Dominoes: The Global Implications of China's Domestic Politics

In this episode Garrison speaks with Rory Truex of Princeton about China's domestic politics, the political nature of Xi Jinping, the domestic perceptions of the CCP, the threat of a Taiwan invasion, and the appropriate response from U.S. policy makers in this new Great Power era. Rory Truex is an Assistant Professor in Princeton's Department of Politics and Princeton's School of Public and International Affairs. His research focuses on Chinese politics and theories of authoritarian rule. His book Making Autocracy Work: Representation and Responsiveness in Modern China investigates the nature of representation in authoritarian systems, specifically the politics surrounding China's National People's Congress (NPC). He argues that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is engineering a system of “representation within bounds” in the NPC, fostering information revelation but silencing political activism. Original data on deputy backgrounds and behaviors is used to explore the nature of representation, policymaking, and incentives in this constrained system. He is currently working on a new set of projects on repression, human rights, and dissent in contemporary China. His research has been published in the American Political Science Review, Journal of Politics, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Comparative Political Studies, China Quarterly, among other journals. You can watch Rory Truex's "Talks at Google" lecture from 2018: here. More information on his publications and research can be found: here. Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations, as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States. He has had the privilege of interviewing some of the leading policymakers, thinkers, and experts of our time, including Robert B. Zoellick, Elbridge Colby, Richard Fontaine, Andrew Roberts, Ivan Briscoe, Vishnu Prakash, Rajiv Bhatia, Aparne Pande, Mohammed Soliman, Rory Truex and others. Guest opinions are their own. Originally recorded March 15th, 2023.

On this episode, Garrison is joined by Mohammed Soliman of the Middle East Institute to discuss his vision for the Middle East.  Or more specifically, why he has argued that the Middle East as an American strategic concept should be replaced with his concept of "West Asia".  The two discuss the intellectual origins and foundations of West Asia as a historically relevant framework built on Indo-Abrahamic transregional order.  Mohammed further explained how this new order is being developed and deployed into the new "I2U2" group of nations, how the Abraham Accords paved the way for these ideas, and what Iran and China, respectively, will do about these developments (and what could happen next). Mohammed's two landmark publications outlining his vision for West Asia and Indo-Abrahamic relations can be found here at the MEI, and in National Interest. Mohammed Soliman is a Non-Resident Scholar with MEI's Cyber Program and Egypt Program, and a Senior Associate at McLarty Associates’ Middle East and North Africa Practice. His work focuses on the intersection of technology, geopolitics, and business in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Mohammed frequently appears on Arabic- and English-language television to provide commentary on unfolding events in the Middle East. A native of Cairo, Mohammed started his career as an engineer and worked as a consultant, providing strategic advisory services for local and international businesses. In Washington, DC, he has also served as a country analyst for the Peace Tech Lab at the US Institute of Peace, as a Huffington Fellow at Georgetown’s Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, and as a Junior Centennial Fellow at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service. Mohammed is a 2017 recipient of the Open Society Foundation's Civil Society Leadership Award. In 2021, he was selected by the Middle East Policy Council (MEPC) as one of their 40 Under 40 Professionals Making a Difference in US-Middle East Relations. That same year, Mohammed was named to the Center for Strategic and International Studies' (CSIS) 2021 U.S. National Security & Foreign Affairs Leadership List, which honors the contributions of diverse practitioners in U.S. national security and foreign policy. Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States.  He has had the privilege of interviewing some of the leading policymakers and experts of our time, including Robert B. Zoellick, Elbridge Colby, Richard Fontaine, Andrew Roberts, Ivan Briscoe, Vishnu Prakash, Rajiv Bhatia, Aparne Pande, and many others. Guest opinions are their own. Originally recorded Aug. 8, 2022.

In this episode, Garrison is joined by Ali Wyne of the Eurasia Group, to discuss his landmark new book America's Great Power Opportunity: Revitalizing U.S. Foreign Policy To Meet The Challenges Of Strategic Competition.  The two discuss Wyne's background in the field, how he came to be interested with, at the forefront of, foreign policy discussions.  He discusses the meaning of great power opportunity, the benefits and drawbacks of historical analogies in foreign policymaking, and the role of human agency in history.  They also talk about the need for democratic revitalization at home, and renewing America's unique strengths abroad (and what those strengths are, in light of Russia and China). They close by discussing key strategies for escaping the reactionary trap of great powers, and implementing the principles outlined in his book for great power relations, particularly "Pursu[ing] cooperative possibilities that can temper the destabilizing effects of great-power competition." Ali Wyne is a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's Global Macro-Geopolitics practice, focusing on US-China relations and great-power competition. He has served as a junior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a research assistant at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and a policy analyst at the RAND Corporation. Ali has also been a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a nonresident fellow at the Modern War Institute. He received dual bachelor's degrees in management science and political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and earned his master in public policy from the Harvard Kennedy School. Ali is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a David Rockefeller fellow with the Trilateral Commission, and a security fellow with the Truman National Security Project. He also serves as a member of Foreign Policy for America's Board of Directors and as a member of the American Pakistan Foundation's Leadership Council. An avid coffee drinker, Ali continues to expand his collection of coffee mugs, cups, and tumblers. Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States.  He h as had the privilege of interviewing some of the leading policymakers and experts of our time, including Robert B. Zoellick, Elbridge Colby, Richard Fontaine, Andrew Roberts, Ivan Briscoe, Vishnu Prakash, Rajiv Bhatia, Aparne Pande, and many others. Guest opinions are their own. Originally recorded July 15, 2022

On this first of three "From the Archives" specials, The New Diplomatist is proud to present a never-before-released episode from March 30th of 2022 with Greg Lawson, discussing Russia's War in light of history and grand strategy.  In the sweeping conversation, Greg and Garrison trace the present war in Ukraine through the lens of theory and statecraft, past and present, to yield a fascinating dialogue on the deeper geopolitical realities and forces at work in the conflict raging in Eastern Europe.  From Kissinger to Kennan, the Mongols to Taiwan, its a discussion you won't want to miss. Greg R. Lawson is a Contributing Analyst at WikiStrat; his 2014 article "Avoiding America's Ultimate Geopolitical Nightmare" published in The National Interest was an insightful and landmark text on the burgeoning Sino-Russian axis (click here to read). He is also a Research Fellow at the Buckeye Institute; his opinions have been widely circulated in the foreign policy community amongst thought leaders in the field, including by Elbridge Colby (author of the 2018 National Defense Strategy; author of Strategy of Denial).  He is a graduate of Ohio State University. Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States. Guest opinions are their own. 

In this episode, Garrison was joined by Elbridge Colby, author of The Strategy of Denial and key architect of the 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy. They discuss an overview of Colby’s landmark book and its strategic approach to the rise of China and maintenance of U.S. national defense. In light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the two discuss the return of military hard power to European security and world order, including the drastic shift in Berlin and other European capitols towards enhanced defense, and implications for the idea of increased burden sharing. The position of denial is contrasted to the historic trend towards neo-conservative posture on one side or neo-isolationism on the other. The two discuss the hypothetical fait accompli strategy of Beijing towards a war with Taiwan, and whether or not this describes Vladimir Putin’s intended plan for Ukraine (and lessons that holds for the PRC). Their discussion also focuses on potential pitfalls for US deterrence of a potential conflict in Taiwan given China's greater economic strength vis a vis Russia; the need to balance support for Europe while maintaining a clear higher priority for Washington to focus on China as the biggest national security challenge. The role of scarcity in defense strategy is discussed, with a key focus on the need to differentiate responses based on region, and to accommodate various allied and partner responses based on the immediacy of the respective regional threats. Further discussion focuses on the nature of the Russian military power in a ‘limited war’ and its implications for Moscow’s power projection capabilities; the warning the present crisis presents to Taipei (and questions surrounding stirring Taiwanese commitment to defense); whether taking Taiwan would be harder or easier based on geography when compared to Ukraine; and they close out the discussion on the Biden Administration's response and what must be improved towards both China and Russia. Colby’s article from TIME Magazine can be found here: https://tinyurl.com/colbyTIME Elbridge Colby is co-founder and principal of The Marathon Initiative, a policy initiative focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition. He is the author of The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict (Yale University Press), which The Wall Street Journal selected as one of the top ten books of 2021. Previously, Colby was from 2018-2019 the Director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security. Before that, he served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development from 2017-2018. In that role, he served as the lead official in the development and rollout of the Department’s preeminent strategic planning guidance, the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) which shifted the DoD’s focus to the challenges to U.S. military superiority and interests posed by China in particular followed by Russia, prioritizing restoring the Joint Force’s warfighting edge against these major power competitors. Prior to this, Colby was from 2014 to 2017 the Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security and held numerous roles across the federal government. Colby is a graduate of Harvard College and Yale Law School. Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States. Guest opinions are their own. Originally recorded 2/28/22

In this episode, Garrison is joined by Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, to discuss a wide range of topics about the Ukraine Crisis. The two discuss the history of NATO expansion and Ukrainian orientation as a few of the factors influencing the timing of the present crisis; the stance of the West; and the strategic motivations behind Russia’s current aggressive posture. The two also discuss the future of potential NATO membership for Kiev, whether or not there is “trade space” regarding the subject of implied Ukrainian neutrality and so forth. They take a careful look at the questions surrounding Germany’s stance under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and what future (if any) there is for Macron’s view of Europe as a “strategic balancer” (exercising strategic autonomy with French leadership) in light of the current security challenges facing the continent. And how has domestic politics influenced London, Berlin, and Paris in their recent stances? In light of a potential Russian invasion the two discuss possible impacts of sanctions on Moscow and what responses (such as cyberattacks) Putin may undertake in retaliation. Most importantly, Fontaine examines the implications for the “pivot to Asia” if Putin green lights an invasion of Ukraine, and what future U.S. priorities will be in light of a renewed sense of danger in Eastern Europe. The two close by discussing what grade that Fontaine would give to the Biden administration’s handling of the Ukraine crisis and how they might improve that response. Richard Fontaine is CEO of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). He served as President of CNAS from 2012-2019 and previously as a Senior Advisor and Senior Fellow. He also served as foreign policy advisor to Senator John McCain for more than five years. He has worked at the State Department, the National Security Council and on the staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Mr. Fontaine served as foreign policy advisor to the McCain 2008 presidential campaign and, following the election, as the minority deputy staff director on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Prior to this, he served as associate director for Near Eastern affairs at the National Security Council (NSC) from 2003-04. He also worked in the NSC’s Asian Affairs directorate, where he covered Southeast Asian issues. During his time at the State Department, Mr. Fontaine worked in the office of former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and in the department’s South Asia bureau, working on issues related to India, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Mr. Fontaine began his foreign policy career as a staff member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, focusing on the Middle East and South Asia. He also spent a year teaching English in Japan. A native of New Orleans, Mr. Fontaine graduated summa cum laude with a B.A. in International Relations from Tulane University. He also holds a M.A. in International Affairs from the John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, and he attended Oxford University. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and is an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States. All guest opinions are their own and not that of The New Diplomatist podcast formally. If you enjoyed the episode please subscribe and leave a review for feedback. Follow The New Diplomatist on social media for latest updates. Thank you for listening. Originally Recorded Feb 7. 2022

On this episode, Garrison takes a deep dive into the view from Venezuela with the deeply knowledgable Ivan Briscoe, Program Director for Latin America and the Caribbean from the International Crisis Group. The two discuss the current state of Venezuelan affairs, tracing the counters of the rivalry between Nicolas Maduro and Juan Guaido with their respective claims to the Presidency. Is Juan Guaido losing his sense of legitimacy in the eyes of the opposition forces and the general public? They discuss the failed effort by the Trump administration to topple the Maduro regime, the after-effects of that attempt, and the present outlook for the Venezuelan economy, particular its oil economy and its interactions with China and Iran. They discuss the declining influence of American sanctions, and the condition of the multi-million Venezuelan refugee community inside neighboring Columbia. Briscoe considers the possibility of a Russian build up in the Latin American region with Venezuela as a possible area of focus. And they close by talking through what policies the United States should change in relation to the regional situation in both Columbia and Venezuela. Ivan Briscoe joined Crisis Group in June 2016 as Program Director for Latin America and the Caribbean. He has worked on Latin American politics, conflict and crime since 1996. Before joining Crisis Group, Ivan worked as a senior research fellow in the Clingendael Institute of the Netherlands and in the Foundation for International Relations and Foreign Dialogue (FRIDE) in Spain, where he specialized in the study of illicit networks in Latin America, new forms of armed violence and the effects of inequality. Prior to that, he worked for over a decade as a journalist and editor in Argentina, France and Spain, where he edited the English edition of El Paнs. He has carried out fieldwork-based research in various Latin American countries, including Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Peru and Venezuela, and has written for numerous media in the region and in Europe. He graduated from Oxford University with a First Class Honour’s Degree in Politics, Philosophy and Economics, studied as a Frank Knox Fellow at Harvard University, and also holds a Master’s Degree in Development from the Complutense University of Madrid. Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States. All guest opinions are their own and not that of The New Diplomatist podcast formally. If you enjoyed the episode please subscribe and leave a review for feedback. Follow The New Diplomatist on social media for latest updates. Thank you for listening.

From a new Asiatic superpower in China and a rogue state in North Korea, to domestic political change and an rapidly aging population, 2022 will be a pivotal year for Japan’s national security. On this episode, Garrison is joined by Dr. Stephen Nagy, an expert on Japan to discuss these important topics. The two discuss a wide range of subjects, beginning with the political-security implications of the newly minted Kishida administration. They also discuss the historical roots and contemporary complications of Japan’s pacifist constitution which drive Tokyo’s emphasis on the use of holistic foreign policy soft power even as it maintains a pseudo-military “Self-Defense Force”. How Japan will balance defending against the militaristic assertiveness of China’s new power projection strategies (including the issue of Taiwan, maritime security, etc) with the economic reality of the vital level of trade with Beijing is also discussed. The state of Tokyo-Washington relations in the Biden era both in a strategic and political sense; Japan’s response to the North Korean nuclear threat, and the evolution of state immigration policy in the face of an aging population round out their discussion. Stephen has been a Senior Associate Professor at the Department of Politics and International Studies at the International Christian University since September 2014. Concurrently, he is a Senior Fellow at the MacDonald Laurier Institute, a Research fellow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI); a Senior Fellow with the East Asia Security Centre (EASC); & a Visiting Fellow with the Japan Institute for International Affairs (JIIA). He was selected as a Distinguished Fellow for the Asia Pacific Foundation from 2017-2020. He serves as the Director of Policy Studies for the Yokosuka Council of Asia Pacific Studies (YCAPS) spear heading their Indo-Pacific Policy Dialogue Series and as a Governor for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Japan (CCCJ). Prior to returning to Tokyo, he was an Assistant Professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong from Dec. 2009 -Jan. 2014. He obtained his Ph.D. from Waseda University, Japan in International Relations in Dec. 2008. Stephen is published widely in peer-reviewed international journals such as China Perspectives, East Asia, the Journal of Asian Politics and History and the International Studies Review on topics related to trade, nationalism and China-Japan relations. He has also published in think tank and commercial outlets such as the China Economic Quarterly and the World Commerce Review on trade and political risk. He is also a frequent political/ economic and security commentator on Japan-China-Korea-US relations in Japanese and international media outlets such as the New York Times, BBC, CNN, SCMP, WSJ, The Japan Times, The National Post, cNBC, Al Jazeera, Channel News Asia, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, etc. Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he earned a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude) at Liberty University in the United States. He formed The New Diplomatist from scratch and today it is in the top 10% of all podcasts globally, including top ten placements on government charts in ten countries across Europe and the Indo-Pacific. All guest opinions are their own and not that of The New Diplomatist podcast formally. If you enjoyed the episode please subscribe and leave a review for feedback. Follow The New Diplomatist on social media for latest updates. Thank you for listening.

In this episode, Garrison is joined by Dr. Jerry Hendrix, Vice President of the Telemus Group, retired U.S. Navy officer, and a widely respected naval expert. The two discuss Dr. Hendrix’s recent Foreign Policy magazine article: “Sea Power Makes Great Powers” (click here to read: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/10/us-navy-sea-power-china-decline-military-strategy/).  The discussion considers the nature of naval power as a reflection of a great power’s rise or decline, and specifically the need for the U.S. Navy to recover both quantitive and qualitative strength, escape the ‘divest to invest’ trap that historically degraded British naval supremacy, rebuild national naval shipbuilding and repair capacity, and prioritize naval development for national security. Historical examples from Congressman Carl Vinson to President Ronald Reagan era subsidy reductions inform the discussion throughout. Also, they discuss the nature of hypersonic weapons as a new ‘Sputnik Moment’ for American military research and scientific development. They close with a tribute to the man Dr. Hendrix believes is the most important figure in American naval development. Dr. Hendrix is a vice president at the Telemus Group and the author of To Provide and Maintain a Navy. He is a retired Navy officer with experience in strategy, force structure planning, carrier strike group operations, and anti-submarine warfare. Outside of his military experience, Dr. Hendrix has held posts with senior staffs including the Chief of Naval Operations Executive Panel, the Secretary of Defense’s Office of Force Development, and the Office of Net Assessment where he served as the Senior Military Assistant to its Director. Prior to joining the Telemus Group, Dr. Hendrix served as the Director of the defense program at the bi-partisan Center for a New American Security where he authored a number of cutting-edge studies on the need for a larger Navy, the evolution of the carrier air wing, the long range heavy bomber, and the growing gap in anti-submarine capabilities in the North Atlantic. While on active duty he served as an instructor naval flight officer in the P-3C Orion aircraft as well as a Tactical Action Officer and an Air Operations Officer on nuclear and light amphibious aircraft carriers. He supported combat operations in operations Desert Storm, Allied Force, Deliberate Forge, and Iraqi Freedom. In addition, he served as the Director of the Secretary of the Navy’s Advisory Panel and as Director of the Naval History and Heritage Command. He holds graduate degrees from the Naval Postgraduate School and Harvard University as well as a doctorate from King’s College, London. Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he is a Ph.D. candidate in Public Policy - Foreign Policy at Liberty University in the United States where he also received a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude). All guest opinions are their own and not that of The New Diplomatist podcast formally. If you enjoyed the episode please subscribe and leave a review for feedback. Follow The New Diplomatist on social media for latest updates. Thank you for listening.

In this episode, Garrison is rejoined by returning guest and renowned maritime security analyst, Dr. Collin Koh.  The two embark on an informative discussion regarding the maritime strategic implications of the AUKUS deal to the Indo-Pacific, from why nuclear submarines are significant, to the nature of Australia as a geopolitical linchpin in Washington’s counter-China strategy. They also discuss Russia’s testing of a sub-launched Zircon hypersonic missile, how this fits into the historical Soviet-Russian naval strategy to counter the United States, and what this class of weapons means for the future of networked fleet defenses in space and cyberspace specifically, and naval competition more broadly, in the Indo-Pacific. To read the article mentioned in the episode recently published from The Diplomat Magazine interviewing Collin, click here: https://tinyurl.com/diplomatarticle5 Dr. Collin Koh is Research Fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies which is a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, based in Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He has research interests on naval affairs in the Indo-Pacific, focusing on Southeast Asia. Collin has published several op-eds, policy- and academic journal articles as well as chapters for edited volumes covering his research areas. He has also taught at Singapore Armed Forces professional military education and training courses. Besides research and teaching, Collin also contributes his perspectives to various local and international media outlets and participates in activities with geopolitical risks consultancies. Garrison Moratto is the founder and host of The New Diplomatist Podcast; he is a Ph.D. candidate in Public Policy - Foreign Policy at Liberty University in the United States where he also received a M.S. of International Relations as well as a B.S. in Government: Public Administration (Summa Cum Laude). All guest opinions are their own and not that of The New Diplomatist podcast formally. If you enjoyed the episode please subscribe and leave a review for feedback. Follow The New Diplomatist on social media for latest updates. Thank you for listening.