline of today’s topic. (0:10:10) Complexities behind tax policy and recent capital gains changes in Canada. (0:14:22) Distribution of tax rates in Canada and how progressive the tax system is. (0:20:12) Analysis of how the Canadian tax system is applied to the top 1% of earners. (0:22:28) The theory behind capital income and how it relates to personal income tax. (0:26:40) Explanation of tax integration and how income tax accounts for corporate taxes. (0:29:53) Impact of the capital gains tax changes and Canada’s overall tax progressivity. (0:40:55) How the new capital gains inclusion rate affects integration for incorporated business. (0:46:32) The interplay between corporate investment, capital taxation, and productivity. (0:54:11) Historical changes in tax rates and the shift of average tax rates over time. (0:57:14) His perspective on the increase of the capital gains inclusion rate in Canada. (0:58:35) Explore the correlation between income levels and longevity in Canada.  (1:03:30) Geographic longevity differences and policy implications for longevity. (1:07:55) Implications of longevity trends on personal financial planning. (1:13:24) Takeaways from a past episode, an update on Mark’s book, and more.    Links From Today’s Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p  Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder  Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Professor Kevin Milligan — https://sites.google.com/view/kevin-milligan/home Professor Kevin Milligan on X — https://x.com/kevinmilligan The Vancouver School of Economics — https://economics.ubc.ca/ C.D. Howe Institute — https://www.cdhowe.org/ National Bureau of Economic Research — https://www.nber.org/ Canadian Tax Journal — https://www.ctf.ca/EN/EN/Publications/CTJ.aspx Episode 316: Andrew Chen — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/316   Papers From Today’s Episode:    ‘How Progressive is the Canadian Personal Income Tax? A Buffett Curve Analysis’ — https://utpjournals.press/doi/10.3138/cpp.2021-087 ‘The Evolution of Longevity: Evidence from Canada’ — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/caje.12497

Are you curious about the hidden factors driving your investment decisions? Today’s guest is Andrew Chen, a Principal Economist at the Federal Reserve Board who focuses on monetary policy and financial stability. Published in leading journals, his research informs key policy decisions and helps shape the Federal Reserve’s strategy for managing economic challenges effectively. In this episode, Andrew delves into the intricacies of meta-research and asset pricing, focusing on cross-sectional asset pricing predictors, replication, and out-of-sample performance in factor investing. We discuss the significance of open-source data and transparency, highlighting Andrew's creation of the Open Source Asset Pricing project, an indispensable and comprehensive dataset for asset pricing predictors. We also address the challenges of replicating financial studies, publication bias, data mining, and false discovery rates, with Andrew offering practical insights on how these factors impact financial research and investment decisions. For actionable insights that could refine your investment strategies and enhance your understanding of financial research, don’t miss this fascinating conversation!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:43) What an asset pricing factor is and how it differs from a predictor. (0:04:25) Three plausible explanations for why cross-sectional predictors exist. (0:05:45) Insight into Andrew’s Open Source Asset Pricing project and why it’s so important. (0:09:49) Where the results of his research diverge from other papers on the subject. (0:11:42) How the returns on anomalies in his data sample change post-publication. (0:12:33) Implications of this research for the “replication crisis” in cross-sectional asset pricing. (0:14:14) Challenges of false discovery rates, publication bias, and out-of-sample returns. (0:18:37) The effect of transaction costs on expected returns from factor investing. (0:22:02) Problems with estimating factor expected returns using historical data. (0:26:08) A big-picture view of the factors with the strongest investable expected returns. (0:29:12) The relative value of peer-reviewed factors with strong theoretical underpinnings. (0:35:13) Whether or not machine learning can be useful for asset pricing research. (0:37:39) Practical advice for using financial research to inform your investment decisions. (0:40:08) Andrew’s take on the current state of cross-sectional asset pricing. (0:42:58) The simple way that Andrew defines success for himself.   Links From Today’s Episode:   Rational Reminder on Apple Podcasts — https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Andrew Chen — https://sites.google.com/site/chenandrewy/ Federal Reserve Board — https://www.federalreserve.gov/ Andrew Chen on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-chen-63394169/ Andrew Chen on X — https://x.com/achenfinance Open Source Asset Pricing Project — https://www.openassetpricing.com/ Center for Research in Security Prices — https://www.crsp.org/   Books From Today’s Episode:    The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: An Evolutionary Approach to Understanding Financial System Dynamics — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0199681147   Papers From Today’s Episode:    Andrew Chen, Tom Zimmermann, ’Open Source Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing’— https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3604626 Kewei Hou, Chen Xue, Lu Zhang, ’Replicating Anomalies’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3275496 R. David McLean, Jeffrey Pontiff, ’Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability?’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2156623 Ilia D. Dichev, ’Is the Risk of Bankruptcy a Systematic Risk?’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=99868 Campbell R. Harvey, Yan Liu, Caroline Zhu, ‘…and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2249314 Andrew Chen, Mihail Velikov, ‘Zeroing in on the Expected Returns of Anomalies’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3073681 Andrew Chen, Alejandro Lopez-Lira, Tom Zimmermann, ‘Does Peer-Reviewed Research Help Predict Stock Returns?’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4308069  

During this episode, we welcome back Eduardo Repetto, Chief Investment Officer of Avantis Investors. In his leadership capacity, he directs research design and the implementation of strategies and oversees the investment team and marketing initiatives. Our conversation kicks off with Edoardo’s explanation of how Avantis systemizes active management before we dive into strategies for launching in Europe and beyond. He weighs in on the most significant capacity issues that people face today, offering solutions to tweak your approach. We touch on what makes Avantis strategies preferable for advisors and Eduardo shares his insights on the future of small-cap value strategies for emerging markets. We discuss short-term reversals, towing the line between growth and value and factors that should inform asset allocation before diving deeper into small-cap value in the US and Canada. Tune in today to hear more.    Key Points From This Episode:   (0:05:51) What sets Avantis Investors apart from other investment firms.  (0:09:26) Five strategies for launching in Europe starting with free and equity UCITS. (0:14:00) Accessing UCITS and adapting strategies in accordance with currencies, geographical regulations and restrictions.  (0:22:49) The most significant capacity issue: an inability to invest cashflows.  (0:27:59) Feedback from the advisor community on why they are choosing Avantis strategies.  (0:32:43) Eduardo’s view on the future potential for the emerging markets small cap value strategy.  (0:35:58) Improvements and adaptations to portfolio implementation at Avantis since 2019. (0:39:01) The controversial nature of short-term reversals and advice for investors thinking about growth and value. (0:44:40) What should inform asset-allocation decision-making. (0:45:46) The potential of expanding into a Canadian base.  (0:50:16) Mark’s thoughts on small-cap value in the US and Canada.    Quotes:   “We have to adapt to the regulatory framework. But the strategies are the same. We manage the strategies in the same way, with the same people, with the same philosophy.” —  Eduardo Repetto (0:17:44) “Just expand the offering. Anywhere we go, we do the same because that's the right thing to do. That's the right thing to help people that trust you on day one.” —  Eduardo Repetto (0:21:52)   “So, if you think about our valuation, we are using today's profits as a proxy for future profits. Can you improve that proxy? Can you have something better to say, about not level, but changes in level?” —  Eduardo Repetto (0:41:16)   Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Eduardo Repetto on Linkedin — https://www.linkedin.com/in/eduardo-repetto-653231155/ Avantis Investors — https://www.avantisinvestors.com/ Episode 313 — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/313 Econompic  —  https://econompicdata.blogspot.com/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP